Commenter GrimJim makes the case, using my own writing:
Ian, I am beginning to think that someone working for Trump and Musk must have read your works.
That, or they read the same books you have used as the groundworks for your own beliefs.
Particularly, on how to run a revolution:
https://www.ianwelsh.net/7-rules-for-running-a-real-left-wing-government/
and
https://www.ianwelsh.net/revolution-basics-1-who-cares-what-you-think/
And I am sure there are more. I know you’ve posted about how you have to run a purge first thing.
They are essentially following your playbook.
Media Law: They already own it and are locking it down harder. The Masters of Media are going to kneel to Trump or be punished.
Banking Sector: Already own it and are reformatting it further, and Musk has now gained access to everything that the Feds knew and manage, completely outside of legal channels.
Administrative Class: Purging the government and quickly gaining power over the industrial administration that was not already onboard.
Distribution and Utilities: Same, even showing off that he can screw with state-level works by pouring the water saved for California’s farm on fallow fields.
Reduce Your Vulnerability to the World Trade System: Again, making them kneel or alienating them so much that they will no longer be part of the system.
Be Satisfied with What You Can Grow and Make: That’s what the tariffs are all about. Stupid way to go about it, but that’s what they’ve got. Maybe they figure they will provide required subsidies to important (oligarch-owned) interests once everything is under their control, and masses of Poors have died off in the coming financial cataclysm.
Obey the Laws of Purges: In progress, the worst is yet to come.
“Why should I care what you think?” They don’t. They’re showing that in no uncertain terms and have even stated so in black and white to the courts. We will know that this process is complete if/when SCOTUS somehow decides against them, “The Supreme Court has made their decision; now let them enforce it!”
They are following the formula to a T.
The Republic is almost finished; I think we can stick a fork in it very soon.
I’m less sure, though parts of this are definitely true. Let’s deal with the quibbles: Trump isn’t doing tariff wars for the reason a left wing government under the WTO-Neoliberal-Sanctions regime would. They know that sanctions and trade can be used to destroy their economy. America isn’t in that position. Tariffs and tariff threats are about something else. In some cases, making countries bow, in other cases Trump appears to believe tariffs are free money, and there’s probably also an attempt to re-shore industry. Biden was already Cannibalizing European industry through high energy prices forcing energy sensitive industries to relocate to the US after the NordStream sabotage. Tariffs, for countries with trade surpluses with the US, are intended to have the same effect.
I think a lot of this comes down to something we’ve talked about before. “You go for the King, you’d better not miss.” I warned, repeatedly, that prosecution of Trump was an all-or-nothing matter. You either take him out, completely, or you’re fucked, because you’ve destroyed an elite norm against going after ex-Presidents seriously. (Note that Trump said he’d prosecute Hilary Clinton, but never did.)
Trump’s first actions have included a purge of law enforcement and prosecutors who went after him, the people who tried to help him steal the 2000 election, and his January 6th shock troopers.
What the hell did Democrats expect? That they could prosecute Trump and his people and that if he got back into power he’d shrug it off? How fucking stupid are these people?
If you prosecuted Trump, you had to make it stick and throw him in prison and take every red cent he had. You don’t go after an ex-President who still has a power base without making sure you finish him off.
The bloody fools.
In some respects Trump is just self-protecting. He has to take control of the Justice system so that when he leaves office he’s safe, at least, from any sort of Federal prosecution and with his loyalists in charge of the Justice system, attempts to end-run using the State system can be countered by simple threats. “If you do, we’ll go after your people, and we’re a lot more powerful.)
Trump is taking control of government: the treasury system and all expenditures, and the legal enforcement system. No one will be prosecuted who he doesn’t want prosecuted. No one will get money whom he doesn’t want to get money. Anyone he does want prosecuted will be and anyone who wants to have money, will have money.
Is it a coup? That depends on intention. Does he intend to step down in 2028 and allow free and fair elections? Or does he intend to make sure that elections are only a fig-leaf and he, or more likely given his age, his chosen successor is essentially appointed?
Trump could just intend to punish his immediate enemies and make sure the government does exactly what he wants, or he could intend to turn this into a permanent Republican state, with at least his successor chosen by him.
If he really wants to be safe, well, he needs to appoint his successor.
GrimJim is right about the court system. There are two plays: one is the Supremes wave thru his stuff, but the really dangerous moment would be if he was ruled against and he said “The Supreme Court has made their decision, now let them enforce it!”
Since he’s taking control of the federal enforcement arms, the idea is that no one will obey the courts if Trump disagrees. Their loyalty will be to him.
State governors may try to resist, but Trump can crush them if he so desires.
I admit I never saw Trump as this dangerous, mostly because he’s fundamentally incompetent. But he’s been mishandled by Democrats and the (not so) permanent state. Tulsi Gabbard looks likely to be confirmed, and her job is to do to the intelligence apparatus what is being done to the FBI and DOJ: make it Trump safe. If anyone takes out Trump, it will be the intelligence apparatus. He threatens them, just as JFK did, and they may act. That said, JFK threatened from the left, and intelligence services do love to serve a right wing tyrant. Trump may restrict their foreign games somewhat, but he will give them domestic power they have always wanted.
So, America gets out of this only if Trump either doesn’t really intend a coup and is just being a petty tyrant who wants to go back to the spoils system for government, or if his and Musk’s incompetence brings them down.
We’ll talk more about this as time goes by.
GrimJim
While Trump’s focus is certainly on revenge, his people — the 2025 folks, as others have noted — and the Republicans are going to go all the way with this. He and they have to, because if they don’t, with all they are doing, they all go to jail after they lose power.
It is, as I stated earlier, a Republican coup. MAGA/2025 coup, really, but the rest of the Republicans are happy to be along for the ride, because it guarantees them power, and locks out or completely destroys the Democrats, for as long as US power lasts.
I don’t expect Trump to step down in 2029, as I don’t expect there will be any real elections in 2028. The Democrats being outlawed, and non-Republicans not being on any tickets, the ballots, if there are any, will be like those in other dictatorships — merely performance art. Though at lower local and state levels, and for the House, party members will get a choice of which Republicans to choose from (Senators will go back to being chosen by the state legislatures, as every amendment after the first 10 will be repealed, and most of the first 10 will be pared back severely for anyone not a member of the Party).
Revelo
Trump’s rise is the culmination of the coup that was launched in the 1960’s to roll back the New Deal. Trump and company can do whatever they want as long as it is in line with what traditional Republican donors want. Trump doesn’t need to lock in a successor, he just needs to lock in permanent Republican control of federal government. And he will. USA will revert to what it was in the 1920’s: government will be competent and fair when serving or mediating between oligarchs, but utterly unresponsive to the needs of the poor.
Trump/Musk will be allowed to scam the rubes by using official office to promote crypto and other pump-and-dump rug-pull schemes, but they won’t be allowed to hurt the other oligarchs by tapping the US Treasury directly or getting too many laws passed to benefit themselves at the expense of other oligarchs.
Larry
I think there’s a big chance Trump does in office. He’s never been the healthiest person and he’s pretty damn old. So he’s shooting his shot at what is not exactly clear. I agree he’s trying a coup,but America is a big messy country and there isn’t a strong issue to get uninterested people behind him.
They are obviously trailing Baron as Trump’s successor, but he’s pretty young and hasn’t done much beyond wave at adoring MAGA fans . That to me aligns with him trying to appoint a successor.
His pivot to project 2025 just isn’t popular with a large percentage of the American population. Tariffs and egg price hikes are going to massively erode his popularity
In addition,he seems to be appointing incompetent people to do the job while letting Musk run wild. Tulsi Gabbard left public Google docs of foreign meeting agendas? Yeesh.
I don’t know the chances, but if Musk breaks payments to a huge swath of Trump’s base or he seriously craters the economy, I can see an opening for Congress to turn on him and actually check him and or impeach him. This seems to be Trump’s biggest blind spot,his trust in Elon.
mistah charley, ph.d.
In my opinion the Trump 2.0 difference is the broligarchs. Who needs Brownshirts in the Streets? This is the 21st century and the young men gain complete control of the government apparatus by seizing the computer networks. The billionaires are protecting themselves from any diminishment of their power and wealth that a government of, by, and for the people might enact if people ever woke up.
Sad, in a way, but sadder days loom. Ask any chatbot of your acquaintance what the implications are of taking seriously Catton’s “Overshoot”, Murphy’s “Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet”, and Bendell’s “Deep Adaptation” and “Breaking Together.” May peace be with us all, one way or another, eventually.
GrimJim
Formula for a Coup — Anglo-American Style:
1) Have the Executive capture all fiscal powers reserved for Congress in the Constitution; Congress and SCOTUS remain supine.
2) Capture all media, so that only your message gets out.
3) Destroy the existing international order by alienating all allies and paying off all enemies; establish isolationist policies; all the while, crashing the dollar.
4) Make the oligarchs whole; control any sort of safety net to the necessary cadre middle class; immiserate other middle class and the poor, create a cashless society and destroy independence by complete government control of payment systems (through officially licensed cryptocurrencies).
5) Immiserated masses riot; suspend posse comitatus, suspend civil rights, declare martial law, outlaw all non-Republican political organizations.
6) Make any criminal sentence longer that 20 years “slavery for life.” Use soldiery and slavery to keep remaining free proles in line.
7) Only licensed party members may vote.
Fin.
different clue
Clever magnetic words are not the same as genuine analysis. But sometimes clever magnetic words and phrases can magnetise brains not yet reachable by genuine analysis and might even get them prepared to handle genuine analysis someday maybe.
So I offer the suggestion of calling this ” Elon’s Crypto Coup” or the “Crypto Coup” or the “Crypto Bro Coup” or something like that. ( I have seen a theory that part of Musk’s motivation is to effectively destroy the dollar as a currency and the Dept. of Treasury as a department, and forcibly put the United States onto the Bitcoin Standard or at least the Blockchain Standard at the very least. Elon and the other crypto bros could harvest trillions of dollars by abolishing the dollar itself and making Crypto the “new money”.)
If that seems worthless, people can ignore it.
Joan
This made me think of the poem Shine, Perishing Republic by Robinson Jeffers.