Israel’s air force is destroying every air defense system, missile stockpile and air asset they know about, while the Jihadis whine that they aren’t Israel’s enemy.
By doing so Israel makes sure that it doesn’t matter who’s in charge of Syria: they can hit anything they want at any time and not only can’t Syria defend itself, they can’t even strike back. (Hezbollah can’t defend against air strikes, it can strike back so has some deterrence, but not enough.)
Turkey should just cut bait and directly conquer and annex Syria. Operating thru proxy forces has too many disadvantages and the days when borders were nearly sacrosanct are over. The US won’t like it, but so what? They can’t cut Turkey loose, it’s too important, and they’ve already pissed Russia and Iran off.
someofparts
I don’t understand the total absence of response from Russia or Iran.
I also wonder how the Turks will like sharing a border with the Zionists
Anonymous
Marandi’s interview with Nima covers a lot of this. He has an Iran bias but he brings in important facts that support his conclusions.
https://www.youtube.com/live/uFcf0LUyQkA?si=XhhmaShMeC3kS6Ma
It sounds like Assad put too much faith in the Gulf Arab normalization gestures, significantly weakened the Russian/Iranian presence, allowed the SAA to get completely hollowed out and corrupted, and then non-negotiated with Erdogan as though he held much better cards than he did.
Marandi did a good job of not blaming it all on Assad, who dealt with a crippling sanctions regime and thought he could get help from rich Arabs over the military-only and often very conditional support that he got from Russia and Iran. But in doing so he was repeating the mistake of Gaddafi, there is no compromise with Usrael and you won’t get real help from their vassals. You either submit fully like Jordan and Egypt, or you need to plan on a long siege until Usrael is driven out of West Asia.
I think Russia does bear a lot of responsibility for this fall. They deferred far too much to Erdogan by pushing Syria to agree to the Astana Agreement and letting the Takfiri fester in Idlib. They never have Syria air defense or sufficient military support. They let Americans deprived Syria of their oil and food for years. They allowed the Gulf Arabs crowd out Iranian/Hezbollah influence in Syria. They trusted Erdogan to keep his promises even though he already double-crossed them multiple times. The Russians can go on and on about the crappy SAA all they want, but they allowed the degraded conditions of the SAA and Syria to happen under their watch.
Anonymous
I think that Erdogan is not going to take over all of Syria. Turkey is already broke and can’t afford to administer or secure the area. Sharing a border with Israel will bring too many uncomfortable questions about why he’s not protecting Arabs against Israel. What’s coming out of Russia on Turkey/Syria negotiations suggest that he never intended to let Syria get overrun so quickly and the SAA’s utter collapse caught him in a trap. He likely just wanted to make enough trouble to have the leverage to dump his Syrian refugees and have a free hand against the Kurds holding the richest part of Syria.
Much better for him to have a “free Syria” that he can dump his 3 million Syrian refugees onto and hope that the chaotic situation will let him play the various factions off of each other.
By selling weapons to Ukrainian and gas to Israel, Erdogan already picked a side and no promise of BRICS riches is ever going to convert him into a reliable ally for Russia/China/Iran.
Ian Welsh
I don’t think he will either, but I think he should and that not doing so is going to cause more problems for him than doing so.
someofparts
Alastair Crooke is covering a fair bit of this on Judge Napolitano’s show this morning, and it lines up with what I am learning here. Surprised to hear that Gaddafi made the some of the same mistakes Assad seems to have made. Crooke is making it clear that Assad refused to let Russia train and support his army and rebuffed warnings about impending trouble.
It’s heartbreaking to consider what Russia could have done to prevent this. I guess that is the big question that I have not heard an explanation for as yet – why did Russia take such a hands-off approach?
The last time I heard Lavrov speak, he expressed surprise and mild concern that the Americans still think that the suffering will be confined to Europe if the missiles start flying. Maybe it’s time to go live with my relatives in the local mountains and get out of this city.
Revelo
You didn’t mention USA, which is the only country big enough to project power beyond its borders (other than China, which has no interest in this area). Behavior of Iran and Russia is easy to understand if you introduce USA into the equation: they don’t want to get steam rolled by USA in an area where USA is determined to win and USA has the logistics chain advantages.
My guess is USA will arrange with Israel and Türkiye to create a demilitarized multi ethnic state or group of states along the Mediterranean coast, with USA stationed in Beirut and former Russian naval and air bases in western Syria to keep peace. Central Syria (Damascus, etc) will be left to rot under the radical Islamic militants, in hopes people there will come to hate radical Islam with a passion, with Israel and Türkiye air force allowed to launch punitive attacks on this central Syria region any time the Islamic radicals cause trouble. Palestinians will be exiled from Israel to either the peaceful multi ethnic coast or the radical Islamic stewpot of central Syria.
Kurds is the interesting question. I predict Iran and Russia will eventually back a Kurdish rebellion to create an independent Kurdistan carved from Türkiye, Iraq and eastern Syria. USA under Trump will likely see this rebellion as a potential Afghanistan (for USA, not Russia) and hence wash its hands of the matter. USA has grievances with Türkiye’s failure to be a fully obedient vassal. Allowing a Kurdistan carved from Türkiye would be a way to punish Türkiye for past misbehavior, plus smaller Türkiye will easier to control in the future.
Kurdistan, like Afghanistan, is peripheral to USA interests, so letting Iran and Russia gain a foothold there is no big loss for USA. Western Türkiye is another story. USA would use all available military and economic power to keep that in NATO.
someofparts
Earlier today I was bothered by an interview with Lavrov held by Al Jazeera. I was shocked at how tawdry and dishonorable it was. I was thoroughly offended by the way the moderator spoke to Lavrov.
That puzzle piece just fell into place as word comes out that the gulf monarchs led Assad astray. That televised ambush of Lavrov was those gulf monarchs who toppled Syria giving Russia the finger.
I hope somebody is going to talk about this, somebody who can sort it out. Feels like a hybrid war blitzkreig.
Tallifer
@someofparts, who says “It’s heartbreaking to consider what Russia could have done to prevent this.” Syrians all over the world are rejoicing at their liberation from the murderer and torturer Assad, and this is heartbreaking?
Mark Level
The best comment I heard today was, “ISIS never had an Air Force. Well, it does now,” the Israeli (US Armed) Air Force to commit mass slaughter across Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, etc. I hope Erdogan some day faces the same end that Mussolini did, but I guess if the Turks can make bank off of the extermination of the Palestinians, that may never happen. Still, he betrayed the entire Arab world (& yes, I know the Turks aren’t Arab) & the Muslim world. There is no justice in this still Unipolar world, however, as we all know. (Except the residents of Tallifer Square, of course. But justice to them is the unchecked mass murder of brown people & Asians, Africans, etc.)
Carborundum
Annexing Syria would lead quite directly to an enduring and broadly supported Arab insurgency. Methinks the Turks are wise enough to have little appetite for eating soup with a knife.
Ian Welsh
Iran’s can form a supply to chain to Syria just fine, thanks, and Russia has operated their militarily there before and did just fine, except they didn’t finish the job, which was a mistake that Putin tended to make often.
mago
Everybody’s talking/nobody knows.
Me either.
What I know—qué se yo—is that the human/animal and environmental suffering caused by the disruption and destruction of land, people, cultures and any semblance of stability matters doodly squat to the power players behind these multiple shit shows.
Poul
I wonder if Israel’s land grab in Syria has the purpose of moving around Hezbollah’s defenses? They are just 20-25 km from a border crossing between Lebanon-Syria.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1liqnO9iSvshTLwgPB3q9sJTgfUI&ll=33.29286413856284%2C35.95342221797974&z=11
Chuck Teague
“Turkey should just cut bait…”
That’s what it is now doing. It needs to start fishing.
From the saying: Fish or cut bait.