Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 16, 2025

By Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

Why Resistance Alone Will Fail 

Les Leopold, February 14, 2025

 

Musk’s political economy

[X-Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 02-10-2025]

 

[X-Twitter, Feb 9, 2025]

If he found actual fraud like he claims, where is the law enforcement? Where are the investigators, lawsuits, charges? Isn’t it a little odd that they claim to have found trillions of dollars worth of fraud but nobody is being charged and even the “crime scene” is not taken over by the feds to avoid tampering with the evidence? Unfortunately this seems like a political power play where no crimes have been found but they make enough noise that the public will accept the destruction of the government infrastructure, assuming it’s all rotten.

 

Speed Up the Breakdown: The future of the government depends on how far the DOGE dynamo spins. 

Quinn Slobodian, February 15, 2025 [The New York Review]

For the last month, the US opinion-making class has stared agog as Elon Musk and his minions have stormed the engine room of the federal government…. Buffaloed onlookers have groped for precedent….

None of the analogies are very persuasive. This is because we are witnessing something new: the convergence of three strains of politics that have never simultaneously been this proximate to power. Those projects come from different but related places: the Wall Street–Silicon Valley nexus of distressed debt and startup culture; anti–New Deal conservative think tanks; and the extremely online world of anarchocapitalism and right-wing accelerationism. Within the new administration, each strain is striving to realize its desired outcome. The first wants a sleek state that narrowly seeks to maximize returns on investment; the second a shackled state unable to promote social justice; and the third, most dramatically, a shattered state that cedes governing authority to competing projects of decentralized private rule. We are watching how well they can collaborate to reinforce one another. The future condition of the government—and by extension the country—depends on how far the dynamo spins….

Musk’s hirelings by these lights are less latter-day squadristi than radicalized management consultants. Instead of brickbats and lugers, they wield red pens to mark layoffs and offload inventory. We can take Musk at his word when he said in 2021 that the government is a corporation, but a special one that has a monopoly on violence and cannot go bankrupt. If, as he has claimed, private actors are better at allocating resources than public ones, it stands to reason that a state should be shorn of redundant staff and services….

The second way to understand the DOGEstorm is not through Musk but rather through the more systematic approach of Russell Vought at the Office of Management and Budget and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau…. Vought has said that America is in the “late stages of a complete Marxist takeover” that needs to be reversed aggressively by putting government employees “in trauma,” treating them as “villains,” and sending “power away from Washington and back to America’s families, faith communities, local governments, and states.” Trans rights are a particular trigger: Vought has denounced the “transgender sewage that’s being pumped into our schools and institutions.”….

The third program that underpins the present moment is often described as a project of right-wing accelerationism. That term is usually associated with Curtis Yarvin…. Right-wing accelerationists imagine existing sovereignty shattering into what Yarvin, writing under the pen name Mencius Moldbug, calls a “patchwork” of private entities, ideally governed by what one might call technomonarchies. Existing autocratic polities like Dubai serve as rough prototypes for how nations could be dismantled into “a global spiderweb of tens, even hundreds, of thousands of sovereign and independent mini-countries, each governed by its own joint-stock corporation without regard to the residents’ opinions.”….

…For sympathetic observers, however, the goings-on in Washington are inspiring the same exhilaration that the anarchocapitalist economist Murray Rothbard felt when he watched the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It was, he said, “a particularly wonderful thing to see unfolding before our very eyes, the death of a state.”

Monopoly Round-Up: On Ending the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Matt Stoller [BIGBIG, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 02-10-2025]

Last week, Elon Musk and the new Trump Office of Management and Budget chief Russ Vought stopped all work at the commission, including enforcement of rules, litigation, as well as supervision and examination activity. They are planning to shutter the headquarters and presumably will be laying off most of the staff. By shuttering the CFPB, Trump is not just going back to a pre-financial crisis status quo, but to something actually weaker than that. There is essentially no longer any Federal enforcement of consumer protection rules for financial products….

We can now expect rampant fraud and cheating in banking and fintech, not just a scam here or there, but regular losses of life savings by people who followed the rules, illegal foreclosures, random seizures of the working capital of small businesses, abuse by debt collectors, and routine deception by even respected financial firms.

Elon Musk’s stated goal with X is to create an ‘everything app,’ which you would use to communicate, engage with social media, pay for things, hail cabs, shop, and so forth. All the big tech monopolists want to be the ‘everything app.’ The CFPB was proposing to treat these companies with payment systems as, well, payment systems, and subject them to the same supervisory treatment that banks have. Now that’s out the window, so big tech firms have a competitive advantage over banks….

[D]estroying the bureau strikes me as a long term strategic error for the banking sector and big tech. The banks were already losing to Silicon Valley, and now they are at a regulatory disadvantage to boot. More fundamentally, this shutdown breaks a basic deal. I worked in the House during the great financial crisis, and the arrangement was that the banks would accept some mild oversight via the CFPB, and in return they would get a multi-trillion dollar bailout and make excessive profits. I didn’t like that deal and encouraged the member I worked for to vote against it, but it was forced on liberals by Barack Obama. (This deal was an intra-Democratic Party arrangement; conservative Republicans were in thrall to the banks and wanted nothing but foreclosures and bailouts. And they still do.)

It was an egregiously terrible choice, one that liberals couldn’t acknowledge because then they’d have to admit a whole lot of uncomfortable truths, notably that Wall Street is a malevolent force, that Obama was a malevolent leader, and that the Dodd-Frank reform bill passed in the wake of the crisis, rather than ending bailouts, was a joke. But now they will be faced with the bracing truth, that there is no good faith negotiations with dominant firms demanding coercive governing power. Either Silicon Valley bankers rule America, or the public does. But there’s no middle ground.

 

Capture of U.S. Critical Infrastructure by Neoreactionaries (pdf)

anonymous [Naked Capitalism, February-5-2025]

…This memo outlines four alarming developments that transcend partisanship.  I. II. III. IV.

  1. Musk-aligned operatives have seized control of the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), purging career civil servants and installing loyalists with ties to Musk’s private ventures.
  2. DOGE has deployed unvetted hires—many under 25 years old—who now wield de facto control over sensitive government functions without security clearances. These individuals, drawn from Musk’s orbit and Silicon Valley’s neo-reactionary (NRx) network, operate without legal oversight or accountability.
  3. DOGE has gained read-write access over Treasury pipes and federal payment systems, granting Musk direct influence over the financial infrastructure of the U.S. government. This unprecedented control over money flows creates a national security risk and a personal power lever for Musk.
  4. The congressionally mandated divestment of TikTok has been delayed, with reported Chinese interest in Musk as a buyer. If successful, Musk would control not just X (formerly Twitter) but also the largest platform shaping youth political discourse—further concentrating his influence over public opinion.

Rather than operating as an ally of the Trump administration, Musk has hijacked its ambitions for his own purposes. His rapid takeover of federal infrastructure mirrors the broader ambitions of the neoreactionary (NRx) movement—a small group of Silicon Valley elites who reject democracy and seek to install a “CEO Monarch” to rule by technological and financial dominance. This network includes Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, David Sacks, and Curtis Yarvin, among others. Once considered fringe, purveyors of this ideology have now been embedded into the core of government operations….

 

How Trump’s Firings “Paralyze” the NLRB

[Mother Jones, February 14, 2025]

The shake-up is particularly alarming because—by leaving only two members on the five-member Board—the Trump administration has eliminated a quorum, effectively preventing the NLRB from ruling on cases at the federal level.

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated posts.

In The New Cold War, One Side Will Be Weaker and Less Prosperous

This is the sort of thing the US used to be able to do, and Britain back in its day:

China has built over 30,000 basic-level smart factories as part of a nationwide push to accelerate industrial digitalization and intelligent upgrading, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

The initiative, under the smart factory gradient cultivation action, has also seen the creation of 1,200 advanced-level and 230 excellence-level smart factories…

…The 230 excellence-level factories, distributed across all 31 provincial regions in China and covering over 80 percent of manufacturing sectors, have carried out nearly 2,000 advanced scenarios, including smart warehousing, AI-powered quality inspections, and digital research and development, said MIIT.

On average, these factories are 28.4 percent shorter in product development cycles, 22.3 percent higher in production efficiency, 50.2 percent lower in defect rates and 20.4 percent lower in carbon emissions, said the ministry.

Meanwhile, in South and Central America (a similar map could be done for Africa and chunks of Asia):

So, here’s the thing. Under the threat of Trump’s tariffs, Canada and the EU have been offering America to get tougher on China. “China’s the real enemy!” they scream.

Problem is, in the new Cold War, China’s going to be the stronger and more prosperous side. Russia, and most of Asia, Africa and South America are going to align with it. It will soon be in the “US after WWII” position of having more industry than everyone else combined, and it’s already leading in 80% of technological fields. It won’t be long before that’s 90% and I wouldn’t be surprised if in 15 years it’s damn near 100%.

Choosing to align with America is choosing to align with a declining Empire. It’s like laying your bet on Britain in 1918.

I don’t think this is a done deal for all of Europe. The old order is dying, new parties are challenging the old center-right and center-left parties and while the current leadership are lapdogs, the future leadership in many countries will not be. All China has to do is offer to not de-industrialize Europe, or all European countries have to do is cut a deal along those lines.

The sooner one makes the deal, the sooner one defects to the winning side, the better the deal will be.

It is my judgment that it won’t be long before the two best countries to live in are China and Russia. They are rising, and rising fast and the West is in decline. America’s strategy of cannibalizing its allies industries is stupid, because its allies industries are old legacy industries which are mostly already surpassed by China, and those that aren’t, like Pharma, soon will be.

There’s no reason to be loyal to America. Trump’s made it clear that the United States has no loyalty to anyone else, and it’s offering a really shitty deal. Russia doesn’t want to conquer Europe. They conquered half of it once before and it didn’t work out, they just want security.

This won’t happen this year, that’s clear, but smart nations will make the switch as soon as possible. I suspect the EU is likely to break up, so some European countries will change sides, and some won’t. But if it is done as a group of nations, even if not the whole bunch, the deal will be better.

The Cold War is already in its late early stages. I was writing about it as early as 2017, and it’s gathering steam. This is the new world. Choose your side, but for most countries, choose you must and wise statesmen choose the winning side.

 

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Trump’s Actions Are Opportunities

And lo, there was much gnashing of teeth and rending of hair.

Trump’s human garbage, of course. A bully, probably a rapist, suffering from some sort of mental disability, incoherent and mean.

And those are his good points.

Trump’s destroying the remains of America’s empire. He’s probably accelerating America’s decline, though there’s a possibility he might slow certain aspects of it, if others (like the EU) let him.

But most of what Trump is doing is creating opportunity. Let’s take the cuts to science funding: they’re going to leave a lot of scientists out of work.

That means there are a lot of scientists that other countries could easily, trivially even, scoop up. If they have the sense of a gnat, which most of them don’t. University and research cuts have been the rage in many countries (UK, I’m looking at you) because of delusional austerity policies, but central banks like the ECB can print hundreds of billions, even trillions of dollars, it would be simple enough to print a few hundred million to set up a bunch of research positions.

Anyone who wants to can do this: Europe, Canada, Australia, various Asian countries. Scientists want to science, and if you offer them a credible opportunity to do so, they’ll emigrate to your country and work for you. Same thing with engineers, great philosophers, etc, etc…

So as Trump lays waste, glean the corn which lies in his wake.

Likewise Trump’s attack on his allies opens up possibilities which were not politically viable before. Leaving NATO, for example. Putting on your own tariffs, which is illegal, basically, but since Trump has just broken about every trade treaty the US is signatory to, why not? Give subsidies, also usually illegal, but who cares? Ignore trade rulings against you which favor the US, why not, they don’t obey those rulings. Run full fledged industrial policy, because while it’s still technically illegal, it’s now politically viable.

Stretch a little. Instead of, as some European symps are suggesting, offering Trump more anti-China policies, go to China and cut a deal with them instead: tariff America and cut a trade deal with China which allows you to build some industry, or gets your branch plants and so on.

Stretch a lot. Tell Russia you want the gas to FLOW and offer to help rebuild the pipelines. Send out your navy to patrol and make sure there are more accidents. This is your chance to save Europe’s remaining industry from being slurped down by America.

Trump has changed the world. He’s done, doing and will do things that were unthinkable to previous Presidents. But that frees you, he’s broken the Western consensus, and done so in a way which makes it clear he doesn’t care what harm he does to America’s allies/vassals/satraps.

So break free! The real chains are in  your minds, politicians. You’ve spent generations doing thing one way, but now you don’t have to. Break the chains of your mind, and then break the chains of your nations.

Freedom awaits, along with the responsibility which comes from it. Fail to accept freedom and responsibility and America and Trump will decide what your country becomes.

If that’s what you want, if you want to avoid responsibility, be assured you’ll get what you deserve.

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Gaza Ceasefire Deal In Danger Of Collapse

So, Hamas decided to not release any further hostages until Israel meets its end of the phase I deal.

The response from Trump?

“If all (not only those agreed in the ceasefire deal to be released in multiple phases) prisoners are not freed by noon Saturday, the ceasefire will be revoked, and hell will be unleashed on Hamas.”

Trump has also made clear his plan to take over Gaza:

“I will owe Gaza and, as far as us rebuilding it, we may give it to other states in the Middle East to build parts of it. We are determined to own it, to take it. We’re going to make it a very good place for future development. The Palestinians will have no right of return to Gaza under my plan to take it over.”

And he has told both Jordan and Egypt that if they refuse to take the Palestinians, he will cut off all aid to their countries, crashing their economies.

Hamas has really only two choices: agree to ethnic cleansing in hopes of avoiding further genocide, or withhold the hostages to maintain some level of leverage, since the hostages are clearly important to Trump, if not Israel. Trump, of course, though cunning and a bully, is and always has been rather dull and undisciplined. As a bully, he can sometimes be backed down by those willing and able to stand up to him.

Israel hasn’t met its side of the deal. Until it does, Hamas can’t meet its side of the deal or it will, like Hezbollah has, lose all effective leverage.

I find it hard to predict Trump. I expect even Trump finds it hard to predict Trump. We’ll see what happens going forward, but a return to the genocide seems more than possible.

Trump proved that the President can control Israel if he wants to, and that he can end the genocide essentially at will, but all the people whispering in his year are Zionists, with no one to speak for Palestinians who is close to him.

That doesn’t bode well.

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It’s The End of the American Era. Period.

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Commenting on all the stupid (like Musk’s antics) is tiring sometimes.

I was trying to figure out what to write today. There are about a dozen possible posts, all of which amount to “Trump or Musk are flinging poo at the wall.”

So let’s forget all the stupid little details no one will care about in even ten years and cut to the chase.

America is in irreversible decline. If you think otherwise, you are living in a fantasy world. China will even take the lead in Pharma away from the US, probably no later than 2030. The US military can’t even keep the shipping lanes open and Carrier groups no longer have a full support group.

Trump is not going to make America Great Again. Even when Trump and Musk do the right thing, they do it the wrong way. There’s a lot of administrative bloat at universities and hospitals, and reducing that is a priority. But simply cutting the administrative grants overnight leaves no time for adjustment and will smash institutions to flinders. This might not matter if it was 1995 or even 2005 and the uS was still in the lead, but right now the US can’t afford the time to do things the stupid way.

Trump is breaking the Constitution. He doesn’t have the right to decide not to distribute money entailed by Congress unless Congress gave him the right. He doesn’t have the right to ignore judges who tell him not to do illegal and unconstitutional things. If Trump’s changes go thru, there will only be one real branch of government, the Presidency.

During The Decline America is Dangerous. America’s era of preeminence is cooked, there’s no question, but decline takes some time. The US is still insanely powerful and that makes it dangerous to anyone weaker than it within reasonable reach. This means, of course, that there’s almost no one in the world who shouldn’t, for purely pragmatic reasons, want the US to go down faster. The sooner it falls, the safer everyone else will be. Well, unless you’re Taiwan, but that’s foreordained already, it’s just a question of when.

America is Canada’s Enemy. No other nation is threatening Canada’s very existence, after all. America has never, ever, protected Canada from anything but itself and the only real threat to Canada has always been America. Trudeau said Trump is serious about annexing Canada, and Trump has confirmed it.

America is Europe’s Enemy. It has been at least since Biden’s presidency, where the deliberate policy was to cut off cheap energy and encourage European (aka. German) industry to relocate to America.

America is all its “allies” Enemy. America wants to cannibalize its allies industry and bring it to America. It doesn’t care what happens to its friends, with the exception of Israel, because of Israel’s massive influence in America, much of it certainly based on blackmail. Every American ally now needs to cut ties and either make a group alliance without the US, or make its obeisance to Beijing and try and cut the most favorable deal it can. Early movers will get better deals.

Europe Needs To Grow Up and Kick Out America. Europe’s weaker than it’s been in generations, and far weaker than it was in 2005 when I first suggested this path, but it’s still got enough industry, science and engineers to reindustrialize and build its own army. Cut a deal with Russia and China, kick the Americans out and stop whining about how you can’t defend yourselves without America. That’s a choice: you still have the ability to create your own arms industry and you have plenty of unemployed youngsters you could put in said military.

China is the next leading Great Power and it could be the next superpower if it wants it. I’d argue it already is the leading great power much of the world. Certainly it’s more important in most of Asia and Africa than America is. It will take the lead in, essentially, every scientific area. It is already the most dominant manufacturing power and that will only decline when it realizes that it, like the US after WWII needs to send more of its industry overseas or there won’t be anyone worth selling to. or any allies worth having.

This is the Era Endgame. This is what I’ve been writing about and towards for over two decades. This is it, this is America in irreversible decline, losing its constitutional government and descending into a non-military from of Caesarism. Maybe Americans will avoid the fate of rule by Imperial Presidents, it’s at least theoretically possible. For everyone but Americans and maybe Mexico and Canada the best outcome would be America breaking up. But no one outside of America should be doing anything but preparing for America’s fall, protecting themselves from America, and positioning themselves for the new era where China is dominant.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – February 09, 2025

By Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

Franklin D. Roosevelt, State of the Union Message to Congress, January 11, 1944​​​​​​​

[TW: In this speech, FDR proposed an economic bill of rights]

…a noisy minority maintains an uproar of demands for special favors for special groups. There are pests who swarm through the lobbies of the Congress and the cocktail bars of Washington, representing these special groups as opposed to the basic interests of the Nation as a whole. They have come to look upon the war primarily as a chance to make profits for themselves at the expense of their neighbors- profits in money or in terms of political or social preferment….

One of the great American industrialists of our day—a man who has rendered yeoman service to his country in this crisis-recently emphasized the grave dangers of “rightist reaction” in this Nation. All clear-thinking businessmen share his concern. Indeed, if such reaction should develop—if history were to repeat itself and we were to return to the so-called “normalcy” of the 1920’s—then it is certain that even though we shall have conquered our enemies on the battlefields abroad, we shall have yielded to the spirit of Fascism here at home….

 

The Business Community Is Extraordinarily Stupid. Is a dictatorship good for business?

Hamilton Nolan, February 05, 2025 [How Things Work]

…People often criticize business as greedy. Yes. It is greedy, as water is wet. Understanding corporations as anything other than soulless robots seeking profit is a mistake. This is why it is wise to tightly regulate them and unwise to allow them to do whatever they want. In a related sense, people often say, “Hey, wouldn’t it be in the self-interest of business to pay more taxes and subject themselves to more regulations and and generally push for more progressive values because it would help to create the stable and happy society outlined above, which is good for business in the long run?” Well, sure, but this question misunderstands the fact that the political actions of the business lobby assume that they will always be pushing against some force that is pushing back, and that the progressive forces they are pushing against will be enough to protect the basic structure of democratic society, even as businesses try to undermine it just enough to put money in their own pockets. Businesses want to pick up pennies in front of the steamroller, but they don’t want the steamroller to run them over.

Well fuckers, you have miscalculated. You rats.

The business lobby’s many years of selfish conduct and support for deleterious public policies have produced so much inequality and undermined our democratic institutions so successfully that we are now watching a strongman seize control of our government. Smooth move, you fucks. You grasping roaches. Your efforts have gotten us here. All the Koch Brother/ Federalist Society types who invested so much money in capturing the courts for the right wing have gotten us here. All the nice Chamber of Commerce types who supported the Republican Party even as it radicalized further and further because they wanted those tax cuts have gotten us here….

 

Shock Doctrine USA

Thomas Neuburger, February 07, 2025 [God’s Spies]

What we’re seeing is not a new autocracy, but the old coup, the one called “neoliberalism,” the one we’ve been watching since Reagan: the complete dismantlement of government-by-the-people till only the rich have rights. It’s not the removal of the big FDR state, but its slow, then faster replacement by an equally muscular state responsive to wealth….

….Carl Biejer highlights this point in a recent paid-only piece, “The shock doctrine comes to America.”

Beijer’s point: This isn’t a new autocracy he’s creating, but the same old tried-and-true shocking. The war’s not being waged by Trump, but by “capital” writ large….

“This is what neoliberals have done over and over again to dismantle the state in other countries.…

“The neoliberals are taking an axe to the government rather than a scalpel, and this means that the left could very well see all kinds of programs related to US empire and the security state undergo some significant defunding. But we should not have any illusions about what is driving this: neoliberal austerity”

 

The Logic of Destruction, and how to resist it

Timothy Snyder, Feb 02, 2025

What is a country? The way its people govern themselves. America exists because its people elect those who make and execute laws. The assumption of a democracy is that individuals have dignity and rights that they realize and protect by acting together.

The people who now dominate the executive branch of the government deny all of this, and are acting, quite deliberately, to destroy the nation. For them, only a few people, the very wealthy with a certain worldview, have rights, and the first among these is to dominate.

For them, there is no such thing as an America, or Americans, or democracy, or citizens, and they act accordingly. Now that the oligarchs and their clients are inside the federal government, they are moving, illegally and unconstitutionally, to take over its institutions.

The parts of the government that work to implement laws have been maligned for decades. Americans have been told that the people who provide them with services are conspirators within a “deep state.” We have been instructed that the billionaires are the heroes.

 

Constitutional crisis

Elon Musk Wants to Get Operational Control of the Treasury’s Payment System. This Could Not Possibly Be More Dangerous

Nathan Tankus, February 4, 2025 [Notes on the Crisis]

I try to keep emotion out of this newsletter. I have always tried to write Notes on the Crises in a calm, detached tone so that the information I highlight shines through. However, I must be honest with readers: I’m absolutely terrified…. There is nothing more important on the entire planet than getting Elon Musk and DOGE out of the Bureau of the Fiscal Service and allowing career civil service employees to run the Treasury’s internal payments system without capricious and self-serving interference from billionaires and their allies….

Musk and his cronies are clearly aiming to redesign the payments system to serve their agenda. The most chilling sentence is this one from the Wall Street Journal:

“It couldn’t be determined what DOGE representatives intended to do with their access to the payment system. Musk and his team think the payment system should be overseen by political appointees selected by President Trump, the people said.”

This is not the attitude of people who are trying to simply technocratically make the payment system more “efficient.” They have a very clear and specific agenda, which involves unilaterally cutting spending, particularly spending they perceive to be going to their ideological foes. Is “Wokeness,” the “Green New Deal,” “Marxism,” and “Gender Ideology” going to be the new definition of an “improper payment”? ….

The data the Treasury collects could not possibly be more sensitive. We are talking about hundreds of millions of Social Security numbers, as well as a raft of other specific identifying information….

This system collects between “10,000 – 99,999” social security numbers along with identifying “business” information, including sensitive financial records and “business” bank accounts. Does anyone think that if Musk could get his hands on this information, whether directly or indirectly, he would not use it to go after, say, nonprofits he dislikes? At 3:14am Sunday, Musk pledged to shut down “illegal payments” to Global Refuge, a faith-based organization that exists to provide “safety and support to refugees, asylum seekers, and immigrants from across the world.” Musk messing with ASAP is no hypothetical at all….

In some ways, as enormously alarming at this all is, it’s somehow not the biggest concern that I have been thinking about. For the past 36 hours (writing these words at Midnight on Saturday) my mind has returned over and over to the idea that they have been asking for “source code information” to the Treasury’s internal payments system….

COBOL is the lingua franca of mission critical legacy IT in use since the 1960s and too many systems have been too important to abandon it. “Modernization” has instead been built around making COBOL function somewhere besides a mainframe. The “modernization” of the Treasury’s IT payments infrastructure seems to have constituted a combination of rooting out Assembly code and a basically completed transition of “mainframe” COBOL to an “internally-developed RM COBOL” running on Linux servers. RM COBOL is an update on mainframe COBOL “designed for optimum performance and wide portability across a broad diversity of computers and operating systems.” Most notably, the Treasury’s transition to RM COBOL seems to have involved harmonizing more than 30 different COBOL systems which had evolved separately. It was 30 “dialects” they managed to get to speak one standardized language.

Does Elon Musk understand any of this? Does he have any grasp of the scale and complexity he is trying to reach into and exercise “influence”? Currently the most urgent and profound danger is not what he intends to make this sprawling apparatus do. The most immediate danger is what might break in the process of trying to get this apparatus to do what he wants.

At every step of modernizing this system they have run systems concurrently to make sure the “new” functions as well as the old. Redundant systems are only phased out over long time periods after they have enough data on system functioning to feel confident in the “modernized” infrastructure. This is expensive, time consuming and absolutely necessary to make sure this system functions 100% of the time. Elon Musk, however, has never shown respect or understanding of the concept of a mission critical IT system. All he sees is “inefficiency” because he doesn’t understand that there are some things in this world that need to function no matter what and you spend the additional money to make sure it runs, including when it’s being updated….

Why Claiming Gaza’ Death Toll Was In The Ten Thousands Mattered

For most of the Gaza “war” official civilian casualty numbers were in the mid tens of thousands. They rose quickly at first, then they rose slowly, which was odd, because as time went by there were fewer and fewer hospitals, less food, less clean water, less medicine and less of Gaza that wasn’t rubble. There was every reason to expect the death toll to accelerate.

It now seems like the death toll is around four hundred thousand, perhaps higher, out of an initial population of 2.2 to 2.3 million.

The official numbers were offered by Hamas and they were obviously wrong, on the face of it. I don’t entirely know why, but there are some likely possibilities:

  • The longer the war went on the less capacity there was to count the dead;
  • Lots of dead were buried under rubble or otherwise hard to count;
  • The Ministry wanted to give the most conservative number, only what they could actually prove, rather than what they knew was actually the case. Similar to how most climate change forecasts are wrong to the downside. They figured this would protect them from charges over inflating the numbers or being alarmist.
  • Hamas wanted lower numbers because, after all, it looks bad when they can’t protect Palestinians, essentially, at all.
  • Israel went along with it because while they knew damn well that they were committing genocide, the lower the number the easier their propaganda job was, since for some odd reason a lot of non-Israelis think genocide is bad, even if you do it to “subhumans.”

It’s the last two which are most important. There’s a big difference between the official death toll of 46,600 and a death toll of between 300,000 and half a million. Tens of thousands could indicate depraved indifference to Palestinian civilian deaths rather than deliberate genocide, if you were inclined to believe that already. Hundreds of thousands makes it much, much harder to deny.

This is why I railed against those who uncritically repeated the official death number, even if they were anti-genocide. It’s why the Lancet publishing higher estimates mattered. It’s why I wrote that I figured the actual death toll was closer to half a million.

It’s also a good idea, generally, to not believe obvious bullshit.

Gaza was a genocide and the scale of the genocide matters. Trump now wants to ethnically cleanse those who remain, and who knows, he might let the Israelis restart the genocide if the ethnic cleansing plans fail.

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