Justin Trudeau
So, as the polls predicted, the Liberals win the most seats, but just short of a majority. The Conservatives actually got slightly more of the popular vote at 33 to 34 percent, but as their support is geographically clustered, they received less seats.
The NDP lost seats, taking them down to 24. The Bloc went from almost none to probably 32 of Quebec’s 78 ridings, making them the third largest party. This shouldn’t be taken as meaning separatism is roaring back, the Bloc downplayed separatism, but did benefit from supporting the “no religious symbols law” in Quebec (which includes hijabs and so on). The Quebecois, like the French, are still big believers in secularism and not fans of multiculturalism.
The most likely result here is a Liberal/NDP coalition government, though Trudeau could try to govern as a minority. He won’t want to ally with the Bloc as they are still officially separatists, and the rest of Canada wouldn’t like that.
My read of Trudeau’s personality is that he’s woke in the most performative sense; he doesn’t actually believe in anything left-wing, really, and he won’t like allying with the NDP. I read Trudeau right when he became leader, noting that there was no chance in hell of any electoral reform under him unless it was ranked ballots, and I stated that he was an empty shirt. His betrayal of his promises to Canada’s indigenous people and his buying a pipeline indicate I was correct.
Trudeau would be more comfortable working with the Conservatives, in my view, but that’s impossible for a variety of reasons.
So, we’ll see what he does. I’d expect him to suck it up and do a coalition, then like his father, after having been forced to do some left-wing things by the NDP, to use those as proof that he’s left-wing and not an empty shirt, and call another election. (His father, though many things, was not empty, mind you.)
However, we’ll see. Trudeau’s primary characteristic is near narcissism. He’s always been beautiful, rich, and loved. He has near divine confidence that whatever he does is right, and he’s a neoliberal at heart.
As for the longer future, nothing about this election is good. The NDP continue to slide. The Conservatives are getting stronger, and the Liberals are just neoliberals. There is no sign that Canadian politics is getting healthier, other than a minor surge by the NDP towards the end. The choice remains one between “bad” or “terrible.”
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