The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Elon Musk Threatens Congress Successfully

This is some amazing shit:

Congress was about to vote on a bill called a “Continuing Resolution”, which would fund the operations of the federal government. But yesterday, Musk started tweeting around the clock about how he hated the bill and that he would fund the campaigns of politicians who ran against Congress members who supported it.

….Shortly after Musk decided he was against the Continuing Resolution, Trump and JD Vance issued a statement saying they were against it, too. The politicians in Congress fell in line, and now it looks like the government funding plan is dead.

Here’s the thing. Being rich only means you’re good at making money in a specific way. It doesn’t mean anything else. Gates, for example, pushed the “Common Core” education changes, and there’s no evidence they did any good and some reason to think they were harmful.

We have a rich man (maybe a billionaire) as President. We have Musk, the world’s richest man, who spent a lot money helping Trump win as one of the most important people in the new administration, who has said he wants to cut Social Security and Medicare.

Money is the ability to tell people what do. It let’s you control their actions, either directly or indirectly.

FDR defined fascism as:

Ownership of Government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power

The US has been trending towards oligarchy for ages. The final victory for oligarchy was probably “Citizen’s United”, which made money the same as speech and thus protected under the first amendment.

The famous Princeton oligarchy study, which used data from 1981-2002, which is to say from back when the rich weren’t nearly as powerful as they are now, found that:

…when one holds constant net interest-group alignments and the preferences of affluent Americans, it makes very little difference what the general public thinks. The probability of policy change is nearly the same (around 0.3) whether a tiny minority or a large majority of average citizens favor a proposed policy change (refer to the top panel of figure 1).

By contrast—again with other actors held constant—a proposed policy change with low support among economically-elite Americans (one out of five in favor) is adopted only about 18 percent of the time, while a proposed change with high support (four out of five in favor) is adopted about 45 percent of the time. Similarly, when support for policy change is low among interest groups (with five groups strongly opposed and none in favor) the probability of that policy change occurring is only .16, but the probability rises to .47 when interest groups are strongly favorable (refer to the bottom two panels of figure 1). Footnote 41

Musk is the world’s richest man. He threatened members of Congress using his money, and they caved.

It’s always amusing when Americans call Russia an oligarchy. It isn’t. Russia’s oligarchs have very little power compared to Putin. If they cross him, he destroys them. They do what he wants, when he wants or they go to jail or have to flee the country, giving up any wealth in Russia.

America, on the other hand, is sickeningly an oligarchy and it’s going from indirect to direct oligarchical control.

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20 Comments

  1. marku52

    OTOH, I was pleased to see that 1500 page pile-O-crap get brought down to more reasonable size. The original one got more liability safety for Pfizer, a football stadium, and 12 new biolabs.

    Musk and X pointed out what was in the darn thing, And people reacted to it and told off their congresscritters. I think it’s the most honestly “democratic” thing I’ve seen happen in years.
    And oh the tears from the fainting couches. Let me get out my tiny violin…..

  2. someofparts

    So will Musk now enjoy healthcare CEO levels of popularity? Will Rogan invite him back for another jolly circle jerk? Be interesting to see the number of viewers and the comments for that show. Probably can’t argue with President Musk on X without getting banned.

    At least there is this – whatever it will take to fix this, if it even can be fixed, will not be half measures. I will be hoping that the hatred for this dreadful man will dwarf public outrage at the healthcare ghouls.

    Of course the first test is to see if the boot-licking national press will even report on it, or how they will spin it if they do. Lucky for me I have plenty of deeply clueless people around who will gladly spout the latest lies, no matter how far-fetched, so it won’t be hard to measure the extent of their gullibility quickly.

    At least this may be good news for the Asians because it probably means that our national rush toward insolvency will happen faster now. The weaker and more crippled the US becomes, the less it will cost Asia in lives and treasure to stop us.

  3. Eclair

    Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the world’s wealthiest man and his extremely wealthy sidekick, have been invited by the US President-elect to head a ‘volunteer organization’ (h/t Lambert at NC) that will have the power (voters, Congress, did you elect/appoint this duo?) to cut ‘bloated’ government agencies.

    Who needs an army, or even a rogue group of military officers, to overthrow a government by force, when you have enough money to bribe them all. (Hey, every General and Senator gets a new 2025 Tesla Model S! And a lifetime supply of Lipitor!) All you have to do is ‘relax and enjoy it’ as we turn the Government from a creaky and inefficient representative democracy into a profitable enterprise. And, once the House has elected me (Elon the Efficient) Speaker (bribing the necessary majority: not a problem), we list shares on the NYSE! The USA: parceled out to the planet’s wealthiest investors! Sorry that we will be announcing staff redundancies in the next month.

    Both Musk and Ramaswamy are marketing geniuses, snake oil salesmen, adept at taking someone else’s idea, invention, concept, and selling it to the world. Jefferson, Madison, and buddies, you had a pretty good idea, democracy and all that (even though you stole it from the Indigenous Iroquois Federation and then genocided them so you could take all the credit) but we’re bringing it to the next level! In Capitalism We Trust!

    I’m looking for someone to write a counter argument here. Please. I’m really really depressed and could use a bit of Holiday cheer.

  4. NR

    I don’t mean to pick on marku52, because he is far from the only one out there saying stuff like this, but the “football stadium” talking point is a great example of how pervasive and effective right-wing propaganda is these days. Nobody out there pushing the “the bill includes money for a football stadium!” talking point has read even a single page of the bill, they’ve only read/watched the propaganda about it. If they had read it, they would know that the bill doesn’t contain any money for a new football stadium. None. Not one penny.

    What the bill actually contains is a transfer of land at the location of the RFK stadium from federal ownership to Washington DC’s ownership. If DC decides to put a new stadium there, it won’t be paid for with this bill. In fact, the bill explicitly states that if they want a new stadium or repairs, it is not being paid for by this bill or any federal funds.

    PROHIBITING USE OF FEDERAL FUNDS FOR STADIUM.—The Declaration of Covenants entered into under subsection (a)(1) shall include provisions to ensure that the District may not use Federal funds for stadium purposes on the Campus, including training facilities, offices, and other structures necessary to support a stadium.

    This is from the actual text of the bill, which can be found here: https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20241216/CR.pdf

    Meanwhile, countless Americans are going to have to wait on $100 billion in disaster relief because the world’s richest man threw a temper tantrum. This isn’t the most democratic thing to happen in years, this is the textbook definition of oligarchy.

  5. KT Chong

    I remember Alibaba founder Jack Ma tried to intimidate the Chinese government once too many.

    The Chinese government made him disappear for three months. Then, the CPC started investigations and lawfare against him and his companies, eventually forced him to give up his company and retire. He is in exile now in Japan.

    Say whatever you want about the Chinese “commies”… they do NOT take this sort of BS from a oligarch villainaire.

  6. ocop

    At some point Musk is going to commit the cardinal sin for those in Trump’s orbit: taking too much of the spotlight off of the principal, or even worse, making him look bad.

    Steve Bannon and many others found that out the hard way and were shown the door and/or sidelined. Musk is vastly more wealthy (powerful) than his predecessors, but also has much, much more to lose if a Trump admin turns hostile. It may be wishful thinking but it seems like eventually he’ll get pushed aside to run the toothless DOGE vanity project.

    We are still going to have government by oligarchs, for oligarchs, but probbaly with less Elon.

  7. different clue

    At this point the only realistic say to counter this ” whole new form of governance” as Ramaswamy called it is to humiliate Trump so much and so often in public that he “disbands” the DOGE. A way to do that might be to injure his fragile and shatter-prone pride. A way to do that might be for millions of people to refer to ” Fake President Trump” and “President Musk” in all their writing and speaking. If millions of people could make “FakePresidentTrump” and “RealPresidentMusk” go trending on all the social media sites, Trump might not be able to pretend he doesn’t notice it.

    Likewise for Vance. “FakeViceVance” and “Vice President Ramaswamy”. Whenever any of the DemParty officeholders are negotiating or discussing something with the Republican officeholders, or are asked to talk about something, etc.; they should demand that Musk be in the room with them. They should say that since Musk is the real President, they are not even interested in even talking to a Republican without Musk in the room because without Musk in the room, how can the Republican(s) even know what the Republican(s) really think without Musk in the room to tell them? And how can the Dems know what the Repubs are thinking if Musk isn’t in the room so he can tell the Repubs what they are thinking so that the Dems can know what the Repubs are thinking?

    If Biden weren’t too weak and senile to think of it and carry it out, he would demand that Musk be standing right behind Trump when Trump takes the Oath of Office, otherwise Biden won’t even show up. ” I only show up for Real Presidents like Musk, not for Fake Presidents like Trump”.

    Maybe enough such humiliation and embarassment will get Trump to declare DOGE not even “Advisory” any more.

    Of course if Trump does that, DOGE will continue its work regardless. But that will make the actual lines of command and control even more obvious. Maybe it will heighten some contradictions past the pain-tolerance threshhold.

  8. GlassHammer

    I think …. that after years of making small inroads the internet finally captured the Whitehouse. (Much like TV did in the 1980s-1990s, when we joked about CNN running the Whitehouse.)

    To me that’s the real story, not powerful businessmen influencing both Congress and the Whitehouse. (Something that has always been a constant in American governance. )

    “Twitter reply guys” have completely replaced “reporters” and that is a massive shift in media and culture. You can’t dismiss online content as “useless user driven chatter” anymore.

  9. America, on the other hand, is sickeningly an oligarchy and it’s going from indirect to direct oligarchical control.
    ———–
    Indirect control is far more efficient, successful, and less costly to implement compared to direct control. It’s the primary reason the American propaganda apparatus outbeat the Soviet one.

    The oligarchs have been in control for decades and decades and decades. The ruling class switching to a more direct control model is because relatively their power and competence is in decline.
    Saying the quite parts outload such as,
    “we’ll coup whoever we want”
    “Only for the oil. We’re keeping the oil.”
    “The ruthless maximalisation of profit”
    Signals that the ruling class is simultaneously losing it’s ability to control the narrative, and the competence to comprehend why controlling the narrative is important.

    I say keep ripping off those rose tinted glasses. Let everyone see what our society really is without a roses and rainbow propaganda cover.

  10. mago

    I was a political punk from a young age, and there were still a few honest politicians in those long gone days. However, corruption and mendacity undoubtedly ruled. It was just more hidden.
    Now, everyone is up front and out in the open. Don’t like it? Tough. Watcha gonna do about it? Vote? Hardee har har har. Get lost.

  11. bruce wilder

    There is a conflict between political actors being played out, but it is apparently difficult to describe or analyze it accurately.

    “Democracy” doesn’t have a speaking part in this drama. It’s a prop at best, referenced by the players but inanimate.

    “Oligarchy” has a speaking role, but who or what has Trump’s Musk posse confronted? What is the nature and style of governance which has held sway in the U.S. at least since 2007-8? There is no Ancient Greek name for it that I know of. Maybe that, too, is a form of oligarchy? Certainly, it has occasioned domination of the nation by an agglomeration of financial, business and public and private bureaucratic interests talking to themselves in echo chambers. So is this just a factional spat among oligarchs? A realignment of partisans in a brand management exercise?

  12. marku52

    Well it looks like the K street lobbyists defeated the billionaires.

    Do we cheer now?

  13. Purple Library Guy

    I do think this represents a tightening of control by oligarchs. I think Oakchair is half right . . . the countries the oligarchs control are in decline, they are in decline BECAUSE of the oligarchs, but the oligarchs themselves are tightening control over those countries.

    The oligarchs are tightening control and making it more direct for two reasons. The first is that they see decline and resentment, and are instinctively tightening control to try to combat those problems . . . which is counterproductive, but they mostly don’t understand that because they’re arrogant SOBs surrounded by yes-men, for whom Dunning-Krueger is a way of life. The second is that people, particularly greedy people, and especially greedy capitalists, have a tendency to keep pushing. They want more, there is no such thing as “enough”. So when they get used to a certain level of control, they want a bit more control. They get used to cornering some level of society’s resources, they want a bigger level. They get used to a certain level of deference from society, they want more deference. At a certain point, indirectly setting the agenda isn’t enough. From vague lobbying you move to specific “Implement this legislation we wrote for you” as with ALEC. From operating behind the scenes, billionaires move closer to and then into the spotlight. I agree with Oakchair that this is a mistake. It’s the way a lot of criminals get caught–they get away with a crime, so they do it again a bit “bigger” and more audaciously until eventually they go too big and too audacious and get taken down.

  14. Purple Library Guy

    I read one article that say the real reason Musk wanted the bill killed was that it had stuff in it about restricting investment in China, which would have caused him trouble because Tesla is heavily invested in China. To me that explains a lot, because until I saw that I was really struggling to get any idea what his problem was. And dumping the whole thing because of pork (even if mostly made up), has much better optics than lobbying to take out the bit about China.

    It would explain why it was so sudden–probably he didn’t notice (have called to his attention) that one bit buried in the bill until it was almost too late.

  15. Mark Level

    I will note that despite his failed GWofTerror, Lesser Bush’s reputation with the ‘Murican people didn’t start the precipitous dive to 28% support he ended with (which coincidentally I saw is Trudeau’s latest popularity ranking; I think Macron is 7 or more points below that) until very early in his 2nd term when he went out on a Rove-pushed drive to get the (R) dummies to support gutting Medicare & Social Security.

    Now I wouldn’t doubt Americans’ stupidity or self-hating masochism in the least at this point, but I do strongly suspect that letting Elon & Ruinaswami do that on steroids might not necessarily endear the MAGA base to their God King even in the short term.

    Yes, there’s always the distraction of Identity politics (Lifestyle politics might be a better term), but if people see very rapid cuts to the social safety net, post Luigi-Mangioni, I think there could be a backlash not seen in the recent past. (Like the Terry Schiavo thing multiplied by 1,000).

    In a way it’s GOOD that they aren’t even pretending not to be peddling Feudalism and class slavery at this point. The (R)s sincerely believe in something (a stylish Boot kicking you in the face forever), the Dimmies only believe in fund-raising & don’t even try to win elections anymore. Recall that their adjustment to their Electoral Ass-Kissing is to work MOAR with their bipartisan pals!!

    You have the freedumb to be exploited, stolen from and @ss-raped (basically) by your Self-Appointed Betters at this point. Again, a lot of Slaves (in the Nietzschean sense) might enjoy this, but I do have to wonder if there won’t be some push back?

    Well, there ain’t no “Left” allowed in USA, so maybe not. The Dimmies lost the election “due to the Left”, our Narrative Masters tell us, Left at this point an empty, meaningless term that has very few bodies in evidence advocating for it. The DSA? They believe in Bernie & AOC– you might as well believe in “The Secret” or the Flat Earth Society . . .

    Only slightly O/T, but what if Sullivan & Blinky do gin up WW III openly with Russia even before Trump takes office? They’re certainly doing their best. And the first two World Wars were blundered into by exactly the kind of “thinking” these psychopaths are practicing. A bit of credit to the true Secret Master Karl Rove though, “We are an Empire now & we create our OWN reality.”* 2 decades after he declared it, it has triumped, QED.

    *(As in OWNership class.)

    “Man is a bad animal”, noted Brion Gysin, & maybe “his” time is up?

  16. bruce wilder

    Tightening control, or going from indirect to direct control — I think what Oakchair and PLG reference could be a reflection of increasing centralization of the economy as giant conglomerates have formed that take over what were once distinct and opposed businesses in an industry sector and coordinate policies in order to better extract rents. Giant “universal” banks bring together all kinds of financial services: banking, brokers, insurance, financial advisories, credit cards and so on. Media conglomerates bring together cable television, movie production, magazine and book publishing, online distribution and so on. United Health has brought together insurance, payment services, medical practice firms, hospitals, pharmaceutical benefit management, pharmacies and on and on. With such consolidation, there are fewer and fewer masters of the universe at the top of the pyramid and those few are vastly more powerful in terms of scope for rentier’s predation.

    It profoundly affects politics, as politicians lose opportunities to play firms and industries with opposing interests off against each other. A few financialized monoliths emerge with a finger in every pie.

  17. different clue

    @someofparts,

    Granted no one will be allowed to argue with President Musk on Twitter. That isn’t the way to get under Trump’s skin. The way to get under Trump’s skin is for thousands and then millions of people to celebrate and praise President Musk on Twitter to the point where Trump can pretend he doesn’t see it and smell it.

    The way to make Trump go self-humiliatingly apeshit ( hopefully on live TV or live Social Media or at a rally) is to keep praising President Musk to the skies on Twitter and everywhere else and to not even mention Trump at all. Let Trump see that he is wilting and being forgotten about in Musk’s shadow.

    Of course the DemParty officeholders could do their part by refusing to attend any Presidential function unless Musk were also standing right behind or beside Trump so that he was also the co-center of camera attention. In other words, the DemReps and the DemSens should all unanimously refuse to attend Trump’s Inauguration and also refuse to attend Trump’s State of the Union Speech unless Musk is right up there on the stage with him. Maybe to make the point sharper than sharp, the Dem Officeholders could all hang around OUTside the doors to the State of the Nation speech auditorium and refuse to go in until they personally are satisfied that Musk is standing behind the same podium that Trump is standing behind. And if Musk fails to show up at that same Trump podium, then the Dem officeholders would just stay outside the auditorium while Trump speaks.

    That would make it very clear to Trump that while half the country may consider him the “technically” President, that same half the country considers Musk the “really” President. Let Trump put THEM apples in his pipe and see how how he smokes it.

    Of course the Dems are too prissy and priggish and too steeped in the anti-ethic of masochist liberal sub-humanism to do anything like that.

  18. Mark Level

    (Sic) above– “Reaction to their Electoral Ass-Kicking” of the Dimmies– the Ass-Kissing now is the outcome (not that Kamala hadn’t already folded to Trump’s formerly “cruel, fascist” Immigrant jailing before the election.)

    Dunno if the fingers type off track or if the mind runs along on 2 tracks, but anyway wanted to correct the error.

  19. Carborundum

    A couple of key things no one ever seems to mention when they cite the Princeton study:

    1) It has an R-squared of 0.074 (i.e., it explains about 7.4% of the variance in the observed outcomes). The big takeaway, frankly, is that policymakers pretty much do their own thing without nearly as much reference to any class of external actor as our “representatives” would have us believe. I’m sure that the near ubiquitous pattern of leaving politics much better off financially than one entered is entirely unrelated .

    2) The views of average citizens and economic elites are highly correlated (0.78). As in, economic elites and average citizens want the same things over three quarters of the time.

    3) Interest groups includes public interest groups and interest groups are quite effective at shutting down change. If, as an average citizen, one wants to stop bullshit policy, working through interest groups is the way to do it.

  20. capelin

    There was a lot of other shit added to the original bill. Omnibus. 24hrs to read it all. People fed it into Ai to pull out the hidden’s.

    If you want to in general see the Elon/Trump side from a fairly large account, I might suggest https://xcancel.com/TheChiefNerd

    This is good, and on topic(s).

    Kaizen D. Asiedu
    @thatsKAIZEN
    Dec 20
    “Here’s an overview of what’s going on with the government shutdown and the failed funding bill.

    It includes a nuanced perspective on the influence of Elon and billionaires in politics.

    Feel free to send to the uninformed – legacy media doesn’t get it”

    8min

    https://xcancel.com/thatsKAIZEN/status/1869937297422233759#m

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