So, Merz is likely Germany’s next Chancellor. He’s said one good thing:
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.
“After Donald Trump‘s statements, it is clear that the Americans, or, at least Trump’s American demographic and this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
Excellent. The first step in recovery from being a slave, or vassal, is admitting the problem and deciding to stand up.
The problem is that Merz is rabidly anti-Russia, pro-Israel, and stupid. If Germany wants to re-arm, it has to stop its de-industrialization, and that means it needs cheap energy, which right now can only be supplied by Russia. Then, it needs to massively invest in tech and science, because it’s far behind China, the US, Japan, and South Korea. Its industry is almost all legacy 20th century industry.
If Europe’s going to re-arm, where will they get their weapons from? The US? China? Russia? They have to have their own arms industry.
Germany’s been doing a pretty good job of moving to electrification, but during this transition, they’re going to need cheap oil and gas. They also need to invest in new forms of nuclear power which are safer and cheaper, in order to provide an electrical backbone (and to catch up in tech).
All of this is going to take a lot of money, and Germany will need to force companies to stay in Germany and invest in research and new products. That means raising taxes on the rich and corporations, and re-jiggering the tax code to force reinvestment of profits into research and new production.
Merz isn’t the sort of guy who’s going to want to put top marginal tax rates back up to 80 or 90 percent, end stock options, smash CEO and exec pay, and so on.
Still, at least Merz has got it through his thick head that America is Europe’s overlord and something should be done about that.
But actually, stopping Germany’s decline requires making Russia a trade partner, not an enemy. The same goes for almost all of Europe. Until Europeans get over their paranoid delusions about Russia, they’re going to continue their decline. Again, the same goes for China. If Europe insists on being hostile to both Russia and China, even as the South doesn’t want to do business with them, there is no path to save the “garden.”
bruce wilder
He has some “guts” or he has watched a key focus group as part of the recent electoral campaign. I am betting the latter. Former Blackrock executives use their gut to judge the zeitgeist’s implications for financial returns. And electoral returns, of course.
Ordinary people have, in their prejudiced, intuitive way, become both leading indicators and lagging responders. Elites are responding, but without any real clear understanding of the world changing beneath their feet. The elites think they can keep it all going as it has been. And, that they themselves have no responsibility for understanding design and consequences.
Eclair
” Its (Germany) industry is almost all legacy 20th century industry.”
Sounds like Britain in the late 1950’s – early ’60’s. They made great cars: Rolls, Bentley, MG. Top notch bicycle: Raleigh. Raincoats: (Burberry.) And marmalade.
Within a decade, Japan, then South Korea, was eating their (plowman’s) lunch.
Mark Level
What bruce brings up is highly relevant. I too had heard of Merz’s pimping for Blackrock, went and looked at his Wikipedia page, linked here– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Merz
In “Private Sector Career (2009-18) you can see all the Globalist scum he works for. Does he care a great deal about Germany? Count me as dubious, Ernst & Young etc. are also big clients. He will do as he is told, if Germany is going to continue to be de-industrialized (I’m assuming Baerbock and those “Green” clowns are out? But that may change nothing) he will throw a friendly salute and click his heels and obey.
He sounds like Trump without the charisma or (occasional) smarts. I am changing my German last name in the next couple of months. That is a sick society that I want no association with. (Also if I move to Mexico my current last name is unpronounceable, on a level that many Czech names, say, would be here).
Germany was never de-Nazified and probably never will be. (Certainly not during my lifetime.) I think Freud’s theories about the “Anal retentive” psychological type occurred to him as a resident of the German speaking Welt. The only good thing I can say about Germany is that it doesn’t have Nuclear Weapons (which Baerbock and that fake “Green” crew were demanding.)
Will any European states wise up and leave their voluntary slavery? I think the Irish, Spanish, possibly the Italians have publics who may push for that. Also, since “everyone loves a winner”, I expect the tacitly-allied neighbor states with Russia list will grow from the current one, which includes Belarus, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia etc.
Could the EU drop from the current 27 states to 22 or fewer? It’s not impossible. But it will still be hugely authoritarian, bureaucratic and failed. It will be a small and toxic Garden, while the former “Jungle” in Asia, Africa, China, Russia, hopefully Latin America (apart from Argentina) will be on a material and cultural climb to a brighter future.
Curt Kastens
The words of Merz mean absolutely nothing. It is just hot air escaping from a ballon.
He is clearly a puppet. He was no doubt told to say those things by his handlers to muddy the waters and to get Germany to buy more US weapons.
In the Grand Scheme of things the German election was no more important than a football match between Manchester and Munich or a hockey game between Toronto and Boston.
What is important is that since 2010 global warming has been increasing at a rate of .36° C per decade and has more that that likely been increasing since above that level since 2023. I am not saying that this increase is important to encourage anyone to try to stop or even slow the increase. I am saying that it is the increasing rate of global warming that will determine the future of Germany and the EU, and Canada, and the USA and Russia, and China, and Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and Japan, and Australia, and the Koreas and Taiwan, and Cuba, and Haiti, and the UK, and THAT is why it is important.
If AI is ever real and not just some slick Disney Robot it will not destroy humanity because it would be smart enough to know that it does not have to.
Jan Wiklund
Except that nuclear power is almost the most expensive power there is. See for example https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth.
The price fall of renewables is a matter of economies of scale and learning curves, says Our world in data.
Curt Kastens
I was just thinking that there is actually a very simple solution to Europes problems.
That is to invite Canada to become a member of the European Union.
Europe’s resource problems would be solved almost over night, if Canada stopped sending resources to the USA. Or, it only sent resources to the USA that Europe did not need.
It that were to happen I think that it would prove that Brian Berletic is right. He claims that all of this theater about the USA desiring peace with Russia and maybe even China is just a sham. If I understand what he is saying correctly what is really happening is a division of labor between the US and its collaborators (so called allies) to maintian western dominance over the rest of the world.
In February of 2022 my opinion was that Russia was being backed in to a corner by the west because the west was hoping that in a failed war with Ukraine the Russian Government would collapse. That was basically the same hope that HItler had. I thought that it would likely succeed myself. But by 2023 it appeared to me that it would not succeed. Back in 2023 with the failure of the Ukrainian offensive it appeared to me that the US did not have a plan B.
At this point I am not at all certian that the division of labor among different US colonies is the plan B as Brian Berlitic claims. The plan B might be to cannabalize US colonies for the benifit of the US MIC. But that canabal plan could also be plan C.
Humans make their plans and the Gods laugh.
Curt Kastens
As a point of clarification Canada becoming a member of the EU will solve Europe’s resource problems overnight if we completely ignore the effect that global heating is going to have on the world in the near future.
capelin
Think of all the energy we’d save if we stopped blowing things up.
Z
Europe is chirping aggressively about supporting Ukraine, even talking of sending troops to Ukraine, because their only play, their only potential leverage to get a seat at the table of the negotiations to end the war and get some of the spoils, is to threaten that there will not be peace without them agreeing to it.
This has come about because Trump is trying to cut in front of the line and negotiate the spoils of Ukraine with Putin and also get War Pimp Zelensky to sign over Ukrainian mineral rights. The money that the US gave Ukraine was basically a grant though, not a loan, while the money that Europe gave them was a loan. Trump is trying to make the grant into a loan retroactively and then place US claims in front of Europe’s loan on the basis that the money that the US gave Ukraine was much more than what Europe gave.
The dark assumption to Trump’s strategy though is that Europe can’t do anything about Trump’s bullying because US has got more military might than Europe. Europe is not going to go to war with the US, of course, so they are using the Ukrainian war now as a proxy instrument against the US and threaten to continue it in order to null and void Trump’s and Putin’s peace negotiations.
By the way, UK gave Ukraine $5B more today, a big wad of cash for them, and Canada is giving Ukraine $5B cash from confiscated Russian money in their country and also some more weapons. So, essentially Canada is also tossing in against the US on this, probably seeing that it’s best to use this friction to ally themselves with Europe.
Z
miss jenkins
Former Blackrock executives use their gut to judge the zeitgeist’s implications for financial returns. And electoral returns, of course.
Pete Buttiegieg recently announced identity politics isn’t good for the dems. Pete Buttigieg IS identity politics.
Pete Buttigieg may un-gay himself if the price and fame are right.
Purple Library Guy
Agreed with Wiklund. Neither Germany nor anyone else needs to “invest in new forms of nuclear power which are safer and cheaper to provide electrical backbone (and to catch up in tech.)” Nuclear power as a technology is so last century. Not that it was any good last century; using a bomb in slow motion to power a steam engine using materials that will get brittle and weird as they’re irradiated was never a smart idea. And there are NO “safer and cheaper” new forms of nuclear power on the horizon. Small modular reactors suck. There should be no need for a detailed takedown of them because nobody has ever advanced any decent evidence of them being remotely good for anything. In general, it seems clear that with nuclear, “safer” and “cheaper” is a “pick at most one” kind of choice. You can have safe nuclear reactors (not counting waste). You can have . . . less ridiculously expensive nuclear reactors. You can have nuclear reactors that are both unsafe and ridiculously expensive. But you can’t have nuclear reactors that are both safe and cheap(er).
Nuclear power is fundamentally difficult to make better, because the smaller a reactor is the less efficient it is, but if you go with larger ones that make better sense in terms of the physics of them, that means they’re megaprojects which tend to have major cost and time overruns. The only way to minimize galloping costs on these megaprojects is to standardize design, but that means not improving them. And there isn’t much market for nuclear power because it’s so damn expensive, so not that many plants are going to be built at a time, so to save much money a standardized design would have to stay the same for decades.
In Germany nuclear power is a particularly stupid idea going forward, because with climate change they are likely to see more and more droughts of the sort that left some of their biggest rivers dry a couple summers ago. Nuclear power plants need rivers to cool them; when the rivers run dry, they have to shut down.
The whole “baseline power” thing seems to be getting increasingly passe, as storage gets cheaper and grids get more flexible. Still, if they want to research something baseline-y, how about geothermal?
Solar improves much, much faster than nuclear possibly could because a solar panel is a small thing manufactured in mass quantities.
Purple Library Guy
I kind of wish Wagenknecht’s new party had gotten 0.03% more vote. They were THAT close to the threshold for seats.
One interesting thing about the German election is that the AfD increased its vote by 10%, but the far left ALSO increased its vote by 10%. And while the sort of “traditional” right wing party increased its vote, the “free market” right wing party tanked. This is being pitched as a move to the right in German politics, but to me it looks like a move away from status-quo-centrism and neo/ordoliberalism, towards everything else, particularly “outsiders”.
jeremy
To write anything about Merz and not mention Blackrock seems deliberately remiss.
joey_n
Mark Level,
The story I’m told, regarding de-Nazification in Germany, was that it was more effective in the Soviet-controlled GDR than in the US- and UK-controlled FRG. That same US is said to have supported the Nazis early on in WWII and recruited some ex-Nazis after it. And all these US military bases are still on (reunified) German soil, and I’m also told that no peace treaty has been signed between Germany and the USA or UK.
Mark Level
joey_n, you are correct. In East Germany, they had reasons to out and punish their Nazis. As somebody noted in a previous post, they did so and executed many (Nuremberg trial type process.) They let a few scientists and skilled actors become state assets.
Trump is talking about removing ALL US troop from Nato Countries added after 1997, which would be from most of E. Europe. The big question is if the US MIC will cooperate, or stiff him like last time, when they openly disobeyed his directive to leave Syria to the cheers of the Dems and the MSM. He seems to be much more forceful in removing the 5th column within the MIC at this point, however.
As to Berletic’s claims, referenced above by Curt K, he could be correct, he’s usually quite insightful, but in this case I’m dubious. When I sign on to the internet, my “pocket” has stories “I might be interested in” (& also bs advertisements.) This morning they had a BBC story, collectively crying and wetting their pants because the US voted WITH Russia on a UN resolution viz Ukraine!!
The Atlantacist Class in EUrope has always been more Dem.-aligned, at least since 2000. Note how the Bush Torture and Endless Wars regime alienated many “allies” apart from say the Poodle Tony Blair (or B.liar) during Bush Jr’s eight years. The EU Leadership are smug Elitists cut from the same cloth as the Dem party (I laugh whenever Buttigieg’s name as the new savior is mentioned), Trump and his MAGA base clearly don’t like nor align with these types. I predict the Albatross that is Old Colonialist Europe will be left on its own by Trump to tread water, or to die off slowly. (And will more likely follow the latter path.)
Z’s update is valuable and points the same direction as the preceding. Even with Trudeau out Canada will be led by the same smug, smiley-faced fascist wannabes. Naked Capitalism among others covers this disgusting story from Canada of the jailing of Yves Engler for responding to an uber-Zionist woman’s posts in his Twitter feed (X is bullshit), jailing and persecuting him for “hate speech” presumably by criticizing the Israeli genocide. https://mondoweiss.net/2025/02/silencing-dissent-the-arrest-of-yves-engler-and-the-criminalization-of-political-speech-in-canada/ I presume nobody on this site apart from Purple Library Guy, who loudly supported Trudeau robbing the Trucker protester’s bank accounts without due process (which was overturned in the courts) & Tallifer in the rare appearance here would support such openly fascistic censorship? Mondoweiss covereed this thoroughly if it seems too insane to be true: https://mondoweiss.net/2025/02/silencing-dissent-the-arrest-of-yves-engler-and-the-criminalization-of-political-speech-in-canada/
I hope Ian is following & will give his take on the Engler arrest and prosecution in a future post.
The Atlanticist Ghouls and the EU Ghouls are kin, psychologically: they are the face of Friendly Fascism, polite and “diverse” viz sexuality and race (which I support, but not when it is paired with Zionist mass extermination and US Imperial overreach.) Canada is thoroughly in that Camp, which is why the MAGAt leader Trump has targeted them.
Oil & water don’t mix. Trump says the ugly parts out loud, he doesn’t bother with the “Rules Based Order” bullshit, like the Biden admin saying that since they dropped some food aid from the skies while letting Bibi keep the aid trucks out and starving and denying food and medicine to the Canaanites, they “supported” the Palestinian population!! (Cretinous Joe literally said that he was a great “friend” to the Palestinians and “protected” them from excessive force after Oct. 2023. I can’t be bothered to look something so absurd up, but it’s out there.)
Mark Level
Sorry for the dual posting of the Mondoweiss link. I should’ve had breakfast & tea before posting.
Oakchair
As others have said nothing changed but superficial appearances.
The Germen government will go from an establishment center-left to center-right coalition to an establishment center-right to center-left coalition.
Even when anti-establishment parties enter coalition governments they rarely enact any meaningful or structural changes. See Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Sweden.
Short from winning the AfD has the best outcome they could hope for. With BSW –their closets competitor– failing to enter parliament they now have a monopoly on that section of politics.
How much longer will the Germen voters stomach going from establishment coalition to establishment coalition until they pull the lever for AfD?
Soredemos
@Purple Library Guy
Nuclear is in fact perfectly safe. The biggest high profile failures of it were due to various forms of bureaucratic mismanagement, and also, despite all the movies and shitty HBO dramas, didn’t actually kill very many people (Fukushima killed literally no one except IIRC one guy who panicked during the evacuation). Pointing out the vast body count of dams os perhaps cheap because those aren’t always built for power generation, but likely also more people have been killed by things like wind turbine fans falling on them than we’re killed by nuclear.
Nuclear is slow to build and expensive, those are the actually valid criticisms. There’s no time left for the ten to fifteen years to build one properly. Though the money argument strikes me as bunk. Money is fake. Just conjure some up. If it’s important, and I would think climate change should be considered important, just deficit spend.
Olivier
@Ian “It [Europe] has to have its own arms industry.” Several European countries still have a very decent arms industry. There is almost nothing an army might require that cannot be produced here (hypersonic missiles maybe).
Olivier
Also, Merz has been very public about his intent to restart the remaining nuclear reactors. We’ll see.
marku52
Something like 60% of EU weapons come from the US. So any increase in mil spending will be “leaky”, as the economists like to say. And to do it in Germany, you need Russian energy. And getting rid of that, wasn’t that Merz’s whole point?
And you want to detach from the US? Going to evict all those US mil bases? I guess you could try. If you succeeded, there would be another large loss of spending into the adjacent communities.
I’m not seeing this project as remotely possible.
joey_n
Mark Level,
Sorry to answer this late, but what I intended to say is, whatever reason you may have to change your last name (and I won’t even try to stop you on that – it’s all up to you), many of the elites that run Germany are products of US/CIA/Zionist occupation of (West) Germany starting from the end of WWII, so I find it hard to call the current regime ‘German’, at least not when Germany’s gold reserves remain on US soil.