The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Trump Era Page 1 of 13

Trump’s Laughable Sanction Threats Against Russia

The US thru a kitchen sink of sanctions at Russia after the start of the Ukraine war, including freezing their foreign assets. The result?

The number is exaggerated, given Russian inflation, but even inflation adjusted, Russia’s doing fine.

It is impossible to choke out Russia with sanctions if China isn’t willing to go a long. (India not cooperating is the cherry on top.) Cannot be done. Impossible.

In fact, sanctions against Russia have been a huge favor to it, forcing a vast surge in import substitution, improving its industry, creating a booming economy whose only real problem is inflation. Russian oligarchs have been forced to spend their money and effort in Russia instead of wasting their money in the West. Meanwhile the sanctions have damaged Europe massively, though somewhat to the benefit of America, since much energy-intensive industry in Europe is shutting down and moving to the US.

If Trump wants peace for Ukraine with Russia he’s going to have to offer a good deal. Threats won’t cut it. Or just wait for the Russians to win and impose a peace.

Since Trump appears to be reducing aid to Ukraine, that will happen sooner than otherwise. Perhaps it’s his real strategy, or more likely, he’s simply incoherent. Russia halting along the current lines would be stupid of them, since they’re advancing inexorably and all reports are of significant Ukrainian manpower shortages.

Trump’s always been a bully, but Russia isn’t one of America’s vassals or satrapies. It’s a junior ally in the Chinese sphere, and Trump doesn’t have the economic or military leverage to make it do anything. The only country in the world which can force Russia is China, and China isn’t going to help America v.s. Russia under any likely Trump policy regime.

This blog runs on donations and subscriptions from readers. It’s free, but not free to produce. If you value it, please give.

Drill, Baby, Drill; Screw Immigrants; End the 14th Amendment; Climate Change Ho! Trump’s Day One Actions

What can I say, it’s an old picture, but I like it

The Guardian has a pretty good list of Trump’s executive actions day one.

January 6th pardons are the most interesting, to me. Trump should have granted these pardons before leaving office in 2020 but I’m sure they’re still a great relief to those charged or imprisoned. (I actually know one guy who wound up in prison because of J6.) When I say “should” I’m not expressing support for them storming the capital, just noting that a smart leader protects his most fanatical followers. Might need them again, after all.

There are a bunch of oil and climate related orders, which amount to “drill more, and screw any anti-climate change policies or agreements” including leaving the Paris accords. I’m not that worked up, Biden massively increased drilling too, he just protected a few places from it. As for the Paris agreement, it’s always been a dead letter. I notice that Musk has skated by, at least so far, Trump got rid of the “goal” to have half of all autos be electrical, but didn’t get rid of the subsidies, without which Musk would lose hundreds of billions of dollars .

Trump also ordered more work on the wall (Biden hadn’t actually stopped building barriers), ended appointments, seems to have effectively ended refugees and most impressively ordered all government departments not to issue documents related to birthright citizenship of any children born to illegal refugees. This is in direct violation of the 14th amendment as written, but given the makeup of the Supreme Court, the 14th may be a dead letter. He’s also declared an “emergency” so that troops can be deployed to the border, which would otherwise be illegal.

He has declared Mexican cartels terrorists and I’d guess he’s thinking of launching raids across the border, without Mexican government permission, which is going to be a nightmare.

All genders other than male and female have been declared non-existent, all policies allowing or encouraging gender change are disallowed, and the government can’t fund anything. Anti-trans hysteria continues. Pure pandering from Trump, as he’s suggested in the past that he doesn’t really care but is happy to whip up crowds with it. DEI related executive orders have been rescinded. Won’t do a thing to help the competency crisis, but more red meat.

Trump has also removed Schedule F protection for Federal civil servants from arbitrary dismissal. This will be challenged, but the consensus seems to be he’s within his rights. I’m not super worked about this, winning political parties should be able to put their people in place and it will work to the advantage of future Presidents as well.

Overall there’s not much here that’s surprising. For immigrants the real question is his planned immigrant roundups and expelling, which seem likely to start soon. The border guards were always his most loyal servants among the paramilitary forces and I’m sure they’re salivating at the opportunity to beat people up and degrade them.

The most interesting thing is that Musk has thus far bought himself a reprieve. Were I him, I’d showboat less, because Trump doesn’t like people who steal his limelight. Musk was essentially created by Obama era policies and subsidies favoring both private spaceflight and electric cars, and he can be destroyed just as easily by a hostile President.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Doctorow Has the Best Idea for How Canada Should Retaliate to Trump’s Tariffs + Make It So Americans Can’t Drive

Just break the IP laws and set up app stores with 5% feeds. Create jail break kits for John Deere tractors, and so on.

There’s no reason that a Canadian app store would have to confine itself to Canadian software authors, either. Canadian app stores could offer 5% commissions on sales to US and global software authors, and provide jailbreaking kits that allows device owners all around the world to install the Canadian app stores where software authors don’t get ripped off by American Big Tech companies.

Canadian companies like Honeybee already make “front-ends” for John Deere tractors – these are the components that turn a tractor into a plow, or a thresher, or another piece of heavy agricultural equipment. Honeybee struggles constantly to get its products to interface with Deere tractors, because Deere uses digital locks to block its products:

https://honeybee.ca/

Canada could produce jailbreaking kits for John Deere tractors, too – not just for Honeybee. Every ag-tech company in the world would benefit from commercially available, professionally supported John Deere jailbreaking kits. So would farmers, because these kits would restore farmers’ Right to Repair their own tractors:

This is the ultimate “break glass in case of fire” situation. US elites make a ton of their money from IP, and breaking it would hurt them extremely. It’s something I thought Russia could do in the face of American sanctions, but why not Canada? If the US won’t keep its deals with us, any deals we have with it are ours to break.

And Doctorow’s right that this is the perfect retaliation: any sort of exit-tariffs or retaliatory tariffs hurt Canada too. This just hurts the US, and hurts the decision makers, not ordinary people. Heck, many of them might benefit.

To make this really work, and make sure the population backs it, share half the profits with Canadians: just split them evenly.

If the US wants Canada to not be its good ally, then why not become a semi-neutral country? We can sell to the US and China and Europe, and become a data haven.

The other, less fun, but very devastating thing to do is to cut off raw crude. US refineries are reliant on Canadian crude oil, and by about a month after Canada doing so there would be absolute shortages of gasoline in half of America. Not “the price is high”, but “we don’t have it.” Canada can handle this for a few months. Just cover the company losses and insist they keep paying workers until we say otherwise.

Finally, and obviously, all countries being hit my Trump tariffs should get together, support each other and work to hurt the US and Trump as much as possible. Trump’s handed us allies, we should use them.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Gaza Ceasefire Proves Biden Wanted Genocide

Trump famously said that he wanted the hostages released by January 20th or there’d be hell to pay.

Well, we now have what appears to be a ceasefire deal. All hostages won’t be released by the 20th, but it won’t be long afterwards.

As Ryan Grim states, Biden wasn’t “weak”, he was for the genocide. And as many of us noted, the war could always have been ended by the US with one phone call, because it could not be waged without US support. Israel is completely dependent on American weapons and ammunition shipments, as well as US economic aid.

Lots of stuff is still up in the air, including who will control Gaza afterwards, and we’ll see if Israel actually lets aid in. But the deal appears to be basically the same deal as the one offered in July which Netanyahu kiboshed. The difference now is that Trump, even if not officially President yet, is calling the shots. Biden could have ended it in July and saved a ton of lives.

I’m a little surprised by this, but apparently Trump wasn’t just pandering to Muslims when he said he’d end the war. As for Biden, he’s human filth, a genocidal bastard. I refused to endorse him because I won’t support genocide, period.

Those who said Trump would be even worse for Gaza appear to have been wrong.

Don’t support genocide. Ever.

This also appears to be a loss for Israel, though it will depend on the details. Israel’s goal was ethnic cleansing at the least. If the Gazans keep control of all of Gaza, Israel lost. Frankly, at this point, not something I expected, but we’ll see as the deal and Israeli compliance with the deal becomes more clear.

America is in decline, possibly terminal decline, but it’s still a great power and Israel is entirely America’s creature, though the influence of AIPAC often makes it unclear whether the dog’s waving the tail, or the tail the dog.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

What Should Europe Do About American Cannibalizing It & The Chinese Threat?

So, Trump has threatened, most of the world, including most Germany and much of Europe, with 25% tariff rates. Under Biden, with the destruction of three of the four underseas pipelines from Russia to Europe, along with sanctions, Germany in particular and Europe in general have been losing energy-price sensitive industry to America. They close down in Europe, they open up in the US. Natural gas from America is much more expensive than Russian gas.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are coming on strong in automobiles and other consumer goods. Right now it’s mostly hitting European exports, so much so that BMW is planning on shutting down plants. The Euros have sold a lot of cars to China, but domestic producers are now cheaper and in many cases better, especially EVs.

Down in Africa, practically every country that France had troops in has or is planning to kick them out. The French bought a lot of resources from their ex-colonies at cheaper than market prices and screwed their ex-imperial possessions on loans and even charged some for “infrastructure built during colonization.” Now that those nations can get security from Russia and goods from China, they’re kicking the French out en-masse.

No love lost. Can’t imagine why people would be upset by being conquered, then charged for it. Ungrateful bastards.

Anyway, all of this has put Europe in a pickle. They’re behind China, the US, Japan and South Korea technologically. Their goods can’t compete with Chinese goods, and they’re losing their access to cheap resources from Africa, and have cut themselves off (with an explosive assist, almost certainly from the US) from cheap Russian resources. Meanwhile Trump is threatening Greenland, and saying the Euros need to spend more money on NATO.

Fun times in the garden. Nothing the Euros don’t deserve for refusing to end their vassalization back in the 2000s when they were up and the US was other occupied, but water under the bridge and all that.

So what should the Euros do? (Not what will they do. They love being American vassals and may well hug trumps leg as he kicks them until they cough blood.)

Well, for one, end the anti-Russia BS. If the Eastern Euros don’t like it, the Westerns should just kick them out of the EU or end the EU and start something else. Poles talk big, but they suck at the Euro teat. The Americans aren’t going to send them as much money as the EU does. If they want to be anti-Russia while Germany loses all its industry, get rid of them.

Russia has constantly stated its happiness to start selling to Europe again. Sure, China and India will buy their resources, but without Europe they lose a lot of bargaining power. Plus they built all the infrastructure and it can be fixed.

Second, reasonable trade deals with everyone else the US under Trump is fucking with tariffs. Canada and Australia are a good start. Japan seems to be avoiding the tariffs, but is worried and still pretty anti-China. Cut a deal with them as well.

The issue is that Europe has a high cost structure. Prices for their goods can’t compete with China. They need resources. Canada and Australia and Japan are high cost producers.

Form a trade bloc. Put up their own tariffs so that their domestic industry can compete. Insist that the Chinese build factories in country to avoid the tariffs. Europe’s still high income. Foster tech transfer from China. Massively invest in tech and science. Shut up about Chinese human rights, it’s none of their business and after Gaza it’s laughably hypocritical. China isn’t genociding the Uighurs, even if they don’t treat them great. So zip it.

Make your own trade area, consisting of high income, high cost structure nations with whom you can compete. Tell the US to fuck itself (politely but firmly) and rebuild the European military, not as part of NATO but independent.

France has nukes, expand that program and get them on modern missiles. Put allies under the European nuclear shield.

Form, in other words, a third pole.

Oh, there’s more that needs to be done. Neoliberal austerity needs to end, rents and housing and stock bubbles need to be slammed into the ground, and it needs to be policy that if you want to get rich you have to actually make stuff. No more finance bullshit, or landlordism.

But start by ending Europe’s vassalization and forming their own bloc.

Europe needs to grow up. The era of being America’s ally, and having a good standard of living without really having to work for it is over. America’s declining and they want to cannibalize their vassals to slow or (they hope, but hah) reverse the decline.

Don’t let them.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Canada 101 For Would Be American Annexers

So, reading various Americans who think annexing Canada would be a good idea, it’s clear most of them know nothing about Canada. Let’s educate them. The basic principles here are “Canadians are not Americans and Canada is not just America with fewer people.”

Canada Has Universal Healthcare

If you’re American you don’t know what this really means. Let me start with myself: if I had been born in America, I’d be dead the past thirty-one years. I needed millions of dollars of healthcare in my 20s at a time when I would have had no insurance if American. Since then I’ve needed serious care twice, in both cases when I’d have no insurance as an American.

I am not alone. There are a lot of Canadians who know they’d be dead, or unable to get healthcare if they were American. So, irrespective of any resistance, American annexing Canada means a lot of people will die.

I imagine some of them will decide that if they’re going to die anyway, strapping on a vest and saying an explosive hello to unwelcome American guests would be a good way to go.

Income Numbers are Deceptive

If you’re American you probably make more money than the equivalent Canadian. Great. Now subtract all hospital and doctor costs from that. I’ve never seen a hospital bill. I walked out after 3 months and no one asked me for one red cent. Your drugs cost way more than ours do, so subtract half the cost of any drugs your taking from your income. Americans have to pay for a lot of things that people in other countries get from government or for lower cost because government allows less gouging.

Canada’s History Is Based On the Idea “We Don’t Want to Be American”

America had its revolution. The people who lost and were most bitter about it? They were called the “United Empire Loyalists” and they fled to what was then called “Upper Canada”. When our founding fathers drew up our constitution, they looked at the US Constitution and said “they made some big mistakes.” They created a very different constitution. As one example, though it’s almost never used, the Federal government has the ability to override ANY decision made by the States. (Our founders were around during your civil war. They took a lesson.)

We raced West so that America wouldn’t claim all of North America. We stretched as far as we could to establish our borders opposition to, and in a race with America.

Canada’s founding principle is “We Are Not Americans.”

Canadian Identity

Not American. That’s what we all agree on. Americans see Canadians as more polite and wimpier Americans, and think everyone wants to be American, because gosh, America is the best. Canada always compares itself to American and asks “are we doing better?” I think that’s often a bad thing, the American bar is on the ground, trying to be better than America is often choosing a very low standard. Still, that’s how it is.

Canadians don’t bluster, but we have more wilderness and rural area than America. Canadians have a lot of guns, and rural and wilderness Canadians are tough and used to roughing it. There are places in Canada where there’s no one, no one, around for fifty miles. You take care of your own problems, or you die. The idea that Canadians are wimps is based on America being a superpower and Canadians being polite. It has little basis in reality outside the major cities, and Canadians in cities aren’t any more effete than Americans in cities (and while fat, less fat than Americans.)

Canada is BIG

Canada has more land than any country but Russia. Most of that land is sparsely inhabited. But, and this is important, so pay attention at the back of the class, almost everything America would want from Canada is out in the boons: oil, minerals, timber, etc…

People say Afghanistan was made for guerilla warfare but those people never thought what it’d be like to fight an insurgency in Canada. Thousands and thousands of miles of roads, railways and pipelines. Widely spread mines and farms and oil wells. Absolutely impossible to defend against some guy with an IED.

Canadians Don’t Want to Be Americans

There won’t be a voluntary annexation. A poll found 82% of Canadians opposed to joining the US and 13% for. If there’s a violent one America will conquer the cities in a couple weeks, then spend thirty years fighting a guerilla war which makes Afghanistan look like the picnic it was because, again, it’s a big country, often very rough and everything worth having is out in the country.

Canadians often like Americans, but most of us don’t want to be Americans and those who do simply emigrate to the US. And, in truth, just as many Americans look down on Canadians, Canadians think Americans are barbarians. Understand that when Canadians were polled on who the greatest Canadian is, the number one choice was Tommy Douglas, the father of Canadian Universal Healthcare.

We aren’t nearly as nice as we like to think we are, and we have plenty of flaws. But one thing the majority of us agree on, “Thank God We’re Not Americans.”

This is perfectly natural. For our entire history and even before Confederation the number one fact of Canadian political life has been the four hundred pound gorilla on the southern border. We’ve always been aware that many Americans wanted to take over Canada or take a big chunk of it. Fifty-four fourty was the slogan. The Canadian border is at the 49th parallel, but many Americans wanted it up at 54.4. Canada is the “not America” nation.

So, once again, for the slow folks:

Canada is not America. Canadians are not embarrassed Americans. Most Canadians don’t want to be Americans and like folks pretty much everywhere, figure that our country, whatever its flaws, is better than our neighbour’s country and that being us is better than being someone else.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Smart CEOs Suck Up To Trump

So, a very partial list of donors to Trump’s second inauguration includes:

  • Apple’s Tim Cook.
  • Ken Griffon of Citadel.
  • Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.
  • Sam Altman of OpenAI.
  • Zuckerberg of Meta/Facebook.
  • Dara Koroshawi of Uber.
  • General Motors, Ford and Toyota.

Trump imposed a lot of sanctions on China in his first term but somehow Apple avoided most of them. Not coincidentally Tim Cook supposedly talked to Trump every week. I’m sure he spent that time being Trump’s good friend and toady.

I don’t blame him for it, it was his job. Apple sold a ton of phones in China and made most of their gear in China. Trump could have (and can) tear the heart of out of Apple.

The FTC is planning to take Meta to court over anti-trust violations this year. Want to bet they change their minds?

Amazon is nothing but a giant sucking anti-trust violation.

Olds will remember that Microsoft was almost broken up by an anti-trust suit. The government was clearly winning its case in 2000, but when Bush Jr. took power, the government suddenly decided to drop the case. Saved Gates billions and billions.

Trump’s tariff plans are going to hit a lot of companies hard, but some will likely get waivers, as Apple did. Wouldn’t you pay a million dollars, or ten million, to predispose Trump to make sure you get a waiver that will save you billions?

Sure you would.

Wearing kneepads for the President and other important political figures is part of the CEO’s job. And Trump, more than most Presidents requires sycophants and courtiers around him. You make him feel good, he takes care of you.

You tell him he’s wearing the Emperor’s “New Clothes” and that doesn’t end well for you. You steal the limelight from him too often (like Bannon did and Musk seems to be) and that may end badly for you.

Musk, by the way, is in particular trouble. Though most people haven’t caught on yet, Tesla, which is the vast majority of his wealth in terms of over-inflated stock, is in huge trouble. Chinese EV firms produce better cars for half the price. Even domestic firms like GM are now producing cars which are, arguably, better and given how slow Tesla’s model cycle is, it won’t be arguable for much longer. Musk needs government protection and aid, like the 100% tariffs Biden put on Chinese cars. He should be very careful not to irritate Trump and be eager to get down, not just on his knees, but on his belly,. All it would take is Trump providing a waiver for BYD and Musk would be lucky to be worth a hundred billion let alone be the richest man in the world.

Of course if you run a small or medium business, you aren’t going to have a personal relationship with Trump and are a lot less likely to get a business-saving waiver or a rule made especially to help your company. That’s America under imperial Presidency rule.

In the meantime, the kneepads are on, the CEOs are kneeling and Trump’s enjoying himself. Welcome to the second Trump Presidency.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

 

The MAGA Civil War Over H1-B Visas

Is like watching a cage match between the two worst people in the world.

In this corner, the screw the peons billionaires.

In the other corner, the racist anti-immigrant nativists!

Personally I’m cheering for the racist anti-immigrants.

Vivek Ramaswany delightfully opinined that the problem is that American culture doesn’t produce people willing to work hard enough and celebrates prom queens and jocks over math olympiads. (American engineers aren’t keen on 12 hour work days.)

Funny thing, I’m in my 50s so I remember when prom queens and jocks really were worshipped and nerds were beaten up: and back then the US still led the world in engineering. And the 50s, the pinnacle of American power, were not noted for love of nerds. There’s some truth to what Vivek says, but culture isn’t why America has fallen behind. Instead America deliberately offshored its industry to China and China has maintained a cost advantage.

H1-B visas obviously take jobs from Americans. Yes, companies must say they doesn’t, but they do. H1B workers can’t leave their employers unless they have another lined up immediately, so they do what they’re told or go home. As such, they obviously have reduced bargaining power compared to natives or landed immigrants. This drives down wages for natives, “if you won’t do it, we’ll get an immigrant to, and they’ll take the wage we’re offering.”

The left-wing argument against guest workers, and H1B visas are just tech guest workers, is that if we genuinely need workers, then they should be over here either as landed immigrants or on a visa which allows them to quit and have some reasonable time to find another employer. A class of workers with reduced rights will obviously be preferred by management and will reduce the bargaining power of native workers.

Indians, who get most of these tech visas, aren’t culturally superior workers. They’re desperate workers, and desperate workers are good workers, for bosses.

Trump, of course, came down on Musk’s side. Billionaire solidarity is real and Trump has used H1B visa workers often in his own business.

Trump’s in his second term. MAGA got him elected, but the only reason he might care what they want any more is concern for mid-terms. Other than that, they don’t matter.

If they do want to win, the way is to emphasize that Musk and Vivek are in charge, they’re the real Presidents, and that he’s just their “cuck”, to use the modern term.

Trump doesn’t care about anybody but himself, but he has plenty of ego. Use it.

In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy the cage match.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Page 1 of 13

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén