Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

The End of Empire: The Anger, Glee and Despair Tango

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On March 14, 2025

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“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”

This statement is—wrong-ish.

For decades various people have been predicting what is happening now: the end of the American empire, the late Imperial wars, the despair and poverty of late-imperial rentier capitalism, and the rise of China.

Indeed a lot of people (your host included) were screaming about this 30 years ago. I read my first book on the way that America was turning to Gilded Age plus inequality in 1986. Everyone who wasn’t stupid, bought or ideologically captured could see what neoliberalism would lead to. From the late 90s we yelled about sending the West’s industry to the West, but hey, it was the “End of History” and capitalism and democracy had won and it didn’t matter where industry was because “comparative advantage” was, and still is, completely misunderstood, as were the constituents of state power.

So—it’s all happening now, along with massive wildfires from climate change and it seems like for decades nothing happened, but really, it was all happening: without deliberate policy choices, these weeks wouldn’t be possible.

The key to making accurate predictions is simply asking “what must happen if the current course continues, and will the course continue.” In 2009, when Obama decided he’d rather have a couple mansions and Hollywood friends than be the next FDR, and massively increase fracking to top it off, it became clear that the course would continue and all this became inevitable. Realistically, the rise of China was locked in when they were allowed to join the WTO and climate change was locked in when Reagan tore down the solar panels on the White House roof.

So it’s been a very easy time to make accurate long term predictions, much as Keynes, upon seeing the post-WWI peace deal was able to predict WWII and the end of the British Empire. It still had to play out, but everyone with sense knew it was inevitable.

Most of the time I’m sanguine about all this, but every once in a while despair and anger at all the harm which was so easily predicted and which could have been avoided wells up. Other times it’s glee: the fall of the American Empire will occasion a lot of horrid events, but unless you’re American or perhaps European, it’s hard to be sad, especially as we witness genocide in both Gaza and Syria, and witness huge homeless camps.

I was sent this video to watch, and it’s so typical of America these days:

Kind of hard to feel sorrow at the end of an Empire which treats even its own citizens this way. Meanwhile China deliberately crashed its own over-inflated housing market when the CCP noticed that too many people couldn’t afford their own homes any more, and is moving to mostly state-built housing. Tell me more about how awful “Communism” is. Nor are they shipping Israel arms and supporting genocide. (No, the Ughuirs are not being genocided, though they are discriminated against.)

If you’re feeling similar emotions, well, that’s understandable and no big deal. Just remember, the world is always and has always been shit for a lot of people, all that’s changing is who, and in a couple decades, how many. But there’s still delicious food, beautiful scenery, and love is just as sweet. All the good still exists, and your sorrow and pain does not help other people, and hurts you.

Live, enjoy, and perhaps allow yourself some happiness at the good amidst all the evil.

 

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The End Of The American Brain Drain

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On March 13, 2025

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This admission of abject surrender and powerlessness from Colombia University is something I appreciate. Some actual honesty:

America’s in the middle of another of spasmodic crackdown on the free speech like McCarythism or the Red Scare. In this case so that Israel can commit genocide because a controlling number of American elites are scared of Israel, in many cases most likely because Israel has proof they’re baby-fuckers. (Can you say “Epstein”?)

The slightly less depraved ones are just scared of AIPAC funding their opponents. Others genuinely love the idea of mass murder, and probably have screenshots of dead Palestinians and Israeli soldiers wearing Palestinian women’s underwear saved for times when their palms get sweaty and they started breathing fast.

But, let’s bring this back to the more usual themes of this blog. There’s another interesting news story: it seems there’s a bill proposed to ban all Chinese students from studying in America.

Sweeeeet.

You know one of the main reasons why the US took the tech lead so decisively before and after World War II? A massive influx of European scientists and intelligentista, many Jewish, but plenty not. The smartest people in the world disproportionately wanted to live in America.

This continued for generations: you’d be some other nation, you’d train up smart people, educate them, and the ungrateful fucks would go to the US to finish their education, then stay in America. Endlessly frustrating for everyone but America.

So, of course, current American elites, scratching under their armpits, hooting about foreigners, grunting out “Uhmerika, grate” have decided to add to their broad attack on research, brains, intelligence, universities, teachers and books by banning even more smart people coming from other countries.

They will glare at you and tell you it’s “so them Chinese fellers can’t learn our secrets.”

Weird thing, last survey I saw had the Chinese leading in 89% of tech fields, up from 80% and there are more top Chinese AI researchers working in America than American AI researchers.

So, if you go to America you can’t say “mass murder is bad”, and no one can protect you from the government’s thugs if you do, but, fortunately for some, soon you won’t be able to study in the US, so hey, it’ll be a moot point if you’re lucky enough to be Chinese.

American universities are only massively dependent on foreign students and Americans, scared of catastrophic, life long student loan debt increasingly don’t want to to go to university, so I’m sure this won’t hurt America at all. Who needs scientists, engineers, professors, intellectuals, and all them fancy folks who think they’re better than MAGA chuds? I hear some of them academic types say evil worlds like sexism and racism and nasty phrases like settler colonialism, CIS, justice, fairness, genocide and so on.

Yup. Ban ’em or make ’em terrified. Don’t give academics any freedom, they think bad thoughts about how killing brown people might be wrong or that women might be worth something when they aren’t cooking or spreading their legs. They might say “abortion isn’t always evil” or suggest that God isn’t real or something.

Anyway, I’m pleased to notice that America is 110% (as an American manager or coach would say) dedicated to driving itself into the dirt and ensuring China buries it there.

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Trump Is the Best President of My Life Unless You’re American

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On March 12, 2025

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The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

The Course of Empire by Thomas Cole

Every day, I become more grateful for the election of Donald Trump. All praise. Millions and millions of people have worked to destroy the American empire, and all of them failed. Donald is succeeding, speeding the process by about a decade, I’d guess.

Likewise, I and many others have hated the neoliberal trade order for decades — since the late 80s, in my case. It was designed to destroy countries’ sovereignty, making it impossible to truly regulate investors, to run industrial policy, or even, in rich nations, to keep wages up. As a Canadian, ever since the FTA Canadian manufacturing has proceeded on a slow death march, till instead of selling the US more good than the US sells us, as was historically been the norm, we buy more goods from the US than vice-versa. (The trade surplus is due to energy.)

Meanwhile, Trump is essentially forcing the Europeans to take charge of their own destiny and stop doing what America says. This should have happened decades ago, and EU elites failure to man-up has cost Europe’s countries dearly. It’s quite likely neither NATO nor the EU itself will survive; both excellent outcomes. NATO should have been disbanded when the USSR fell. American troops may leave Europe, or at least there should be a further draw-down — also excellent. As for the EU, it has been an engine of stagnation and de-industrialization, especially since the introduction of the Euro.

The end of the American Empire, and the end of the “no industrial policy, no sovereignty” free trade order, and possibly the end of NATO and the American occupation of Europe.

Oh, the process will suck, and it will hurt. But for the first time since the US imposed its terrible neoliberal trade order on the world, there is at least a chance for most countries to be able to properly manage their own economic affairs.

Unfortunately for Americans, Trump is doing this in the stupidest and most harmful way possible — for America. It needs to be done, sure, but simultaneously pissing off almost every trade partner in the world and speeding up the end of the dollar’s hegemony in such a chaotic way is not going to go well for America or Americans. As the primary beneficiaries of the previous order (other than the Chinese, who suckered the Americans using their greed), the end of the order is going to be ugly, and because America now has no friends except maybe the lickspittle Brits, there’s going to be little cushion for the America’s fall to real economic status.

So, all hail Trump. He’s an idiot, a monster and is doing plenty of terrible things. But he’s ending the American century sooner and more decisively than anyone could really have expected. There’s still the risk of war, to be sure. But if we can avoid that, well, Trump will go down as a very important President and his reign will have made a better world possible.

Sometimes what the world needs is a colossal fuckup in charge to bring the end of an order.

 

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Musk’s Empire Is Looking Even More Shaky

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On March 11, 2025

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So, we’ve talked before about problems with Tesla. Musk’s competitors are, to put it simply, producing better cars which cost less, especially but not only, the Chinese like BYD. Meanwhile, Musk’s politics, like denying climate change and throwing a Nazi salute, while tying himself to Trump just as Trump is pissing off almost every country whose consumers buy Tesla vehicles, has made customers a lot less interested in buying Tesla. He’s trashing his own brand with the people who supported it most.

Musk’s riches are based primarily on Tesla, but he also has SpaceX, which currently has the lowest cost space lift and pretty much guaranteed business from the US government. But a large part of Musk’s SpaceX income comes from Starlink. It looks like SpaceX made about 13 billion in 2024, and of that Starlink provided 8.2 billion. However, in terms of profit, Starlink seems to have provided only about a third of SpaceX’s three billion profits.

That said, Starlink is still in the fairly early stages, with high capital costs, and the revenue numbers indicate it’s a big deal for SpaceX and Musk.

Then we see this:

But here’s the thing: There is an onrushing competitor to Starlink — a Chinese one, Qianfan. They’re far behind Starlink right now, but as they scale, they seem likely to wind up larger than Starlink, and the price for access may be $50 versus $120 for Starlink, though it’s unclear what the terminals themselves will cost.

Musk seems determined to lose Starlink customers, too. He accused oligarch and billionaire Carlos Slim of being tied to Mexican cartels, for example, and Slim immediately cancelled his deal with Starlink, and indicated he’d be pursuing the Chinese alternative.

So, in two to three years, it seems likely that Starlink will not be the only game in town, and the other game will be cheaper. At which point, all Elon Musk has is his political moat; some countries may make it illegal to choose Qianfan.

But… that political moat is looking very leaky outside of the United States since Musk has tied himself to Trump, and Trump has pissed off almost all of Europe, including serious American allies like Poland (see above), Canada, Mexico, and even Japan. China may look like the lesser evil — after all, they rarely tariff anyone unless the tariffs are retaliatory, and they aren’t threatening to annex any countries.

That means the only remaining moat Musk has is his space launch, which is genuinely cheaper. But a cursory search showed me eight Chinese private space-lift companies. They’re all behind SpaceX right now, but then, a few years ago, so were China’s EV manufacturers, and Chinese smarphone producers were behind Apple and Samsung.

Anyway, a company with 13 billion annual revenue isn’t why Musk is so rich. It’s mostly Tesla. Canada, for example, put a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. China has now counter-tariffed, hitting Canadian agriculture hard. It might not seem worth keeping those tariffs going. Europe is similar. No one likes Musk right now other than MAGA, and they prefer gas-guzzlers.

I can’t remember ever seeing someone as rich self-destruct the way Musk is. He’s mishandled Tesla for years, he’s lost his first-mover advantage, he’s destroying his brand value, and pissing off both consumers and governments in almost every country he sells cars or internet in.

So if you don’t like Musk, well, get ready to enjoy a rich harvest of schadenfreude.

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Romania Bans Georgescu From Running Permanently

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On March 10, 2025

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I earlier wrote that the West’s elites were too tentative in their approach to lawfare, using Trump (where I’m right) and Georgescu as examples. With Goergescu they had initially just annulled an election, but let him run again.

Seems I was wrong about Georgescu. Using charges of Russian influence after “finding” weapons and cash and whatnot in his network. I’m—skeptical, at best, this looks like a stitch up to me, but I can’t rule out that the evidence isn’t planted.

So Romania has now banned Georgescu from running at all.

But here’s the thing, take a look at the polling:

The runaway leader. By far. So they’ve banned the most popular choice from running.

It’s hard to say this isn’t anti-democratic. If I were Romanian I’d feel fully justified in starting or joining a revolution in response and as a foreigner, I rather hope that’s what happens, because if it doesn’t, then this sort of election interference will spread in the West. “Vote for anyone you want, as long as the candidate is someone current incumbent can stand.” It’s not hard to imagine this being used against the left as well as the right: a populist left-winger like Corbyn, for example. (Remember there were threats that if Corbyn won the military would launch a coup.) Melenchon’s left wing might face the same fate if it it wins the Presidential election.

So far I haven’t seen the EU condemn this, and I rather assume it’s done with Brussel’s approval. A bad omen for change in Europe. And if change can’t be peaceful, at some point it will be violent.

The neoliberals have ruled for too long, and are too full of themselves to believe that anyone else even has a right to rule. The old post-war order disagreed with Thatcher and Reagan and their heirs, and had ruled for about the same amount of time, but they allowed the transfer of power to a new ideology.

Democracy requires this: if you can’t choose something radically different at the ballot box, then you don’t really have elections.

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Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – March 09, 2025

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On March 9, 2025

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By Tony Wikrent

 

Men DOGEbags at Work

Understanding Trump’s War on Research Funding & The Future 

[Pandemic Accountability Project, via Naked Capitalism 03-05-2025]

…The gutting of federal funding for scientific & medical research completely destroys America’s position as a global science leader – sending a clear signal to the best and brightest in other countries who now no longer have a reason to immigrate here. China is being handed the rest of the century on a silver platter, along with the rest of BRICS, whilst America regresses into an irrelevant, backwater shithole that is the world’s laughingstock….

As the Obama-Biden Administration wasted the 2010s foolishly letting themselves be bamboozled by Silicon Valley, who flagrantly broke the laws governing industries such as taxis and hospitality by deciding that having an app and calling yourself a tech company meant you could do whatever you want, the economy would be fundamentally reshaped in a siege on what remained of labor protections. The result was a significant transfer of power to a few select billionaires over the American economy….

The National Institute of Health’s (NIH) process to disperse funding, while imperfect, empowered scientists to pursue research that may lead to significant medical and scientific breakthroughs – free from corporate meddling. The justification for the slashing of federal research funding that Vinay Prasad is currently cheerleading is that the American taxpayer shouldn’t be paying for “useless” studies, and that only wealthy interests, such as corporations or tech billionaires, should be able to dictate to scientists what they research. It is in fact much closer towards a regression towards feudalism, forcing our best and brightest to instead placate the whims of the wealthy nobles whose patronage becomes essential as a source of research funding….

What we are witnessing is a significant transfer of power, humiliating hardworking scientists and forcing them to grovel before the ownership class, so they can relish in exploiting America’s brightest minds for profit. Scientists, understand this: Your corporate boss will own the intellectual property of your research, and will be the only one to profit from it – not you – leaving you out to dry with nothing but crumbs. This is the vision of “economic growth” that Trump, Elon, and their billionaire friends share for America. Of course, the current business mindset of short-term infinite growth at all costs (line go up) is completely incompatible with how scientific development actually functions. As Reddit user “throwawayainteasy” explains:

“Some of the most important scientific breakthroughs are things that we won’t really understand the value of until 10-20 years from now or more…No for-profit company would fund the first 20 steps in that process, because there’s no clear path to profitability until the end. That’s why governments across the world are the primary funders of pure research.”

We Found Elon Musk’s DOGE Email Address and We’re Fighting to Reveal His Messages

Shawn Musgrave, March 6 2025 [The Intercept]

FOIA works best when requests are as specific as possible. The U.S. government sometimes plays games with journalists, researchers, and other watchdogs, rejecting asks it considers too vague — such as requests for correspondence that fail to include an official’s government email address.

That’s why The Intercept is publishing Musk’s government email address.

According to a source, Musk has been assigned the email address erm71@who.eop.gov. The email address reflects his attachment to the White House Office, the Executive Office of the President, and, apparently, Musk’s full initials plus his birth year, 1971. This differs from the standard format for EOP emails, which typically include the staffer’s full first and last name.

The Intercept has already filed more than a dozen FOIA requests for Musk’s emails using this information.

[TW: I sent two questions directly to Musk: “Why do you want to kill us?” And, “How many injunctions and court rulings are needed until you understand you are violating the law? Either you respect the rule of law or you don’t. Calling for the impeachment of judges who make rulings you don’t like only solidifies the conclusion you are an authoritarian bully intent on destroying the rule of law in the United States.” ]

Leaked List Shows DOGE Is Lawyering Up

Shawn Musgrave, March 5 2025 [The Intercept]

A list of DOGE staffers reviewed by The Intercept shows Elon Musk’s quasi-agency has brought in at least four more attorneys.

Did Trump just rein Elon in? 

[Vox, via Naked Capitalism 03-07-2025]

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Open Thread

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On March 7, 2025

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Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. No vax/anti-vax.

Understanding America’s Betrayal Of Ukraine

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On March 6, 2025

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Let’s start with this: Ukraine is losing the war, and the longer it goes on the worse the peace deal will be. I absolutely agree with Trump that there needs to be a peace deal, and soon.

But the rhetoric coming out of the Trump administration and its proxies suggests that America owes Ukraine nothing, and that indeed, Ukraine owes America for all its support. This sounds reasonable, on the face of it, but only if you don’t know any history.

Let’s start with the 2014 Maidan protests which overthrew the Ukrainian government. They were a color revolution, heavily supported by the Americans and Europeans. Say what you will about Yanukovych, he was the elected President. There’s decent evidence that the sniper massacre was done by Maidan itself (see this academic study), and, post-coup, Ukraine was essentially run by Victoria Nuland.

The Maidan coup came in response to Yanukovych’s decision to accept Russia’s aid package instead of the West’s. This was the correct decision: Russia offered more money and aid with less strings, while the Western aid came with IMF restructuring. If you know anything about the IMF you know that their restructuring is always painful, and it doesn’t improve host nations economies. It does, however, increase inequality, and opens up the economy so foreigners can buy in.

Back in 2008 there was a brief Georgian/Russian war. Georgia had regions which were ethnically Russian, and they were de-facto independent, and recognized as such by Russia. When Georgia invaded South Ossetia, Russia counter-invaded. At the time, I wrote an article for FireDogLake predicting the next Russian war would be over Crimea and Sevastopol. Sevastopol is Russia’s main Black Sea port, and a Russian “hero city,” — much beloved. Ukraine leased it to Russia, and if Ukraine ever moved to kick the Russians out I predicted the Russians would go to war rather than comply.

Put simply, Sevastopol was and is a key Russia interest.

After the coup, Ukraine threatened to end the Russian lease. Russia invaded Crimea, and took it over. (Don’t cry too much, most Crimeans, except the Tatars, would much rather be Russian). Meanwhile, the East of Ukraine went into revolt, because they are mostly, actually Russian and had supported the ousted President. A small war was fought over that. The Russians intervened, routed the Ukrainians, and they set up a peace deal called the Minsk accord, which basically gave Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomy.

Notice that without the coup, which was backed by the US, there would have been no 2014 war between Ukraine and Russia, no loss of Crimea, or and no semi-independence for the far East of Ukraine.

The coup was anti-democratic, overthrowing a legitimately elected government which was accepting the best deal offered. (And folks, I’ve studied IMF deals. They are always bad. Always.)

Of course, having lost a war and territory, Ukraine now becomes very anti-Russia, at least in the West of the country. Understandable. Then there’s a HUGE military buildup. And, although Minsk was sold as the end of the matter, it was negotiated in bad faith by the West. This has been confirmed:

The West didn’t want peace, it wanted a chance to build up the Ukrainian military for the next round.

That next round came after Ukraine spent a lot of time shelling the hell out of Luhansk and Donetsk; this was a violation of the Minsk agreement. Then Ukraine and NATO started talking about Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia had made clear was a red line.

Now here’s the thing: Absent the US backed Maidan coup, there would be no Ukrainian war. It wouldn’t have happened. Additionally, absent the huge build up of the Ukranian military, again US- and EU-backed, there would have been no war, because Ukraine wouldn’t have risked it.

The US used Ukraine in a proxy war, after an anti-democratic coup. The West genuinely believed that sanctions would break Russia and allow Ukraine to win the war, and hoped that the loss would cause a break-up of Russia. Unfortunately for them, China needed Russia as an ally, and kept the Russian economy running, and it is Europe that was damaged by the sanctions, while Russia’s economy is, overall, booming.

Back near the start of the war, a peace offer was on the table, far more generous than anything Ukraine can expect now. Boris Johnson, Britain’s Prime Minister, with US support, told Zelensky not to take it — NATO would back him to the hilt, and Zelensky could win the war.

Fast forward: Ukraine is losing the war. On a map, Russian gains over the last year aren’t all that large, but the Ukrainian army is running out of manpower, and is being pushed past its line of prepared defenses. When the Ukrainian army breaks, and it will, the Russians will start making huge advances very quickly.

Now, Trump comes in, and acts as if America had nothing to do with all this and, further, acts like Ukraine has taken advantage of American generosity instead of Ukraine being an American proxy, which has been devastated after an American coup pushed it into a war with a much stronger country and America and the UK told Ukraine not to take a better peace deal.

Trump’s attempting to get Ukrainian minerals in “repayment” for America pushing Ukraine into a war it couldn’t win, and is not even offering security guarantees in exchange. I loathe Zelensky, but he’s right to reject this one-sided “deal.”

This is despicable. This is honorless. The very least Ukraine deserves from America is a sincere effort to cut, for Ukraine, the best peace deal they can get.

Now Zelensky is delusional. Threats to fight on and a refusal to negotiate are insane. Russia’s BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is to just continue the war, win it, and impose an unconditional surrender. Think Japan and Germany at the end of World War II.

But American negotiation seems to be about making the best deal for America, not for Ukraine.

My suggestion would be that Zelensky ask the Chinese to host negotiations. Yes, they’re Russia’s ally, BUT they’ve always supported a peace deal, and more importantly, they’re the only nation which really does have leverage over Russia; without China, Russia cannot survive economically. And, unlike America, China has said it is willing to put peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia is NOT going to target Chinese troops.

Further, if China promises to rebuild Ukraine, it will do so, and do so quickly and competently. The Chinese are the best in the world at building roads, railways, ports, power plants, and all other types of infrastructure.

Ukraine’s government was effectively controlled by the West, and pushed into a war it couldn’t win. They need to end their Western alliance, and cut the best deal they can get. That means, especially, not letting Trump negotiate, because he’s not negotiating for them, but for America.

It’s a bad hand, an awful one. But it’s the hand Ukraine has to play.

As for American claims that Ukraine used them, rather the other way around, they are without merit and beyond dishonorable.

Let’s give Kissinger the final word:

“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

 

You get what you pay for. This blog is free to read, but not to produce. If you enjoy the content, donate or subscribe.

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