How Covid Will Play Out in America

A dark prediction, but it is conceivable. Agree that if a 2nd wave happens, it will be deliberate. The first wave may be attributed to incompetence, but by now the elites understand what the virus is capable of and what is required to control it. They see that cases are on the rise in some states yet are fine with re-opening, so this is a deliberate choice.

We live in interesting times. This is like having a front row seat at Gettysburg.

“They see that cases are on the rise in some states yet are fine with re-opening, so this is a deliberate choice.”

Given demographic trends, that would mean an official policy of genocide.

Bending the curve is about hospital bed supply management. It is a tactic they balances hospital bed count against the duration of the Plague.

The same is true for testing and tracing.

It lengthens the infection period, and delays Herd Immunity, if Herd Immunity is possible.

Opening up by steps as the curve is flattening is prudent. If the infection rate spikes, close up again.

The objective is Herd Immunity, or a Vaccine. Anything else is a resource management tactic, not a cure, and not an endpoint.

If a vaccine is not possible, them the plague will continue, either quickly or more slowly.

If neither a Vaccine or Herd Immunity is not possible, then survival of the fittest is the remaining option.

I’m not inclined to believe any of the trialed cures, as there appears to be only anecdotal evidence on their efficacy.

Especially a cure based on a anti-malarial drug when my parent were the unhappy recipients of an anti malarial trial.

In addition many of the statistics on death are click-bait. The deaths per Country need normalizing as a percentage of population before comparison, because comparing the US, 300 Million population, with Italy or Spain, 60 or 70 million population each, with raw number is guaranteed to be meaningless.

The place to watch is Sweden – They are not managing bed count and not extending the duration of the plague.

The things is states may think they have little choice, state and local tax revenue is crashing, and there is no bailout on the horizon for state and local government. No more and maybe less than there is for ordinary people. Nor did they get help from the Feds with test and trace etc..

So almost all states are moving toward opening, red or blue. Now they may not all be EQUALLY reckless in what they choose to open, I say that tentatively since they seem to open stuff up as fast as they closed it and with as little warning, but not everyone is open to concerts for instance, which is of course is the height of insanity. But they are almost all moving toward opening. This is a federal system with a broken federal government. It can’t handle the pandemic. The federal government is useless and even federalism doesn’t help when there is no financial help for the states but only for Wall Street. State succession and a full attempt to go it alone might be different.

Right-wingers in America have fully embraced the philosophy of “I want to be able to do whatever I want and I don’t care if it literally kills other people.”

Well, if we do strike/riot in the right neighborhoods the old folks may not even know about it. Since retirement, I’ve noticed that half of my friends who are also old are just not concerned with being online at home. I can reach them on their phones but can’t send them any links they would need a laptop to view clearly.

That’s a problem because I found out on Mayday that a big strike that happened at Target in the heart of our town was not covered in the local press at all – not in the city paper and not on any of the legacy networks on television. I only knew about it because I found the twitter thread the organizers were using in real-time to coordinate activities. I got the link to it from another twitter account I follow which tracks strike actions nationwide.

Also, although I did not stay on the thread long enough to see it myself, I heard that twitter was pulling down posts to that site even as organizers were actively posting updates to it.

Whatever it will take to push back against our reptile overlords will require enough technical sophistication to use the media to our own ends and protect ourselves from having it used against us. I hope that is even possible.

“This is a worst case scenario, and many mocked the possibility even two months ago. Surely, the said, American elites couldn’t fuck this up that much?”

Gimme a break. Out most powerful leader on the left has spent a fortune cultivating her deer-in-headlights looks and leadership strategy. The so called worst case scenario has been my baseline prediction from the point it became clear China could not contain it. We’re heading for a couple million dead.

Also, herd immunity is about vaccination. The current nonstrategy is just about letting it burn, and burn hot. Meaningful action is not going to happen here in the US.

I resigned myself to the potential health or death consequences over 3 months ago. The part that terrifies me is the economic and political side. Full on disaster capitalism with zero resistance from populace or politicians. Our future is looking so dystopian, I won’t say it’s preferable death, so far, but it’ll be a close second. Death by covid19 does not scare me. Surviving with organ damage and or no pension or soc sec or job is the result I dread.

As for Sweden, I’m reserving judgement until this plays out. We’ve done the lock down, yet wasted it not using the time to prepare for test and trace. Just delayed the inevitable by 3 or 4 weeks. In for a penny, in for a pound. At least Sweden aren’t ruining their economy and handing it and the govt over to the monopolists like we are – although their economy was probably much more resilient to start with.

The US has been a house of cards waiting for a sneeze to knock it down for decades. This is the kind of stuff I expected when Bush stole the election. I’m sort of amazed we made it this long.

Normalized death counts don’t make sense. They imply that the government of Luxembourg would be worse than the government of China if both of them had an outbreak with the same number of dead people. That makes no sense, the virus doesn’t care if you have a small population or a big one.

fictional apocalyptic. the solution? owning one’s health is lots better than trusting it to others. it’s as important as free choice. educate oneself. experiment. the scientific method. whole foods (food is medicine.) intermittent fasting. for starters. (besides, many of us are left with no other choice, as affordable care ain’t affordable.)

Aristotle knew 23 centuries ago that we are social animals. In his sense, that meant we existed within a society. There is no individual that is separate from a society. So it is all about how we live and act within our society, or our ethics. Economic activities are something we do within a society. As such they are moral in nature. It is something completely backwards to think that we are here to serve the economy. The economy exists to serve us.We are not there to die for it.

I have been fascinated by the level of medieval, magical thinking in reaction to the pandemic, led of course by our idiot in chief. Medicine and science tell us do this, this, and this or a huge number of people are going to die. And a significant number of people look at that and say this reality is too hard, too inconvenient. So they are just going to ignore it and invoke their inalienable right to be selfish.

It is all very convenient to our narrative driven political polarization to imagine that “those” people over there are antiscience vice-signalling idiots, while all the right-thinking decent folks like “us” simply agree on exactly what is to be done.

We do not necessarily “know” enough — that is the real science here: acknowledged ignorance and determination to find out.

That the U.S., having botched early testing, has apparently abandoned any plans to ramp up the scale of population testing, ought to be appalling. And, in the absence of an all-out effort to identify, trace and isolate the infected, all we can do is a palsied enactment of rituals of social distance.

bruce: population density matters, but not absolute population, in case you were responding to me. It doesn’t make population-adjusted mortality make sense as a statistic to compare policy. Some form of population-desnsity adjustment make make sense, then you can compare whether different countries are competent enough to adjust to their own density conditions, I suppose.

One percent of 80% of the US population means we can expect to have two million die before a vaccine a developed. Trump should have zero change of wining reelection, but the Dems had to mess it up again by backing Uncle Joe for the Democratic nomination. He and even his surrogates have largely been MIA during this crisis except to come out and vilify Tara Reade. America is in deep trouble and there is no one in charge who can save us.

“the ‘Spanish Flu’ of 1918-19 killed something like 2.3 to 5 percent of the U.S. population”

There is so much hyperbole associated with the Spanish Flu that there is a tendency to jumble up the off-quoted statistics, which are less counts than educated guesses anyway. But, credible estimates say it killed roughly 1% of the total population in the U.S. With a guesstimated one-third of the population contracting the flu, that accounts for estimates of a fatality rate among the infected of 2.3% to 5%. I understand more than a quarter of fatalities may have been concentrated in the single month of October 1918, which intensified the national trauma. That would have been around 200,000 dead in less than six weeks in a population less than a third of what it is today.

Ian,
The average time from infection to symptoms is 5 days. 90+ percent are symptomatic by 11 days (if they ever will be). 14 days is the duration set for quarantines to be absolutely sure (margin of safety).
The average time from becoming symptomatic until becoming ill enough to go to a hospital is 5-7 days.
So a renewed wave would show up in homes in 5 days and in hospitals in about 10 days.

There are more and more studies showing much larger percentages of populations that have antibodies for Covid-19 than confirmed test numbers would suggest. _If_ those studies are correct, then the fatality rate for those who get the virus is equivalently lower, more in the 0.1% to 0.3% range. They also mean that the virus is equivalently more infectious.
If we do wind up in a scenario in which the virus pretty gets to have its way with the entire population, the death toll will be much lower than if the fatality rate were higher. Although 0.1% to 0.3% of the US population would be 330,000 to 990,000.

‘Merica: https://twitter.com/nick__puckett/status/1259541624389955584

Asia: https://mobile.twitter.com/gnuman1979/status/1258970816450084865

Jessica, how do you come up with .1%- .3% ? All I can go off of is the New York State antibody survey of some of the population and their reports of dead people. I would very much prefer your numbers to the amateur stats I came up with. Honest question. Hugh difference in .1 and .8%

Anyone else wondering why we don’t seem to have many results about how many already may have got this thing and possibly cleared it? We have quite a few dead people which is one necessary statistic to determine how deadly the thing is. But the part about how many have already gotten it is very much lacking. Worries me.

The knowledge was there. There needed to be a national, not by state, response. Early shutdown of international travel. This should have been done in early January, not late March. Aggressive testing and contact tracing for any symptomatic patient with any contact to China or anyone they were in contact with who had such contact. Early treatment of symptomatic patients and quarantine of their asymptomatic contacts.

Once the first free range case of Covid-19 showed up, there should have been a massive ramp up in testing. Anyone with suspicious symptoms should have been presumptively treated as Covid-19 unless and until this was ruled out. PPE should have been mandatory and provided to all healthcare workers. Covid only centers or split ERs should have been set up. Likely foci of the virus, any large congregation of people, especially those at risk should have been targeted early: nursing homes, prisons, meat packing plants, airplanes, cruise ships, amusement parks, sports events, etc. Social distancing and masks should have been universal.

We all know how the response was blown across the board. It was piecemeal and way too slow. There was no national leadership. Testing was completely botched. Treatment was unconscionably delayed. Resources and production weren’t made available or effectively allocated. Testing and contact tracing remain far below what is needed. Reopening is just as incoherent and not thought through as the initial response.

It’s not that people don’t know what to do, those in positions of responsibility and authority simply didn’t do it and aren’t doing it.

As for disease/death per 100,000 by country comparisons, these are valid. Luxemburg vs China is a ridiculous at the extreme case. The US vs Germany, the UK, France, Spain, or Italy isn’t. Nor would a US vs EU comparison. Under reporting and under counting are an issue, but often you have to go with the data you have, not the data you would like. That’s pretty standard in dynamic situations.

A tenth of a percent of all Americans, accounting for undocumented, is what, 3.5 million people?

Laurie Garrett’s warning of 3 yrs of rolling outbreaks seems to track with that.

Truly, we will be the virus’ enduring reservoir. Castra de virus.

Mark Pontin- yes that is a good site that I look at regularly. But it just doesn’t have data on how many people actually have had this virus possibly without symptoms. Supposedly about 25% of NYC residents have had it or presently do. Vast majority without major symptoms luckily. Based on some antibody survey that the State of New York announced. There have just been few of that kind of survey done or announced. Which is my problem.

‪In an email sent to workers Monday titled, ‘Furlough Has Ended And We Are Back To Work in Production!’ Any worker that refuses to return faces the prospect of being fired and cut off from accessing unemployment benefits.‬
‪https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/05/12/tesl-m12.html‬

If the consensus here is the U.S. is walking down the worst path with no foreseeable change to a more optimal path then perhaps it would be more productive to change this conversation to one of preparation and adaptation.

Frankly I am uninterested in more discussions on “here is how we are really screwed” because it always ends with “yeah we are and what are we going to do”. In fact the only thing less helpful than that repeat discussion is the “now is the time for political action and rising up” discussion. We are not rising up, full stop, let that fantasy go and move on before that fantasy kills you.

So let’s start talking about practical individual steps.

@Eric Anderson “To me, this whole mess is demonstrating the how absolutely ineffectual what passes for “the left” is in this country.”

Meh.

I’m not inclined to trust that there are ANY good actors in this drama, whose allegiance is primarily to the left, the right, the Democrats, or the Republicans.

The existence of, effectively, a medical mafia in the US (and beyond) is old news. E.g., on this blog I posted about a highly accurate calcium screening test, used by NASA, that costs a few hundred dollars. Widespread use of this test could trigger lifestyle changes that would save a lot of us from strokes and heart attacks.

Insurance won’t cover this, but they will cover $30,000 stent operations. Which you’re likely not to get before a first cardiac event, which may leave you dead or paralyzed.

Cannot a typical 10 year old child immediately understand that something is very wrong, here?

One of the BIG LIES, courtesy of the Republicans, is that we had the best medical system in the world (so why mess with it). Not inspiring, but also not inspiring are some Democrats, and people on the left, telling us that, gee whiz, socialized medicine will cure our sick medical system. What could possibly go wrong with this?

Noam Chomsky addressed the sudden movement towards a national health plan, when Obama appeared, that the American public had wanted since the 50’s. Even during the vitriolic Obamacare debates, a slim majority of Republicans polled said that they would favor it, if it included a public option. Chomsky explained that what was driving the move for Obamacare was that so many Americans were no longer buying high priced, often useless, “health insurance”. They basically couldn’t afford it. I.e., Obamacare was a corporate driven agenda.

I’d be more impressed with the left, right, Democrats, or Republicans if they EVEN just forced the ginormous defects of the current health care system into the public consciousness, and everybody admitted that fundamental reforms are needed, and have been needed. How much good can come from “medicare for all”, even if that drives down per capita health care costs, when it’ll still be overpriced and grossly sub-optimal? If “medicare for all” drives down the cost of stents to $15,000 (billable to the public), but still won’t pay for calcium screening tests, it’ll still be an evil system.

I propose a simple litmus test: any “health care reforms” that will continue to allow an FDA to suppress cheap, alternative therapies, is an insult to the public good, and it’s proponents are naive. Even if a therapeutic agent is out of patent, or not patentable to begin with; and thus will never get a private corporation to pay a half billion $$ or so to get it approved, then the government should pay for such testing.

And if that means that Big Pharma contracts by 90%, so be it.

Usually I come in and give a hat tip to the comments…. today I’m going to have to call it a mixed bag. Some good, some bad, some delusional. At least in my opinion, which doesn’t make it fact. :p

Genocide? Death wish? Medieval? And the list goes on.

A handful of hoopies parading around with semi-automatic rifles does not a movement make. These actions and reactions of our nation and its elite to this virus are exposing real weaknesses not merely succumbing to the pressures of a few lunatics who see the Mark of the Beast in bar codes.

You want to send people home and have them stay for 6 months? You’re going to have to do better than a $1200 check and an unemployment insurance extension. Most people can’t make ends meet on UI, and even if they could they lose health insurance unless they can muster the prohibitive costs of COBRA. Hell, even the $1200 check has been fouled back of the plate due to its incredibly Byzantine legislation and implementation. (Hint: When you really want to get something done, as opposed to providing job security to an Everest sized bureaucracy, it takes a handful of paragraphs and is legible to the average working Joe.)

“History brought forth a great moment but the moment encountered mediocre people.” Friedrich Schiller writing of the French Revolution

How sad that this quote so often has described my own nation these last couple decades.

Will

Satire from a young doctor:

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Typical day in the COVID unit

A lot of people have been asking me what it’s like being on the COVID wards in the hospital, so I figured I’d share what a typical day looks like for me:

6am – Wake up. Roll off of my pile of money that Big Pharma gave me. Softly weep as it doesn’t put a dent in my medical school loans

6:30am – Make breakfast, using only foods from the diet that gives me everlasting life by avoiding all fats, sugars, carbs, and proteins. For details buy my book and check out my shop.

7am – Get to work, load up my syringes with coronavirus before rounds.

8am – See my patients for the day. Administer the medications that the government tells me to. Covertly rub essential oils on the ones I want to get better.

9:30am – Call Bill Gates to check how 5G tower construction is going, hoping for more coronavirus soon. He tells me they’re delayed due to repairs on the towers used to spread the Black Plague. Curse the fact that this is the most efficient way to spread infectious diseases.

10am – One patient tells me he knows “the truth” about coronavirus. I give him a Tdap booster. He becomes autistic in front of my eyes. He’ll never conspire against me again.

11am – Tend to the secret hospital garden of St. John’s wort and ginkgo leaves that we save for rich patients and donors.

12:30pm – Pick up my briefcase of money from payroll, my gift from Pfizer for the incomprehensible profits we make off of the free influenza vaccine given every year.

1pm – Conference call with Dr. Fauci and the lab in Wuhan responsible for manufacturing viruses. Tell them my idea about how an apocalypse-style zombie virus would be a cool one to try for the next batch.

2pm – A patient starts asking me about getting rid of toxins. I ask her if she has a liver and kidneys. She tells me she knows “the truth” about Big Anatomy and that the only way to detoxify herself is to eat nothing but lemon wedges and mayonnaise for weeks. I give her a Tdap booster.

2:45pm – Help the FBI, CIA, and CDC silence the masses. Lament the fact that I can only infringe on one or two of their rights. Oh well, there’s always tomorrow.

4pm – One of my rich patients begins to crash. Laugh as I realize I’ve mismatched her spirit animal and zodiac moon sign. I switch out the Purple Amethyst above her bed for a Tiger’s Eye geode. She stabilizes. I throw some ginkgo leaves on her for good measure

6pm – Go onto YouTube and see coronavirus conspiracy videos everywhere. Curse my all powerful government for how inept they are at keeping people from spreading “the truth”

6:10pm – Go onto Amazon and see that a book about “the truth” is the #1 seller this week. Question the power of my all powerful government. Make a reminder to myself to get more Tdap boosters from the Surgeon General next time we talk.

7pm – Time to go home. Before I leave, sacrifice a goat to Dr. Fauci and say three Hippocratic Oaths.

9pm – Take a contented sigh as I snuggle under the covers made of the tinfoil hats of my enemies, realizing that my 4 years of medical school and 3 years of residency training have been put to good use today.

************************

Dr. Satire forgot to mention the part where he secretly gave bleach Miracle Mineral Solution, hydroxychloroquine, AZT, zinc, and Vitamin D megadoses to the patients he actually wanted to get better. 😈

Poe’s “Masque of the Red Death” is a pretty good representation of the attitude of our own “Aristos” in the current situation. How long before the hoopies start showing up and USING those guns? If I were a state governor, I’d be mobilizing enough of state’s National Guard to keep the rabble out of the Capitol building and surrounded by a couple of hundred NG’s. The only way to prevent actually armed insurrection is to call their bluff. “First one across that line is a dead man”. The optics are not great, but a hell of a lot better than state police watching in helpless terror while an armed mob busts into the state legislature chambers.

Someone was telling me yesterday that Elon Musk was a genius. For me, he’s just another pirate with a gift for self-promotion, a lot like Trump actually except a techie and not so blatantly stupid. You treat your workforce like garbage, which Musk does, you are not a genius. Tesla has been beset by problems because Musk was too stupid to hire managers who knew how to set up supply chains and run an assembly line. It only endured because of large subsidies and hype which gave it an outsized stock valuation.

He’s in the Steve Jobs line. Jobs hated American labor and the country generally. He sent as much of his production abroad as he could to cheap wage countries, then turned around and lobbied Presidents to allow in more cheap H-1b visa programmers from India so he could underpay and abuse them. And finally set Apple up in Ireland to dodge US taxes.

Even Henry Ford who hated unions figured he needed to pay his workers enough to buy his product. In today’s tech world, such a view of labor is seen as hopelessly retro and naïve.

Will:
“A handful of hoopies parading around with semi-automatic rifles does not a movement make”

Not my point. My point is that the handful, and the media attention they get, are more than enough render “what passes for the left” frozen like a herd of deer in the headlights.

Outside of the AF I see nobody willing to push back. Ironically, if the left were to suddenly lose their fear of GUNZ, we would probably see legislation banning them overnight.