Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to move Palestinians out of Gaza and that there are about 1.7 to 1.8 million people to move. The pre-war population of Gaza was 2.3 million. About 100,000 Gazans managed to flee to the Sinai in Egypt (presumably a combination of bribes and sympathetic border guards who disagree with Sisi’s “let them die” policy.
So we’re looking at 400,000 to 500,000 deaths if Trumps figures are accurate. Yes, I know, Trump: but he’s been briefed and why use those numbers?
That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.
Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.
A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.
The idea that the death toll was around 50K was always ludicrous, given the constant bombing, lack of food, destruction of hospitals, deliberate murder of doctors and nurses, disease and lack of water.
I would assume the death rate was accelerating and if the genocide had gone on would have continued to accelerate: starvation, disease and lack of water tend to work that way.
Meanwhile, having stopped most of the bombing, Trump wants the US to take over Gaza and rebuild it as a resort, as best I can tell. His son in law, Jared Kushner, in February of 2024 said:
“Gaza’s waterfront property could be valuable… It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but I think from #Israel‘s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”
This requires either Jordan or Egypt to take the Palestinians, and neither of them want them, since they’re destabilizing and will also strain budgets. America can offer money, but America’s promises have become increasingly… erratic of late. Egypt, of course, already receives a ton of money from America in exchange for peace with Israel, but Palestinians being pushed into Egypt would violate the treaty which started those payments.
Bear in mind that Hamas is an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood, Sisi’s mortal enemies whom he couped in order to become “President.”
And the Palestinians may not all go voluntarily, so military force will be needed, presumably American boots on the ground.
This plan is very obviously ethnic cleansing, which is evil. It is, however, the lesser evil compared to Biden’s “keep them locked up and bomb and starve them all to death”, which would have presumably continued if Harris had one. Hard to say how this will play out, Trump might well let Israel go back to full on genocide, but so far it appears that Trump was the “lesser evil” at least as far as Gaza is concerned.
Egypt needs to be talking to the Chinese about aid, stat and figure out what they can offer the Chinese. Though a chance to poke a finger in Trump’s eye is likely appealing to Xi right about now. Trump has no respect for treaty obligations and will definitely threaten Egypt’s funding to force an acquiescence.
Meanwhile Turkey, Egypt and Iran all need to get off their asses and get nukes.
different clue
Unless Trump means to let a few hundred thousand Palestinians stay there while moving out 1.7 to 1.8 million people. Perhaps that is what Trump means and what Trump thinks.
Either way, essentially no Palestinians will leave willingly. When faced with that, what will Trump do or try greenlighting Israel to do?
I didn’t keep close track of Trump decades ago when he was building his Casinos in Atlantic City. I gather he tried and mostly succeeded pushing out a few hundred inconvenient people who were “in the way” of ” beautiful wonderful magnificent” project.
I feel confident that Trump would try evicting 1.7 or 1.8 million Palestinians from Gaza so that his son in law could make serious money Rivierafying that beautiful waterfront. And he thinks he can do it without emotion, just like those couple hundred Atlantic Citians.
If he tried ordering the U S Army to do it, through his chosen ( and Senate-ratified) creature Hegseth, would the U S Army say ” Sir Yes Sir” or would the U S Army say ” Okay, its Seven-Days-In-May time”? Donald “the Joker” Trump might well push it that far just to see what happens.
StewartM
Trump didn’t “stop the bombing”. Bibi had agreed to what Biden had always proposed, but waited until Trump was president and gave the credit to Trump, as he knew he had a friendly ear in the US so that the ethnic cleansing could continue. Geez.
j
Looks to me more like the genocide by starvation is being continued in Gaza, while the violence is being ramped up on West Bank. Ceasefire sure is one way to sell it.
Tc
Seeing as foreign aid from US is so unreliable, what’s to stop China from stepping in as Egypt’s sugar daddy? I suspect that is Trump’s game, as with breaking up NATO, also see todays increased rumors that some factions in whitehouse want to concede Taiwan to China in some sort of deal. Of course there would have to be all sorts kabuki before Egypt aligns with China, but I think US will be totally isolated by end of Trump 2.0.
Funny that nobody even dares suggest the Palestinians be relocated in Israel during bullshit rebuilding. Or, you could kick out all the illegal settlers in west bank and Im sure there would be plenty of housing for the Gazans. The starting position seems to be Israel gets off scott free. Doesnt even occur to anybody. Not that that’s a surprise. In Nov 2023 it was also unthinkable that the genocidal drooling dotard not run or even face a primary until 8 months later when the DD drooled all over the stage at the debates.