The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Open Thread

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11 Comments

  1. Didn’t watch it, but it seems the “debate” was quite a rumble, with many interruptions.

    Why not have red/green microphones? When it’s your turn to talk, your green light is on, and your microphone works. When it’s your turn to listen, it’s red, and your microphone off.

    This is as simple as, say, running public education campaigns about the need to get vitamin D blood levels tested, and what raising those levels to at least a standard “normal” range implies about getting, and recovering, from covid19. This would have saved lots of lives, more so black ones, which are supposed to matter – right?

    Modern life demands domain experts for charting a course through complex issues, but simple problems with simple answers that never get resolved, well, that’s not very inspiring.

  2. New covid-19 infection are rising in Europe (though not in Sweden), but that rise is not reflected in the death counts. That’s partly because treatments are better; but it seems mostly to be due to the fact that people are fighting off the effects of infection, better. See “Something ‘very strange’ is occurring amid Europe’s second wave of infections” on youtube.

    Purists are refusing to call this herd immunity, because nationwide the anti-body levels don’t rise to levels believed to enable herd immunity, or “we just don’t know” what that level should be. However, I can’t subscribe to the Laura Ingraham framing of the virus as “getting tired” or “burning out”, either. Viruses don’t get tired, muscle fibers do. I find the idea of a virus “getting tired” unscientific, and even laughable.

    ===============

    I fell asleep while listening to Chris Martenson in “Fauci Places Politics Over Science (and your health)”, however I know he addresses Fauci’s questioning by Rand Paul, where Paul tried get an explanation for the non-achieved “herd immunity”, vs. the observed crash of the covid death numbers.

  3. Joan

    @metamars, one data point for you. In my corner of Europe, the older and at-risk people are still social distancing. Schools are open, but there’s universal masks on public transit, along with other restrictions. Infections drastically increased when the schools opened, but the number of deaths really hasn’t much. My guess is there’s a ton of asymptomatic young people walking around, and the at-risk people who can afford to isolate are doing so.

    I think our numbers will continue to rise as temperatures drop and people aren’t hanging out outside in the parks anymore. The government will likely reintroduce restrictions on the extent to which people can gather indoors with members not from their household.

  4. Nakedcapitalism posted 2 articles on covid, today. One is “Corralling the Facts on Herd Immunity”. There is a section on Sweden, which I judge as high functioning propaganda.

    A commenter names “rusti” writes,

    “In fact, as a result of COVID-19, Sweden has recorded its highest death toll since a famine swept the country 150 years ago. And cases are on the rise.

    It continues to be bizarre to live here and see outsiders using us as a punching bag for everyone to project their frustration and political squabbles onto.

    A much more interesting thing to highlight would be to ask what the heck has been happening here since late June? Almost no one wears masks, schools for kids below 16 have literally never been closed, gyms have never been closed. People of all ages are staring to observe basic social distancing norms even less than they did before but our per-capita 7-day rolling average of new cases is lower than Denmark, the UK and France by my calculation. The intensive care wards in my region (the second largest outside of Stockholm) have no COVID-19 patients for the first time since March.

    My suspicion is that it’s primarily driven by people going on vacation after midsummer, driving the Rt value down. But the comparison with Denmark is still surprising since they have some masking requirements and people literally strip off their masks when they cross the border on the train. The one thing that’s eminently clear to me is that virtually no one is asking this question in an intellectually honest way. Rand Paul is a disingenuous moron and there’s a lot of virtue signalers on the left promoting hygiene theater.”

    rusti links to a web page with Swedish statistics, graphed: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

    The top right graph must be new infections, per day. The bottom right graph shows deaths/day. I’m going to assume the middle right graph is intensive care hospitalizations from covid/day.

    It’d be interesting to know if Sweden has changed their early stage and prophylactic protocols, significantly. Are they now running public awareness campaigns about vitamin D status? Have they been giving calcifediol as “standard of care” treatment, at least to patients with poor vitamin D status? If so, for how long?

    I recently heard a video of a Syrian immigrant Swede complain about the relatively high death rates from covid amongst Sudanese and Arab Swedes. Have those communities educated their own members (outside of government programs) to elevate their vitamin D status?

    I’ve been shadow-banned at nakedcapitalism (apparently, their tender ears can’t stand hearing about how wrong some of their “climate change” claims are), so won’t even attempt to ask rusti these questions. But these are the sort of questions that, IMO, citizens from various countries should be constantly, and cooperatively, aggregating. I certainly can’t depend on the US government to track such no-brainer type information; and the medical mafia isn’t going to help, either.

  5. @Joan.

    What European country are you in? Have you noticed any vitamin D awareness program being introduced? Also, does your home country actually make transparent their decision making process (plus inputs), for deciding on lockdowns, social distancing, etc.? (I have posted, at this blog, about complaints about the lack of transparency of the process in England. I assume lack of transparency is the rule, even when the bureaucratic decisions amongst different countries are very different).

  6. The Commission on Presidential Debates will make rule changes, following the debacle last night.

    Making the candidates go barefoot, and electrifying a glass floor, might work wonders. The moderation team throws the appropriate switch, delivering a high voltage shock, when bad behavior is observed. But that is probably extreme. 🙂

    There are claims of the moderator not being fair. One way to counteract that is to allow the {cough}{cough} debaters to submit questions directed to their opponent. This seems like another no brainer, though I frankly just thought of it today.

  7. The Commission on Presidential Debates will make rule changes, following the debacle last night.

    Making the candidates go barefoot, and electrifying a glass floor, might work wonders. The moderation team throws the appropriate switch, delivering a high voltage shock, when bad behavior is observed. But that is probably extreme. 🙂

    There are claims of the moderator not being fair. One way to counteract that is to allow the {cough}{cough} debaters to submit questions directed to their opponent. This seems like another no brainer, though I frankly just thought of it today.

  8. Hugh

    Couple of notes about the debate last night. Trump acted like a 13 year old with attitude. This is surprisingly unsurprising. Trump, especially under pressure (he’s behind) has to act this way. His narcissism is a personality disorder. He doesn’t have a personality disorder. He is his disorder. That is he has as much control over it as a puppet does over the strings which move him. So Trump acted the way he did because, given his disorder, there was no other way he could act.

    All the pundit rationalizing and strategizing, Trump could have done this or should have done that, really miss that Trump acts the way he must act. Sure, it was embarrassing to the whole country and completely undercuts his MAGA argument, but he has been doing this for 4 years.

    As for changing debate rules, like cutting off mikes, the debate commission can do this but then Trump can refuse to debate and engage in what he really wants, a monologue.

  9. BlizzardOfOzzz

    His narcissism is a personality disorder. He doesn’t have a personality disorder. He is his disorder. That is he has as much control over it as a puppet does over the strings which move him. So Trump acted the way he did because, given his disorder, there was no other way he could act.

    Whoa, profound. Does this depth of psychological insight come with being a communist, or is it acquired independently?

  10. Hugh

    There is a reason that a group of psychiatrists wrote a book warning of Trump’s pathology. It wasn’t hard. Clinically, the pathology is the pathology. Having a personality disorder means something. It is different from having a mood disorder or neuro-degenerative one, or something else. Personality disorders are notorious for being difficult to treat or even untreatable. But once the diagnosis is made, how that person is likely to act in a given situation, usually inappropriately, is not much of a stretch.

  11. Willy

    If conditions were different, somebody with a disorder exactly like Trumps, even Mr. Trump himself, would proclaim to be communist. Or Nazi. Or transy libertarian. Whatever works to get power.

    Some people seem to have great difficulty in understanding that any human being can have self-interest drives which override everything that’s considered “normal”.

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