Some Interesting Things About the Russian Coalition’s Syrian Campaign

Based on the terrain I think it might be a while before they start that in earnest although interdicting your enemy’s supplies is always a good thing to do. Notwithstanding the importance of interdicting enemy supplies there’s a lot more to do first not least Aleppo and securing the central highway.

Some sort of air operation against the border passes coupled with a build up in the plains to interdicts supplies and catch the rebels between a rock and hard place seems to me to be the most likely way they’d go about sealing the border. Preparations would include upgrading armour defenses against the more sophisticated anti-tank weapons now reputed to be on their way, ensuring that there was large enough an infantry component to clear and hold and so on. The logistics of all of that would likely take a bit of time. At the moment everything is pretty much speculation and to the best of my knowledge and belief shatter proof crystal balls are still at the vapourware stage of development.

MacMillan was once asked what it was he feared:

“‘events, dear boy, events”

It applies quite as much to the military art as it does to the political one.

mfi

@VA

Russia didn’t have much of an economy before the oil price crash and they are burning through their reserves rapidly with no sign of a recovery. Their GDP is smaller than Italy’s and most of the huge gas deals celebrated not long ago are either stalled or canceled.

The BRICS have crumbled to the RIC and the multipolar world is looking more bipolar with Russia left out. The decision to project a ‘Holy Battle’ onto the ME may serve to deflect attention from the problems in the Motherland and the Russian arms industries just as the US arms industries will benefit from more destruction and bloodshed while the non-military economies suffer recession.

I admired Putin’s rhetoric and clear analysis of the West’s arrogance and interference in the ME while he used diplomacy to defuse crisis situations but when his ME diplomacy failed to attract rebel support, because of his support for a petty dictator, he reverted to the same crude militaristic remedy he blames the West for using.

Putin’s critique of the West on the ME would seem more honest if he once admitted that the Russia/USSR intervention into Afghanistan was and is one of the major reasons for the rise of Political Islam.

@SB

I would appreciate any corrections of factual errors I, at the Ministry of One, might make! If you are watching TV news I can understand your confusion but online propaganda can be just as misleading and then there is always confirmation bias to contend with.

When Putin starts flooding T-72B1Vs into Syria like he just did Iraq, we’ll know he is serious.

The now 200 T-72B1Vs Iraq got to replace their useless M1A1s have Relikt Era, Shtora, and Arena fitted which makes them far more survivable against ATGMs, and have real Anti-personnel weaponry and a range of 12km when firing HE-Frag shells which is perfect for dealing with ATGM teams and SVBIEDs IS is using.

Syria is getting a new shipment of BTR-82As to increase its handful of them further, and more is likely coming.

With Putin needing to dump large numbers of stockpiled tanks to pay for a switchover to the new combat platforms, expect Iraq and Syria to disavow debts in Western Countries and buy up old but still highly capable Russian Gear which has the trinkets to survive ATGM littered battlefields and fight back.

“Russian policy in Syria and the Middle East is not particularly good a”…sigh.

“Israel, our bestest ally in the region, is spectacularly absent in the fight against ISIS. “. Bigger sigh.

Some facts:
(1) Israel is and has been an enthusiastic supporter of the Al-Nasra front (and its assorted allies), including air and artillery attacks on the Syrian Army.

(2) The simple fact is that the direct children of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Al Nasra and IS are the two biggest forces in Syria, they next 2 largest (and the 4 together would be more than 90% of all anti Syrian Govt forces) are allied with them, especially with the more poltically adept Al Nasra and are all Sunni Jihadists.
Therefore if the Syrian Govt fell it would fall to monstrous Sunni Jihadists as there is about a cigarette paper’s difference between them in ideology.

The resulting mass slaughter of millions of Christians. Alawites, Shiites non salafist Sunnis would rival our old friend Pol Pot. Add in 5-510 million more refugees and you have a disaster waiting to happen.

The Coalition of the Terminally Insane (CoTI) comprising the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the minnows (UK, France, Qatar, Jorden) are enthusiastic supporters of this happening and have worked very hard to achieve it.

Each of them have different ideas about what happens after the Syrian Govt falls of course, all completely mad and totally unrealistic. Each of them are betting that their support for IS/AN/etc will somehow gave them some control and leverage over them..as if.
For example Turkey is hoping that IS/AN/etc will wave flags and welcome them with open arms when the Turkish Army comes in afterwards to grab chunks of Syrian territory. Israel hopes they will immediately move onto Southern Lebanon and cleanse it totally…then wave Israeli flags as the IDF comes into claim the territory. Again..as if.

The CoTI have had a good time up until recently, sure that Syria would collapse as per Libya. Then the Russians moved in and spoiled it all…oops…

So the CoTI would all agree ‘….not particularly good’ , but anyone (with two neurones functioning) that realises that, as bad as the Syrian Govt may be, it is practically saint like compared to those monstrous Jihadists.

In the end you have to pick your side, some sort of functioning secular civilisation vs nihilist monsters.

Now the Russians are showing them all what real war is about. The apparent weakness of the Syrian Army was (now obvious) them pulling back, resupplying, adding replacements, integrating Hezbollah and the Iranians and building up a reserve, all under Russian control. With clear strategic, logistic and tactical plans. This, again now obvious, has been planned and worked on for months.

Hit and isolate the jihadists, cut off supplies (theirs is limited and will run out), coordinated air and ground attacks, stop them grouping up, hammer their communications and all the rest. As I said.. real war. It will be hard and bloody fighting, but the Syrian Govt will win.

The recent attack on Aleppo achieved total strategic and tactical surprise and opens a second front against the Jihadists and threatens many supply lines and, using a favourite tactic of the Russians, encirclement and a ‘cauldron’.

Peter* “The next few months should show just how huge a blunder Hajji Putin has made by attempting to prop up a minority dictator when the majority Sunni Political Islam is rising.”

That, to be charitable, is showing an incredible unawareness of the facts. You do know they actually had elections there recently? Which, albeit not perfect by any means, did show massive support for the Govt. You do know the majority of their Army is Sunni?

So this propaganda theme that the Syrian Sunni support the Jihadists (IS, AN and the rest) is just that ..propaganda.

The reality is the Syrian Govt is secular, carefully ensuring the various ethnic/religious groups have a stake in the system.

And, I will ask what outcome do you want? A Sunni Salafist takeover and mass extermination of Christians, Alawites, Shiites, moderate Sunnis, gays…along with the slavery (with enforced genital mutilation) of women there?

Would this give you a warm fuzzy feeling of ‘winning’ if this happens? Russia beaten the Syrian Govt shattered, the flags of IS and AN over Damascus, the streets running red with blood…. That is your preferred outcome? Will you watch the later videos with glee as the blood flows, the gays thrown off roofs, the women subjugated into slavery?

That is a nihilist point of view. It is also, in many countries, an illegal point of view as this is giving aid and comfort to internationally listed terrorists.

And “.. Russia/USSR intervention into Afghanistan was and is one of the major reasons for the rise of Political Islam.”
Is an incredible re-writing of history.
I wait with baited breath for your “Russia started WW2” comment and the “RAF beat the Red Air Force at the BoB” and all the rest…

As everyone who can read (and is not shill) knows that the US supported Jihadi opposition to attack the secular and moderately socialist Govt there, to deliberately suck the USSR in. This is openly admitted, with glee, by the architects of it. Pity about 9/11 of course, but they see that as the cost of doing business and that actually aided them politically.

Jihadists have been endlessly supported by the US both then and since then. Of course we dont like them when they, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, hammer us, but the neo-cons (and their shills) love them so much when they do what we want them to do, like take over Libya, attack Syria, etc.

Sadly for them, jihadi monsters are just monsters and they will kill us if they can.

For all those AN (etc) supporters out there: Do you know the ideological difference between them and IS (both children of AQI) and why they split? It was because IS wants to create a Caliphate now, then attack the west. AN wants to attack the west first, then create a Caliphate.
Bin Ladin will be laughing in his grave at us.

Another thing not noticed by many, IS, AN, etc have nowhere to go. They cannot head back to guerrilla warfare and swim amongst the people…because the people have all gone from the areas they hold. Including all the Sunnis.

They are such monsters they scared away just about everyone, with the exception of in Aleppo. These places are already hammered too there is little disincentive not flatten places if needed.

So this is to the death. Strategically the Russian controlled forces (and they are in control) will cut supply lines, none of the jihadists will have that much in weapon supplies, less as air attrition cuts transport and their supply dumps. Tactically they will try and create cauldrons, as used so effectively in the Ukraine.

Bigger picture and later, cut the Turkish and Jordanian supply lines, then roll IS up in Iraq. Game over then. IS has shown no ability to fight well at all, rather it has used mobility, fear and confusion to a clever level.

Tactical risks, at some point ether Turkey or (unlikely) Israel will try some sort of air interdiction against Syria…it will fail spectacularly. Israel won’t risk its precious air force, but it might try to continue artillery support for AN, at some point Russia might have to teach them a lesson about that, but backdoor Russian diplomacy will probably avert that.

Most interesting ME war since 2006 (as for the others elsewhere, 2008 in Georgia was a cakewalk and the thrashing of Kiev forces in 2013/2014..well what can you say).

Yet another thing not noticed, the incredible diplomatic offensive by Russia all over the place and, I will bet, careful talks with Turkish opposition leaders too.

killing begets more killing. no matter the sides, it’s the sos, “us or them” “kill them before they kill us.” the collective mind is a baboon society.

Peter,

US support for Jihahis in Afghanistan predates the Soviet invasion.

“The next few months should show just how huge a blunder Hajji Putin has made by attempting to prop up a minority dictator when the majority Sunni Political Islam is rising.”

Only among the gibbering Wahabi lunatics, who are a small minority of Sunnis and who are very unpopular among other Sunnis for how easily they are provoked to scream ‘Apostate!!!” at other Muslims & start chopping heads. As has been noted, the majority of the Syrian Armed Forces are non-Wahabi Sunnis who know their gruesome fate if they fall int the hands of the ‘moderate’ head-chopping Wahabi lunatics.

That’s one fact-impared troll dealt with.

@rkka

At least your uninformed comment is brief but you did include a personal attack to highlight your weak position and inability to handle simple debate.

I wonder if you understand that the Syrian Army is a conscript army and the Sunni Syrian youths are drafted and have no choice other than to flee the country to avoid the draft which thousands have done. Even Assad admitted that he couldn’t find or even bribe enough personnel to replace the loses from the war.

The Islamic State’s slick PsyOps beheading of westerners has stirred the deepest fears, and guilt, of many Infidels and they continue to foam at the mouth in reaction to this provocation. To keep your fear and helplessness properly directed you might try to remember that the Russians, Iranians and the SAA are fighting the ‘Lung Eaters’, moderate cannibals not the ‘Head Chopping’ Islamic State, that Holy Battle may or may not ever happen.

That the British did it too does not in anyway diminish reflexive Iranian distrust of Russian motives. I’m frankly surprised they have overcome it to establish this collection of bedfellows and I have to think that it’s going to be an ongoing tension.

Most of the nonsense, spin and propaganda offered in Lisa’s comments can be found at sites such as Al Manar, SANA and even Fars News so they are not worthy of a response but there is an interesting meme being developed.

Listing al-Nusra as one of the largest nationalist rebel groups in this conflict is strange because they have app. 8 to 10,000 fighters and there are much larger non-IS groups fighting Assad and his foreign mercenaries. The Assad sycophants can’t depend on his forces and their allies to significantly reduce the size of the nationalist rebel forces so they are attempting a revisionist history to disappear tens of thousands of rebels.

Using a Dictators elections as a talking point even with caveats is beyond ludicrous and it seems the Egyptian public agrees with my view as witnessed by their rejection of voting in this weekends pseudo- democracy ritual.

I wonder if Peter Asterisk is the same Peter as the kook from several weeks ago who wants a Logan’s Run type of society, with the “cutoff” based on reaching a certain amount of energy consumption instead of reaching age 30.

If yes, it would explain his fondness for the barbarians.

The liver-eating, slave-taking, decapitating barbarians are killing off large numbers of us horrible energy-consuming talking apes, which would make the barbarians virtuous in his eyes, if Peter Asterisk and Peter Kook are the same Peter.

@Lisa

It’s a fools errand to chase all the propaganda you parrot that’s why I addressed the misinformation you used about the size of al-Nusra and the assumption you made about the size of the nationalist rebel forces. It’s been the SOP of Iran and Assad to conflate the nationalist rebels, whatever their Islamic tendencies, with the Islamic State just as you did above. The nationalists are predominately Syrians who are fighting for a Syrian State with differing ideas about what kind of State, religious or secular, an Islamic state is not The Islamic State.

The IS are Transnationalists who intend for al-Sham to be a province/emirate of the Muslim Caliphate a much grander endeavor that rejects the Western concept of nationalism and its borders. This hardly neutral term, in this conflict, is why the IS has been and is attacking the nationalist rebel forces at every opportunity. Most of the approximately half of Syria controlled by the IS was taken from the nationalist rebels by force.

This may make this conflict even more confusing for you but do you know that the Iranians, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and others foreigners fighting for Assad are also Islamists and Jihadists. Iran is an Islamist State called an Islamic Republic ruled by a Shia twelver Supreme Leader and a religious council.

In Syria they are in the grinding phase. This is always hard to report on because it just seems like endless battles and nothing seems to happen.

In the end it depends on the moral, manpower and resources of each side. If the Syrian Army (etc) can keep up the pressure and has sufficient reserves of troops and supplies plus the moral to continue it will win.
But it will take time for AN(etc) to run out of men and ammo(etc). At this stage, being the attackers, the SA will suffer larger losses and use up ammo faster.

This where air support, properly done, can make a huge difference with CAS and interdiction. AN(etc) may have large ammo dumps hidden away but if it cannot get to them or ship stuff from them to the front they are effectively useless.

Careful coordination of the attacks, where, when, what with are key elements. Finding the weak spots, stretching the enemy and so on are also critical. Managing logistics and reserves are also critical for the Syrian side, pointless having superior forces (etc) if you cannot get them to the right places on time.

These sorts of things tend to go on until either the defenders totally crack or the attackers give up.

On the strategic, tactical levels and the men and material side the SA has the advantages, but what about the moral side? Equally what about the moral side of the defenders who haven’t, to date, been through this sort of coordinated meat grinder thing? Both those are unknowns.

The defenders have the disadvantage of being a ‘hard crust’, wth little (as far as I can see) defence in depth. Therefore if they crack, it will happen very quickly at some point, switching from a grinding to a chase. But this grinding could continue for weeks.

For examples of this sort of thing the Al Alamein and Normandy battles (not the US accounts of Normandy by the way they are all piffe) are useful guides.

A lot of, particularly western, people struggle to understand this sort of war. After years and years of COIN type stuff with lots of small, sharp, short engagements, this ‘real war’ stuff is not in their mindset.

Time does seem to be standing still for the Russian, Assad and Iranian offensive and a Syrian military spokesman has stated it will be three months, or never, before any progress is made against the rebels. Rebel forces have broken through the Axis of Resistance lines on a number of fronts and the Islamic State is moving to consolidate new areas of control.

Putin summoned Assad to the Kremlin, from hiding in his not so stronghold, probably to find out what the hell happened to his foolproof and much hyped war plans. Putin is again parroting his failed and totally rejected, by all rebel leaders, You’re stuck with Assad, or we bomb you back to the Stone Age Peace Plan.

CAS might or might not make a difference but Putin is not foolish enough to try it because film of flaming Russian Jets auguring into the Syrian desert, with cheering rebels in the foreground, wouldn’t play well on the nightly news in Moscow.

Even if ISIS does prevail, (sh’yeah, riiiiight 😆 ) I doubt they will refuse to sell their natural resources, which would be their only significant source of income, to the only people who can pay top dollar for them.

(Also, not all petroleum is buried under the Middle East, but that’s another issue.)

Oh, perhaps ISIS will choose to starve in holy poverty rather than rake in big bucks–but that would contradict the bulk of human history.

Let Peter have his faith in human piety.

I have faith in human greed.

Which one does the bulk of the history of Homo sapiens suggest will prevail? 😈

Oopsie! Looks like ISIS has more Ferengi than Dalek in them after all! 😆

Thanks for the information, Lisa.

It does my dark and corrupt heart good to see good old human vice stomp a mud hole in fanatical Virtue and walk it dry yet again. 😈

@IBP

You seem to be as or more confused and misinformed than Lisa. The Islamic State is self-funding but may receive a small amount of its needs from donations. The nationalist rebel groups do depend on outside funding for their needs supplied from a variety of donors.

Now that we are witnessing the failure of the Russian offensive in Syria Putin may return to his still darker side and have the Polonium tea served to those who dare to thwart his grand schemes.

Mike Whitney in Counterpunch:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/21/putin-forces-obama-to-capitulate-on-syria/

Ivory Bill Woodpecker: “Now that we are witnessing the failure of the Russian offensive…” –Herr Peter, 1944

Love it……

“more Ferengi than Dalek”. yep.

That is the ideological split from Al Nasra (both are children of AQI). ISIS wants to create a Caliphate first, so it tries to create some sort of functionality of a State, which it wants to become. Yes a horrible state (recent fatwa making female genital mutilation compulsory for example). Sort of a Saudi Arabia on steriods. It main target of desire is probably Saudi Arabia in the end, which it sees as corrupt and having left the path of true Wahabbi Sunni beliefs.

In a very cynical sense, from the western perspective, they are better than Al Nasra, because you could trade with them as we do now.

Al Nasra makes no bones about attacking the west after winnng in Syria and getting its hands on all those lovely weapons. So it is ironic that the west (and Israel) support it more (publically) than ISIS.

In either case Bin Ladin is jumping up and down for glee in his grave at western self destructive stupidity. It is also ironic that the dominant US neo-conservatives have done everything, and a lot more, that he wanted (and publically stated too). In fact the thought of a US-Russia war to defend Al Nasra would exceed even his greatest fantasies.

You look around the world at the various leaders and Govts and it is hard not to come to the conclusion that Putin is the only one with an IQ greater than the temp of a warm cup of tea…in centigrade. It seems like they are losing a couple of IQ points every year since 9/11.

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