The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Category: Trump Era Page 4 of 16

Gaza Ceasefire Proves Biden Wanted Genocide

Trump famously said that he wanted the hostages released by January 20th or there’d be hell to pay.

Well, we now have what appears to be a ceasefire deal. All hostages won’t be released by the 20th, but it won’t be long afterwards.

As Ryan Grim states, Biden wasn’t “weak”, he was for the genocide. And as many of us noted, the war could always have been ended by the US with one phone call, because it could not be waged without US support. Israel is completely dependent on American weapons and ammunition shipments, as well as US economic aid.

Lots of stuff is still up in the air, including who will control Gaza afterwards, and we’ll see if Israel actually lets aid in. But the deal appears to be basically the same deal as the one offered in July which Netanyahu kiboshed. The difference now is that Trump, even if not officially President yet, is calling the shots. Biden could have ended it in July and saved a ton of lives.

I’m a little surprised by this, but apparently Trump wasn’t just pandering to Muslims when he said he’d end the war. As for Biden, he’s human filth, a genocidal bastard. I refused to endorse him because I won’t support genocide, period.

Those who said Trump would be even worse for Gaza appear to have been wrong.

Don’t support genocide. Ever.

This also appears to be a loss for Israel, though it will depend on the details. Israel’s goal was ethnic cleansing at the least. If the Gazans keep control of all of Gaza, Israel lost. Frankly, at this point, not something I expected, but we’ll see as the deal and Israeli compliance with the deal becomes more clear.

America is in decline, possibly terminal decline, but it’s still a great power and Israel is entirely America’s creature, though the influence of AIPAC often makes it unclear whether the dog’s waving the tail, or the tail the dog.

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What Should Europe Do About American Cannibalizing It & The Chinese Threat?

So, Trump has threatened, most of the world, including most Germany and much of Europe, with 25% tariff rates. Under Biden, with the destruction of three of the four underseas pipelines from Russia to Europe, along with sanctions, Germany in particular and Europe in general have been losing energy-price sensitive industry to America. They close down in Europe, they open up in the US. Natural gas from America is much more expensive than Russian gas.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are coming on strong in automobiles and other consumer goods. Right now it’s mostly hitting European exports, so much so that BMW is planning on shutting down plants. The Euros have sold a lot of cars to China, but domestic producers are now cheaper and in many cases better, especially EVs.

Down in Africa, practically every country that France had troops in has or is planning to kick them out. The French bought a lot of resources from their ex-colonies at cheaper than market prices and screwed their ex-imperial possessions on loans and even charged some for “infrastructure built during colonization.” Now that those nations can get security from Russia and goods from China, they’re kicking the French out en-masse.

No love lost. Can’t imagine why people would be upset by being conquered, then charged for it. Ungrateful bastards.

Anyway, all of this has put Europe in a pickle. They’re behind China, the US, Japan and South Korea technologically. Their goods can’t compete with Chinese goods, and they’re losing their access to cheap resources from Africa, and have cut themselves off (with an explosive assist, almost certainly from the US) from cheap Russian resources. Meanwhile Trump is threatening Greenland, and saying the Euros need to spend more money on NATO.

Fun times in the garden. Nothing the Euros don’t deserve for refusing to end their vassalization back in the 2000s when they were up and the US was other occupied, but water under the bridge and all that.

So what should the Euros do? (Not what will they do. They love being American vassals and may well hug trumps leg as he kicks them until they cough blood.)

Well, for one, end the anti-Russia BS. If the Eastern Euros don’t like it, the Westerns should just kick them out of the EU or end the EU and start something else. Poles talk big, but they suck at the Euro teat. The Americans aren’t going to send them as much money as the EU does. If they want to be anti-Russia while Germany loses all its industry, get rid of them.

Russia has constantly stated its happiness to start selling to Europe again. Sure, China and India will buy their resources, but without Europe they lose a lot of bargaining power. Plus they built all the infrastructure and it can be fixed.

Second, reasonable trade deals with everyone else the US under Trump is fucking with tariffs. Canada and Australia are a good start. Japan seems to be avoiding the tariffs, but is worried and still pretty anti-China. Cut a deal with them as well.

The issue is that Europe has a high cost structure. Prices for their goods can’t compete with China. They need resources. Canada and Australia and Japan are high cost producers.

Form a trade bloc. Put up their own tariffs so that their domestic industry can compete. Insist that the Chinese build factories in country to avoid the tariffs. Europe’s still high income. Foster tech transfer from China. Massively invest in tech and science. Shut up about Chinese human rights, it’s none of their business and after Gaza it’s laughably hypocritical. China isn’t genociding the Uighurs, even if they don’t treat them great. So zip it.

Make your own trade area, consisting of high income, high cost structure nations with whom you can compete. Tell the US to fuck itself (politely but firmly) and rebuild the European military, not as part of NATO but independent.

France has nukes, expand that program and get them on modern missiles. Put allies under the European nuclear shield.

Form, in other words, a third pole.

Oh, there’s more that needs to be done. Neoliberal austerity needs to end, rents and housing and stock bubbles need to be slammed into the ground, and it needs to be policy that if you want to get rich you have to actually make stuff. No more finance bullshit, or landlordism.

But start by ending Europe’s vassalization and forming their own bloc.

Europe needs to grow up. The era of being America’s ally, and having a good standard of living without really having to work for it is over. America’s declining and they want to cannibalize their vassals to slow or (they hope, but hah) reverse the decline.

Don’t let them.

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Canada 101 For Would Be American Annexers

So, reading various Americans who think annexing Canada would be a good idea, it’s clear most of them know nothing about Canada. Let’s educate them. The basic principles here are “Canadians are not Americans and Canada is not just America with fewer people.”

Canada Has Universal Healthcare

If you’re American you don’t know what this really means. Let me start with myself: if I had been born in America, I’d be dead the past thirty-one years. I needed millions of dollars of healthcare in my 20s at a time when I would have had no insurance if American. Since then I’ve needed serious care twice, in both cases when I’d have no insurance as an American.

I am not alone. There are a lot of Canadians who know they’d be dead, or unable to get healthcare if they were American. So, irrespective of any resistance, American annexing Canada means a lot of people will die.

I imagine some of them will decide that if they’re going to die anyway, strapping on a vest and saying an explosive hello to unwelcome American guests would be a good way to go.

Income Numbers are Deceptive

If you’re American you probably make more money than the equivalent Canadian. Great. Now subtract all hospital and doctor costs from that. I’ve never seen a hospital bill. I walked out after 3 months and no one asked me for one red cent. Your drugs cost way more than ours do, so subtract half the cost of any drugs your taking from your income. Americans have to pay for a lot of things that people in other countries get from government or for lower cost because government allows less gouging.

Canada’s History Is Based On the Idea “We Don’t Want to Be American”

America had its revolution. The people who lost and were most bitter about it? They were called the “United Empire Loyalists” and they fled to what was then called “Upper Canada”. When our founding fathers drew up our constitution, they looked at the US Constitution and said “they made some big mistakes.” They created a very different constitution. As one example, though it’s almost never used, the Federal government has the ability to override ANY decision made by the States. (Our founders were around during your civil war. They took a lesson.)

We raced West so that America wouldn’t claim all of North America. We stretched as far as we could to establish our borders opposition to, and in a race with America.

Canada’s founding principle is “We Are Not Americans.”

Canadian Identity

Not American. That’s what we all agree on. Americans see Canadians as more polite and wimpier Americans, and think everyone wants to be American, because gosh, America is the best. Canada always compares itself to American and asks “are we doing better?” I think that’s often a bad thing, the American bar is on the ground, trying to be better than America is often choosing a very low standard. Still, that’s how it is.

Canadians don’t bluster, but we have more wilderness and rural area than America. Canadians have a lot of guns, and rural and wilderness Canadians are tough and used to roughing it. There are places in Canada where there’s no one, no one, around for fifty miles. You take care of your own problems, or you die. The idea that Canadians are wimps is based on America being a superpower and Canadians being polite. It has little basis in reality outside the major cities, and Canadians in cities aren’t any more effete than Americans in cities (and while fat, less fat than Americans.)

Canada is BIG

Canada has more land than any country but Russia. Most of that land is sparsely inhabited. But, and this is important, so pay attention at the back of the class, almost everything America would want from Canada is out in the boons: oil, minerals, timber, etc…

People say Afghanistan was made for guerilla warfare but those people never thought what it’d be like to fight an insurgency in Canada. Thousands and thousands of miles of roads, railways and pipelines. Widely spread mines and farms and oil wells. Absolutely impossible to defend against some guy with an IED.

Canadians Don’t Want to Be Americans

There won’t be a voluntary annexation. A poll found 82% of Canadians opposed to joining the US and 13% for. If there’s a violent one America will conquer the cities in a couple weeks, then spend thirty years fighting a guerilla war which makes Afghanistan look like the picnic it was because, again, it’s a big country, often very rough and everything worth having is out in the country.

Canadians often like Americans, but most of us don’t want to be Americans and those who do simply emigrate to the US. And, in truth, just as many Americans look down on Canadians, Canadians think Americans are barbarians. Understand that when Canadians were polled on who the greatest Canadian is, the number one choice was Tommy Douglas, the father of Canadian Universal Healthcare.

We aren’t nearly as nice as we like to think we are, and we have plenty of flaws. But one thing the majority of us agree on, “Thank God We’re Not Americans.”

This is perfectly natural. For our entire history and even before Confederation the number one fact of Canadian political life has been the four hundred pound gorilla on the southern border. We’ve always been aware that many Americans wanted to take over Canada or take a big chunk of it. Fifty-four fourty was the slogan. The Canadian border is at the 49th parallel, but many Americans wanted it up at 54.4. Canada is the “not America” nation.

So, once again, for the slow folks:

Canada is not America. Canadians are not embarrassed Americans. Most Canadians don’t want to be Americans and like folks pretty much everywhere, figure that our country, whatever its flaws, is better than our neighbour’s country and that being us is better than being someone else.

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Smart CEOs Suck Up To Trump

So, a very partial list of donors to Trump’s second inauguration includes:

  • Apple’s Tim Cook.
  • Ken Griffon of Citadel.
  • Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.
  • Sam Altman of OpenAI.
  • Zuckerberg of Meta/Facebook.
  • Dara Koroshawi of Uber.
  • General Motors, Ford and Toyota.

Trump imposed a lot of sanctions on China in his first term but somehow Apple avoided most of them. Not coincidentally Tim Cook supposedly talked to Trump every week. I’m sure he spent that time being Trump’s good friend and toady.

I don’t blame him for it, it was his job. Apple sold a ton of phones in China and made most of their gear in China. Trump could have (and can) tear the heart of out of Apple.

The FTC is planning to take Meta to court over anti-trust violations this year. Want to bet they change their minds?

Amazon is nothing but a giant sucking anti-trust violation.

Olds will remember that Microsoft was almost broken up by an anti-trust suit. The government was clearly winning its case in 2000, but when Bush Jr. took power, the government suddenly decided to drop the case. Saved Gates billions and billions.

Trump’s tariff plans are going to hit a lot of companies hard, but some will likely get waivers, as Apple did. Wouldn’t you pay a million dollars, or ten million, to predispose Trump to make sure you get a waiver that will save you billions?

Sure you would.

Wearing kneepads for the President and other important political figures is part of the CEO’s job. And Trump, more than most Presidents requires sycophants and courtiers around him. You make him feel good, he takes care of you.

You tell him he’s wearing the Emperor’s “New Clothes” and that doesn’t end well for you. You steal the limelight from him too often (like Bannon did and Musk seems to be) and that may end badly for you.

Musk, by the way, is in particular trouble. Though most people haven’t caught on yet, Tesla, which is the vast majority of his wealth in terms of over-inflated stock, is in huge trouble. Chinese EV firms produce better cars for half the price. Even domestic firms like GM are now producing cars which are, arguably, better and given how slow Tesla’s model cycle is, it won’t be arguable for much longer. Musk needs government protection and aid, like the 100% tariffs Biden put on Chinese cars. He should be very careful not to irritate Trump and be eager to get down, not just on his knees, but on his belly,. All it would take is Trump providing a waiver for BYD and Musk would be lucky to be worth a hundred billion let alone be the richest man in the world.

Of course if you run a small or medium business, you aren’t going to have a personal relationship with Trump and are a lot less likely to get a business-saving waiver or a rule made especially to help your company. That’s America under imperial Presidency rule.

In the meantime, the kneepads are on, the CEOs are kneeling and Trump’s enjoying himself. Welcome to the second Trump Presidency.

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The MAGA Civil War Over H1-B Visas

Is like watching a cage match between the two worst people in the world.

In this corner, the screw the peons billionaires.

In the other corner, the racist anti-immigrant nativists!

Personally I’m cheering for the racist anti-immigrants.

Vivek Ramaswany delightfully opinined that the problem is that American culture doesn’t produce people willing to work hard enough and celebrates prom queens and jocks over math olympiads. (American engineers aren’t keen on 12 hour work days.)

Funny thing, I’m in my 50s so I remember when prom queens and jocks really were worshipped and nerds were beaten up: and back then the US still led the world in engineering. And the 50s, the pinnacle of American power, were not noted for love of nerds. There’s some truth to what Vivek says, but culture isn’t why America has fallen behind. Instead America deliberately offshored its industry to China and China has maintained a cost advantage.

H1-B visas obviously take jobs from Americans. Yes, companies must say they doesn’t, but they do. H1B workers can’t leave their employers unless they have another lined up immediately, so they do what they’re told or go home. As such, they obviously have reduced bargaining power compared to natives or landed immigrants. This drives down wages for natives, “if you won’t do it, we’ll get an immigrant to, and they’ll take the wage we’re offering.”

The left-wing argument against guest workers, and H1B visas are just tech guest workers, is that if we genuinely need workers, then they should be over here either as landed immigrants or on a visa which allows them to quit and have some reasonable time to find another employer. A class of workers with reduced rights will obviously be preferred by management and will reduce the bargaining power of native workers.

Indians, who get most of these tech visas, aren’t culturally superior workers. They’re desperate workers, and desperate workers are good workers, for bosses.

Trump, of course, came down on Musk’s side. Billionaire solidarity is real and Trump has used H1B visa workers often in his own business.

Trump’s in his second term. MAGA got him elected, but the only reason he might care what they want any more is concern for mid-terms. Other than that, they don’t matter.

If they do want to win, the way is to emphasize that Musk and Vivek are in charge, they’re the real Presidents, and that he’s just their “cuck”, to use the modern term.

Trump doesn’t care about anybody but himself, but he has plenty of ego. Use it.

In the meantime, I’m going to enjoy the cage match.

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Elon Musk Threatens Congress Successfully

This is some amazing shit:

Congress was about to vote on a bill called a “Continuing Resolution”, which would fund the operations of the federal government. But yesterday, Musk started tweeting around the clock about how he hated the bill and that he would fund the campaigns of politicians who ran against Congress members who supported it.

….Shortly after Musk decided he was against the Continuing Resolution, Trump and JD Vance issued a statement saying they were against it, too. The politicians in Congress fell in line, and now it looks like the government funding plan is dead.

Here’s the thing. Being rich only means you’re good at making money in a specific way. It doesn’t mean anything else. Gates, for example, pushed the “Common Core” education changes, and there’s no evidence they did any good and some reason to think they were harmful.

We have a rich man (maybe a billionaire) as President. We have Musk, the world’s richest man, who spent a lot money helping Trump win as one of the most important people in the new administration, who has said he wants to cut Social Security and Medicare.

Money is the ability to tell people what do. It let’s you control their actions, either directly or indirectly.

FDR defined fascism as:

Ownership of Government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power

The US has been trending towards oligarchy for ages. The final victory for oligarchy was probably “Citizen’s United”, which made money the same as speech and thus protected under the first amendment.

The famous Princeton oligarchy study, which used data from 1981-2002, which is to say from back when the rich weren’t nearly as powerful as they are now, found that:

…when one holds constant net interest-group alignments and the preferences of affluent Americans, it makes very little difference what the general public thinks. The probability of policy change is nearly the same (around 0.3) whether a tiny minority or a large majority of average citizens favor a proposed policy change (refer to the top panel of figure 1).

By contrast—again with other actors held constant—a proposed policy change with low support among economically-elite Americans (one out of five in favor) is adopted only about 18 percent of the time, while a proposed change with high support (four out of five in favor) is adopted about 45 percent of the time. Similarly, when support for policy change is low among interest groups (with five groups strongly opposed and none in favor) the probability of that policy change occurring is only .16, but the probability rises to .47 when interest groups are strongly favorable (refer to the bottom two panels of figure 1). Footnote 41

Musk is the world’s richest man. He threatened members of Congress using his money, and they caved.

It’s always amusing when Americans call Russia an oligarchy. It isn’t. Russia’s oligarchs have very little power compared to Putin. If they cross him, he destroys them. They do what he wants, when he wants or they go to jail or have to flee the country, giving up any wealth in Russia.

America, on the other hand, is sickeningly an oligarchy and it’s going from indirect to direct oligarchical control.

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Batshit Delusional Canadian Conservatives

I want to highlight some tweets, because they’re representational of a lot of what modern Canadian conservatives think:

Trump’s 51st state rhetoric regards Canada is serving a number of different functions, but beneath it all Trump understands the threat posed to the United States by the Laurentian Elite who run Canada, and their disgraced and soon to be replaced poster boy, Justin Trudeau.

Trump and his people are well aware of a number of growing threats to US interests happening with the neighbors. His talk of tariffs is merely a negotiating tool to force the Canadian government to start governing like adults.

An incredible amount of illegal migrants, terrorists, and highly dangerous drugs like Fentanyl are flowing into the US from the northern border, and Trudeau has done squat fuck all to stop it, and in many ways has encouraged it through his globalist immigration policies.

Canada is also moving into the Chinese sphere of influence and control. Let us not forget that CSIS confirmed ChiCom interference in Canadian politics back to Mulroney, and direct interference in the last two elections. Nothing has been done about that.

China is also buying land and resource access in Canada, which Trump, and every administration previous to his, rightly viewed as theirs, insofar as the historical precedent has been set by Canada and the US having an incredible trade relationship. Trump wants them out.

The discussion around tariffs was a component of the disagreements between Trudeau + Freeland last week which lead to her resignation as Deputy PM + Finance Minister. Trump is already orchestrating major Ws for Canada, and signaling to the government he means business…

TL;dr – what Trump is doing is good for The United States and will ultimately be good for Canada. We will not become an official 51st state, but Canada will definitely improve if it heeds to Trump’s demands. The status quo is leading us to hell.

This is so insane it’s hard to even respond to, but let’s give it a shot.

Canada’s policy has been massively anti-Chinese all thru Trudeau’s reign. We have sanctions on China. We arrested a Huawei VP for the US, which previous government officials felt was insane. We are not friendly to China, and their influence ops are not particularly effective. Our intelligence services are working against Chinese influence but do nothing to stop American or Israeli influence.

America has 100X the influence that China has over Canada. Israel has a 100X the influence that China has over Canada. China is not even in the running.

Canada’s land and resources do not (or should not) belong to America. As Russia proved recently, if the resource is in your country, you can take it away any time you really want to. BA Canadian is saying that the US rightly owns our resources is beyond offensive.

There are only two countries in the world which are a threat to Canada: the US and Russia. Russia is a minor threat to some our northern island possessions, the US is an existential threat. There is only one country in the world which could invade and conquer Canada. We have one-tenth the population and an army which is a joke. We are no threat to the US at all, and if we moved to let Chinese military forces in (which we won’t) America would bomb or invade the hell out of us.

America, on the other hand, has a proven record of being run by deranged warmongers who will invade or otherwise destroy foreign countries. We are zero threat to the US, the US is a huge threat to us. It is a maxim of strategy that you plan based on other countries capabilities, not their intentions, because intentions can change.

No one who doesn’t want a nuclear deterrent is a Canadian patriot. It is the only way we can be safe from the implicit (or under Trump, nearly explicit) threat of American force.

It is true that the neoliberals who have run the country from Mulrooney on have been terrible for Canada. But they have been terrible exactly because they over-integrated us with America from the Free Trade and NAFTA deals on. The old Canadian economy, from about 1880 to 1990 or so was based on having a real manufacturing sector to balance the resource sector. When resource prices were high, we subsidized industry. When resource prices were low (and thus the dollar was low) our manufacturing became more competitive and we subsidized the resource industry and paid welfare to laid off resource workers. That mixed economy produced one of the best economies in the world for over a century.

But American style conservates in Canada seem to want to deepen our vassalage to America. Our interests are not the same as America’s in all cases and acting as if they are is delusional.

The last real Prime Minister of Canada was Justin Trudeau’s father Pierre. He was willing to tell the US to go to hell when necessary. During one trade dispute he actually closed the border to trade flow to the US.

No PM since then has been willing to give the middle finger to the US and they have made us weaker and more dependent on America. We used to not ship raw seafood or logs, for example—all primary processing was done in Canada.

Now, ever since the fall of Britain in WWII (they won the war and lost the peace) there’s no question we’ve been a vassal state, but there’s abject vassalge and there is dignified vassalage where you’re able to stand up for your own interests.

Too many American influenced Canadian conservatives have bought into ridiculous ideas. To think that Trump cares about the welfare of Canadians is so out to lunch that I can’t find words to describe it. It’s questionable if Trump cares about anything but Trump. He cares about America as an extension of himself. He sure as hell doesn’t care about any other country except perhaps Israel.

Trump wants things from Canada which he thinks will make America better off. That’s all. This isn’t a “tough love” situation where he’s trying to make us do the right thing because it’s good for us. It might work out that way in some parts, but it’s not his intention, it’s a result of him destroying the post-cold war international order which was terrible for Canada and Canadians and putting the boot to neoliberalism.

But Trump’s policies are intended to take industry away from America’s allies and bring them to the US, just as were Biden’s. He’s more brutal and honest about it, but Canada can’t afford to lose even more industry.

Get nukes, and run Canada for Canadians. Only a Canada with nukes can be a sovereign country, free from the implicit threat of invasion. Force the Americans to downsize their embassy and move it far from Parliament, and watch Americans like hawks so they don’t run a color revolution.

Both the neoliberals who run Canada now and the American-style conservatives who want to replace them are bad for Canada and any Candian who wants Trump to push Canada around is a traitor. Someone who wants to pucker up and kiss the boot that’s kicking him.

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DOGE Will Wind Up Costing the Government More Money

Elon Musk will be in charge of the effort by Trump to cut government waste.

Problem is, most government workers actually do something necessary. The last time a government seriously slashed government workers, under Clinton, all that happened is that contractors were hired to do the work: and contractors cost more. Nor has there been any real increase in federal employees in decades. In fact, as a percentage of the US population, federal government workers are in decline.

Besides, if you’re going to actually go after waste, you need to hit the Department of Defense and allow things like Medicare negotiating drug prices.

Government is a profit center for private business, as Musk, whose businesses (especially SpaceX) run on subsidies and government contracts well knows. Musk’s savings will turn into money for the rich and corporations.

A few genuine “savings” may be made by slashing enforcement of things like environmental laws, but they will be paid for in different ways.

Oddly, the best way to save the government money would probably be to reduce use of contractors and hire more government employees and the best way to improve the top line would be to hire more auditors for the IRS and have them go after the rich.

The real world isn’t the world of outraged right wingers, alas.

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