The response from Trump?
“If all (not only those agreed in the ceasefire deal to be released in multiple phases) prisoners are not freed by noon Saturday, the ceasefire will be revoked, and hell will be unleashed on Hamas.”
Trump has also made clear his plan to take over Gaza:
“I will owe Gaza and, as far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build parts of it. We are determined to own it, to take it. We’re going to make it a very good place for future development. The Palestinians will have no right of return to Gaza under my plan to take it over.”
And he has told both Jordan and Egypt that if they refuse to take the Palestinians, he will cut off all aid to their countries, crashing their economies.
Hamas has really only two choices: agree to ethnic cleansing in hopes of avoiding further genocide, or withhold the hostages to maintain some level of leverage, since the hostages are clearly important to Trump, if not Israel. Trump, of course, though cunning and a bully, is and always has been rather dull and undisciplined. As a bully, he can sometimes be backed down by those willing and able to stand up to him.
Israel hasn’t met its side of the deal. Until it does, Hamas can’t meet its side of the deal or it will, like Hezbollah has, lose all effective leverage.
I find it hard to predict Trump. I expect even Trump finds it hard to predict Trump. We’ll see what happens going forward, but a return to the genocide seems more than possible.
Trump proved that the President can control Israel if he wants to, and that he can end the genocide essentially at will, but all the people whispering in his year are Zionists, with no one to speak for Palestinians who is close to him.
That doesn’t bode well.
mago
Every now then when causes and conditions come together the universe burps up a cosmic monster like Stalin, Churchill* and Trump.
There are numerous examples throughout the ages of course who in power unleash war, murder and mayhem on a massive scale.
This time we’ve got a short thumbed Pepsi swilling burger eating conman reckless driver speeding toward the cliff of doom in a brake less bus.
Is there any hope for redemption, a surcease, at least a pause in the madness? Haha. Rhetorical posturing.
It’s collective karma at play, whether one buys that or not.
We’re screwed over under sideways and down, and I doubt I’ll live long enough to see it righted.
* Hitler not mentioned in the cosmic monster category because of overuse, while the gargoyle Churchill rarely is.
Eric Anderson
I mean, we all know what’s coming one way or another. Israel landgrabbing until Iran is pushed to the brink.
Ergo, this is trump style made for media bluff. It’s real intent is to send the message to local belligerents that the U.S. is willing to commit troops to the ground.
The decision is left with regional powers as to whether the U.S. military taking and holding ground in the region is better than strong arming Hamas and the Houthis into standing down. Or, whether better just to leave Israel alone to achieve their aims.
Syria is just straight up for grabs right now. Trump will use the threat of militarily taking ground in the middle east as leverage to deal with Putin. Gaza is the excuse to establsh beach head to Syria.
Ian Welsh
US troops in Gaza will not go well for Trump.
Eric Anderson
I don’t know, Ian. The zionists are just straight up messianic right now. And I’m pretty sure they you’re right in that they have a firm hold on Trump’s ear. If anyone plays Trump’s leverage by blackmail game better than Trump, it’s Mossad.
The zionists don’t just want Palestinian’s gone. They want the Shia threat neutralized entirely. From the U.S. perspective, remove the Iran threat and the entire middle east is yours.
Not advocating. Just saying, I’m confident this latest bunch of messianic god botherers are entirely crazy enough to take the Crusader road.
GrimJim
Putin is playing GRD’s Europa.
Trump is playing War with half a deck.
Musk is grinding on boars in Warcraft.
Bibi is playing a 15th level/15th level Grandfather Assassin/Illusionist using 1E AD&D pre-Unearthed Arcana rules.
The Democrats are playing with some Hot Wheels knockoffs in the corner.
The Iranians are playing Minesweeper on an old Widows Vista system.
The Palestinians are playing with a rock.
Ian Welsh
Going after Iran is seriously dangerous. Both Russia and China have real interests in Iran, and especially for China letting Iran be taken out means endangering their oil supply. This is a potentially escalatory situation.
Really Iran just needs to get nukes. Khamenei’s insane to forbid it if he’s sincere about that.
NR
What are you talking about Ian, things have never gone poorly when the U.S. sent troops to the Middle East in the past.
(I hate that discourse online has become so degraded these days that I have to say outright that that was sarcasm).
TM
Going after Iran is incredibly dangerous, but why should Trump’s administration believe that? Thus far they’ve been supine, abandoned their allies and caused minimal pain for US and Israeli interests in the region, not to mention elsewhere. The US is a cosseted child, playing carelessly around an open fire and never feeling a lick of flame to caution it against diving in with both feet.
Anonymous
Iran doesn’t want to get nukes because if it gets it, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Egypt will get their own nukes and further destabilize the region. Getting nukes also means going fully down the path of North Korea – expect forever sanctions from the entity known as the “global rules based order” and likely a high level of hostility from China and Russia, who do not desire nuclear proliferation. They already have the capability to become nuclear very quickly, deeply buried military installations that are likely to be beyond the range of smaller tactical numbers, and they can destroy Israel and the GCC with their conventional military stockpile. Going nuclear is bad domestic politics for a country that is trying to normalize, whether with the rules based order or within BRICS+.
Gien how much hostility the West has shown Russia and China, even though they not only have enough nukes to destroy US/World many times over but are essential to maintenance of everyday life in Western countries, it’s not clear if having nukes will actually deter outside hostilities even though any sane person should be scared to death of such a possibility.
someofparts
Nukes are the big point of concern for me in all of this. Everything I’ve learned up to this point indicate that Israel and the US will lose any actual military fight, just as they are in Ukraine. My enduring worry is that as it dawns on President Ahab and his gang of mad clowns that the US in in a losing position militarily and economically, they will get desperate and start launching their doomsday toys.
and then there is this – https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/the-west-is-a-demeritocracy
someofparts
Here’s another one about how China could fight back against the billionaires that back Trump. Turns out they make their real money from China. Check it out. And yeah, I will be watching with my fingers crossed hoping China steps up here, especially against the devil spawn Miriam Edelson.
https://huabinoliver.substack.com/p/china-should-hurt-trump-where-it
Daniel Lynch
Gaza may turn out to be Trump’s Vietnam, just as it was Biden’s Vietnam, but Trump is not going to run for a 3rd term (we hope), so why should Trump care if his Gaza policy is unpopular? Like all American politicians, Trump works for his wealthy sponsors, not for the American people.
So the Palestinian conflict may have to be decided on the battlefield. I don’t know how that would play out other than to say it could get ugly.
Anonymous
As cold blooded as it is to say this, a relatively limited round of hostilities in Palestine/Lebanon/Syria/Yemen/Iraq might be the best option for draining the remaining energy off of the US hegemony without it going nuclear. The locals are very capable fighters with a proven track record against Israel and the US, but not at a threat level that could justify use of nuclear weapons and getting up a notch. It also means pulling the US attention out of East Asia, Latin America, Africa, and maybe even South Asia and Eastern Europe.
Z
Too bad that Bibi’s Butler’s inspiring vision of a “Gaza for everyone” never was realized. You heard him say it: he only wanted good things for everyone. It’s a shame that the world can’t live up to his lofty aspirations.
Oh well, he tried …
Z
Feral Finster
https://www.caitlinjohnst.one/p/israel-admits-it-violated-the-ceasefire/
Trump and Netanyahu both know full well that the ceasefire was a sham from the outset, and that Israel never had any intention of fulfilling its obligations.
What does anyone propose to do about it? Screaming “liar!” and “no fair!” is pointless. Reward and punishment are the only language that a Trump or a Netanyahu understand.
Feral Finster
Contrary to wishful thinking, the War On Iraq was a stunning success for the United States. The war was conducted (at the express behest of Israel) with the intent to turn Iraq into a failed state and it succeeded in this goal. If there was domestic discontent, it was that American troops stayed after the initlal goal was reached and got sidetracked with nation building.
The United States then turned its tender mercies on Libya and did the same, this time not even bothering with the pretense of claiming to install anything better. Pace Syria.
In the case of Gaza, the goal will be express ethnic cleansing and genocide. Yes, Iran will be next on the chopping block. No, the other Arab states will not lift a finger.
bruce wilder
“ Khamenei’s insane to forbid” nukes
I credit him with rare sanity on this score. Too rare today.
There was a time when more people justly feared the madness of threats of nuclear retaliation.
Humans have foolishly normalized nuclear weapons, rationalizing through groundless speculation their “tactical use” and even more foolishly, questioning whether retaliation threats could be carried out.
Israel’s cultivation of the idea that they have nukes and can and will use them in an extremis of their own choosing is the madness as is their obsession with a development program their adversary has foresworn.
GrimJim
Israel never had any intention of honoring the cease fire.
I don’t know why anyone would ever believe they would!
Like the United States, Israel has never made any agreement or treaty without intention aforethought that they would break it the moment they felt it was to their advantage.
Revelo
This cease fire was just that, a cease fire to allow each side to rest and get some things it wanted (hostages in the case of Israel) before war resumes. If Hamas thought otherwise, or if the things they planned to get during the cease fire won’t help when war resumes, then they were fools.
Mark Level
This was all entirely predictable of course. RoW (the Rest of the World) knows the US is “not agreement-capable” (as the US’s Native peoples learned centuries ago), and Israel is a “state” that is really only a massive terrorism-genocide-murder cult.
I don’t see the Israeli public really wanting the hostages back badly enough to stop mass-murdering Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza. Individual families will be greatly angered, but the magic words are “Hannibal Directive.”
The one silver lining I see in the Dark Cloud is that so many Palestinians have been displaced, even if the 14% of Gazans murdered does not mean the race of Palestinians will be annihilated forever. Trump’s recent meeting with the cowardly Jordanian King was revealing. Trump demanded he “take them” from Gaza, as Larry Johnson pointed out that would be akin to signing his own execution papers. He hemmed & hawed, then in the limo afterwards he said he will NOT take them.
Another positive fact: the Israeli “Army”, such as it is, was already exhausted back in October when Hezbollah kicked their asses in Southern Lebanon, which is why they agreed to a (fake, of course) cease fire. Also I have heard that despite sectarianism in Lebanon, more people have sided with the Shia who are the targets in the South. To be fair, this is mainly the Christian populace, not so much the Sunnis, though their head’s will be on the chopping block with every other Arab in the region should the “Greater Israel” Project ever be realized. Lots of suicides among IDF soldiers returning home, also many simply won’t show up to their units (per Max Blumenthal, nearly always a reliable source.) Trump won’t put “boots on the ground” (or will limit it to highly paid contractors & SEAL steroid types who love killing for its own sake). So who/ how will they get all those remaining 85% (or so) of surviving civilians to die? Palestinians are already the majority in Jordan, they have big #s in Latin America, Michigan, and elsewhere. Those people could return when the Beast exhausts or destroys itself– which might be delayed as much as 10 years–? More than that I think is unlikely, especially given the divisions within Izzy society between the Mad Mullahs of Murder and the Secular Business class (many of whom have already departed.)
I won’t call it a silver lining yet, but also the mood in RoW seems to be moving against the Zionists the more they trumpet their savagery and the Murder Cult. Now the leaders of “the West” will try to keep the Reaper killing, but civil society will slowly make those governments edge away from the MC. I already mentioned that Belgium reportedly will label the Genocide as what it is. (Have to go check, however, in case the PTB were blackmailed or bullied into backing down.)
I agree with some of Grim Jim’s take, especially:
“The Democrats are playing with some Hot Wheels knockoffs in the corner.
The Iranians are playing Minesweeper on an old Widows Vista system.”
I don’t think the Palestinians are “playing with a rock,” however, the Qassam Brigades and Hamas remain at full military strength, even Blinky agreed before exiting for the graveyard he gets his meals from that Hamas had not been “degraded” in the least.
Agreed that the Iranians and the Lebanese Sunni need to get their act together SOON, or they will pay the price with everyone else. . . Also, when will the Turks and Israelis go head to head for the scraps of Syria? Some have claimed that the Mossad now classifies Turkiye as a bigger threat to “long term security” than the Native Canaanites. (I don’t know if this is correct, but we’ve all heard the story about the frog & the scorpion crossing the river. It applies in spades to folks like Netanyahu & Erdogan.)
A lot of balls in the air . . . But let’s go back to a recent post by Ian about Western decline– The US still has troops and an Embassy in Iraq, it destroyed that country, but in the long term was it a “win”? Did the U.S. win in Afghanistan? Nope. In Vietnam? Nope. Can they meaningfully challenge Ghina? It is to laugh . . . Americans and especially French not so welcome across Africa (apart from a few Quisling regimes.)
I don’t think “The Man In the High Castle” counter-intuitive will prevail in the long run. A world ruled by a Nazi-like Cult was PK Dick’s great basis for a story. But it remains hard to achieve. And the people running Israel and the US are not known for competence (apart from mass murder and Narrative control) so if we are not living in an AI-created “Matrix” controlled by larger forces, while I have little if any optimism, I do not think that Evil will win decisively in the foreseeable future.
Purple Library Guy
Don’t think it was ever intended to last, so this is hardly a surprise. It’s not like Trump wanted a real ceasefire–he just wanted to be able to say that he could do it and Biden couldn’t. After that headline was out, he no longer cared, and Netanyahu knew it.
Nate Wilcox
His convo with Putin today showed he’s serious about getting the US out of Ukraine. It’s always ominous when the Empire abandons a front. Biden cut his losses on Afghanistan just in time to sink his chips in Ukraine. Trump may be doing the same move to the Middle East.
Clonal Antibody
Trump appears to have lit a fire under the tails of Arab countries>
https://bsky.app/profile/dropsitenews.com/post/3lhzb5b5c6k2m
Quote:
Breaking News | Al-Arabiya TV is sharing preliminary details of Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, citing an Egyptian source.
➤ Timeline: Set to unfold over 3 to 5 years **without displacing Gaza’s residents**
➤ Phase 1: Removal of rubble & war remnants.
➤ Phase 2: Construction of residential complexes, beginning in Rafah & gradually extending northward.
➤ Reconstruction would involve Arab countries, particularly Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, & Jordan, with extensive international participation.
➤ Specific details of the plan expected to be revealed next week.
The source also revealed that a five-party summit is being organized to take place in Riyadh before the emergency Arab summit in Cairo on February 27 involving Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan, with the aim of coordinating positions before the larger Arab Summit.
Cairo’s reconstruction plan for Gaza will be the focus of the summit.
Feral Finster
@Bruce Wilder:
““ Khamenei’s insane to forbid” nukes
I credit him with rare sanity on this score. Too rare today.
There was a time when more people justly feared the madness of threats of nuclear retaliation.
Humans have foolishly normalized nuclear weapons, rationalizing through groundless speculation their “tactical use” and even more foolishly, questioning whether retaliation threats could be carried out.”
The nuclear weapons genie is not going to go back into the bottle, and wishing won’t make it so. Nuclear weapons are here, and Iran is foolish not to get them, as this is one thing that would deter Israel.
elkern
I’m far more worried about Bioweapons than Nukes.
The devastation from nuclear weapons is comparatively local, in space and time (Hiroshima is still a city), unless the Big Dogs (USA, Russia) get into a massive “exchange”.
Theoretically, a perfect Bioweapon kills only the Bad Guys, but that’s not a Theory that should ever be tested.
different clue
@Elkern,
I read about a science fiction story ( never saw the story itself) based on a version of your genetically targeted bioweapon.
White race scientists had invented a disease designed to only kill Black people and they turned it loose. And then they discovered just how many White people had unknown or unacknowledged Black genetics.