I don’t know who will win. I would prefer the Democrats do so that Biden can govern a bit more and because McConnell truly is awful.
Anyway, use comments to discuss the runoff, results, consequences, and so on.
I don’t know who will win. I would prefer the Democrats do so that Biden can govern a bit more and because McConnell truly is awful.
Anyway, use comments to discuss the runoff, results, consequences, and so on.
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nobody
I fully expect a GOP sweep, in part because the US is a sham democracy, and in part because Southern Americans are truly awful people.
sleepy
Does that also include southern dems, or just southern repubs?
Willy
I have a dream.
1. The Dems win, overcoming the (far more obviously) corrupt republicans.
2. The Dems get a taste of that neoliberal PTB coin and then sadly themselves, start acting all corrupt.
3. S Brennan calls them so many names that they repent in a spate of guilt and start acting more like FDR (well maybe FDR plus MLK is more desirable but beggars can’t be choosers).
4. We celebrate, march-dancing around to Pharrels “Happy” song with S Brennan hoisted on our shoulders.
Who’s with me?
someofparts
Oh, I get it. Southerners are awful because they are racist reactionaries. Makes sense I guess if you forget what a large part of the population is black and that the South is theirs just as much as it belongs to anyone white, or are they awful too?
Hugh
Democrats ran their 2020 campaign on an anti-Trump platform. That was successful at the Presidential level when it was directly against Trump. It was much less successful down ballot. In Georgia, it is still a tall order for the Democrats to win either of these seats, even with OK candidates running against a couple of crap, crooked Republican candidates. If the Democrats had run on a strong positive platform, Medicare4All: if you get sick, we’ll have your back, they would have done better nationally and the Georgia races would be irrelevant.
js
The blacks in the south don’t vote Republican.
Eric Anderson
Now, before things get too carried away, can we all just agree that nobody ‘meant’ to say:
“ … because [generally, white] Southern Americans are truly awful people.”
Carry on.
Eric Anderson
Hugh:
I think that would be true of ordinary circumstances.
But, this might be a true test of demographics. Word on the street is the dems have significantly increased the voter pool by banging on doors down there. Record turnouts on both sides?
Too lazy to look at the past margins of victory for candidates down there of late.
Does anyone know how many more dems would have to turn out to overcome traditional margins?
bruce wilder
It is not who votes or how they vote that win elections — people given little real choice and drowning in misleading propaganda vote at random basically relative to their intetests or implicit policy preferences; that is, they are as likely to being making a mistake regarding how well their favored candidate represents them as they are to align themselves with a candidate bound to do things that satisfy the voter.
For Hugh to invest so much in fantastical counterfactuals — “If the Democrats had run on a strong positive platform, Medicare4All: if you get sick, we’ll have your back, they would have done better nationally and the Georgia races would be irrelevant” — is a fine way to hide from reality If we lived in an alternate reality where Hugh was not mistaken in his political opinions, professional politicians and their expert consultants and fund raisers would be turning to Hugh for campaign advice and winning handily. Here in reality the majority of Democrats holding office are adamantly opposed to M4all, so of course they do not run on promises to enact it.
Here in reality, in most districts among likely voters, a Democrat committed to M4all would be inviting donors to contribute to the campaigns or rivals and opponents and a tsunami of anti-M4all propaganda would be deployed against any movement to enact it. Disinformation would saturate teevee, radio and social media until people were again voting randomly, unable to translate interests into policy preferences or attach policy preferences correctly to candidates likely to act in favor of such preferences.
The futility of rooting for Dems, when the Dems oppose every good and decent thing, is a fact of the American political system. They are your enemies, too. Acknowledging as much is liberating to the spirit, even though we may all end up in the ruin built by this “system”.
anon
My prediction is that Ossoff and Warnock will win by the same small margins as Biden did in the general election. Probably a difference of 10-20k votes. There will be a recount.
Eric Anderson
Bruce, bringing the nuanced shade.
But it feels like both you and Hugh are overcomplicating things. I think anon is closer.
And I think at the end of the day it will be because of demographics. The republicans are maxed out. No more room to grow. Massive amounts of money have pushed dem voter registration programs down there among demographics that do have room to grow. And we’re beginning to see the young/PoC replace the old by razor thin margins. It’s a possible example of the republican rule by minority facade beginning to show cracks.
Eric Anderson
Adding, that the theorized increase in dem turnout is premised upon rejection of everything loeffler, perdue, and trump stand for, as opposed to anything positive warnock or ossof are limply proposing.
Eri Anderson
Willy, I’m not sure how you made such great lemonade out of the lemons you used in your recipe, but — Cheers! I’ll drink to that!
Lemonade, that is 🙂
Hugh
At midnight out East, it looks like Warnock will win a close one, by about 20,000. The Purdue-Ossof race is razor thin. Purdue is ahead by a couple thousand but with votes still out there. Likely recounts all around.
In the general down ballot, the Democrats lost ground not because of progressives but because conservative Democrats lost. Down ballot voters were looking for more than just not Trump. The Democrats could have tried to stake out a position on a position important to voters, but they didn’t.
Hugh
“a position on a position important to voter” should read “a position important to voters”
Eric Anderson
Hugh,
I’m with you man. But you have to give some credit to Bruce’s theory.
That little florida shit weasel gaetz just pulled a red menace scare tweet today.
Lotta olds down there. If only the republicans could figure out a way to keep people from being born? Oh, wait. Something about that sounds off …
Mark Pontin
It appears Warnock has it. All right.
Ten Bears
Now, before things get too carried away … there are truly awful people in Oregon, Montana. Massachusetts. We can no more build a wall – from Eureka California to Eureka Montana – to wall ’em out than a wall across Mexico, or Mason/Dixon, to wall them in. Mia culpa ~ I once proposed walling off the south, until it was pointed out the majority that would trapped in there with the trash. It’s a war crime to hide children in church basements, but they do it anyways.
Round ’em up, at gunpoint if need be, stuff ’em into cattle-cars and “Escort” them – for their own safety, of course – to a reservation somewhere out in the hinterlands. Preferably Mars, or the Moons of Neptune, but Saudi Arabia has lots of room. I hear they’ve figured out how to drink oil.
Stirling S Newberry
It is 4:40:51 EST and Ossoff is ahead but the race is too close to call.
someofparts
Yeesh, ten bears, I watched parts of Dances with Wolves again last night and realized where your name comes from. Cool.
Warnock is a good win and I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in Congress. He has been the pastor at Reverend King’s old church, which is a position of considerable esteem around here, and it looks he has the full support of black leadership in Atlanta. It was a pleasure to watch him score points debating Loeffler by pointing out that she doesn’t act like a Christian. Fun to watch Loeffler try to explain how looting and defrauding your constituents lines up with the gospel.
David Purdue is in office because Karl Rove hacked our elections to put his daddy in office. Rove put Sonny Purdue in office to keep Georgia from protecting itself from predatory lending. We briefly had the strongest anti-predatory lending laws in the country when Roy Barnes was governor. The first thing Sonny did on taking office was to strike down those laws.
The demographics in Atlanta keep changing so fast it is hard to keep up with them. Ring suburbs that were white flight destinations when I was young are now majority-minority and not strictly black either. There is a large and growing Hispanic population, as one would expect, but also large populations of Asian immigrants somehow. White flight has now moved to the suburbs beyond the ones adjacent to the city and they are some of the fastest-growing counties in the country.
Even though it is far from the whole story, there are plenty of awful people in power around here, and they cluster heavily among David Purdue’s voter base. What kind of low-life cheats employees at dollar stores out of their pay? I guess that would be the kind who is put in office to be sure they remain exposed to predatory lending. Anybody short of Attila the Hun would be an improvement over Purdue.
I wish Ossoff were a better candidate. He looks and sounds like the kind of young progressive who is starting to move here because of all the tech and film work in the city, so it has been interesting to see him try to make headway against Purdue, who is the candidate of the Gingrich old guard. I figure Ossoff has the full support of the black electorate here as well as decent support from everyone else so I don’t know what the problem is. He always runs as a cipher, one of those centrist Dems who never ever lets you know where they really stand on things. That’s what puts me off about him, but I’m not sure if that is the reason he has trouble winning.
Ché Pasa
Except sometimes via initiative and referendum, we aren’t allowed to vote on policy. We vote on personality. Which of the cartoon characters presented to us do we like better. That can be a complicated decision for many people, very simple for others.
In the Georgia runoffs, it was probably easy for voters to decide which candidate had the more appealing/less objectionable personality. Whatever they said about policy was largely irrelevant, as everyone knows campaign promises are all but meaningless when the candidate reaches elected office.
What little I saw of the two Rs campaigning was pretty straightforward racist, classist, run for the hills the Reds are coming to eat your daughters and rape your wives nonsense. Perdue tried to be the Good Ol’ Boy; herself was acting more like a ditzy cheerleader, but whatever, their capaign personalities were dated at best, ultimately ridiculous. On the other hand, the Kaos Agents effectively suppressed the white vote all over Georgia, so no Dem should take cheer from their victory.
Ossoff presented himself as Mayor Pete’s doppleganger — with a bite. Not so much likable as forceful, ambitious and determined against more of the same old shit. Blah blah. Warnock, on the other hand, was clearly going for the Good Pastor look and act (yes, I know, he really is the pastor at Ebenezer Baptist) and it worked for him. Worked better after his religiosity was attacked by Loeffler. In this case, attacking his strength, always a winner for Rs, failed.
I’ll wait for the recounts, but I suspect both Ds won narrowly, regardless of the poison spitting from the Rs, and it will make very little difference in the Senate. The body will still be an obstacle to progressive policy. By design and intent.
Vote Finder
Hold on a minute now. Let’s see what we can do.
Mary Bennett
I suspect Warnock wins and Ossoff loses. Loeffler is a Yankee carpetbagger from Illinois, I think, and the tall, blonde and vapid brand is becoming dated. I read somewhere that Mitch McConnell, of all people, demanded she be appointed. In a federal system, which is what Republicans claim to prefer, that should have been none of his business.
Ossoff understands that he has nothing to lose and has been campaigning aggressively, but what he is hoping for is to benefit from the voters who come out for Warnock. I am glad I don’t have to make that choice between him and Perdue. Ossoff strikes me as the kind of guy who skims off other people’s work.
Eric Anderson
Well, looks like we will have at least two years of being governed by the centrist senescence of the #RetirementHomeTriumvirate.
I anticipate a revolutionary policy implementation of universal basic prune juice and depends for all.
We’ve finally arrived.
edmondo
If Mitch had sent $2000 to everyone, no one would have heard of Warnock nor Ossoff. Mitch fucked up, big time.
Who knew Georgia had their own Pete Buttigieg?
NR
Well, Trump cost the Republicans control of the Senate. Of course, the Democrats will get nothing done because of feckless leadership and the likes of Joe Manchin torpedoing anything even remotely good, but still, it’s poetic justice.
S Brennan
Edmondo, your remark is spot on but……………………………..
…………..”Mitch effed up, big time.”
Dunno, Biden was an earnest supporter of Obama’s attempt to destroy Social Security with R help. Mitch wants to destroy SSI but…..it be a lot better if the neoD’s were to blame. Maybe Mitch is playing his cards better than we think?
Obama saddled the country with Obamacare which prevented the expansion of Medicare and continues to protect the predatory practices of Med-Insurers and Big Pharma while eroding Medicare’s protection. And Obama did that on a straight party vote, R’s didn’t have to lift a finger.
As Bruce Wilder said:
“The futility of rooting for Dems, when the Dems oppose every good and decent thing, is a fact of the American political system. They are your enemies, too. Acknowledging as much is liberating to the spirit, even though we may all end up in the ruin built by this “system”.
anon y'mouse
Southern Americans are not “awful people”. like everyone else in this propagandized country, they do believe some crazy things, though. like the less government to help or hinder ANYone, the better, since they don’t want to pay for it generally and it turns into a bureaucratic nightmare just as likely to stymie you (due to old boy networks controlling everything in their own favor and everyone else’s detriment–in other words, just like everywhere in the country).
**escapee after 5 years in the south
different clue
If the 2 Democrats win this election in Georgia, the R Senators will look for a D Senator to switch labels to R if they pay him enough. Manchin seems a possibility. If they can pay him enough.
If Manchin goes R, will Sanders go D to restore the Ds tie in the Senate? If he does, will the Rs find another D Senator to pay enough to switch sides to R? If they do, will Angus King of Maine, the oh-so-proud Independent, go D if the Ds can pay him enough?
If such a back and forth switching of falling dominoes were to happen, I would expect Manchin to be the first triggering domino.
That’s just my intuition . . . muh feels, of course.
someofparts
Well, it’s not just an old boy thing anymore. State government, yeah, they still run that. City of Atlanta has been run by black PMC for a while by now.
Charming little lake community just east of town was home to a Klan grand dragon in my parents’ day. Now the former dragon’s lesbian granddaughter lives there and the community has changed a lot.
Trinity
Well, I’m glad people are finally realizing that there is no essential difference between the Repugs and the Dembos. Just their message, tailored to their voters, with no basis in reality or intention.
I’m from the south, heck I’m in the south as I write this. But I’m not of the south, I was born in that winter wasteland called the north where the crabby people live. Life is better in the warmth and sunshine, IMHO. People in general are kinder, too. Except the racists, who are nasty and should do us all a favor and move elsewhere. Living as I do just outside that special region known as The Swamp, the kindest people of are people of color, no question. Around here, there are too many white masters of the universe. Can’t wait to head further south.
As far as the spatial distributions of voters, and the surprising (to me, anyway) support for Dembos, it has more to do with economics than anything. Small towns are disappearing along with jobs in rural areas. Everyone was herded closer to cities to survive, city people in general lean left meaning fewer radical, racist Repugs to vote from the hinterlands. As I understand it, this is especially true in GA. COVID and telework are reversing this process but it will take time.