Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

2024 Fundraising Update

We’ve raised something over $5,400 since the fundraiser started, meaning we’ve reached the first goal of $4K and our $2,500 out from $7,000 tier, at which point I’ll do 3 reviews of important books. At 10K, which is $4,600 out, I’ll write an article on:

…the fundamental process which keeps society together, how it fails and renews and under what conditions it fails to renew.

And at $13,000, I’ll write:

an article on the weaknesses of North American style police, and how a determined and ruthless opponent could take advantage of those weaknesses to rip them a new one.

I really appreciate everyone who’s given. Donations and subscriptions from readers which have kept this blog alive and running. Times are hard, since Covid each fundraiser has become more difficult, because people are hurting, in particular from inflation.

I think this is a place where we tell the truth as we know it and where we try to make educated guesses about what the future holds. Every year it seems there are fewer places like this left.

If you’re in trouble financially, if food or shelter or medicine is an issue, please don’t give.

But if you can afford it, and you like my writing, I’d appreciate it if you did.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE TO OUR 2024 FUNDRAISER

A Rare Balanced Update On The Russo-Ukrainian War

As one commenter noted, “Never thought I’d live in a world where I would be hyped for the Austrian army dropping a new video.”

You can watch it here, as I do not know how to embed it in Word Press.

By the way, if you want to understand Putin, you read Dostoevsky, Notes from the Underground, not Mein Kampf to suggest otherwise is an abdication of being intelligent.

Nota bene: Crime and Punishment is the best novel ever written. Just saying.

Nota bene duo: the Ukrainian drone attack at 5:05 on the Russian soldiers is terrifying.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 20 2024

by Tony Wikrent

 

Strategic Political Economy

MASTER PLAN, Ep 10: The Master Planners’ Heist Of The Century

[The Lever, October 15, 2024]

By 2010, the master planners had firmly gained the upper hand. Their victory in Citizens United allowed corporations to spend unlimited amounts of money to influence elections, giving business interests unprecedented power in politics. But the master planners’ onslaught wasn’t quite over. In this episode, we show how they embarked on a bold heist to crack the vault protecting democracy itself. It’s the heist story of the century, in three acts.

First, the schemers needed to take out the security cameras: The disclosure laws that in some instances still required the names of big-money donors to be reported. In a perverse act of mental gymnastics, petrochemical tycoon Charles Koch’s Americans for Prosperity sought to eliminate these laws by weaponizing a 1950s ruling that had protected civil rights activists in the Jim Crow South.

In the second part of the heist, the schemers went after the last remaining cops on the beat. They manufactured a scandal at the IRS, the country’s last remaining campaign finance regulators, over the targeting of so-called “social welfare” nonprofits — many of which were fronts for dark money groups.

Finally, the master planners needed a getaway plan, a way to prevent prosecutors from coming after them as they made off with the loot. They found their opportunity with the appointments of Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

As high-profile bribery and corruption convictions fell, the message was clear: The system is rigged, and political officials are ready to play for pay.

Key findings referenced in this episode include:

  • See the evidence from the case in which a Virginia jury convicted former Gov. Bob McDonnell and his wife Maureen for accepting $175,000 in gifts and loans from a businessman — including a $10,000 white leather coat, shopping sprees, use of a Ferrari, and a $6,500 Rolex.
  • In the 2016 case McDonnell v. United States, a wave of amicus briefs flooded the Supreme Court attacking the legality of the anti-bribery laws used to convict the former Virginia governor. Chief Justice John Roberts cited these briefs as evidence of “bipartisanship,” but they mostly came from influential figures in the money and politics sphere, including corporate lobbyists and Federalist Society members like John Ashcroft and Ted Olson. Other notable supporters filing briefs included Christian Right attorney Jay Sekulow and Citizens United mastermind James Bopp Jr. Even Justice Lewis F. Powell’s former corporate law firm joined in, representing a coalition of elite business owners.
  • Indicted New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ lawyers recently filed their first motion to dismiss the bribery and fraud charges lodged against him, heavily relying on Supreme Court rulings that have weakened anti-corruption laws. The motion points to overturned convictions in corruption cases discussed in this episode, including those of McDonnell, former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling, small-town mayor James Snyder, and New York power broker Sheldon Silver.
  • Read law professor Zephyr Teachout’s article on how both liberal and conservative justices on the Supreme Court have expressed skepticism about anti-corruption law, narrowing the definition of corruption and limiting public power.

Germany Honors Biden For Destroying Nordstream & Their Economy

I cannot believe this is happening:

Germany honored U.S. President Joe Biden for his contribution to trans-Atlantic relations on Friday, ahead of his meetings with European allies on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.

TIME Magazine: Germany Honors Biden for His Contribution to Trans-Atlantic Ties as the U.S. Election Looms

Germany Honors Biden for His Contribution to Trans-Atlantic Ties as the U.S. Election Looms

The sheer delight the pathetic “Traffic Light” coalition government takes in abasing itself before the US hegemon is pornographic in its shameless indecency. Especially the same week that the Danes reported this:

Just days before the Nord Stream gas pipeline attack in September 2022, warships belonging to the U.S. Navy were on the scene and ordered nearby officials to keep away.

That is according to John Anker Nielsen, who is harbour master at Christiansø, the easternmost part of Denmark in the Baltic Sea, northeast of the island of Bornholm and close to the sites of the Nord Stream explosions.

Map showing the route of Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the southern Baltic Sea and location of the leaks. AWZ=Exclusive Economic Zone
Map: AFP / Nadine EHRENBERG, adapted

Nielsen late last month told a reporter at Politiken, a major Danish daily, that he went out with a rescue team four or five days before the blast to check on nearby ships with switched-off radios, suspecting there might have been an accident, only to find U.S. warships, whose staff ordered the team to turn back immediately.

Never forget Biden threatened Nordstream:

Biden: If Russia invades uh that means tanks or troops crossing the uh the border of Ukraine again then uh there will be uh we there will be no longer a Nordstream 2. We will bring an end to it.
Reporter: What? How would you how will you do that exactly since the project and control of the project is within Germany’s control?

Biden: We will. I promise you we’ll be able to do it.

and Nuland did it too. This video is still up on the State Department’s official Facebook page because they’re proud of it:

“If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”

And Never forget what Nuland said at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on January 26, 2023:

“I am, and I think the administration is, very gratified to know that Nord Stream 2 is now, as you [Ted Cruz] like to say, a hunk of metal at the bottom of the sea.”

Blinken celebrated it as an economic opportunity:

“…ultimately this is also a tremendous opportunity.  It’s a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponization of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.  That’s very significant and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come…”

And then there was this from Anne “It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory” Applebaum’s husband who’s a Polish official:

Former Polish FM thanks US for damaging Nord Stream pipeline

The consequences of this have been the deindustrialization of Germany:

German industry increasingly struggles to compete on the world stage. Particularly hard hit are its mighty chemical and heavy industry sectors, which are now in rapid decline. One of the main drivers is policies that have made energy costs skyrocket, and there Germany serves as a canary in the coal mine for other leading industrial nations.

It’s kind of grimly amusing that Forbes’ use of the euphemism “policies that have made energy costs skyrocket” rather than say “self-defeating sanctions on cheap Russian gas combined with the biggest act of industrial sabotage in modern history” and it also doesn’t mention that it’s been America’s policies that have deindustrialized Germany.

It’s also so humiliating as an American that the neo-conservative cabal of psychopathic nitwits has been in sole control of US foreign policy since the Clinton administration and now they have a lock on US corporate media as well.

The above mentioned Anne Applebaum provided the perfect example of their delusion and idiocy with her September, 2022 prediction that Ukrainian victories in Kharkov would bring down Putin.

But that brings me back to Germany’s pathetic ruling coalition. This is how well they’ve done in recent state elections:

In the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right AfD received more than double as many votes as the three parties which make up the federal coalition government — the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), environmentalist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — combined. These parties’ results are each in the single digits. The Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states even failed to meet the 5% threshold to be represented in the state parliaments.

And on the left:

newly established populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), managed to score votes in the two-digit range in their very first election.

The German people are chomping at the bit to vote out the gang of traitors who have allowed the US to annihilate their economy.

Although in fairness, they also gave the last US President who walloped the Germany economy the same award:

“Biden received the highest class of Germany’s Order of Merit, which was also bestowed on former U.S. President George H.W. Bush for his support of German reunification.”

Kind of fitting that the era of American unipolarity is framed this way. Bush at the beginning. Biden at the end. The Germans footing the bill for American foreign policy.

 

 

 

Open Thread

Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.

Europe Is Turning Anti-Immigrant

Politico has a long article on it, and it’s hilarious. A border wall longer than Trump and Biden’s. “Return centers” in other countries, because they’re too gutless to say deportation, and so on. Complaining about Russia and Belarus’s immigration warfare (letting refugees thru Russia to get to Europe. Including, er, Afghan refugees.)

Let’s cut thru the bullshit.

The EU is in economic decline and can no longer afford refugees they can’t monetize.

Europe is also responsible for much of the refugee crisis, having enabled the destruction of Afghanistan and Iraq (Poland, one biggest criers, was part of the “coalition of the willing.”) Europe, with some honorable exceptions like Ireland and Spain, is behind the Israelis, who are about to institute a flood of Lebanese refugees. Europe, thru the world bank, IMF and various post-colonial policies has worked hard to keep third world nations in poverty, increasing refugee flows.

They have helped destroy or impoverish entire nations, then whine about how migrants come to them begging for safety or a decent life.

In humanitarian terms, and international law terms, what the EU is doing is wrong, but the simple truth is that they can’t afford immigration any more, and that mass immigration has exacerbated the right wing turn. Not that it had to, but if you have large numbers of immigrants into a bad economy, who are competing for jobs and housing and social welfare with the desperate, they will naturally blame the immigrants instead of purging the incompetent and corrupt elites who are managing the economy with eye only to benefit themselves.


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The Ukraine war has made this particularly bad, not just because of all the Ukrainian migrants, but because it has increased the de-industrialization of Europe’s industrial heart, Germany.

This is, again, a self-inflicted wound. If Europe had kept the Minsk accords, or, more long term, treated Russia and its security concerns seriously, there wouldn’t have been a war. If Europe did not insist on being subordinate to America, none of this would have happened.

But Euro elites can’t imagine taking actual responsibility for their own countries and telling the US to bugger off, then following something other than neoliberal politics and economic policies.

Reducing immigration makes some sense, even if it’s inhumane, but it’s very much a “treat the symptoms, not the problems” situation.

Europe’s decline will continue until they decide to take responsibility for themselves and to overthrow an ideology which prioritizes the rich and financial games over the entire population and the real economy.

Immigration is meaningless in comparison.

Harris Is Making The Same Mistake Clinton Did When She Lost To Trump

Harris was asked what she would have done differently from Biden, and she answered:

Nothing comes to mind.

Trump won against Clinton in large part because of the stories they told:

Trump’s was. “I’m going to make America great again.”

Clinton’s was. “America is already great.”

So people who wanted change voted for Trump, if they could stomach him.

It’s that simple.

Economists will go on and on about how great the Biden economy is, but they’re basing that on statistics no one believes, nor that they should believe, like the inflation numbers, which are complete bullshit.

There’s a point at which people will believe their lying eyes, especially when it comes to grocery prices.


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Kamala’s just another mediocre member of the elite. The system worked for her, so she figures it’s basically a good system. She doesn’t have the empathy or intellectual honesty to see that it isn’t good for many, many other people and that she needs some of those people’s support.

This was her election to lose, just as Clinton should have won in 2016. All she had to do was show some genuine concern, some empathy and offer some significant change, even if she was lying.  (This was Obama and Bill Clinton’s strategy, and it worked well. Bill was very empathic as he screwed over the working class and poor.)

She couldn’t even manage that. Polls are now basically dead-even, and battleground states are in the wind. Generally Democrats, because their votes are concentrated in urban and suburban areas need to be a few points ahead.

I won’t predict who’ll win. I don’t know. But I know that Harris is making unforced errors and acting like she doesn’t really want to win.

As for Trump, he’s clearly senile, out to lunch and would make a terrible President, but at least he wants it.

Fundamentals Series: On Problems, Principles & Solutions

When we want to change the world we’re usually reacting to a problem. Even positive visions usually come out of negatives. We want liberty because we have tyranny. We want health because we have sickness. We want prosperity because we have poverty. We want equality because some people have way more than they need and others less than need.

When we solve a problem it’s generally mediated by a principle. Very often the principle is just the problem stated slightly differently.

Problem: Some people have more than they need, others have less than they need.

Principle: Make sure no one has more than they need while anybody has less than they need.

A principle tells you, generally speaking, what you should be doing about a problem. It doesn’t tell you how to do it.

So, for the example above, post-war Welfare states generally came upon the solution:

Solution: Tax the rich heavily and put the poor on Welfare, controlled by social workers and other bureaucrats because poor people can’t be trusted to use money wisely.

If you think poor people aren’t stupid, then you have another solution, basic income + progressive taxation.

Restate the problem slightly by removing having too much as a problem, and the principles and solutions change:

Problem: some people don’t have enough.

Principle: Make it so that everyone has enough, or more than enough.

Solution: Just give everyone who has less than enough money, enough money. (Basic Income.)

Solution: If we make the rich even richer, enough will wind up flowing down to take care of everyone else. (Trickle Down Economics.)

Solution: The rich should give away most of their money over time, on good works or to organizations which do good works. (Charity.)

The difference between welfare and a basic income is instructive: one trusts those without enough money to spend it themselves, the other doesn’t. It’s mediated thru a view of why people are in poverty. Welfarism assumes poor people are somehow defective, basic income assumes they’re fine, they just don’t have enough money.

The first solution assumes having too much is bad, the second solutions all assume that some people having too much isn’t wrong, it’s that others don’t have enough


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Let’s look at another Triune, closely related, which focuses on being rich or powerful as the problem.

Problem: rich and powerful people use their power and wealth to take control of society and direct the benefits to themselves, hurting everyone else.

Principle: Keep the rich poor and the powerful weak.

There are a lot of different solutions to this and solutions are often in used together. Those that work usually only work for a while.

Solution: If they have enough money to influence politics or society, take it from them. (Specific policies like progressive taxation, estate taxes, wealth taxes, and so on.)

Solution: Don’t let the rich spend their money on politics. (Public finance laws, donation limits and so on. Doesn’t work all that well, but does have some effect.)

Solution: Don’t let the rich have private specialists in violence.

Solution: Don’t let rich people happen at all. (Proposals for maximum income and maximum wealth taxes.)

But wealth isn’t the only type of power, so something also needs to be done about people who control rich or powerful organizations. If I only have 3x as much money as median, but control a large bank, that’s all bullshit. I’m rich, I just have some limits on how I can spend that money. And this is where you come up with things like anti-trust law, limits on how large any organization can be, limits on corporate political spending, separation of church and state and so on.

Let’s move to another problem, primarily from the 18th and 19th century.

Problem: industrialization requires large numbers of people willing to work in factories but most people don’t want or need to work in factories because they can support themselves thru agriculture on common lands and factory jobs involve much more work in horrible conditions.

Principle: Large numbers of people must not be able to support themselves without working in factories.

Solution: Take away their commons rights so they must take any other job.

Note that other principles and solutions could have been tried. Perhaps:

Principle: Make factory work more desirable than agricultural commons work.

Solution: concentrate on safety and wages and don’t have 6 1/2 twelve hour shifts a week.

Pay them better and treat them better, in other words. The argument against is that it wouldn’t have been profitable, but profit is a function of political and social choices.

In fact, in post WWII America, that solution was tried, and it worked. China had to deal with this problem, and used both principles and solutions in concert.

Problems suggest principles, and principles suggest solutions, but there relationship isn’t 1:1, it’s mediated thru ideology, which is to say how the decision makers think the world is and should be.

I’m going to write a series of articles on the principles which would create a good society: the Fundamental series.

But it needs to be understood that every principle is based on a perceived problem or vision. Every principle is based on a set of assumptions about the world, an ideology, and that solutions are extensions of principles.

You don’t discard problems unless you don’t think they’re problems.

You don’t discard principles unless you disagree with their underlying ideology.

You blow thru solutions until you find some that work, and work without creating problems you can’t mitigate.

When FDR was in charge he knew what he wanted to do, but if a solution didn’t work, he’d throw it out and try something else. He wasn’t wedded to specific solutions.

There are non-negotiable means, mostly along the lines of “don’t torture or rape”, but mostly the question is “are you actually solving the problem and doing so while respecting the principle?”

This three part design is the first fundamental.

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