At the beginning of the election, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) was leading, Conservatives were in second, and the Liberal Party was in third.
Now that we’re going into the election, the Liberals are polling first, Conservatives second, and the NDP is third.
What happened? As I’ve been distracted this election, I asked one of the savviest Canadian observers I know for his thoughts.
For much of the election, the NDP and Liberals were polling even. Then Harper started demonizing Niqabs.
Unfortunately, this strategy played well in the province of Quebec and because the NDP was not on board with it, their numbers in that province crashed.
This dropped NDP’s numbers below the Liberal party.
Next, the “Anyone But Harper” dynamic kicked in. With dropping numbers in Quebec, the NDP’s national numbers began to look bad. At that point, those on the left who wanted Harper out more than they cared about who would replace him flocked to the Liberals as the party which could displace Harper.
We’ll see how the actual election runs. Polls have been unreliable in a number of elections lately. Still, it doesn’t look good for the NDP.
The Liberals, under Justin Trudeau, have voted for most of Harper’s signature bills, including C51 (which gutted civil liberties.) If the Liberals get into office, they will be 90 percent as neo-liberal as the Conservatives, but less obnoxious about it.
The best chance now for a decent government is if the Liberals get a minority and make a deal with the NDP for support.
This is disappointing, but at the end of the day, Canadians will get the government they deserve. Mulcair has spent years opposing Harper while Trudeau has supported him. Any Canadian paying one iota of attention should know this.
And if making it so Muslim women can’t wear the Niqab is more important to Quebec than voting for an actual left-wing government, well, yes, sorry, “deserve” is the right word.
Still, we’ll see. Fingers crossed.
If you enjoyed this article, and want me to write more, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE.