Super Tuesday—Clinton and Trump Win as Expected

Clintons are apparently using the secret service to effectively block voting at polling stations.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/48ic05/apparently_mayor_of_new_bedford_ma_is_campaigning/

@Hugh, interesting point. But remember, it also gives blacks disproportionate weight, since they are concentrated in the South — which is amplified by the fact that they block-vote like no other group. That’s what did Bernie in more than anything.

“Remember that Sanders polls best in blue states, not red states.”

Uh, have you any statistics to back that up? Have you looked closely at the poll results for all 50 states? Mapped them out? I don’t think most folks have. I think that’s just an assumption. Looks to me like Sanders is doing well almost everywhere in the country other than the NY-DC beltway and the south. If I’m not mistaken he’s ahead in every state west of the Mississippi, except for Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, that bit of the south west of the river. He’s strong in the blue states on the west coast, Calif, Oregon, Wash, but also doing well in the more conservative states out west, midwest, and north like Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Nebraska. If I’m not mistaken he’s currently ahead in around 32 states, nearly twice as many as Hillary. If you make a map showing where he’s ahead it’s very interesting, and makes it clear just how limited Hillary’s support is.

People shouldn’t believe this nonsense about the south determining things. It’s just the media back east. California alone has nearly as many delegates as the entire south, 546, and it’s Sanders country, this won’t be settled till June.

@ Hugh – A question for you although anonymous coward above has mostly answered it:

Am I right in supposing that Clinton is doing well in the primaries in states that aren’t even remotely likely to vote for her in the election proper? I’ve read about her having a “southern firewall” and if the election proper were a purely southern democrat affair she’d doubtless win it courtesy of the said “firewall”. But it’s not a purely southern democrat affair so I find myself wondering how viable her campaign is once it gets past the heavy petting stage and settles in to some serious electoral wooing.

It seems to me that all Trump would have to do eviscerate her campaign is tour the states reciting a list in each state of employers that have gone out of business as a direct result of Bill Clinton’s evisceration of American manufacturing – all he has to do is remind voters of the Clintons’ boast that if you elected him you got her for free (remember her health care “reforms”?) and ask them if having seen both employment opportunities and wages hit the bottom of the barrel they really want to have what’s left of the barrel dismantled around their ears.

I finally figured out what Trump reminds me of.

Money and power, but no class–he resembles a Mob boss.

Looking at the media tonight I’m relly not sure what’s happening but here are some takeaways.

A number of moderate conservatives are outright saying they will vote for Clinton over Trump (and maybe over Cruz)

There is a much larger number of the GOP who have vowed not to back anyone if Trump is the Nominee.

A third party bid from leftovers of the GOP is likely, several seem to think a new party can be formed and a majority of former republicans lined up behind them in months.

Cruz has surprising numbers in national polls vs Hillary but his actual on the ground support seems to not line up with polls at all.

A number of GOP pundits have come out with plans for the future (trying to avoid the doom and gloom of the weekend media coverage) the problem is they all have different ideas.

It seems at the very least the GOP as it has been known since the Reagan era will be either radically changed or a dead man walking this time next year.

mfi: you are correct, with two exceptions. If you look at the vote counts in the states Clinton won, the Republican turnout runs 160-200% of the Dem turnout; in the states Sanders wonthat’s reversed (tho by a smaller margin). The exceptions: MA, where Clinton ekes out a small win (20k votes out of 1.16M), where Dem turnout crushes the Reps, and OK, where Sanders wins by 10 points but the Dems are outnumbered 3:2.

Sanders’ position will never be worse than tonight.

I guess now we see how serious Sanders is about trying to become the nominee. Whether he is in it to win it, as they say. He’s 74, I hope he’s decided to go for it, but we’ll see. He’s going to be under enormous pressure to either 1) drop out or 2) seriously dial down his criticisms of Clinton so as not to “damage” her (because without him pointing it out, voters would apparently be too stupid to notice how tied she is to Wall Street, her foreign policy record, etc.). I think he’d be crazy to drop out now given the next couple of weeks are his low point in terms of what states are voting and he’s been on an upward national trajectory, but who knows?

I wouldn’t rely too much on where Clinton is winning the primaries in making an “electability” argument. Obama won the nomination in 2008 largely in non-Dem states, with Clinton winning most big “blue” states and swing states. He still won in November. The response will just be that those Sanders states will go Dem, they “always” go Dem. You know, until they don’t.

I think the true danger signs and the better argument on her electability are the head-to-head polls and her downward trajectory in terms of approval/support. Although many Democrats I know can’t actually envision her losing to Trump. Limited imagination that lot.

My comment: the BLACK VOTE.

Although black people as a demographic are historically the most left-wing group, and black activism right now is vibrantly radical, black voters are overwhelmingly going for the Establishment, corporatist, pro-bank, pro-prison, pro-war candidate.

This is a fact whatever “movement” is happening together with the Sanders candidacy MUST reckon with. What is the reason for this?

White people like me have to be respectful and not be telling black people I think they’re voting against their interest, as I don’t have any skin in this game, no pun intended, so it’s not my problem if Clinton actually had a better chance of stopping Trump. (big if)

Still, I know a lot of younger black people hate Hillary, and I do believe in the black misleadership class theory: black people out of necessity built powerful non-state organizations to further their interests. These organizations have grown old, stale and comfortable. The Clinton campaign’s top down strategy of getting union leadership endorsement despite rank-and-file disatisfaction probably also applies to black organizations.

Would different leadership in these organizations have tipped the scales?

Well, this sheep isn’t voting for any more Clintons ever. In fact I won’t be voting for any more Democrats ever, if Bernie is not the nominee. (Voting is probably soon to go out of fashion altogether in this country, so that’s not such a dramatic statement as it may appear) The only reason I entertained the idea of voting for Sanders, and I am late convert, is that he wasn’t a Democrat. I used to remonstrate with myself about my voter apathy if I may be allowed to use such a big word by pointing at the example of my Congressman, John Lewis. John Lewis is yer Representative, I said, so how can you really complain about the system? It’s giving you all the quality of representation you could ask for, it’s just all the other Congressional districts that are fucked up. However, watching Lewis get in front of cameras this campaign season and pretend that Bernie Sanders is actually lying about having been involved in the civil rights protests of the Kennedy/Johnson years has swept aside the last stay against my total disgust and rejection. He’s doing this in the context of Mayor Kasim Reed’s remarks that Bernie Sanders is exactly the same to him as Donald Trump, in other words Bernie’s just another racist cracker. And Lewis then pipes up on behalf of a thoroughly corrupt local machine (google for terms: Dekalb county, GA corruption bribery, extortion county CEO Burrell Ellis, Lee Mays, streetcar boondoggle, Atlanta Public Schools scandal) and in support of a woman who was a Goldwater Girl back in the historical period in question. Asked about Sanders civil rights involvement Lewis said “I never saw Bernie Sanders.” Implication: Sanders is liar and a racist just like Mayor Reid told you. Disgraceful. I still believe he is a Good Man. But prolonged contact with a corrupt system has twisted him and brought him down to the point where he can’t recognize and join forces with another good man. Hillary represents the Identity Politics spoils system, the black Democratic Party machine in GA and elsewhere isn’t interested in how the economy functions, how wealth is generated they just see Wall Street making an ill-gotten mint and want to know “Where is our slice of that?” (not that they’re going to share it out with their voters, mind you) Bernie threatens the both the Golden Calf of Wall St. and the death grip of Identity Politics on the Democratic Party – because he doesn’t pander to it which is the same thing as being against it. From the point of view of the corruption machine, Bernie has to be stopped, and sadly John Lewis has covered himself in shit this time, instead of glory.

I won’t be voting for Trump either. I could give lots of reasons there. I may say things like “Bern this mother down!” at times, but my desire to stick my finger in the eye of Democrats for being a corrupt corporatist sellout party doesn’t extend to deliberately blowing up my country.

@Some Guy
Reading the interviews with voters, I’m struck by how many Clinton voters are voting for her even though they prefer Sanders policies.

I noticed that on the progressive station on the radio last night. The media drumbeat of electability combined with the fact that she actually is really sharp & super intelligent, even if her judgement is shit. She is quite honestly the best presidential debater I’ve seen in my life, except a couple of times when she’s gotten rattled & nasty this go round, I think both because Bernie’s jabs about her policies hit home and because she as much as her more obnoxious supporters really believe she’s entitled to the resume stuffer position. Also, she can be charming. We forget that on the blogs I read cause we all hate her, but a lot of the time she comes off very likable, and people already predisposed to like her–most Democrats prior to this election–are going to latch on to that. The support is for her, because they believe in her ability & her electability & cause they want a woman president. I even agree we are way overdue. That is what’s keeping her afloat, combined with at least a few people who believe her “policy shift” & this idiocy that “they agree on nearly everything.”

If sh beoth just came out and said, “here’s what I plan to do” and was honest about it, and the media analyzed both platforms fairly for likely outcomes, or maybe even if they didn’t, he would win 70-30 or 80-20 across the board.