So, Trump sent a bunch of demands to Harvard, which basically amounted to “we run this university now.” In the wake of his demand that Columbia submit to a consent decree, Harvard decided to fight and is trying to rally other universities.
This isn’t about free speech or any civil liberties values. Harvard was happily crushing Palestinian protestors. The issue is power: Trump wants to take power away from the people who run it now, and they aren’t willing to give it up.
This comes back to the simplest problem in negotiating with Trump: you can’t actually cut a deal, because he’ll always come back for more. American elites are beginning to realize that they can’t conditionally surrender: they can’t give Trump some stuff and expect to be otherwise left alone.
I think the odds of significant elite opposition are high. They don’t want to, but Trump has backed them into a corner. It’s fight or exit the elites.
This is going to be a nasty fight. Trump’s weaponization of the immigration system and presidential orders, especially dubious presidential control over spending means he has powerful weapons, including the threat of deporting citizens to prison camps for life.
But Trump has moved into “beyond a fuck-up” territory. He’s moved too fast and made too many enemies too fast, both domestically and internationally. He’s turned allies against him, and made everyone scared.
That’s not smart. The rule of purges is to do them fast, yes, but that once you’re done, you’re done. And when you make deals you need to keep them. No one feels safe, but they haven’t given up their power yet.
Worse, Trump is almost certain to lose Congress in the mid-terms. I’ve never seen a President more likely to be impeached, because he has made it “me or you”. Non-Trump aligned elites will go for his throat as soon as they can, and he’s turning a lot of elites who were pro-Trump against him with his “trade” policies.
American elites wanted to give in to Trump, but he’s forced them into a corner, and like the rats they are, they will fight when threatened with loss of their own power.
So buckle in and buckle up, sunshine. It ain’t over till it’s over, and it’s far from over yet.
Barney
Hope you’re right. You’re assuming that anything resembling democracy and rule of law will still exist by the mid-terms. For that to happen, the corporations, the univiersities, the courts will all have to turn against him at once, within the next few days.
Crooked Timber:
https://crookedtimber.org/2025/04/17/the-point-of-no-returnonly-days-left-to-stop-a-totalitarian-state-in-the-us/
Feral Finster
Because elites in the US and its catamites are reflexively for anything Cheeto Dipshit is perceived as being against, expect Moar War On Russia to be a hallmark of this resistance.
Of course, Trump will escalate that war, regardless, because Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
NR
To be fair to Harvard, Ian, one of the things they’re fighting Trump on is his demand that they expand the definition of ‘antisemitism’ to include anyone protesting Israel’s ongoing atrocities in Gaza.
Not saying Harvard has been great on this issue–they haven’t–but that seems like a point worth mentioning.
GrimJim
Trump and the MAGAts wield power like a club; they only understand Hard Power, and have no concept of Soft Power.
Thus, if Trump is acting this strong this fast, there are two basic possibilities:
One, he thinks he has purged Civilian Enforcement (DHS, FBI, CIA, etc.) and the Military and has both under his absolute control, but is WRONG; or two, he is RIGHT, and both forces with do whatever he tells them, regardless of legality, Constitutionality, ethics, morals, or humanity.
If he is WRONG, he can be stopped. The only way he can be stopped now, though, is if there are enough Congresscritters after the midterms to impeach him beyond any doubt. And even then, he will try to simply overthrow their decision using his forces, with MAGAt Militia auxiliaries, which is when he finds out that he does not have them as well in hand as he thought, and it ends in civil war, with the country going to the strongest faction (or just splitting the country into warlord states).
If he is RIGHT, well then, it is all over.
This weekend may well be telling, depending on how strong he really feels he is.
If he is not yet quite sure of his power on the home front, he will simply at this point “reinforce the borders” as he continues to build his power.
If he truly feels strong enough that he believes no one can deny him, when he invokes the Insurrection Act, he will not only “reinforce the borders,” he will also send forces to crush the most prominent protests and arrest thousands, the first “home-growns” who will be disappeared into foreign concentration camps.
And as there is no outside force strong enough to resist him if that is true, then that is the end game.
All other things equal, 50/50 chance the American Experiment dies this weekend.
Mark Pontin
Ian: ‘I’ve never seen a President more likely to be impeached’
I’ve never seen a President more likely to be executed.
Also, California — by far the wealthiest US state — is suing Trump. Granted, it’s Gavin Newsom establishing himself for 2028. But California is likely to be heftier resistance than Harvard –
‘Gavin Newsom says California to sue over Trump tariffs’
https://www.ft.com/content/6482ed5e-8d9a-4a76-b62e-d9fa908458dc
https://archive.ph/OnpVc
responseTwo
“more likely to be impeached” – he committed sedition and wasn’t impeached. Democrats sat on their hands after he almost took over congress. i don’t think he will be impeached.
GrimJim
Well, it looks like they’ve got their test case for deporting children of immigrants born in the US (“anchor babies”). Chipping away at the 14th Amendment bit by bit…
Odds are they are going to send this kid to El Salvador and challenge anyone to try to stop them.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna201800
Failed Scholar
You’re telling us Orange Cheeto is gonna deport our “”””””elites”””””” to Ecuadorian gulags? As the saying goes, don’t threaten us with a good time.
mago
Not sure what’s going on this weekend beyond some dudes dribbling in their shorts in a high stakes game called basketball, but whatever it is I won’t be a spectator either way.
As for concentration camps there are some ready to go in the California desert. Just need a few buses rather than airplanes, plus it’s a domestic employment opportunity. No reason the Salvadoreños should get all the money and fun.
Although this has zip to do with Harvard elites versus The Trumpian faction, at least as far as I can tell.
I did read some demand and response from both sides and thought, let the lawyers argue.
As Ian noted, the Clash of the Titans is underway. A sad and sorry spectacle.
You can run, but you can’t hide. Thus have I heard.
bruce wilder
My perception is that Trump and his core Administration are consumed with some kind of major reactionary panic. I presume they anticipate the bottom falling out of the market for U.S. Treasuries or something like that, and see implications for the soap bubble of billionaire “wealth” that has blown up with quantitative easing and COVID and so on now running head-on into China dominating economically.
The image that I am getting from a practically surreal display of reactionary panic is not intra-elite contention — it is more and more elite figures hearing that giant sucking sound beneath their feet and fearing the loss of power generally.
It is an elite reactionary pre-emptive counter-revolution aimed, I presume, at cramming the consequences down on the non-elite. Maybe that includes screwing a bunch of people who have been along for the ride and think they are part of the ownership class and governing elite, but in the opinion of Trump’s faction, are not or do not need to be. The lifeboat may be luxurious, but it is too small for everyone who expected a place.
Tallifer
One of the questions is whether Trump’s MAGA brownshirts and rogue policemen including his federal agents can terrorize the elites back into submission.
Mark Pontin
@ Bruce —
Yours is a succinct and correct articulation of the situation, in my view.
Bessent, Miran, and company are effectively front-running the inevitable collapse of US preeminence and dollar ‘exorbitant privilege’ by triggering that collapse early.
I’ve even seen some of them describing it as a ‘controlled demolition’ in order to ‘rebuild the greatest era of US power ever.’ This to be implemented by everything being privatized that can be privatized.
It will be ‘shock therapy’ very much akin to what US elites implemented in the areas of the former USSR during the 1990s, in short.
Mark Level
I think bruce wilder gives the best call– yes, Trump has united a majority of the world BEYOND what already existed against the US, including now our “allies”/ flunkies in EUrope. Since that bullshit attack is seen to be failing, he pivots to attacking the most vulnerable in the US to prove he is “strong”, “a winner,” etc.
The new FBI head, Cash Patel, wrote a “children’s book” about the God-Emperor Trump back in his first term. An actually germane book in that genre would be titled something like “The resentful little boy who ate the World.” It would feature a child who was insanely insecure and to gain agency began eating family pets, first the goldfish, then the cat, the dog, eventually his parents, then starting eating the walls and furnishings . . .
Those 4 years he was out of power (mostly) really damaged his fragile little psyche. His parasympathetic nervous system, which triggers “fight or flight” responses is heavily engaged so he lashes out. Only ritual humiliation of others (sometimes justified, e.g. Cocaine Clown Zelensky) is truly satisfying to him. But by seeing and attacking enemies everywhere, he only creates more.
The likes of Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh ruled 9-0 against him!! What a surprise, they decided not to have their locus of power made impotent. Jeffrey St. Clair mentioned recently that Sebastian Gorka is T’s “Counter-Terrorism Czar”! I was wondering where that fat, suppurating turd was hiding, had seen him covered online only once after Trump shellacked Kamala, when he was raving about how he was going to take down “Putin,” and give him the Prep School What For. Per St. Clair, “Gorka, told Newsmax this week that political opponents of Trump’s mass deportations could be charged with “abetting terrorism. It’s really quite that simple. We have people who love America, like the president, like his cabinet, like the directors of his agencies, who want to protect Americans. And then there is the other side, that is on the side of the cartel members, on the side of the illegal aliens, on the side of the terrorists… And you have to ask yourself, are they technically aiding and abetting them? Because aiding and abetting criminals and terrorists is a crime in federal statute.”
Actual Resistance = Thought Crime = Lock them up and throw away the key!! or Kill them All, I suppose. This is ideological McCarthyism weaponized beyond George Orwell’s most paranoid fears. Trump is finally BIG enough to fill his old mentor Ray Cohn’s shoes.
For once I disagree with Grim Jim. 2 days ago a friend who spends time on Blue Sky (the ShitLib site, she is legitimately in a “threatened group” so I get it) told me April 19 will be the day Martial Law is declared and everybody rounded up. I honestly don’t see how they could pull this off very quickly. Yes, there are plenty of fascists in the giant NatSec Permanent War agencies who will “follow orders” without question– let’s recall John Yoo’s elegant words about how the President has the power to order his subordinates to crush the genitals of children whose parents are “suspected” terrorists in order to gain needed “Intell.”
But I think that Trump has torn the mask off too quickly and too fully, and we all can see that he is Leatherface, his staff, the Hegseths etc. are all little Eichmanns, or Little Chainsaws ready to tear apart anyone who is not a Cult Member.
A couple of days ago, Marjorie Taylor Green prepared for a constituent Town Hall in Georgia with Tazer-armed cops (who used it repeatedly on one man) and Conserva-splained that no dissenting voices are allowed in her venue, that of the Patriots. Anyone who worried that their Social Security would be voided by Musk was “brainwashed” by the Fake News. Most (but not all) of the audience cheered with glee when those raising concerns were violently removed.
As to Mark Pontin’s note, “I’ve never seen a President more likely to be executed.”– This insight is shared by ex-CIA and now anti-Deep State Larry Johnson, who has repeatedly said he suspects Trump “doesn’t have long to live” during YouTube discussions. I don’t know the true source of his claim, beyond the obvious– the Biden SS let assassins get close to him twice, the first time resulting in a death and his own on-camera martyrdom/ wounding. (Also I tried out a different barber in my neighborhood recently, as he was wrapping up he raised, not in any way prompted by me, his hopes that someone would take out Trump.)
I think in his desperate moments of fear and insecurity when he can’t swallow some perceived obstruction, Trump can only lash out with more demands for Universal Compliance, like a sweaty Captain Queeg. Who stole my goddamn strawberries?
Now I of course don’t want to invest any energy in hoping the Libs or the Dimmies will ramp up a real “Resistance”, but nonetheless– Senator Van Hollen has been somewhat effective in confirming Abrego Garcia is still alive and pushing for his release in El Salvador. When CHUDs who own farms or travel agencies realize their livelihood is gone and they have no future, I don’t see how their hatred for Immigrants or Latinos means they will continue to support Trump, & just quietly consign themselves to homelessness soon– I guess the Trump crew think that seeing others being punished will mitigate their suffering.
I see more masochism among the Vote Blue No Matter Who clowns (well, sure, Joe didn’t try to raise the Minimum Wage, but you know the Constitution says the Parliamentarian is the only one capable of making such a decision) than I do among the CHUDs.
This country (notice I don’t say “we”) looks likely to soon face an economic contraction that will make Black Friday look mild, thanks to Donny’s Mouth writing checks he can’t cash with the rest of the world’s nations. If the result is the destruction of their families, properties, and future, I don’t see the majority of his followers continuing to worship Donnie’s throne. But to be fair, being deeply inoculated against most Tribalist Group Think or Lemming Identification, I may not be the best person to judge this issue.
Feral Finster
@GrimJim: “All other things equal, 50/50 chance the American Experiment dies this weekend.”
With all due respect, The American Experiment(tm) has been dead for a long time, now. The only quesiton is how long they will keep up the charade.
mago
Duh. The Insurrection Act and the great White House Easter Egg Hunt. 30,000 real eggs, kids. Who’s going to hide them? Who’s going to find them?
What’s the name of that 80’s song? It’s the end of the world as we know it?
I don’t feel so fine.
Mark Pontin
Me: ‘‘shock therapy’ very much akin to what US elites implemented’ (in the erstwhile USSR0.
Or, for another comparison, to a Mafia-style bust-out. Here’s where the US is now: –
As of April 3rd, 2025, US gross national debt is $36.22 trillion. Of this, $28.96 trillion is debt held by the public, while $7.26 trillion is intergovernmental debt.
As of March 2025, the average interest rate on the total marketable national debt is 3.347% . This is a notable increase from 3.277% one year ago and 2.213% five years ago. The net interest as a share of federal outlays is forecast to be 13.55% in FY2025, then 13.85% in FY2026.
Significantly, $9.2 trillion of U.S. debt will mature in 2025, which accounts for 25.4% of the total national debt. Much of this debt was borrowed at significantly lower interest rates, so rolling it over at current yields will be more expensive. In terms of impacts on government spending, the added cost of rising interest rates are projected at $870 billion for FY2025m if I understand the figures correctly.
The rollover of **$9.2 trillion** in U.S. debt in 2025 will mean:
[1] Higher Borrowing Costs: As old debt issued at lower rates matures and gets replaced at current yields (3.3%+), overall interest payments on U.S. debt will rise, putting further strain on government finances.
[2] Bond Market Pressure: Increased issuance of Treasuries would push yields even higher, depending on investor demand and Federal Reserve policies.
[3] Stock Market Volatility: If bond yields rise sharply, stocks—especially the big tech firms—could experience higher volatility, as borrowing becomes more expensive.
Mark Pontin
And seen in FT comments: –
“It is passed on! This USD is no more! It has ceased to be! It’s expired and gone to meet its maker! It is stiff! Bereft of life, it rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed it to the market it’d be pushing up daisies! Its trading processes are now ‘history! ‘It is off the chart! It has kicked the bucket, it’s shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-USD”
Well, not quite yet. But we’ve entered the stage of ‘Things that can’t go on forever, won’t’ where we experience — sorry, Ian! — weeks when decades happen.
someofparts
According to NCap and Breaking Points this morning, April 20 will be the day that Snot Face declares martial law.
Now I’m going to go enjoy the beautiful weather and pretend I’m living in a civilized country.
different clue
I have read a theory that if there is a major ” Civil War” between sections of elites within the Upperclass and the Overclass, that the Lowerclass majority can sometimes make a break and a play for improvements to itself. But only if it is prepared to do so and already thinks in such terms.
The DemParty wants us to wait till the Midterms so we call elect “mo’ betta’ Democrats” and “Flip the House.” At the speed Trump and the Triple Nazi Revolutionaries are moving, the Mid Terms won’t matter. If I am correct about that, they will certainly be permitted to go ahead as a ceremonial excercise to divert the believers with the fantasy that the Constitutional Republic still sort of exists and still can be sort of saved, sort of. Whoever the victors are in this ” War In Heaven” will know they have won by then, and may even permit Trump to be impeached, convicted, and removed as a diversionary sacrifice to entertain the masses with the illusory thrill of “power”.
A REAL expression of power would be the toppling of the Trump Regime within the next few months, while there is still some semblance of functioning governmental governance left to save a stub of, and to rebuild and regrow back from. The Triple Nazi Revolutionaries understand that, which is why they have been moving fast enough to achieve their ” Make America Ungovernable” goal before the 2026 elections.
As a mere layman and so-called “citizen”, I have thoughts on how the Great Lay Masses can do some things which might result in the successful toppling of Trump at least, which would then allow us to move on to toppling other elements and force-centers of the Trump regime. I will keep biting my fingers a little longer to see what other ideas other mere layfolk can offer. Then I will start offering my mere “citizen’s”
laymanly thoughts.
I would say this; I view the Triple Nazi grouping behind Trump as being the Revolutionaries their own selves. They are making the Revolution as we watch.
I have called myself a New Deal Reactionary in the past. I will go on to call myself a Counterrevolutionary at least in thought and spirit. I would like a successful counter-revolution against the entire Conservative Revolution we have suffered, starting with the Reagan Revolution itself which I would like to see torn up by the roots and burned at the stake with fire.
” The Reagan Revolution is over. The Counter-Reagan Counter-Revolution has begun. There is no Brezhnev Doctrine for Conservativism. America has Stood UP! ((How do you say that in Mandarin?)
We should explore the joys of being Counter Revolutionary. ” Who’s the contra now, eh?”
Finally finally finally . . . . . The various judges ruliing against various Trumpists on various things know they don’t have a Judicial Police Force of their very own. They just want to make Trump’s willful mocking contempt for the Constitution, for Law, and for his Oath of Office to become made so very plain by Trump himself that the remaining remnants of the Constitutional Republic government structures are forced into the corner of either deleting President Trump or admitting in public that they have no power here anymore and are not the government anymore. And that admission would move America into a fluid fast-moving pre-Counter-Revolutionary situation.
Ian Welsh
Yes, there are a lot of people who want you to believe that you can’t oppose regressive economics without also being an authoritarian racist transphobic misogynistic asshole because apparently those are traditional values, or something.
In fact, of course, there is an entire genre of articles by me written about culture, though admittedly mostly years ago.
I’ll summarize the values thrust, however. “Be Kind!’
What the right wants from its followers is for them to be riven by hatred of any difference, thus making them easy to manipulate and willing to sell out their economic values in exchange for seeing brown people beaten and women denigrated.
What neoliberals want is for their followers to be convinced that each group, even each micro group, is one its own, unable to understand each other and that solidarity is impossible and all one can hope for is that some member of the identity group is allowed to join the elite, while most of all groups remain poverty.
They’re very similar, really. In both cases hatred of other groups is inculcated as the core value, as a way of making manipulation easy and avoding having to actually deal with economic issues.
different clue
Here is an interesting and potentially very hopeful little post from the “anticonsumption” subreddit. It is about the early appearance of a building total-falloff in shipable goods needing to be trucked. The post itself is interesting as a view of what may be coming. The comment section contains some comments noting that the core of Trump’s maganazi base will never ever abandon Trump because of this. They will always and only discuss how Biden time-delay caused this from beyond the political grave.
But the tradwealthy masters may well quietly behind closed doors face up to who and what is causing this and may start deciding that Trump needs to be thrown under the Impeachment bus well before 2026. What can humble US citizens against Trump do, and what can millions of foreign friends and neighbors do, to make this even worse and deeper than it shows hopeful promise of becoming? Deep enough to definitively torture the tradrich into getting Trump deleted?
Anyway, here is the link.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Anticonsumption/comments/1k1wj7z/lets_hope_this_is_all_true/
different clue
And on the semi-other hand, here is a post from the skeptic subreddit titled: ” Trump Voters Are Starting to Have Regrets. Here’s How to Make the Most of It.” It is a fairly long and carefully written post about how to help people beginning to express voter’s remorse about having voted for Trump to begin to step away from the Trump. He got so many hostile comments that he had to add a preface and an addendum to the effect that of course he is not referring to “working with” the Hardcore Maganazi Trump-cult voter. He is talking about the soft-fringe Trump voter who voted for Trump in order to lower the price of eggs.
Here is the link.
https://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/1k26mfl/trump_voters_are_starting_to_have_regrets_heres/
So for me, the immediate shortest-term focus should be on how I and people like me can help Trump make things so bad in such a way that the tradrich feel tortured into deleting Trump within months. But after that, someone-at-least should be thinking about how to work with the soft non-maganazi fringe of Trump’s support to help them get to somewhere different.
mago
Oh geez. Yes someofparts, hope you had a chance to pause and smell the flowers.
Despite the doom and gloom it is indeed spring and resurrection time when the rabbits breed, like you know, rabbits.
Daffodils and tulips bloom yellow and purple.
Time to get it on if you are able.
And yes, Be Kind. It’s our antidote.