The response from Trump?
“If all (not only those agreed in the ceasefire deal to be released in multiple phases) prisoners are not freed by noon Saturday, the ceasefire will be revoked, and hell will be unleashed on Hamas.”
Trump has also made clear his plan to take over Gaza:
“I will owe Gaza and, as far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build parts of it. We are determined to own it, to take it. We’re going to make it a very good place for future development. The Palestinians will have no right of return to Gaza under my plan to take it over.”
And he has told both Jordan and Egypt that if they refuse to take the Palestinians, he will cut off all aid to their countries, crashing their economies.
Hamas has really only two choices: agree to ethnic cleansing in hopes of avoiding further genocide, or withhold the hostages to maintain some level of leverage, since the hostages are clearly important to Trump, if not Israel. Trump, of course, though cunning and a bully, is and always has been rather dull and undisciplined. As a bully, he can sometimes be backed down by those willing and able to stand up to him.
Israel hasn’t met its side of the deal. Until it does, Hamas can’t meet its side of the deal or it will, like Hezbollah has, lose all effective leverage.
I find it hard to predict Trump. I expect even Trump finds it hard to predict Trump. We’ll see what happens going forward, but a return to the genocide seems more than possible.
Trump proved that the President can control Israel if he wants to, and that he can end the genocide essentially at will, but all the people whispering in his year are Zionists, with no one to speak for Palestinians who is close to him.
That doesn’t bode well.
mago
Every now then when causes and conditions come together the universe burps up a cosmic monster like Stalin, Churchill* and Trump.
There are numerous examples throughout the ages of course who in power unleash war, murder and mayhem on a massive scale.
This time we’ve got a short thumbed Pepsi swilling burger eating conman reckless driver speeding toward the cliff of doom in a brake less bus.
Is there any hope for redemption, a surcease, at least a pause in the madness? Haha. Rhetorical posturing.
It’s collective karma at play, whether one buys that or not.
We’re screwed over under sideways and down, and I doubt I’ll live long enough to see it righted.
* Hitler not mentioned in the cosmic monster category because of overuse, while the gargoyle Churchill rarely is.
Eric Anderson
I mean, we all know what’s coming one way or another. Israel landgrabbing until Iran is pushed to the brink.
Ergo, this is trump style made for media bluff. It’s real intent is to send the message to local belligerents that the U.S. is willing to commit troops to the ground.
The decision is left with regional powers as to whether the U.S. military taking and holding ground in the region is better than strong arming Hamas and the Houthis into standing down. Or, whether better just to leave Israel alone to achieve their aims.
Syria is just straight up for grabs right now. Trump will use the threat of militarily taking ground in the middle east as leverage to deal with Putin. Gaza is the excuse to establsh beach head to Syria.
Ian Welsh
US troops in Gaza will not go well for Trump.
Eric Anderson
I don’t know, Ian. The zionists are just straight up messianic right now. And I’m pretty sure they you’re right in that they have a firm hold on Trump’s ear. If anyone plays Trump’s leverage by blackmail game better than Trump, it’s Mossad.
The zionists don’t just want Palestinian’s gone. They want the Shia threat neutralized entirely. From the U.S. perspective, remove the Iran threat and the entire middle east is yours.
Not advocating. Just saying, I’m confident this latest bunch of messianic god botherers are entirely crazy enough to take the Crusader road.
GrimJim
Putin is playing GRD’s Europa.
Trump is playing War with half a deck.
Musk is grinding on boars in Warcraft.
Bibi is playing a 15th level/15th level Grandfather Assassin/Illusionist using 1E AD&D pre-Unearthed Arcana rules.
The Democrats are playing with some Hot Wheels knockoffs in the corner.
The Iranians are playing Minesweeper on an old Widows Vista system.
The Palestinians are playing with a rock.
Ian Welsh
Going after Iran is seriously dangerous. Both Russia and China have real interests in Iran, and especially for China letting Iran be taken out means endangering their oil supply. This is a potentially escalatory situation.
Really Iran just needs to get nukes. Khamenei’s insane to forbid it if he’s sincere about that.
NR
What are you talking about Ian, things have never gone poorly when the U.S. sent troops to the Middle East in the past.
(I hate that discourse online has become so degraded these days that I have to say outright that that was sarcasm).
TM
Going after Iran is incredibly dangerous, but why should Trump’s administration believe that? Thus far they’ve been supine, abandoned their allies and caused minimal pain for US and Israeli interests in the region, not to mention elsewhere. The US is a cosseted child, playing carelessly around an open fire and never feeling a lick of flame to caution it against diving in with both feet.
Anonymous
Iran doesn’t want to get nukes because if it gets it, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Egypt will get their own nukes and further destabilize the region. Getting nukes also means going fully down the path of North Korea – expect forever sanctions from the entity known as the “global rules based order” and likely a high level of hostility from China and Russia, who do not desire nuclear proliferation. They already have the capability to become nuclear very quickly, deeply buried military installations that are likely to be beyond the range of smaller tactical numbers, and they can destroy Israel and the GCC with their conventional military stockpile. Going nuclear is bad domestic politics for a country that is trying to normalize, whether with the rules based order or within BRICS+.
Gien how much hostility the West has shown Russia and China, even though they not only have enough nukes to destroy US/World many times over but are essential to maintenance of everyday life in Western countries, it’s not clear if having nukes will actually deter outside hostilities even though any sane person should be scared to death of such a possibility.
someofparts
Nukes are the big point of concern for me in all of this. Everything I’ve learned up to this point indicate that Israel and the US will lose any actual military fight, just as they are in Ukraine. My enduring worry is that as it dawns on President Ahab and his gang of mad clowns that the US in in a losing position militarily and economically, they will get desperate and start launching their doomsday toys.
and then there is this – https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/the-west-is-a-demeritocracy
someofparts
Here’s another one about how China could fight back against the billionaires that back Trump. Turns out they make their real money from China. Check it out. And yeah, I will be watching with my fingers crossed hoping China steps up here, especially against the devil spawn Miriam Edelson.
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/china-should-hurt-trump-where-it