Let’s talk about Corbyn and Hezbollah and Iran.
These three things aren’t the same in many ways. But all three are fighting an entrenched system.
When Corbyn was leader, he had the majority of the membership behind him, he took control of the executive committee and he only lacked control of the MPs, who were almost all neoliberals united in hatred of him and his program.
This was a simple situation to deal with: Corbyn had the power to force re-selection: to make MPs face elections in their ridings. Almost all would have been replaced by left wingers: they weren’t popular and couldn’t win.
He refused.
He also had the power to replace the administrative class running the party and elections. He didn’t, and they sabotaged him. Without that sabotage he would have won the 2017 election, which was extremely close. This isn’t hyperbole, we have emails showing they deliberately sabotaged the campaign: they would rather the Tories win than Labour under Corbyn,
Starmer has had no such weakness: he has ruthlessly purged the party membership and leadership of left-wingers.
Now let’s turn to Hezbollah. They kept up steady pressure on Israel since October 7th, but they never seriously attacked. They did damage, for sure: most of the Northern settlements are abandoned and there has been a huge economic cost, but they never did what they could. They were scared, I think, of Israel attacking Lebanon.
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Israel is now attacking Lebanon, hitting multiple hospitals, at least one orphanage and telling first responders that if they go to help injured civilians, they’ll be killed.
What Hezbollah wanted to avoid, happened.
Hezbollah really had two choices: go all in and attack with everything, or do nothing. Half-assing it was not smart. It let Israel choose the time of their attack and spend a year planning and executing, which has lead to the loss of much leadership and apparently a good chunk of Hezbollah’s missile stocks.
This is not 20-20 rear view sight. I said at the start of the war that Hezbollah should attack. Why wait for Israel to beat Hamas down, then turn on them? (Yes, Hamas is still fighting, but attacking when most of the Israeli military was in Gaza and before Hamas had been badly degraded is obviously optimal.)
Now, as for Iran, they too have been overly cautious. I’m impressed by their missile capacities, but they too are sitting on their asses. This is getting close to a North Korea/China situation and it’s time for them to just go all in and stop with the proxy bullshit. Send men and stop the crap.
Khameini himself is 70% of the way to understanding this. He said that the enemy comes for countries, and if you do not defend those countries, why then they eventually come for you. Iran is the end-goal. If Hezbollah is defeated conventionally (they won’t lose a long term guerilla war) then Iran is next.
Caution: building up resources, has served Iran well. But there is time for that, and a time for using the resources. Mao was a war leader, and one of the great generals of the 20th century. He was not afraid of war, and he understood when it was time to fight.
If Iran doesn’t, they put themselves at great risk. Including the possibility that they lose a lot of their weapon stocks in a pre-emptive attack. Are they less compromised by the Mossad than Hezbollah was? Are they sure?
The bombing and so on they seek to avoid will come to them anyway, just as it has to Hezbollah and Lebanon.
Either fight the war or give up, bow to the US and Israel and stop the Resistance.
(Machiavelli observed that most men don’t change. They keep doing the same thing they have always done, even when circumstances change to make old strategies ineffective. Hezbollah has a chance, because their old leadership is dead. Iran needs its old leadership to wake up before they wind up dead and Iran loses.)
StewartM
I agree with you on Corbin. Be like Stalin, just don’t kill them but let them sulk and mutter and hate you from their forced retirement in their dachas.
However, let me play devil’s advocate. Was then Germany right to egg on Austria-Hungary in 1914? (Considering the widely-held but mistaken belief that Russia would become a ‘steamroller’, which didn’t really happen except more than a quarter-century later under a vastly different government). There was a strong opinion in Berlin that ‘we should fight now, as we’ll never be stronger’.
But it is a rolling of the dice. Hitler himself said during all the congratulations and high-fiving going on amid the Nazi leadership at the beginning of Barbarossa, that “the beginning of every campaign is like kicking open the door to a dark, unseen, room. You never know what’s waiting for you inside..”
Of course, as a counter to my devil’s argument, it matters if one’s opponent really is dead-set about destroying you, which was true with Hitler in the 1930s likely true with Israel, but was not true of Russia vs Germany and Austria-Hungary in 1914.
Ian Welsh
Was the war necessary? I’ve never felt that WWI was a necessary war. What precisely did Germany and Austria-Hungary stand to gain that was worth it?
I’d say the argument that the current war is necessary is stronger. Among other things, Israel has been clear for decades that Iran is its ultimate target.
Of course, Iran could bow and give in and make peace like the Saudis.
Hezbollah doesn’t really have that option, though, since Israel really would like to occupy a chunk of their country permanently if they could manage it.
As for Hitler, the real comparison is Britain and France not letting Czechloslovakia be cut up. Had a rather large military the Czechs.
Oh, let’s let Hitler eat the Czechs first, then fight.
I dislike Nazi analogies, they’re overused, but this is a lebensraum situation and a genocidal power, so the shoe fits.
Altandmain
Ian – I think you may have missed the biggest example of someone who made a move recently. The biggest example of a country that made its move is actually Russia. They realized that the West was never going to negotiate in good faith and launched the Special Military Operation.
Putin made his move because he had been lied to about NATO expansion, because the US was planning to station nuclear weapons in Ukraine, had put a Banderist puppet regime into Ukraine via coup that was killing ethnic Russians, and ultimately was using Ukraine as a tool for regime change against Russia, to get another Boris Yeltsin. That Yeltsin would loot and ultimately Balkanize Russia.
That being said, he has taken a very cautious approach since implementing the SMO and until recently, has aimed for diplomacy. Now though, I think the Russians are aiming for victory, which is coming.
The Russian economy has emerged stronger with the sanctions and the Russian military as well. Russian military casualties have been much lower than the West loves to propagandize and Western equipment / tactics have badly under-performed.
—-
The other even more important fight will be China vs the US. Right now the Chinese are in “wait” mode. They realize that the US is in decline and China is rising. The CPC leadership has recognized that time is on China’s side.
Taiwan is being used like Ukraine as the battering ram in the hopes of station nuclear weapons against China and ultimately getting a Boris Yeltsin into China.
At the moment, the Chinese are clearly waiting. Their hope is that they will reunify Taiwan and surpass the US without a fight because their economic, military, and technological power will be so strong that any attack from the US / Western vassals would clearly be suicidal. If the US launches a foolhardy attack (think of it like the US equal to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor), then the US at that point will be sealing its own doom.
Those 2 fights – China and Russia vs the US are going to be far more decisive than what’s happening in the Middle East.
I’d argue though that time is on Iran’s side at this point and Israel is in the process of imploding.
Ian Welsh
In some ways Israel is imploding, yes. I guess it depends how many Lebanese and Hezbollah and Gazan civilians and military the Iranians are willing to sacrifice.
But be clear, Hezbollah took significant hits, and if they had attacked earlier they would have done far better. While I still they think they’ll “win’ in the long run, in fact I’m sure of it, that long run could take years and if it does, it’s going to really, really suck.
Plus if Hezbollah is forced back to being a guerilla insurgency against an occupying force, then Iran is next on the hit list.
Iran needs to take a hand here, a much bigger hand, and stop relying on proxies.
Putin is an example of someone who did fight, in the end. Though if he had just conquered Ukraine back in 2015 he could have done so with far fewer losses. Not sure if the economy could have taken it, but it might have: the fundamental truth of China needing Russia was true then too.
China is right to wait.
These things all depend on circumstances. Iran was right to wait and build up, but now they need to use that build up. There is usually a time when you either have to act or give up.
Also, “miss” is the wrong word. Two examples were enough, and Putin is a complicated one, as noted above. Maybe I’ll do another article on waiting v.s. acting + just walking away. Sometimes #3 is the right thing to do. Iran just needs to decide what it’s going to be: the in-between stance that has worked for so long may not be the best one here.
Altandmain
Ian, part of the reason, as Scott Ritter has noted is because Iran and Lebanon both wanted to appear as responsible governments.
In the case of Lebanon, Hezbollah is also a government (Ian is aware of this, but in the West, Hezbollah is portrayed as nothing more than a terrorist organization). Many Lebanese were critical of Hezbollah because they felt that they were overly focused on the military and less focused on domestic matters.
For Iran, the government has its own challenges. Iran suffered substantially under the sanctions, although they never submitted to the West. The past couple of years now that Iran has closer ties to Russia and China have seen very good growth, to the point where Iran. Iran was reluctant to disrupt that – the government was not the most popular and is working hard to improve its legitimacy among its people. Legitimacy of course comes from economic prosperity.
In both cases, both governments, due to their domestic politics had to be seen as responsible by a large portion of their population and not seeking to provoke an unnecessary war. Both nations have their own respective people to answer to.
Even in Russia, there was an anti-war sentiment at the start of the SMO.
—
Now though things have changed. In many ways, the assassination of Nasrallah was a major mistake by Israel, and as loath as I am to say it, his death was a necessary sacrifice to communicate to the Islamic world and Lebanon that they are in a situation where they have to fight. Support has rallied for Hezbollah in Lebanon since the assassination and the pager attack.
In Russia, Putin is often criticized for not being hardline enough. Many Russians did not understand initially why the SMO had been launched, but now that they understand what the West was trying to do, they feel Putin isn’t hardline enough.
In the case of Iran, Iran had elected through a narrow win a pro-Western reconciliation President, Masoud Pezeshkian, a doctor with no previous experience. Despite everything, apparently the US lied to him about the possibility of lifting US sanctions and a ceasefire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UxDNsowQ0c&t=88s
Pezeshkian was naive and he will have lost a lot of political capital in Iran, but this move will discredit the Iranians who wanted reconciliation. I’ve also learned that there are quite a few wealthy Iranians who have a lot of money invested in the West – it could be that they backed Pezeshkian because they feared losing their investment (and they are worried that closer ties with Russia / China will result in a new elite). Israeli actions will also help discredit them.
Nasrallahs’s successor is more hardline than he was (and Nasrallah was a moderate). The successor to the Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, is also more hardline than Haniyeh was. Pezeshkian’s political future is in question in Iran and his successor will likely also be much more hardline. There were protests in Tehran against him.
https://x.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1840758145720733941
The Iranians know that the Israelis are going to strike back. The missile strike in early October was around 180 missiles from Iran. They gave Russia and US advance warning. I’m hearing as many as 90% of the missiles penetrated (they also launched some decoys and older missiles to confuse Israeli / US air defenses).
Iran is reportedly able to launch 1,000+ missiles at once and the penetration rate will likely be much higher. They also don’t have to give warning.
Meanwhile, Israel’s attack in Lebanon seems to be very unsuccessful. They’ve taken heavier losses than they seem willing to admit.
Ian – I think that the defeat of Israel is going to happen. Just on a much slower time scale than you’d like. Also keep in mind that once the Chinese / Russians surpass the US, the US won’t be in the financial position to bankroll Israel.
Feral Finster
I have been saying this for years, and have been called all sorts of names as a result.
The Resistance needs to decide – do they want to be nice, or do they want to win? Because their enemies already have chosen, and what we might see as moderation and humanitarianism, they see only as contemptible weakness.
To use my favorite analogy once more – quote Bible verses at an armed robber and he will laugh in your face, delighted in your impotence. He already knows that “Thou shalt not steal” and he does not care.
Hold a loaded Colt Python to that robber’s head with the sure knowledge that you will without hesitation pull that trigger, and he will be the one tearfully reciting Scripture, and it won’t matter to him one bit whether or not you have the legal right to kill him or not.
StewartM
Ian
Was the war necessary? I’ve never felt that WWI was a necessary war. What precisely did Germany and Austria-Hungary stand to gain that was worth it?
Exactly. “We must punish the Serbs for the assassination of the archduke lest Austria-Hungary will collapse!!” Huh? There isn’t any way that little Serbia is going to make Austria-Hungary collapse.
Yet, Great Powers have a way of worrying themselves into such imagined threats. With the US of the 1960s, it was Cuba and Castro, then Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh (in fact, Reagan’s 1983 Grenada escapade was done precisely to ‘cure’ the US population from the horrid ‘Vietnam Syndrome’ where Americans had become loathe to once again support wars for the greater glory of United Fruit and Exxon-Mobile). A history professor of long ago once used Cuba and Castro vis-a-vis the US as an example of how Austria-Hungary had come to regard Serbia, and how an idea that was patently ludicrous came to dominate much of officialdom.
I didn’t mean to overplay the Nazi/Hitler analogy, but the difference between the Czechoslovakia crises of 1938 vs the Serbia crises of 1914 was that Hitler definitely WAS ‘out to get us’, where Russia really wasn’t; not any more than Castro or Ho could (or even their Soviet backers) could/would have ‘gotten’ the US. Yes, I do believe that Israel is more an existential threat to Hezbollah and Iran than Russia was to Austria-Hungary.
Mark Level
I think your take on this is very accurate, Ian.
I’d throw in one more historical example. In the case of the 1973 Kissinger-organized coup in Chile, Salvador Allende was warned of what was coming & who was behind it. He could have mobilized and armed his supporters, who were the majority of the populace, and possibly avoided being murdered and decades of Pinochet’s fascist rule, Operation Condor, the kidnapping, “disappearance” (mostly thrown into the ocean from helicopters) of his supporters, etc. if he had manned up and taken the threat seriously.
Looking briefly back at the events of the time, I see that the Christian Dems pretty early on sold him out & aligned with the Right. This was entirely predictable, obviously. Those people are the equivalent (okay, maybe not AS corrupt & wholly owned as the modern Dem. set) of our PMC, devoted to “Meritocracy” (nepotism & connections), “capitalist to my very bones” (as Liz Warren bragged). Not to belabor the 3rd Reich similarities, but let’s not forget that the Social Dems thought Hitler was not a serious threat (just as many people considered Trump a joke during his first run; but actually Trump has the attention span of a fruit fly, & he didn’t have the type of well-organized technocrats that the NASDAP had, some in the party, others in the professional military. )
Which leads me to a slight tangent. Because the big Iranian shot last week was against Military targets entirely, & almost no civilians were killed (we’re told none, except for a Palestinian hit with Iron Dome fragments), the Israelis took as their purported lesson that Iran is a paper tiger, ineffective, etc. Of course, the Israelis are insecure & cowardly liars who will turn every defeat they suffer into a Hasbara “victory”, so a whole salt shaker is needed. And yet–
I think the overall lesson is don’t fight with one hand tied behind your back when your opponent is a genocidal monster. That said, it is interesting that Hezbollah, Ansar Al-Allah, the Qassam brigades and the Iranians are pursuing the high road in many ways, beyond what is needed, & are much more eligible to be named “the world’s most moral Army” than the Zionists, who put their atrocities on Tik-Tok for shits & giggles. (And yes, I know that Hezbollah & the Qassam brigades are not formal “armies” of course, it’s a loose metaphor.)
To cite specifics, John Elmer’s excellent coverage of Qassam brigade fighters inside Gaza always covers the fact that the Quran teaches it’s dishonorable to attack the wounded AND those rescuing the wounded, so they let the Israeli helicopters fly away with the rescued without shooting them down.
This may be militarily unwise, but on the other hand there is a clear message to RoW of who is morally superior and in the right. So in the long term the Palestinians and the Axis of Resistance gain support across the globe steadily, it seems.
This is a difficult puzzle for those of us who have studied philosophy & ethics. I have at many points gotten impatient & annoyed at the AoR’s restraint & caution. However perhaps they are teaching by modeling (probably the most effective form of teaching) so maybe I need to be less skeptical and broaden my spiritual outlook.
I don’t believe in a Theistic “God” who decides which side HE’s on, obviously. That said, I feel like I have started to learn a lot of positive things that will aid my own spiritual practice by watching those opposing the genocide– Ansar al-Allah especially, of course.
If this were the “Civilizational War” that Nuttinyahoo was braying about in Congress, it is clear to 85% or more of the world’s populace at this point who the “savages” are, obviously. Like others, I believe that the Zionist state’s insane levels of hatred, grievance & violence will doom it. It is interesting to note that much of the Muslim world (Saudis, Qatar & Gulf States, Turkey’s leadership also excluded) have taken Nietzsche’s admonition to heart: “If you go to fight monsters, be sure not to become one yourself.”
The Heretic
Actions speak louder than words. From the perspective of the other parties and what responses or countermeasures they must prepare, words that are contrary to actions can be ignored, because ultimately only actions reflect the true intentions of the speaker.
When a country engages in bombing that completely destroys the territory of a people or country, (even if they don’t aim to directly maximize destruction of the people), they aim to destroy the people. When they block humanitarian aid to the people, it is another sign of destructive intent.
When a country engages in large scale bombing that kills hundreds and maims thousands of citizens, they view those citizens, as at best, unimportant collateral damage, and at worst, creatures to be subdued and dominated or exterminated. The government of the people and that people must act in an appropriate manner.
Ian, you are correct, Israel is effectively at war with Iran, and its bloodthirsty rampage in Gaza indicates a stalinesque level of ruthlessness (to be far, if the Palestinians bowed and grovelled before their masters, the zionist settlers and their supporters would still displace them, but they would not kill them…). Peace seeking, firm but reason based negotiations are of little value when dealing with ann enemy both hubristic and dangerous. Iran is at war, whether it wants to or not.
Concerning Iran’s second and more effective retaliation, Iran still needs to be prudent. Did Iran have enough missiles and launchers to destroy Israel air power (its offensive ability in fighter bombers and fixed wing drones, its defensive ability via Iron Dome and arrow and David sling, and its ISR of radars, drones and communications). Furthermore, does it have enough anti ship missiles and launchers and anti-aircraft weapons to hold off an American counter attack? If Iran is not strong enough and needs more time to build up, then a stronger, but still performative strike was perhaps the right answer, As they hope to gain sympathy from the rest of world. If they were strong enough to do massive damage to Israel AirPower, and do substantial damage to America’s navy and airforce should it attack, then I agree, a much stronger, crippling attack should have been conducted against Israel’s Airpower. . As long as no Islamic army lands on Israel itself, and no major civilian casualties are inflicted via destruction of life sustaining infrastructure, or deliberate targeting of large and dense clusters of civilians, Israel will not have backing to launch Nuclear weapons… which besides its air power are the primary things the Axis of Resistance would fear… although the pager attack is very bad, the bombing campaign in Gaza is ultimately much worse.
KT Chong
IMO: Mossad has infiltrated the the top and upper leadership of Hezbollah.
I posted this comment a few days ago: https://www.ianwelsh.net/week-end-wrap-political-economy-october-6-2024/#comments
Summary: seemingly unrelated evidences show that Mossad coordinated with the US State Department to plan and execute the walkie-talkie terror attacks in Lebanon.The US State Department narrowly put and time a global trade sanction on China’s biggest walkie-talkie manufacturer Hytera in April. The objective seems to be to temporarily remove the Chinese company from being able to accept overseas orders, (i.e., by blocking Hytera from accessing the US-controlled international payment system.) Within those two weeks when Hytera was removed from the global market, Mossad + the US State Department were able to steer Hezbollah towards ordering the rigged explosive walkie-talkie from Japan.
That means: a Mossad agent in Hezbollah knew Hezbollah was going to put an order for thousands of walkie-talkies in April. That Mossad agent inside Hezbollah was likely not in the top-tier position, so he was not able to directly influence or put that walkie-talkie order, but he knew when Hezbollah was going to put a large order for walkie-talkies. Hezbollah would have most likely ordered walkie-talkies from China, but Mossad and the US have not compromised the Chinese supply lines. So Mossad and the US manipulated events outside Hezbollah, (i.e., used a sanction to take the Chinese Hytera out of the global market for a time,) to indirectly steer Hezbollah towards buying walkie-talkies from the Japanese ICOM, (which is compromised by the US and Israel.)
That means Mossad has infiltrated Hezbollah, and their undercover agents were near the decision-making level in Hezbollah. Now that the pager and walkie-talkie explosions had wiped out many Hezbollah leadership, I suspect a lot of replacements are actually Mossad undercovers, who are now feeding bad decisions and information to the top level of Hezbollah.
mago
It’s interesting. Buddhist ethics prohibit the taking of life, yet provide exceptions.
There’s a story about the Buddha who in a previous life as a ship’s captain destroyed an attacking force to save his crew and attained a higher rebirth as a result.
It’s all conditional in the relative world. Sometimes you have to kill to serve a higher cause.
Such decisions are above my position and pay scale of course, but smite the unrighteous where ye may.
In the words of Che, hasta la victoria!
KT Chong
Buddhism prohibits not only the taking of a human life but also animal life. Strict Buddhism does not allow the killing of even critters (like rats) and insects (flies and mosquitoes.)
Supposedly Christianity also does not allow murder and taking of a human life. However, it is okay to kill animals. So, if Christians somehow think of another people as less than humans, then it became okay to kill them and commit a genocide, i.e., condoning and committing a genocide involves the mental gymnastics of dehumanizing the people you hate, i.e., do not think of the victims but as animals.
In Buddhism, one is not allowed to take a life of even an animal or insect. So, Buddhists are not supposed to play mental gymnastics to de-humanize a people and rationalize cleansing them.
In that respect, Buddhism > Christianity.
KT Chong
Actually, a Buddhist is not allowed to kill anyone but oneself, which is another major differences between Buddhism and Christianity. Buddhists are not allow to weight between costs/outcomes of the means vs. the end, and therefore Buddhism does not typically allow the taking of one life in order to save many more: you make decision based on what is before you, (and you are not supposed to kill.) You are not supposed to guess or think what will happen next because you do not know and cannot precisely predict what will happen next. In Buddhism, the end NEVER justifies the means: you were NOT suppose to kill a baby even if you know with absolute certainty that the baby would grow up to be Hitler.
Buddhism only allows the taking of ONE life: suicide (for a higher cause), yet it does not allow killing of any other life: human, animal or insect.
On the other hand, Christianity does not allow suicide (your life belongs to God but not to yourself) but is perfectly fine with killing animals, waging holy crusades on non-believers, and burning witches.
Altandmain
@Mark Level
It’s their actions as to why the Palestinians are met with sympathy throughout the world.
The same is true of Russia. They could easily have wiped out the Ukrainians in 2022. They didn’t because they knew the reputational damage it would have done. The West may delude itself, and fabricate atrocities, while pretending their proxy, Ukraine isn’t commiting horrendous atrocities (which they have), but they can’t fool the rest of the world.
Most people in the West don’t understand the Russians have been fighting this war with one hand tied behind their back.
It is also why the Western world is increasingly resorting to censorship or what they calling stopping “disinformation” (which is anything that challenges Western state propaganda). Several channels I know for example were banned from YouTube.
The thing is, the West is clearly in rapid decline. Living standards are falling to developing world levels in many parts of the Western world. Homelessness is rising. The rich have destroyed their own national power through neoliberal economics to make themselves richer in the short run.
Poul
“While I still they think they’ll “win’ in the long run, in fact I’m sure of it, that long run could take years and if it does, it’s going to really, really suck.”
Yes it will suck but that how you defeat a superior military force. Ask the Taliban, Vietcon etc. There is no quick victory.
If you have no air force or air defence you will suffer. There is only attrition left. And here it is a question of willpower not manpower. Which takes time and the more fanatical your opponent the longer.
Worth thinking about is how long does it take to replace spent missiles for Hezbollah
mago
Interesting take on Buddhism KT.
Anon
Many more will have to suffer. Many more will have to die. Don’t ask me why.
Jorge
As to Russia’s conduct of the SMO, it’s pretty clear they tried to force a diplomatic resolution for the first few months, then got the message that the West would not tolerate this. They then switched to a war of attrition, where their advantage is that Ukraine must demonstrate action to get paid. So, Ukraine demonstrates action and gets its people shot up, over and over again.
About WW1: the second chart here is the key. The four peaks of coal in the middle are 1907, 1910, 1913 and 1918. This chart clearly demonstrates how coal gave way to oil as the most important energy source in the world; in particular, coal-powered ships gave way to oil-powered ships. The substance of WW1 was about access to colonial sources of oil. The form, of course, was mediated by an obsolete form of governance (monarchies).
https://visualizingenergy.org/americas-energy-history-in-two-charts/
Jorge
I have seen it claimed that the Spanish Civil War was over, strategically, within several months. However, Franco did not want to deal with millions of fanatical citizens who hated his government. So, he spent another (roughly) 3 years inviting his enemies to dance in front of his guns. And dance they did.
This is a War Of Attrition, and Russia’s SMO is in some sense replaying it.
Purple Library Guy
@KT Chong Yeah, talk to me about Myanmar. No religion is immune to killing people out of religious prejudice. I still remember this clip where a Buddhist monk was comparing the Rohingya to shit.
Buddhism and other reincarnation-oriented religions also have another significant problem for me: It’s easy to blame the downtrodden for their terrible lives–it’s their fault because they must have done something bad in a previous life. Therefore, resistance to vicious authority becomes pointless or even actively wrong.
In general it seems like religions are at their best when they are minority religions and have to stay on good behaviour. Buddhism seems good to us in the West because we don’t see it when it’s in a position to put the boots in.
Mark Pontin
StewartM: ‘Yet, Great Powers have a way of worrying themselves into such imagined threats.’
This may be a message from the Department of the Obvious, but —
‘War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it.’
~ G. Orwell
As with Cuba and the other cases you cite; as in Ukraine, with BlackRock and such bodies buying up its land and resources (and hoping that in Russia, with Putin gone, they will return to the looting of the Yeltsin years); as now, forex,with Jared Kushner and others’ redevelopment plans to site hotels, luxury apartment blocks, and shopping centers on the West Bank once no more Palestinians are there.
Forecasting Intelligence
I would also add that two thirds of Gaza is physically destroyed.
As long as Hamas remains there the Gulf States (the only places that could afford to rebuild Gaza will not invest given their hatred of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The people of Gaza face years of poverty, living in tents and totally reliant on Israel for food.
Who controls the food controls the people.
Bibi will never allow Hamas to regain control of the border with Egypt.
Hamas is doomed essentially.
Anonymous
Hezbollah and Iran are fighting against the collective West. They don’t have an open tab on the best available Western weapons, intelligence, and media cover like Israel. They literally do not have the financial or technological capabilities to pull off the pager/walkie-talkie terror incidences or casually drop 83 bunker buster bombs on hundreds of civilians to assassinate an opponent (who was open to a temporary ceasefire) as revenge against the Israelis, not would they or anyone with humanity left in them stoop to match the depravity of Israel and the West (the Americans and Brits are definitely actively involved in almost every Israeli operation with intelligence and targeting, and quite possibly boots on the ground).
They have to worry about drawing in the US directly in case Israel is seen losing. If they hit hard immediately, they will be ostracized internationally and within their own communities as belligerent.
This isn’t a fight where you bloody a bully on the first day of school and then he’ll leave you alone for the rest of the year. More like handling an insane gun nut neighbor intent on stealing your property, who is also best buds with the local judge, brother in law to the local sheriff, and has compromising pictures of the newspaper editor/banker/mayor/principal. Hit too hard too quickly and their own population will see it as recklessness and the rest of the world will see it as vindication of the Israeli Hasbara.
Taking the slow road is hard and frankly humiliating. It means decades of seeing your comrades and innocent civilians that you pledged to protect die while their murderers brag and slander you on complicit Western media. Hezbollah and Iranian leaderships are not doing this because they’re cowards. They’re far braver than any Western leader – everyone who stepped into their roles knew that they’ll be repeatedly targeted for assassination and demonization and get blown up with their families. They do it because they did a close study of anti-colonial movements and decided that slow and principled is the best course.
Anonymous
Having shipped its entire industrial base to China and crappified its military through colonial wars and bad procurements that enriched the MIC, all the West really have left are starving other countries through illegal sanctions and vibes.
Now China and Russia can and will supply the rest of the world with everything sanctioned by the West at a better price/quality and no strings attached. And genocide is a vibe killer for all but the most depraved Westwood’s.
Ian Welsh
Some religions are more prone to violence than others. I recall there was a book which did a detailed analysis and did, indeed, find that Christian nations were the most violent when measured over the long term.
Democratic nations, despite the propaganda, are also more violent than non-democratic nations.
Ian Welsh
I don’t actually think war crimes are necessary to win. A lot of Israel’s war crimes are stupid and counter-productive, on top of being immoral. You can be ruthless without being evil.
And I don’t think Settlers get the full civilian card.
Carborundum
Israeli operations against Hezbollah are emphatically not the product of a year of planning and execution. This is decades and billions of dollars worth of preparation.
Iran is far more constrained than people realize. The government is massively unpopular and foreign adventuring is a particular flashpoint. People are tired of seeing resources flowing to support organizations like Hezbollah instead of things that matter to them. The whole reason they are messaging so hard on hitting oil infrastructure being a redline is because they are extremely vulnerable to that type of attack. Their entire military structure is designed to make them expensive to attack; the problem is that if someone decides to pay that price, they don’t have a lot of recourse that changes the rules of the game. If the government’s control over the populace was secure, this would be less of an issue – but their control is pretty insecure and it might not take much to get things sliding down hill. There’s enough folks who remember how the Revolution played out – slow and then fast – to be cautious.
A lot of this interpretation seems to be driven by a reluctance to view Iran and Hezbollah as less than 12 feet tall. Instead of accepting that their force structures have very real limitations, we’re essentially saying that they were stupid or didn’t fight hard enough. I really don’t think that’s the case – they’ve made strategic and tactical decisions that make sense for them, based on what they knew at the time. The challenge is that they’ve come up against an adversary that isn’t sucking as much this time as they did last time and is less constrained by external controls than they would – quite rationally – have assumed.
Dan Kelly
IMO: Mossad has infiltrated the top and upper leadership of Hezbollah.
I believe so too.
Then you went off the rails.
I will show you how deep I believe this goes by the end of my comment. I am first going to dissect your Mossad infiltration speculation.
I do not agree with your US-Israel-China-Hytera theory, and my reasoning on that will reveal itself via a few rather obvious questions along the way.
The important point is that it is entirely based on ‘western’ or ‘globalist’ sources, as you yourself allude to.
On this conjecture:
That means: a Mossad agent in Hezbollah knew Hezbollah was going to put an order for thousands of walkie-talkies in April.
This is clumsy.
Mossad-Israel intel (all intel, for that matter) work collectively.
A ‘Mossad agent inside Hezbollah…not in the top-tier position’ would nevertheless be in instant contact with someone in a position to ‘directly influence’ the situation immediately, if it was in fact a situation that called for an immediate decision.
But the scenario you are presenting is akin to an old James Bond movie.
so he was not able to directly influence or put that walkie-talkie order
Again, the entire scenario you present, in the manner presented, is rather inane.
but he knew when Hezbollah was going to put a large order for walkie-talkies.
Information/intel such as this can be obtained by different means than your field agent of old scenario.
But this entire walkie/talkie narrative stinks to high hell. It reeks of an op-story created-planted in order to draw attention away from underlying larger machinations.
Of course, as with many ops it serves multi purposes and first and foremost is the fact that this was the world’s introduction to this type of potential future weapon.
Lots of money in having to secure these going forward.
Create the disease and sell the cure.
Fear and consumption well beyond the mere retail level.
‘god’ help us.
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Mossad undercovers, who are now feeding bad decisions and information to the top level of Hezbollah.
Their own people have been inside for years and the reason they are so confident is because Yahya Sinwar is their man. He’s been cultivated for decades.
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I posted this comment a few days ago: https://www.ianwelsh.net/week-end-wrap-political-economy-october-6-2024/#comments
Everything you are sourcing is Zionist-Globalist, for lack of a better term right now.
Times of Israel and Newsweek obviously.
The South China Morning Post is owned by Jack Ma, one of the world’s wealthiest people.
This despite alleged measures by the Chinese Communist Party-Communist Party of China (CCP-CPC) to tamp down its own massive wealth divide.
The SCMP’s President is an Oxford-educated Canadian who spent two decades at Goldman Sachs.
https://archive.ph/NYkVu#selection-289.24-301.3
https://archive.ph/beBgw#selection-291.2-319.3
The homepage of SCMP – https://www.scmp.com/?module=masthead&pgtype=homepage – screams ‘western’ news source.
Summary: seemingly unrelated evidences show that Mossad coordinated with the US State Department to plan and execute the walkie-talkie terror attacks in Lebanon.
The operative word here is ‘seemingly.’
So are all the same sources straight telling us what they did – and what they are going to do?
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The objective seems to be to temporarily remove the Chinese company from being able to accept overseas orders
and
Hezbollah would have most likely ordered walkie-talkies from China
Does China support Hezbollah? Russia?
The questions are somewhat rhetorical. There is the public face, and there is what needs to be done, and what we are being led to believe is in fact being done.
Is Hezbollah reliant on the whims of the global market for its military defense?
We have been led to believe that Hezbollah is an important – dare I say integral – part of the alleged ‘axis of resistance’ which includes – is in many ways led by – global behemoths China and Russia.
If Hezbollah, as an integral part of the alleged resistance, cannot secure even the most basic comms…
And, much much much more astoundingly, neither China nor Russia can evidently clandestinely provide these most fundamental resources to an integral part of the resistance to Israel and ‘the west’s’ ultimate desire to pulverize and carve up Iran – itself a bulwark against further ‘western’ penetration toward ‘the east’…
Houston we have a problem.
We are told, all from the same sources, that Hezbollah military side has a fiber network, but this was for their civilian personnel.
If true, not good.
This doesn’t make sense. There is always much overlap between the two, and any competent system both recognizes this and secures the entire entity.
Within those two weeks when Hytera was removed from the global market, Mossad + the US State Department were able to steer Hezbollah towards ordering the rigged explosive walkie-talkie from Japan.
Hezbollah doesn’t follow the global market to watch for antics such as this, particularly being that they are evidently wholly reliant on ‘the market’ for their most sensitive communication devices?
Other leading members of ‘the resistance’ like, say, oh I don’t know, RUSSIA OR CHINA – they don’t jump in and pass along a backchannel message that says,
‘Current intel strongly indicates that you are being led to what is in fact an enemy supplier. Recommend not proceeding with sale. Secure reinforcements will be sent.’
And then get a Viktor Bout moving on this.
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This is what the Times of Israel is loudly proclaiming right now:
Gallant: When Israel strikes back, Iran ‘won’t understand what happened to it’
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gallant-when-israel-strikes-back-iran-wont-understand-what-happened-to-it/
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Their own people have been inside for years and the reason they are so confident now is because Yahya Sinwar is their man. He’s been cultivated for decades.
It’s been reported that Hamas was from the outset largely an Israeli creation.
Netanyahu was telling people to give money to it in the months before the October 7 event. This was done with a wink and a nod, knowing that they have the entire organization, whatever its origins, infiltrated.
Do you think any Israelis or diaspora Zionists gave money to Hamas at Netanyahu’s suggestion?
Yahya Sinwar is a founding member of Hamas, their current leader, and is best known:
‘For orchestrating the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he considered to be collaborators in 1989. Sinwar was sentenced to four life sentences by Israel, of which he served 22 years until his release among 1,026 others in a 2011 prisoner exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar
I’ve excerpted a section from a NY Times piece entitled ‘The Hamas Chief and the Israeli Who Saved His Life’ published at the end of May of this year. This emblematic of the script they run:
https://archive.ph/I82lJ#selection-5873.0-5923.55
‘Mr. Sinwar was insisting on freeing “the so-called impossibles’
The question you should ask yourself is why Yahya Sinwar isn’t one of ‘the impossibles.’
There couldn’t be anyone more ‘impossible’ than this guy, but this has the effect of both making you think there is, and also allowing Sinwar to act the crazy Muslim/Arab in the interest of Israel.
The reason the ‘impossibles’ don’t get out is because they won’t do this.
‘From our perspective, we have a right that we’re asking from the Israeli leadership. We aren’t asking for the town.’
This is strange. He goes from over-the-top Arab/Muslim crazy person to someone who defers to ‘Israeli leadership’ and simply desires the masters grant the natives of Palestine ‘a right.’
All in the course of one sentence!
It’s simply not believable that he would go from ‘you better watch out, we’re coming for our land that you stole’ to ‘we’re not asking for the land back, or even some of it back, so that we may live Muslim, or secular Arab culture, or any non-Judaized way of life.’
Instead, he is okay with The Jewish State of Israel granting him a right.
The game is to play the other side to corral the potential resistance, then amp things up to the point of absurdity, then come back down to a point of compromise that is in the interest of the side you were supposed to be resisting, all the while gaining intel and slowly pacifying what were/would have been the resistors.
‘The population of the town was completely changed in 1948–49. Bir Seb’a (Arabic: بئر السبع), as it was then known, had been almost entirely Muslim, and the 1947 UN Partition Plan designated it to be part of the Arab state. It was occupied by the Egyptian army from May 1948 until October 1948 when it was captured by the Israel Defense Forces and part of Arab population fled, relocated or was expelled.’
‘Today, the metropolitan area is composed of approximately equal Jewish and Arab populations.’
https://archive.ph/oGjgd#selection-3839.0-3839.61
The numbers may be equal now, but they are working diligently to ethnically cleanse the remaining non-Jewish population.
The status of Jews vs non-Jews in Israel is not equal, nor is there even a pretense of equality towards non-Jews in any of the legal structures down to the administrative level.
Israel is a Jewish State that smugly looks down upon all non-Jewish life. This is written into every code and law starting at the administrative level. It is the zeitgeist of the society.
Chomsky used to write about this – claims it’s the reason his family left the kibbutz they were on. Noam Chomksy is a Jewish Zionist.
And it’s gotten much worse since he was writing about it.
‘We’re not asking for the town.’
I wonder why Sinwar didn’t use the opportunity to talk about the town where superhero Dr. Yuval Bitton’s hospital stands. The town is currently called Beer Sheva (Beersheva) but it was formerly known as al-Jammama – الجمامه.
https://www.palestineremembered.com/Beersheba/al-Jammama/index.html
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Interesting comment to that PalestineRemembered link above. A commenter from China (comment#162583 by Msy on March 26, 2023):
‘I am from China. In our country, the vast majority of people have no
kinship or religious ties with Jews or Arabs (or Muslims, Christians). In
the past year, what is happening in Ukraine has occupied a large part
of the public opinion (not only in the United States, Japan, Europe, but
also in our country), causing heated discussion (in order to avoid
causing controversy, my personal opinion will not be mentioned).
At the same time, Palestine seems to have been forgotten by the world, and may not even have been heard by many people. In our country, Although the official history book describes as follows “The strategic position of the Middle East is important. For a long time, major powers have intervened in the region, and the conflicts between Arab and Jewish nations have become more complex. In 1917, Britain issued the Belfort Declaration, supporting the establishment of a Jewish state. The continuous influx of Jews has led to increasingly fierce friction between Jews and Arabs. In November 1947, the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted a resolution on the partition of Palestine, stipulating that the British mandate over Palestine ended in August 1948, and thereafter”
The establishment of an Arab state and a Jewish state in Palestine. It is opposed by Arabs,” but there are also many influential people and right-wing media with political positions who do not tell the truth in Palestinian discussions, favor Israel, and vilify the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, leading to misleading people.
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This was Gilad Shalit on the day he got out of jail:
https://archive.ph/frDeI#selection-337.0-345.66
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They’re only comfortable with their own kind – Jerry Seinfeld, on gays
Ashley Cotton
Why Russia didn’t go hard in 2014
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/08/26/book-review-alexander-zhuchkovsky-85-days-in-slavyansk/
Dan Kelly
I emailed Ian and asked him not to post my comment because I didn’t edit it well, and it reads as if I’m confusing Yahya Sinwar as leading Hezbollah rather than Hamas.
Looking at things with fresh eyes this morning, it’s not as bad as I thought it was last night. I’m glad Ian posted it.
Every time I do a ‘deep dive’ into this and dare to go beyond what is already obvious and superficial, I end up with far too many tabs open.
Here are the important points I was attemtping to convey:
On Yahya Sinwar and Hamas:
Yahya Sinwar isn’t an ‘impossible’ why?
He acts crazy and subverts all chances at peace even among other Hamas ‘hardliners’ not to mention ‘moderates’ from PLO/Fatah…and then does a complete 180 and says they’ll live under rights granted them by the Jewish Zionist regime?
I answered my own question. This is why he isn’t an ‘impossible.’
Why doesn’t he doesn’t stay on point with the facts?
There are no words emanating from this man that in any way indicate he cares about Arab/Muslim/Palestinian hiustory, culture or lives.
All his words – and actions – benefit Israel.
Someone who does care would immediately make the point that the hospital he was treated at by the hero of the story, Dr. Yuval Bitton, has an important history that is being entirely re-written before our eyes in the interest of Israel:
https://www.palestineremembered.com/Beersheba/Beersheba/index.html
https://www.palestineremembered.com/Beersheba/Beersheba/Story12404.html
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On Hezbollah’s operation:
The obvious questions are right in front of you. This is a mess.
China and Russia need to do better here. Much better.
Can they be relied upon given their own massive wealth divides and the straight fact that the wealthy elite who control their own political-military apparatus benefit mightily from globalization and the money and power it yields?
I’ll tell you what: Kill one important person in Israel. Take out Gallant or something. Can you do that?
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I live in the United States and we are forever told that 6 million Jews died in WWII
We don’t hear much about the upwards of a hundred million or more non-Jews who died – majority civilians, women, children.
There are no memorials to them, and that fact isn’t nearly as emphasized in the ‘education’ our children have to succumb to.
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I was able to ‘get away’ from all this for a bit after my last comment which I believe was quite concise. I intentionally ended it with Gus Savage’s speech to the world – before an empty congress.
Gus Savage’s speech is the most important item you can digest if you want to understand what is going on in the world.
The speech is also ‘working class’ to its very bones, though I don’t think Marx would like it.
It’s also ‘populist’ to its very bones, though I don’t think Trump would like it.
Most of his supporters would if you would simply show them that their country – the country many of their children have allegedly died for – is thoroughly occupied by Israel and its operatives.
That is why they get out in front of these things. The best way to control any existing or potential opposition is to infiltrate it under the guise of being in its own interest. It can then be controled both from within and without.
‘The game is to play the other side to corral the potential resistance, then amp things up to the point of absurdity, then come back down to a point of compromise that is in the interest of the side you were supposed to be resisting, all the while gaining intel and slowly pacifying what were/would have been the resistors’
Gus Savage’s speech is frankly downright brilliant. Mr Savage carefully crafted this speech to touch on a wide range of issues that all relate back to this one issue, and he does it with humor and an easygoing aplomb.
And why not? After all, he’s merely stating facts.
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Thought experiment: Imagine you don’t know anything about this issue beyond the superficial. Imagine you’re an average citizen in the US or in most places around the world.
Now, read this first:
https://www.upi.com/Archives/1990/03/28/Congressman-calls-pro-Israel-lobby-un-American/1375638600400/
And now listen to Gus Savage’s speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQP8V-kZ2EQ
Wake up.
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I would simply add here that Joe Kennedy and anyone who didn’t believe the United States should enter WWII were made out to be ‘antisemitic’ – whatever that means – precisely because they didn’t believe the United States should enter WWII:
https://www.ianwelsh.net/look-israeli-ground-forces-suck-their-country-is-postage-stamp-sized/#comment-154644
Dan Kelly
Why Russia didn’t go hard in 2014
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/08/26/book-review-alexander-zhuchkovsky-85-days-in-slavyansk/
Thank you Ashley Cotton.
Vladimir Putin rose within the bowels of the Kremlin for close to two decades before deciding to enter the political realm. Those two decades were the seventies and the eighties.
He entererd politics at the beginning of the 90’s – the Clinton era here in the United States.
The question Gilbert Doctorow ought to ask himself is why someone who has been studying Israel and ‘the west’ and its actions throughout this period, and is privy to all its historical machinations as well – why did Vladimir Putin ever trust ‘the west’ in any way, shape or form to begin with?
Because the story is that he did at one time.
And frrankly, if true, that is downright stupid.
Vlad Putin is not a stupid man.
We are supposed to believe that Vladimir Putin, KGB extraordinaire and now vaunted world leader to some – and evil dictator to others…Putin somehow didn’t thoroughly understand – or temporarily forgot – Noam Chomsky’s simple adage:
Nation states don’t act altruistically.
The challenges to Russia’s move to subdue Ukraine today come from the eight years of work on its own and with the help of allies that Kiev has used to prepare militarily for this very conflict, in particular, by building vast fortifications just to the west of the demarcation line with the Donbas republics.
In short, this indicates both horrendous intel and military awareness, planning and strategy on the part of Russia for years, leading right up to the present day.
That is, if in fact the strategy is what we are led to believe.
Ukraine has received both modern military equipment and extensive training under NATO country programs. The results serve them well.
Wait a second here!
I thought the Israel(Zionist)-CIA-US-NATO thingy was an empty shell these days, a legend living on its past, a history which itself is largely a myth of its own making.
Yet they nevertheless somehow STILL manage to engage in activities that ‘serve them well.’
Good luck.
Their concrete reinforced trenches and bunkers are resistant to most artillery fire and they are positioned in the proximity of residential communities, meaning that carpet bombing or other drastic methods would result in enormous civilian casualties, which the Russians cannot tolerate amidst a population they hope to acquire. In this same period of time
A population they hope to acquire isn’t nice language Gilbert, even if in fact many/most of the human beings there do want to continue to speak Russian and live lives that are more ‘culturally Russian’ for lack of a better descriptor.
I don’t think they want to be ‘acquired’ though.
You really have to be careful how you speak and write, Gilbert.
In other news, Israel does not have to ‘tolerate’ this minor detail of human lives. It in fact celebrates the fact that it doesn’t.
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Just for kicks and giggles of course:
This is from an old episdoe of NewsRadio, out of which ‘controlled opposition’ influencer Joe Rogan crawled:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChgFXqPIjCI
People, five year olds can understand this stuff. This one is a little dirty:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAm5KTWvUTk
Didn’t Vance go to Yale?
Imagine if Ronald Reagan had just ‘come out of the closet.’
Evidently, that wasn’t in the script at that point.
different clue
When a thread gets long enough it can develop sub-threads within itself. The subthread I see here about Christianity “versus” Buddhism on the “what or whom can you kill” issue reminded me of a little subthread I once say and took a small part in.
It was at Col. Lang’s Sic Sempter Tyrannis blog. I forget the subject of the post and most of the main thread but I remember this little subthread . . .
Someone: ” Everything I know about Islam I learned on 9/11.”
Someone else: ” Everything I know about Judaism I learned at Deir Yassine.”
Me: ” Everything I know about Buddhism I learned at Cox’s Bazaar.”
Thus endedeth the subthread.