Just eyeballing it, but it seems that more missiles are getting thru than are intercepted.
Videos show dozens of missiles flying over Tel Aviv, with some of them landing. The Israeli military says the missiles were fired by Iran and that a “large number” had been intercepted. pic.twitter.com/NUYX5bOa29
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) October 1, 2024
Iran has said this is punishment for the Israeli assassinations. It has also said that it will defend Lebanon. And, as Nate pointed out, the missile attack is widespread:
Seems Israel isn’t going to have everything its own way.
Meanwhile the US has sent thousands of troops to Israel to “defend.” The US has been an active participant, for a while, as have been Germany, Britain and others, but this is a step beyond.
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Let’s make this really simple. If you’re trying to stop a genocide, you’re a hero. If you’re enabling a genocide, you’re a villain. Hezbollah and Iran have been trying to put pressure on Israel to stop their mass murder, and most of the West, with a few honorable exceptions like Ireland, have been helping them.
But what’s clear now is that if there’s a real war, it isn’t going to be one-sided. In the past the Israelis would bomb the shit out of their enemies, and be almost entirely safe. No longer. Israel’s not a large country, and Iran has plenty of missiles.
The main thing I’d want to see now (though I doubt it will happen) is for Russia to put Iran under their nuclear window: announce that use of nukes against Iran will be considered use of nukes against Russia.
This conflict, which threatens to become general war, is far from over.
Edit: initial reports of Mossad HQ being taken out appear to have been wrong. My apologies.
Carborundum
Looked to me like something on the order of three or four dozen impacts, based on oblique imagery from several angles. Official statements of the IDF and US DoD to the effect that they had seen between 180 and 200 missiles launched. Based on the number of impacts, I would assess as the majority either being intercepted or otherwise not making it to target (a non-trivial number of missiles in the previous attack broke up during the ascent phase or on re-entry). IDF is saying that there were no Israeli fatalities, which would be pretty remarkable. If true, Iranian strategic deterrence has taken another real kick to the teeth.
I would bet that the Iranians are going to eat some reasonably serious ordnance after this one. The Israelis are going to be less inclined to listen to any external calls for restraint and the external powers – having gotten a sense that the Israelis are making much more process attriting Hezbollah than they thought possible – are less likely to be offering any. I have a feeling that the major danger is going to end up being panic and inter-factional competition within Iran; seems to me like they may go non-linear.
Soredemos
The previous attack months ago was mostly a combination of drones and cruise missiles, with a few ballistic missiles. It was announced hours before and air defense had plenty of time to scramble, but still some got through to impact in places like the middles of runways.
At the time defenders said it was merely a pointed warning, while detractors said no, that was the limit of Iranian capabilities. They couldn’t actually do any better.
The detractors were fools, as plenty of people said at the time, and current events have removed all doubt. Iran can beat any air defense Israel possesses. It’s not even clear they used any drones or even slower missiles here to saturate the defenses. The combination of speed and terminal maneuverilability of their ballistic missiles and a possible hacking attack on the defense network allowed most of the missiles to get through.
The copious video evidence leaves no room for doubt (there was plenty of video evidence during the previous attack as well that air defense was outright failing, but the fools insisted that wasn’t the case).
Iranians aren’t stupid, they aren’t ignorant, they aren’t backward, and they aren’t poor. They’ve spent a lot of time and effort getting their technology to this point.
Nate Wilcox
Carborundum: What ordnance is Iran going to eat? How will it be delivered?
Ian Welsh
Carborundum: What ordnance is Iran going to eat? How will it be delivered?
Curt Kastens
I thnk that it would behoove the Iranians to fire off everything that they have as fast as they can. (Use it before they loose it.) They need to target Israeli Civilian Infrastructure and US military forces in the region. They need to make life for Israelis impossible. They need to eliminate all US bases in the Persian Gulf. Then they need to pray like hell that the Chinese attack Taiwan and US bases in Japan and Korea to devert US attention from Iran.
That’s what I would do if I were Khameni. I am not Khameni. But maybe I am the Mahdi. :>)>
mago
If you’re a Blinken, a Winken or a Nod you can claim anything, like Israel with the aid of America intercepted the majority of the missiles.
After all, who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
Of course there’s video evidence giving lie to the spinmeisters, but who knows?
Not to mix metaphors or anything, but the hornet’s nest has been kicked and the powder keg’s exploded.
And we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Holy Krakatoa, Batman!
mago
And another thing, where’s all this serious ordnance coming from?
Are there infinite bombs, missiles and artillery in the West’s inventory?
With all the bombardment and carnage in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, how vast are the remaining stockpiles?
I don’t know, but there must be a limit.
Siempre hay límites.
Oakchair
If you’re trying to stop a genocide, you’re a hero. If you’re enabling a genocide, you’re a villain.
——
True.
Also true is that we live in a society where:
War is peace
Slavery is freedom
Ignorance is strength
Trump or Harris becoming president cannot result in a fascist dystopian state in the same way that having sex with your pregnant wife cannot cause a pregnancy.
AbsoluteCandor
Israel attacked someone that actually has an army, a way of fighting back equally?
Soredemos
@Carborundum
“Okay, fine, I guess some missiles got through. But they probably broke apart towards the end” is some really desperate cope.
Carborundum
That’s the $64,000 question. They conducted deep strike on a couple of largely symbolic targets last time, demonstrating that they could hit deep and take things out, including surface to air detection radar apparently without Iranian detection. My understanding is that they used standoff systems, firing from outside Iranian airspace.
The key challenge for the Israelis is that the next step up could be a *big* step up, getting into the realm of strategic air campaigns, that I don’t know if they truly have the chops for. If I’m them, the big thing that I would be concerned about would be materially reducing Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. The difficulty with hitting them is that they are either disbursed or in hardened facilities. The logical move instead of hitting them may be what the IDF has already messaged – hitting energy and/or nuclear facilities. I tend to lean towards energy facilities as a) they are a *lot* more vulnerable, particularly to long distance standoff attacks and b) if I were in the Israelis shoes, I wouldn’t want to tip my hand about my capabilities against their nuclear targets. The Iranians are at breakout capability and being able to take that off the board on short notice is critical and may well involve one way trips for the airframes and pilots involved; unless I had indications that they were going to play that card, I wouldn’t want to launch for fear that it would cause them to rebuild in more effectively hardened facilities.
What specific systems they’d hit energy infrastructure targets with I don’t have great insight into, but I would imagine that the number of aim points involved to cause real pain would mean committing a fair number of aircraft, likely using systems with less range than what they hit Esfahan with. What type of package that means, I don’t know – I don’t have a great sense of whether F35 has the legs for this without external tanker support. The published combat radius seems to indicate that Iranian facilities (I assume Kharg Island) can be held at threat, but I suspect they’d be on the edge here. I’d imagine that one could materially boost the range by climbing to altitude and tanking inside Israel (even better if one could cheat and tank over Saudi) or certainly by using external stores if low observability wasn’t critical early in the flight.
Bottom line, as I say $64,000 question – the diligent reader may note from the degree of uncertainty, my insight into the Kirya’s thinking is limited.
Carborundum
To be clear, the structural failures were with the missiles used in the April attack. We don’t currently know whether any of the vehicles in the current attacks suffered failures or not. History suggests it’s a possibility and we seem to have a pretty significant discrepancy between the number of launches and the number of impacts. I have a difficult time, given what we think we know about Israeli ABM systems and how difficult hit to kill is, that successful intercepts account for the to totality of the difference.
The number of ballistic missiles used in the previous attacks was assessed at somewhere around 100, making up about a third of the strike package. They seem to have performed significantly better than the drones and cruise missiles and don’t seem to have been greatly aided by them – reporting was that substantially all of the drones and cruise missiles were downed before entry into Israeli airspace. I suspect this explains why we didn’t see similar tactics this time. Not a lot to be gained for the resource expenditure and the Russians are paying cash on the barrelhead for those systems. I have not seen any credible assessment of warhead maneuvering, nor do the trajectories look like depressed shots. If they’re using them, they don’t seem to be exploiting their full capabilities.
Revelo
>The main thing I’d want to see now (though I doubt it will happen) is for Russia to put Iran under their nuclear window:
Nuclear umbrellas are mostly bluff, IMO. USA umbrella over Canada and Mexico is real, as is Russian umbrella over Belarus and Kazakhstan, but that’s about it. USA will not put itself at risk for sake of Poland, let’s say, or even Britain, nor would Russia put itself at risk for Iran. USA would however use every conventional weapon at its disposal to respond to nuclear attacks by Russia on Poland and China would likely support USA in this case. Big 3 nuclear powers all have strong incentive to discourage use of nukes by other Big 3, because they all want to avoid incentivizing small countries to become nuclear armed.
From what I have read, Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO. USA has been waffling about letting Ukraine use missiles to strike deep into Russia, but there will be no such limits on Israel. And USA has world’s best satellite intelligence to guide those missiles. So there is the option for Israel to destroy all sorts of power plants, water purification plants, dams and other vital infrastructure in Iran. Blowing up nuclear power plants is a war crime but that won’t stop Israel since they are already guilty of other war crimes. So Iran is wise to be cautious of war with Israel.
Main Iranian deterrent is to threaten to attack oil infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf area or even beyond. Block the straight of Hormuz, destroy oil ports, strike merchant oil tankers at sea, etc. This will send oil prices into the stratosphere, which USA doesn’t want, especially not before the November presidential election. So USA will probably force Israel to restrain itself to avoid this Iranian response.
Russia is probably not going to get deeply involved helping Iran fight because they don’t want the global south or China to blame them for soaring oil prices (obviously, Russia benefits from high oul prices), nor do they want to be a target of Israeli terrorism. Russia and China will probably continue their existing economic and military cooperation with Iran, and offer to act as mediators and peace makers, but they won’t join any war.
Curt Kastens
it does not appear to me that the leadership of Iran realizes that it is now in a war in which not only the rule of the Islamic Regime is at stake but the exsitence of the Iranian people is at stake. Therefore the Iranian military is justified in fighting like there is no tommorrow.
Despite all of his hot air Erdogon is showing which side he is really on. The leadership of Egypt and Saudi Arabia are proving that they are still owned lock stock and barrel by the Americans as well.
Anonymous
The Iranians already stated in no uncertain terms that if Israel hits their energy facilities, Iran will hit oil production capacity in the Gulf Arab states. They also stated that if Israel hits back, the next strike will be bigger and more impactful.
I wouldn’t assume that Iran’s air defense is worse than Israeli one. Yes, for coverage against small slow missiles and drones, Iron dome has better coverage given the amount of money lavished to cover a small area. But Iran has months (since the clear failure of their initial deterrence effort resulting in the Haniyeh assassination) to get superior Russian air defense tech to cover key areas and against aircrafts that would likely carry the really big bombs. The US military satellite coverage is extensive, but the Ukraine front show that electronic warfare techniques show that they can be effectively jammed. Iran is not Lebanon or Gaza that’s not allowed to have any air defense system,
This strike is more impactful than the previous strike, but gave sufficient warning to evacuate the sites and minimize casualties, so Iranians are still trying to give the Israelis a chance to deescalate and save face. Will they take it and also take the chance to get it off the Lebanese quagmire they just had to get into? It’s possible if somewhat cooler heads in Pentagon and IOF comes out on top.
However, the slow and measured ratcheting during the past year already built consensus within the non-western stakeholders that there’s no alternative but a destructive regional war to drive out Israel and its imperialist backer, and now unmask the comprador regimes in the region for what they are.
Don’t overestimate Israel’s strength. Israel can rain death from the sky against civilians using American bombs, intelligence, and likely pilots (as Laith Maruth noted, Israel doesn’t have enough planes to fly the number of sorties that it has done in the past week against Lebanon). But it hasn’t defeated isolated and hungry Hamas after 362 days.
Anonymous
One under reported target of Iranian attack is against Israel’s offshore gas platform. This is a major source of cheap energy for Israel and a big chunk of the EU’s strategy to ween itself off of Russian gas. Now it’s gone and won’t be replaced until there’s a ceasefire. Israel’s electricity generation is still heavily dependent on coal, previously from Russia and then Colombia and South Africa, Colombia has stopped the coal exports and I assume they’re now buying expensive coal on the secondary market from Turkey or India. The oil is about half Azeri oil that Erdogan continues to slow to transit through Turkey to the great anger of the Turkish citizenry. A good chunk of the rest is stolen Syrian oil sold by the Kurds, who are now fought off by the now Assad aligned tribes. Small quantities can be brought over by tankers or trucks, but those supply lines are threatened by BDS, Houthis and Iraqi resistance, and increasingly Palestinian resistance outside of Gaza.
Looking at other economic indicators. Israel has taken on a massive amount of debt, more than any small country can realistically pay off. Even though much of these bonds are backed by the US government, the rating agencies have put its rating just one notch above junk bond. Israeli tech is now an abomination associated with the beeper attacks. BDS movement, although viciously suppressed in the West, had gone from boycott of things made in the occupied territory to anything remotely linked to Israel. Small businesses are going bankrupt and even big corporations are dealing with huge disruptions from mobilization of reservists and banning of Palestinian workers.
According to Shir Hever, the Israelis themselves have no hope for the economic future of their country and are moving their investments/persons out. This is the portion of the population with the money and capability to keep a society running. Without them all you have are a bunch of feral settlers who think land stealing is a viable long term economic model. It likely has tens of thousands of significantly disabled vets who will need life long support and cannot fully contribute economically. Think homeless Vietnam vets in the eighties and nineties, times ten or twenty.
Israel is done. The only question is who it’ll brutalize along the way.
Mark Pontin
Revelo: ‘From what I have read, Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO.’
Revelo and nobody else here seems to be factoring in that large Russian military air transports have been constantly flying into Iran and flying out for at least the last four months.
One would therefore expect the Iranians to have taken delivery of and have installed Russian S-300 and, probably, S-400 air defense systems, which are superior to Western equivalents like Patriots or anything Israel has, as well as Russian EW systems, which are more capable than anything the US possesses. One would also rate as probable that the Russians have transferred some of their offensive missile capability, including their hypersonics.
Iran has a relative lack of fifth-generation fighter planes, which the F-35 putatively is. But: –
Firstly, given the prevalence and dominance of missile technology, in 2024 manned fighter vs manned fighter combat arguably belongs to the same category of no-longer-relevantant military history as manned tank vs. manned tank battles now seem to be, based on Ukraine;
Secondly, the F-35 is a piece of overpriced, over-engineered, unreliable junk.
Thirdly, the Russians might just have transferred some of their Sukhoi-53s to the Iranians.
Here are the specs on the Su-57 —
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Specifications_(Su-57)
Here are the F-35’s —
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_F-35_Lightning_II#Specifications_(F-35A)
I once heard a F-35 pilot reduced to claiming that while the F-35 has lesser flight capabilities than the Su-53, its standoff capabilities were superior to the Russian plane’s. But that’s not going to be true, given what we now know about Russian EW capabilities.
More generally, in history quite a few instances exist of nations and cultures blindly continuing to assume their military superiority long after that superiority’s historical moment is over: the Islamic world’s shock at Napoleon’s army’s conquest of Egypt is one example that always comes to mind, because they were three centuries late in that realization.
(And, more ironically, the British turned up shortly after, formed an alliance with the Ottomans, and beat Napoleon’s army so handily that the remains of Napoleon’s troops had to be repatriated to France in British ships.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alexandria_(1801))
I bring all this up because the assumption in the West is that US military kit is superior to Russian kit. Except in the areas of nuclear submarine technology and orbital oversight by satellite, that’s largely no longer true and Russian kit is superior, especially in the realms of missile and EW technology.
So Israeli strikes on Iran are going to be interesting. We’ll see.
Tallifer
The internet these days allows all kinds of alternate facts. For example, the Guardian, New York Times, Washington Post, Politico and Atlantic all state that Israel and its allies blocked most of the Iranian missiles:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/iran-israel-war-lebanon/680114/
Purple Library Guy
A war between Iran and Israel would obviously be bad for both of them, and both have strong reasons to avoid one. But, they’re also both at that “refuse to retaliate and look weak” place, along with, in the case of Iran “Seems like Israel is just going to keep on escalating so what the hell.”
I think it’s true that as Revolo says, “Iran’s overall air war attack/defense capabilities are inferior to that of Israel backed by USA and rest of NATO”. However, a couple of caveats there: First, I’d say Israel’s capacity leans more towards planes with bombs, Iran’s more towards missiles. And the problem with planes is every time you send some out, air defences could kill them. Then they can’t go out again. Second, Iran is just a much bigger place than Israel. Iran can disperse its stuff a LOT better. If Israel successfully drops twice as much ordnance on Iran as the reverse . . . Israel loses.
Meanwhile, Israel is going to also be fighting Hezbollah. And, NATO will continue to be distracted somewhat by the war in Ukraine . . . which is going worse and worse for Ukraine. Russia just took Vuhledar. It’s a place with a bit of importance, but for me the point is, Russia tried several times before, and the Ukrainians cleaned their clocks every time, because it’s a very strong point. A general got sacked over it. The same unit was still there defending it, but this time the Russians took the place in days, couple of weeks if you count some preparatory flanking moves, as far as I can make out without taking that many casualties. Sure, they played it smarter this time, but still . . . if they can take that place in a short time without too much trouble, it says some serious things about how much gas the Ukrainians have left in the tank. And if that war ENDS, Russia can start paying attention to the Middle East.
I don’t think anyone is really going to be able to brag about the outcome of all this. It’s going to be ugly and a lot of innocent people are going to die. I really wish things had not boiled over for just a few more years . . . by 2030 the Middle East will be significantly less important in world politics, as the energy transition hits its stride and oil demand drops. We could have ended up with a situation where Israel thought about doing something ruthless, went to the US for backup and the US said “We don’t care–don’t need an unsinkable aircraft carrier in that shithole any more.”
Mark Level
I’m very appreciative of this site at this time, it is one of very, very FEW one can go to for actual, vetted info instead of the Narrative Spin from the MIC that dominates the Media space in the West. I think the last 3 posts by Ian have been really substantial, because we seemed to shift from the preliminary levels of the West-ignited (or stumbled into?) WW III, with possible global annihilation at stake.
I too wish Russia would more proactively contribute to the Axis of Resistance against the Axis of Evil, but they do things their own way, obviously. As to my concerns that Iran would never get off the pot and into the game, that seems to be assuaged. Nuttinyahoo kept poking at the Muslim world & piling on the atrocities, even that prior ineffective new leader, Pezeshkian, who seemed so cowardly & wanting to “compromise” with the US-Israel genocide machine has been forced to get off the pot & into the game.
I’ll agree with Curt K. (last comment up as I post) & add more. Everyone knows Erdogan, Egypt, & Saudia Arabia are worthless & led by pro-West flunkies. I kind of expect the sellout (half-British) ruler of Jordan will see his days numbered soon, certainly hope the same for al-Sissi & the Saudis eventually. I had to laugh when Jordan’s king explained his collusion with Israel, “If anyone would send missiles over our airspace to hit another, we’d knock them down” in this case on Israel’s behalf. Does this apply if the Izzys are sending missiles over Jordan to murder Lebanese or Syrians, their fellow Arabs, or even to their (somewhat) co-religionists in Iran? Clearly not, sadly No!!
Among all the bluffing & projection, I’m starting to wonder if with the upcoming one year anniversary of Israel’s starvation & genocide, we will see a widening revolt against these sellouts on the “Arab Street”? I honestly don’t know the certainty, but the odds that there will be a repeat of c. 2011 becomes likelier the more outrages Israel causes, while Blinky & pals stand aside and arms and supports Israeli atrocities, pretending to “work 24 hours a day” (an absurd Kamala-Biden claim) to NOT have any cease fire, & pursue the genocide to the end.
Tallifer
P. S. Looks like Israel is capable of defense: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/02/west-defend-israel-iranian-attack
Carborundum
I don’t think there’s a very high probability that Mossad headquarters was “levelled”. The complex that it is in is huge (it includes quite a lot of space devoted to other intelligence organizations, notably Unit 8200).
Imagery circulating on Twitter shows a missile impact that looks like it was about 250 metres north of the north boundary of the main compound, but other imagery seems to show that that missile came in some distance from a string of the missiles.
This imagery shows an impact that I think is at about 32.147459° N 34.807482° E
https://x.com/oftheroyalblood/status/1841200888079069434
This is said to show the same impact from another angle – looks to me like it was some distance from the other missiles, which I think were going after Tel Nof.
https://x.com/oftheroyalblood/status/1841200107112341662
The first ten minutes of this gives a decent perspective overview of the Tel Aviv attacks, shot from just south of the Tel Aviv Hilton.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvlFuTMT4UI
Ian Welsh
Most probably a lot of missiles were stopped before getting close. But quite a lot got thru, we’ve got multiple videos of hits at multiple sites and many hits.
Mark Level
Hey, Tallifer– I clearly recall all the “experts” you quoted a year (or even more?) back about how Ukraine would wipe the floor with the weak, cowardly, ignorant Russians. How’d that turn out? Are you aware that nearly everyone with any expertise (and even neighbors like Germany) now know that Ukraine has lost the war, & that at this point it’s only a matter of time until Russia decides to take the 4 Russian-speaking oblasts (like Crimea) permanently.
Hopium & spin from the serial liars at the NYT, Guardian etc. only go so far. How many wars has the US won against “weaker” opponents? Not Vietnam, Korean peninsula a stalemate, not Syria, Iraq still occupied but little US influence, “stone age” level Afghanistan drove the US out after over 20 years . . . okay, I’ll grant you Gulf War I (by Bush Sr.) & Grenada. I mean okay, the Hillary coup ousted Qadafi and then created a tripartite state run by Warlords in Libya. Perhaps you consider that a “success” but most fair onlookers wouldn’t. And we’ve couped any Haitian leadership that cared about their people at all and made the place poorer & more miserable, to most decent people that doesn’t seem to be positive. 60 years of sanctions & blockades against Cuba, & it still stands, independent. Venezuala is recovering & the sham “President” Guaido is now a college instructor in Florida. How many other “wins” does the US have– what have I missed?
At some point we need to be facts & evidence based. We have very little in common politically, but I would imagine that you, like me, believe in the evidence for human-driven Climate Change which something like 95% of the scientific community supports . . .
It’s clear where your values lie, & those are very different than mine. You clearly support neo-Imperialism, Neoliberal Austerity and endless wars. But again, having been so massively wrong about Russia v. Ukraine, why should the majority (or any) commenters at this site take your prognostications of Israeli victory seriously?
Also, in case you deign to reply, if the Israelis do “win” & exterminate or drive out over 2 million Palestinians, & kill millions more in the region, do you think the rest of the world will accept that and just go on tolerating “leadership” by the likes of USA, the decaying European imperial powers & the apartheid state of Israel? I don’t expect you to answer, but am very interested in case you would.
Colonial wars succeed until they fall apart. The US cannot sustain the 3 wars posited by Sullivan & Blinken, against Russia & the Palestinians now, & against China next year (announced as early as 2017 by the DoD.) There is an endgame, but it’s not going to be what you imagine.
Altandmain
@Carborundum
Based on the data, it appears most of the missiles intended got through. The goal of Iran was always saturation – some of the missiles are decoys. This is part of the strategy (it’s also a part of any nuclear strategy – many of the “warheads” are decoys and any conventional bombardment, such as the Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, where decoys were extensively used).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se0CIREENys
Many of the missiles fired are decoys – their goal is to force enemy air defense to consume and intercept them.
Israel appears to have resorted to covering up the extent of the damage.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1841548683566821424
It’s also become apparent that the US poured quite a few resources:
https://x.com/imetatronink/status/1841285332706394371
This failure is as much a failure of the US systems as much as it is Israel – note that the SM-3 is the best anti-aircraft missile the US has and is a limited production run system. There are THAAD batteries, US troops, and Navy ships in the area.
Keep in mind that earlier this year, when Iran sent its warning strike a lot of the drones sent were data collection drones. They’ve had months to study the way the US and Israeli air defenses work, then come up with a firing solution to breach it.
—-
There’s another bigger issue. The Iranians likely didn’t use their best missiles. If the Israelis don’t get the message of standing down, future strikes are likely to result in these being used.
Israel has only limited means to retaliate – they need US refueling tanker support for their fighters. They do have Jericho missiles, but those are in small numbers and the danger is if the Israelis use nuclear weapons, then that could easily invite retaliation.