Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Russia and Eastern Europe Page 16 of 17

Ukraine Counterattacks

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On April 13, 2014

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Pro-Russian “militias” seized the city of Slovyansk, now Ukraine is attacking to take it back.

This is a profoundly dangerous situation.  On the one hand, if the Ukrainian government had done nothing, Russia would have de-facto control over the East.  But Putin has repeatedly warned Ukraine not to attack pro-Russian militias.

And, if these pro-Russian militias include Russian troops, well Russia really can’t afford to have any captured, can they?  “On a leave of absence” explanations only go so far.

If Putin gives the word, a very large Russian army will overrun Ukraine’s East.  If Ukraine does not immediately back down in such a situation, Russia is more than capable of overrunning the entire country.

NATO can then either do nothing but mouth impotent threats or can itself intervene militarily.  NATO does not have enough forces in position to win the initial clash, but would certainly win a longer conventional war.  Victory by either side, however, risks a nuclear war, as generations of Cold War planners understood.

Ukraine’s orientation to Europe, and the opening of its economy to destruction by the IMF and looting by Westerners, is not a cause worth risking nuclear war over.

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“Pro-Russian Militias” Seize Police Stations and a City

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On April 12, 2014

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I guess Vladimir Putin really objects to the current Ukrainian regime:

Pro-Russian activists carrying automatic weapons seized government buildings in Slaviansk and set up barricades on the outskirts of the city. Official buildings in several neighboring towns were also attacked.

Imagine that.  I’m sure that some of them are activists.  The rest are very likely “activists”.

Ukraine is blustering about using armed force to kick them out, but if they do, they’ll kill some, and that will give the large army on their border a pretext to march in to “protect” Russians in the Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine refuses to pay higher prices for natural gas, is 2 billion in arrears anyway, and the Russians are saying “well, the contact says that if you don’t make payments in time, we can raise the price.”

Sub voce, of course, the message is “we offered you subsidized gas, and you decided to make nice with the IMF, Europe and America.  Get them to pay for your gas, we don’t subsidize countries hostile to us.”

Now all this could be prelude to invasion, but it could also be prelude to negotiations.  Russia wants a Federal Ukraine with regions having great autonomy.  Going to the table with the message “we already OWN the Eastern Ukraine, it’s federalization or we officially annex it” is a strong bargaining position.

Possession is, as they say, 90% of the “law”.

The West can either accept what Russia is offering, or it can ramp up sanctions.  Be clear, sanctions could really hurt Russia, but they will hurt the EU as well, both those countries that rely on Russia for natural gas, and those who launder Russian money (London, in particular.)

Of course, the US probably doesn’t mind if Europe gets hurt, and American commercial interests are pushing to be allowed to sell natural gas to Europe.  The fracking boom isn’t going as well as its propaganda, and a bigger market would be nice.

Hard sanctions, though, will push Russia hard into China’s orbit, ensuring that when the real confrontation between the West and China occurse, that Russia, which is still a powerful nation, rich with natural resources China needs, back China, not the West.

In geopolitical terms, the West has acted like idiots.  The status quo of a Ukraine which was somewhat more in Moscow’s pocket than Brussels or DC was not harmful to the West, they will lose much to gain part of the Ukraine than it is worth.

Again, the real threat to American hegemony is no longer Russia, it is China.  American foreign policy which does not orient around this fact is jejeune and idiotic.

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Russia claims American Mercs are in the Ukraine

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On April 7, 2014

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Not a good idea, if true:

“We are particularly concerned that the operation involves some 150 American mercenaries from a private company Greystone Ltd., dressed in the uniform of the [Ukrainian] special task police unit Sokol,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Organizers and participants of such incitement are assuming a huge responsibility for threatening upon the rights, freedoms and lives of Ukrainian citizens as well as the stability of Ukraine.”

Remember when US mercs got strung up in Fallujah?  Using Americans, even “deniable” Americans, could blow up badly.

Humor in the Ukraine

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On April 7, 2014

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As you may be aware, it seems that protestors have seized government buildings in Eastern Ukraine and demanded a referendum on joining Russia.  Ukraine claims that these protests have Russian backing.  Now the protestors in Donetsk have declared independence and declared they will hold a referendum on joining Russia.

Quelle Horreur!

It is wonderful that the current, Ukrainian government, which was certainly, absolutely, not installed by protestors seizing legislative buildings, and was definitely not backed by the US, no sirree, is in a position to be outraged by government buildings being seized and outside interference in the Ukraine’s business.*

And how dare Eastern Ukrainians demand a vote on whether or not they should be able to join Russia.  There was certainly no vote on their current government.  No vote on whether to cut pensions in half, as the Ukrainian government plans, or to increase natural gas prices by 50%.  Why should they have a vote?

This material, it writes itself.

Oh, and the US is threatening further sanctions, because it is determined to expand NATO right up to Russia’s border and force Russia into long-term, hard alliance with China, so that the between them they have both enough manufacturing and enough natural resources to form an bloc independent of the West, and peel off most of Latin America and Africa.

Notes

* I doubt they have the ability to hold such a referendum, since they don’t actually control the local government.

** For those who might have been in a news blackout, of course the current Ukrainian government was formed, by, oh, protestors forcing their way into a legislature, seizing arms from government arms depots, votes by legislators while protestors who had seized weapons and forced their way into the legislature stood over them; and, of course, with the energetic backing of the US, and probably of some European countries. Given the precedent, the complaints by Washington and Kiev are highly amusing.)

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The First Real Russian Retaliation for American Sanctions

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On April 4, 2014

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It starts:

Rosneft has recently signed a series of big contracts for oil exports to China and is close to signing a “jumbo deal” with Indian companies. In both deals, there are no US dollars involved. Reuters reports, that Russia is close to entering a goods-for-oil swap transaction with Iran that will give Rosneft around 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day to sell in the global market. The White House and the russophobes in the Senate are livid and are trying to block the transaction because it opens up some very serious and nasty scenarios for the petrodollar. If Sechin decides to sell this Iranian oil for rubles, through a Russian exchange, such move will boost the chances of the “petroruble” and will hurt the petrodollar.

It can be said that the US sanctions have opened a Pandora’s box of troubles for the American currency. The Russian retaliation will surely be unpleasant for Washington, but what happens if other oil producers and consumers decide to follow the example set by Russia? During the last month, China opened two centers to process yuan-denominated trade flows, one in London and one in Frankfurt. Are the Chinese preparing a similar move against the greenback? We’ll soon find out.

The US has, to use the phrase du jour, a great deal of “privilege” because the US dollar is the standard unit of trade, most significantly, trade in oil.  If you get frozen out of the dollar, you get frozen out of a large part of the world economy.  American sanctions can virtually destroy a country, as banks, even non-American banks, won’t do business with a country the Treasury department has forbidden doing business with.

Breaking that—moving to a multilateral world, or to a world where trading in Yuan is just as acceptable, goes a long way to breaking American power. In general, the Europeans will follow the US lead, so moving to the Euro provides no protection from America.  But moving to the Yuan and the Ruble, does.  Pricing large oil transaction in rubles also helps protect the Russian currency from large moves: if the ruble drops too much, people will go into it if you can buy oil in rubles, and the Russians are opening a futures operation as well, meaning traders can make that play, even if the US doesn’t like it.

Of course, the US could go harder in sanctions, making it difficult to take those winnings and get them back into dollars or Euros, but if the trade is large enough, Chinese and Oilarchy banks will clean the money and hide the flows.  London and New York will then want to get in on it, and will, through their offshore subsidiaries in various banking havens.

Note also the poke in the eye: the deal to take Iranian oil and sell it as Russian oil, bypassing the sanctions against Iran.

All of this is far more harmful to America’s real interests than any sanction the US has so far imposed on Russia.

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Ukraine’s Unelected Government Imposes IMF Austerity

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On March 28, 2014

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This is perhaps best article on what actually happened in the Ukraine and Crimea: the story is a little different than what you’ve been hearing on TV or reading in the newspapers, at least if you’re in most of the West.  The author does leave out some bits (like the Tatars boycotting the Crimean referendum), but overall it’s accurate.

Meanwhile the new PM in the Ukraine is imposing IMF austerity measures, like removing subsidies on Gas (50% increase) and cutting pensions (50%) cut. He says he’s on a Kamikazee mission.  That’s because he’s not elected, so he can do thing that an elected leader could never do.

Which is to say: there is a coup, backed by a popular uprising in the capital, which puts in place an unelected government, which does things that elected governments repeatedly refused to do.  The East and South of the country, which voted in the last elected government, is unhappy with this.

It’s really hard to conclude that Crimea didn’t do the right thing for most of their population by joining Russia.  50% increase in natural gas prices and 50% cut in pensions?  Would you stand still for that? Oh, and the average pension in the Ukraine is—$160/month.  $80 after it’s cut.

The last government may have been a bunch of corrupt assholes, but it’s hard to conclude that taking Russia’s deal of 15 billion dollars and subsidized gas wasn’t, actually, a better deal for most Ukrainians than approximately the same amount of money from the West + IMF austerity.  And these are only some of the measures: the civil service will be slashed, the government natural gas company will be privatized (meaning even higher prices down the road), the ban on selling agricultural land to foreigners will be lifted, and so on.

The EuroMaidan’s legacy won’t just be losing Crimea, it will be turning the Ukraine into Greece.

If I were Crimean, I would have voted yes in the referendum. Russia’s a corrupt oilarchy run by a near-dictator, but it has a stronger economy and better standard of living than the Ukraine, and that’s before the IMF gets through with the Ukraine.

I don’t know what Putin’s going to do.  If NATO membership were truly off the table, he’d be best served by doing nothing more.  Let the Ukrainian’s destroy their own economy through IMF austerity, and in a few years, at least the eastern half of the country will be begging to join Russia.

However, if NATO membership is on the table, and it seems to be, Putin may feel he has no choice to invade.  Problem is, after the West lied to Gorbachev about not expanding NATO, could Putin believe any Western promises if they were given?

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Why is Crimea Such a Great Crisis? It Shouldn’t Be.

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On March 20, 2014

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Really, I don’t understand why Crimea rejoining Russia is such a big deal.  While the referendum is dubious, it does seem that the majority of the population generally prefers to be part of Russia.  There have been almost zero casualties, and the Russian troops were mostly welcomed by the population.

Compare this to Kosovo, where there was ethnic cleansing on both sides, a major bombing campaign by the West which killed Serbs and so on. Or Iraq, or Libya, or Syria, or Chechnya, or South Sudan.  In all of those places there was a pile of violence, a lot of people died, got tortured, raped and lost their homes.  All of those, by any rational measure, are greater crises than Russia taking back a region which belonged to it for hundreds of years, whose population wants to go back.

Yes, yes, Munich, blah, blah.  Russia is not strong enough to start a conventional WWIII and win.  They are not insane enough to start a nuclear war.

The correct response to Crimea would be to say “well, it looks like they really do want to leave, they’re yours.”

If you don’t want Western Ukraine to go, then send in a NATO force and/or discuss formal partition of the Ukraine with the Western part immediately joining NATO. If you’re not willing to do that, then shut up.

This crisis is being made a crisis because of a hysterical over-reaction. The US and the EU thought they’d won this round, and moved the Ukraine back into their column. Putin didn’t accept that, and the West is freaking out over behaviour that is less egregious and killing far fewer people than wars that the US has been involved in for over a decade, and which is a cleaner break-off than Kosovo was.

As for setting a precedent, the precedent has been set already: in Kosovo, in South Sudan, in Eritrea and so on.  National borders are not inviolable if the population doesn’t want to stay in them, and can make their point militarily or has an ally who can make the point militarily.

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The Crimean Referendum of Independence

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On March 17, 2014

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Has passed with 97% in favor of joining Russia. Those not in favor boycotted the referendum, in part due to intimidation, in part due to the fact that the question was do you favor joining Russia, or return to the 1992 constitution, in which Crimea is a part of the Ukraine, but substantially independent.  There was no option to stay with the current situation.

While looking into the legal precedents, I investigated Kosovo: in 1991 they voted 99% in favor of independence.  Only Albania recognized the legality of the referendum.  Later, of course, Kosovo did wind up declaring its independence again.  Serbia went to the International Court of Justice for an opinion on whether it was legal for Kosovo to separate.  The decision was in favor, and is fascinating.

It basically amounts to this: though the declaration of independence was made by people who were in the Assembly of Kosovo, because they did not follow proper legislative procedure, did not use the words “Assembly of Kosovo” in the proclamation, and were not properly published, the proclamation was not illegal, because proclamations of independence are not generally illegal.

They also said that the ruling was a one off, and did not set precedent (sound familiar?)

The error, then, of the Crimeans may have been to have a legislative body, as a legislative body, take the decision and actually have a referendum.  If they had done it, not as a legislative body, but as just folks who happen to be in the legislative assembly, without a referendum, then it would have been legal.

All of the above, of course, is pernicious nonsense.  Of course many countries do not want regions to leave them, and make it illegal.  But it is impossible not to conclude that those who say Crimea joining Russia is illegal are anything but flaming hypocrites if they also said that Kosovo leaving Serbia was legal.  The International Court for Justice’s ruling is nothing but special pleading.

The larger issue is this: do people have the right to self-determination, and under what circumstances?  I live in Canada, where Quebec has tried to separate in my lifetime.  Those who were willing to let it leave asked another question: if Quebec can leave Canada, can parts of Quebec then hold a referendum and leave Quebec?  As badly as Canada treats its native people, in many ways Quebec treats them worse: much of northern Quebec might prefer to stay in Canada.  Of course, northern Quebec produces the hydro power which keeps southern Quebec financially viable (it is sent straight to New York.)

This is a line which is hard to draw: if you support self-determination, where does it stop?  What group is large enough to be allowed to leave?  If you don’t, if you think that whatever countries exist today should exist always and no one should leave then you have no such problem, but that can be a recipe for catastrophe, as Africa’s history, with all its artificial countries and their bloodshed, have shown.

Perhaps the more fundamental question is this: in a world with problem that nations can’t solve, why don’t we get rid of them entirely?  (There are reasons, and good ones, but do they outweigh the good reasons to end the existence of nations?)

More on that later, perhaps.

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