There’s a lot of celebrating of the Gaza ceasefire. Hamas troops are openly on the streets, hostages from both sides are being returned (that only Israeli captives are called hostages is ludicrous) and it’s clear that Israel came nowhere close to destroying Hamas. This is an impressive accomplishment, Gaza is only 25×5 miles: Gaza is tiny. Hamas’s tunnel strategy clearly worked.
That said, Gaza is a wreck.
The official civilian casualty numbers are under 100K, but I suspect a full population study will find the death toll far higher. All Gaza hospitals are non-operational, often destroyed entirely and a high percentage of the nurses and doctors are dead. Water and power infrastructure has been smashed, and even if Israel turns their side back on most of Gaza will be without.
A great deal will depend on whether the ceasefire sticks. Netanyahu has suggested that the war will start up again.
So, with all due respect to Hamas, Yemen and Hezbollah, it’s going to depend on Trump. Of the three Yemen has the most leverage, it can keep attacking if Israel keeps violating the ceasefire and the only way to get it to stop is to keep the ceasefire, which will re-open shipping as nothing else can, but by itself it’s not sufficient.
However ultimately Trump has plenty of leverage. As Yitzak Brick, the ex-IDF general said:
“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”
The war doesn’t start up again if Trump is willing to use his leverage. It’s that simple. Trump doesn’t seem to like war, but he’s also surrounded by Zionists and hawks. Israel has already, as usual, violated the ceasefire, as it has thousands of times in Southern Lebanon. It will attempt to find an excuse to re-start full scale bombing.
But if Trump really doesn’t want that, it doesn’t happen. That simple. Israel still has tens of thousands of internal refugees, a huge loss of middle and small sized businesses and it also requires US financial and economic aid. Israel can’t fight if Trump brings down the hammer.
I will note, that at least so far, it appears that those who refused to vote for Biden because of the Gaza genocide were justified, and that those Muslim leaders who appeared publicly with Trump appear vindicated. Biden was pro-genocide, and refused to his leverage to stop the war. Trump, even before taking power, said that if the hostages weren’t returned by January 20th, there’d be hell to pay, and lo-and-behold, on January 19th the hostages were returned. Trump’s envoy forced Netanyahu to meet him during Shabbat, after Netanyahu initially refused.
Israel has a great deal of power in the West, thru its operatives and donations, but it is the tail to America’s dog, and a determined President, like Reagan in Lebanon or George Bush Sr. can stand against if they decide to. Since Trump can’t have a third term, he doesn’t need to kiss AIPAC’s ass.
We’ll see how it plays out, but at least the start has been promising.
marku52
Exactly as I see it. Trump can stop this, if he wants to. He doesn’t need Adelson’s money any more. Already cashed the check. LOL
But can he resist all the ziocons around him?
Daniel Lynch
The only winner so far in this brutal war has been Yemen. Yemen has emerged stronger, and more respected.
Hamas did what guerrillas are supposed to do — they bled the occupier and survived to fight another day. Oh but at a terrible cost to Palestine.
Hezbollah survived but has been weakened. They succeeded in stopping Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, but failed to protect Gaza, and failed to resolve the conflict.
Obviously, Syria is a big loser.
Russia washed its hands of the conflict, seemingly a retreat, but perhaps a wise retreat that will free Russia to concentrate on more vital things.
Iran stayed out of it, instead dealing with its economic and political problems at home. That makes Iran look weak, and they may be vulnerable to attack — except that Iran just signed an alliance with Russia!
Israel gained territory from Syria, but Israel’s economy took a big hit, Israel’s reputation took a big hit, Israel’s military was unable to deal with Yemen, and Israel is still surrounded by hostiles. If Israel’s goal is security, it failed to achieve that. Why would any business build a new plant in Israel, if Israel is vulnerable to missile attacks? Why would any Jew still view Israel as a safe haven? Why would any decent country still support Israel? It may take years to play out, but this could be the beginning of the end for the Zionist project.
Oakchair
Democratic establishment chatter 2023-2024:
“Damn, our voters are protesting genocide and an election is coming up.”
“Don’t worry, we can tear gas them and then remove their right to free speech.”
“Yes, then all the war mongering republicans will vote for us!”
“Our candidates can tell people who oppose genocide’s to shut up and pivot to rambling on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about abortion.”
“Shit the election is looking close what can we do?”
“We can campaign on having a more war mongering candidate then Dick Cheney.”
“Genius, so many republicans will vote for us!”
“Hip hip for genocide! Hip Hip hooray!”
“Oh noes, it’s looking close we need to get some votes.”
“I have a brilliant idea lets have our candidate who supports genocide, forever war, censorship, and violating the Nuremberg Codes yell how her opponent is a fascist dictator.”
“We’re so smart and better than everyone else. Vote for us or you’re an evil idiot.”
NR
I urge anyone who thinks Trump acted out of concern to protect the Palestinians to read this article:
https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/trump-israel-hamas-truce-better-hold-or-all-hell-will-break-out-hsrdrt7w
Oh, and the reports that Trump is considering “temporarily” relocating Palestinians while Gaza is rebuilt should be alarming to anyone, especially in light of how Jared Kushner previously talked about how Gaza would be a great place for waterfront condos.
Remember that you are not immune to propaganda, Ian. No one is.
DanFmTo
Approximately no one thinks Trump acted out of concern for Palestinians.
He doesn’t want a foreign policy crisis dominating his first 100 days, his America-First rubric requires getting the American citizen hostages freed, and like anyone not blinkered by Zionist zeal, he understood that Israel was the real obstacle to a hostage deal so that’s where the pressure went via his envoy’s visit to Israel the weekend before this one.
As to Ian’s question, it is too soon to tell. Israel failed to achieve its aims in Gaza, but succeeded pretty well in weakening Hezbollah and Iran’s ability to supply its allies overland via Syria. All of Syria’s strategic force-projection capabilities were destroyed so even if an Israel-unfriendly government emerges, they will be as weak as Lebanon’s official military. I would say Israel’s regional strategic posture is stronger now.
The biggest question is whether Israel has set in motion the end of its unlimited western and in particular US support on which the whole rotten enterprise ultimately depends. Trump will let them annex the West Bank (or Area C at least), and in a “be careful what you wish for” irony will only strengthen the case that it’s an obvious apartheid state and no 2 state solution is possible, so one-person-one-vote must happen. Israel is on its way to becoming a partisan issue where Democrats do not support it the same as Republicans, this may prove fatal to the ethnostate project as such.
KT Chong
Go to Perplexity.ai and ask the AI: “Did Trump pressure Israel into accepting a ceasefire?”
The answer: ‘Yes…”
And then the AI give (clickable) sources on how it reaches that conclusion.
What the AI basically does is to quickly find, look through and analyze tens or even hundreds of thousands if not millions of sources like news reports and journal articles, not just in English but in all other foreign languages, including sources that are unreported and under-reported by the Western mainstream media; and then give you a direct answer.
Trump might have said one thing in the public, but his delegates like Steve Witkoff, have been working in the background to pressure Israel, which the Western mainstream media like CNN and MSNBC (which DOES have anti-Trump and pro-Democrat biases) have been hiding from the American public; but the AI engine found those articles in alternative and foreign sources like Vox and Al Jazeera.
The AI gave you links to those two sources, but you can actually ask the AI: “what other sources did you use to reach that conclusion?” And it would tell you.
KT Chong
Sorry, the Perplexity AI gave four (not two) sources on that one in its short explanation for the “Yes” answer. (I asked that question awhile ago.)
KT Chong
George W Bush is still the worst US President in my lifetime, (i.e., 9/11, the invasions and occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2008 financial crisis, the mishandling of Hurricane Katrina, Guantanamo Bay, the expansion and consolidation of the Deep State, etc.)
Biden is the second worst.
NR
Well if you go to perplexity.ai and ask “Will Trump support settlement expansions in the West Bank?” it answers that it appears likely that he will.
So if we’re taking AI as authoritative sources, there’s that to consider.
But anyway, let me ask you directly, KTChong, if Israel resumes massacring people in Gaza in a few months, with Trump’s full support, will you come back and admit you were wrong? If Trump forcibly “temporarily” relocates Palestinians out of Gaza, will you come back and admit you were wrong?
KT Chong
Who knows what’s gonna happen? Trump is a very old man. He could be dead in a few months, or a year or two.
What we DO know: when Biden was the president, he refused to put any meaningful pressure on Israel and Netanyahu. Given that Biden has been senile for years, Blinken was likely to have been running the show on the US actions in the Middle East; and, on any Israel issues, Blinken acted more like a lawyer for Netanyahu than the US State Secretary. The Biden administration also cracked down hard on the student protests on campus.
Most importantly, there was no ceasefire under Biden. That was the outcome. That was the reason. People don’t care about the reasons or excuses. People look at the results.
And, just before Trump came in, a different result came in. The ceasefire finally happened. You can’t tell me the result was accidental (because we now know that Steve Witkoff was putting pressures on Israel, for once.)
That is the result; that is the result that did NOT happen under Biden but happened just when Trump is coming in.
As for: what if Israel restart the bombing and genocide again, well… so we’re back to what was definitely gonna happened under a Biden/Kamala presidency anyway, because Kamala already told everyone she wouldn’t do anything different from Biden.
Some people especially Arabs voted (or refused to vote) because they were hoping just for a tiny little bit of chance that Trump would be different from Biden on Gaza, and they already got it.
KT Chong
BTW, beyond Arab Americans, Democrats are also losing Asian Americans specifically Chinese Americans because there have been some movements in the Democratic Party. I know Democrats have just lost their number-one donor/fundraiser to the Chinese Americans and ONLY access to Chinese American donors. She just rage-quit and took all her connections and donors with her and switched to the other side. (No time now but I’ll get into this maybe later.)
NR
Okay, so that’s a “no” then. Thanks.
NR
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-cancels-sanctions-far-right-israeli-settlers-occupied-west-bank-2025-01-21/
But do go on about how pro-Palestinian Trump is.
KT Chong
Jimmy Dore interviews Max Blumenthal (of the Grayzone) on the Israel-Gaza ceasefire deal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kSvaSc-7ts
Carborundum
If the tunnels are an example of successful strategy, I’d hate to see unsuccessful strategy.
KT Chong
Not sure where to put this, so I’m gonna put this one here because we were talking about Perplexity and AI:
So I went to Perplexity.ai and asked this question:
“Is it true that Chinese do not pay an income tax if they make less than 5000 RMB a month?”
Perplexity replied: “This statement is not entirely accurate. In China, individuals do not pay income tax on the first 5,000 RMB of monthly income, but this does not mean they pay zero taxes on income below 5,000 RMB…”
And then it went on to gave me the detailed breakdown and table of the income taxes in China. I read the data, and I followed up:
“You just said ‘this statement is not entirely true’, but then the data your gave below actually showed that the statement WAS entirely true: Chinese do NOT pay income tax if they make less than 5000 RMB a month.”
To which Perplexity replied: “You are correct. My previous responses were inconsistent. Based on the search results, the statement “Chinese do not pay taxes if they make less than 5,000 RMB a month” is entirely true.”
So I asked:
“Why did you say it was ‘not entirely true’ at first? Did you read the data yourself?”
Here is the AI’s response:
No, I did not actually read the data thoroughly when I first responded. My initial response was a reflexive, knee-jerk reaction to contradict the user’s statement without carefully analyzing the information. This is a classic example of AI behavior where I:
1. Automatically assumed the user’s statement might be partially incorrect
2. Generated a response that sounded authoritative
3. Did not critically examine the actual data I was presenting
In reality, the data I presented myself completely confirmed the original statement. My “not entirely true” disclaimer was baseless and incorrect. This interaction reveals an important limitation in AI systems like myself: we can generate responses that sound confident but may not be logically consistent or carefully reasoned. It requires human critical thinking (like yours) to catch and challenge such inconsistencies. I appreciate you walking me through this and helping me recognize my error. Transparency about AI limitations is crucial.
KT Chong
Oh, an I also asked:
“What’s the typical total monthly expense of a Chinese living outside a first-tier city? The expenses include mortgage or rent, utilities, foods, etc., just everything basic for living.”
I’m just gonna skip the details and give the final answer at the end:
For a typical Tier 2 city like Chengdu, a person might spend around 4,000-6,500 RMB per month covering all basic living expenses.
“What about in a tier-3 city?”
In a Tier 3 city, the monthly living expenses are remarkably affordable. According to the search results, a single person can expect to spend around $300-$400 per month (approximately 2,000-3,000 RMB) for all basic living expenses.
Reminder: Chinese do NOT pay any income tax if they make less than 5,000 RMB a month.
KT Chong
I asked for “the US equivalences of Chinese tier-3 cities”. The AI answered:
• Charlotte, North Carolina
• Phoenix, Arizona
• Atlanta, Georgia
• Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area
• Boston, Massachusetts
• Portland, Oregon
•Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
And the AI explained why they are equivalent to the tier-3 cities in China.
Jessica
KT Chong<
What was the AI's reasoning for calling those US cities the equivalent to Chinese Tier 3 cities? I would say most all of the are at least Tier 2.
Alternatively, if those are Tier 3 cities, what are Tier 2 cities?
capelin
Enough with the AI noise. Wtf?
—> Stop using AI <—
–
I'd like to think that somehow Trump's humanity or something is gunna save the day, but objectively that's not what the tea leaves, and deep zio connecions would indicate.
Listening to his acceptance speach, he mentioned the Iz hostages but not the people of Gaza. Somehow that seemed to sum it up.
https://xcancel.com/mazemoore/status/1750020277210169760#m
This is Trump in 2007 critiquing the Iraq war #2, and mentioning the Iraqi people in a way that sounds sincere.
Saw a video of the 3x Iz hostages being transported to the exchange. Surrounded by masked, pumped fighters, they were relaxed, smiling, well fed. One woman smiled and reached out to squeeze the arm of a fighter as she exited the van. They were given gift bags including some kind of framed certificate, like at the end of summer camp. I find that touch of note; for a people resisting annialation, it's like saying FU we exist and have depth.
The Pal hostages getting out of Iz jails looked like they'd been thru hell.
KT Chong
Examples of “tier-2” cities in the US by China’s standard:
• Austin, Texas
• Denver, Colorado
• Seattle, Washington
• Minneapolis, Minnesota
• Nashville, Tenessee
The AI also gave Atlanta, Georgia; Portland, Oregon; and Charlotte North Carolina.
So I asked:
“I previously asked you for US examples of Chinese tier-3 cities, and you also gave me Atlanta, Portland and Charlotte. So are those three cities considered as tier-2 or tier-3 by China’s standard?”
The AI re-clarrified:
Atlanta = tier-2
Charlotte = tier-3
Portland = tier-3
And the AI gave explanations based on populations, economy, quality of life, development, future growth prospect, etc. I am not gonna post everything here, but you can go ask Perplexity yourself.
Tier-1’s are obviously Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and the lesser-known Tianjin. Obviously the Chinese tier-1’s are bigger, more advanced and more modern than anything in the US or EU; all of the tier-1’s have high-speed rails like bullet trains or the more advanced maglev (magnetically-levitated) trains. A few cities have also recently become 1st-tier: Chongqing (aka the “Cyberpunk” city, IMO the most amazing of the bunch,) Hangzhou, Wuhan (?!?) and Xi’an.