The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: CIA

The Big, Wet Venezuelan Coup Flop

Maduro

Well, it seems to have gone pretty much nowhere. A big flop. Far from being a dictator, Maduro appears to be running for the most forgiving person in power on the planet. A dictator would have had Guiado shot; a normal politican would have had him arrested for treason by now.

Remember when the CIA was feared for being good at coups? (Well, to be fair, they’re still racking up some: The Color revolutions and Maidan, in particular.)

One of the reasons the US keeps invading and bombing countries is that the CIA keeps failing; they couldn’t overthrow Saddam, Khomeini, Assad, Castro, or Gaddafi. The black boys having failed, the military is then the last resort.

It would be better if the US just let other countries run their own affairs and dealt with whoever wound up in charge. The coups usually backfire (as with overthrowing Iran’s elected government and installing the Shah), and the wars leave failed states and refugee crises behind, while fueling violent terrorism and powerful militias. But some empires never learn, I guess.


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The CIA vs. Trump

Or, perhaps I should say, the intelligence community vs. Trump.

Let us be clear, the fact that the left is against Trump and that the intelligence community is against Trump should not mean, to anyone with sense, that the CIA, NSA, or any other alphabet soup agency is good, or noble, or our friend.

It just means we have the same enemy.

In World War II, the USSR and the US had the same enemy. After WWII, they almost immediately turned on each other.

If the CIA were to take out Trump, they would immediately go back to attacking left-wingers, as they have for their entire history.

From the POV of the left-wing, the best outcome of the intelligence community/Trump war would be mutual destruction.

And afterwards, salt the goddamn earth. The CIA and NSA are not the friend of any left-wing worth having: They are innately anti-democratic, anti-privacy, and anti-human rights. Secret agencies are anathema to any open government. At an existential level, intelligence agencies are at best a double edged sword, and by their nature, they always wind up serving the interests of the few, against the interests of the people.

The CIA and NSA are a greater long term threat than Trump. Indeed, it is the existence of a turn-key police/surveillance state like them which makes Trump so potentially dangerous. It is a good thing they don’t like him, or he them. But that is not because they believe in “liberty” or “democracy” or “the constitution.” For these agencies to pretend it is so, in the face of their long term actions to subvert all three, is laughable. (The NSA was found out to be spying on its own Congressional oversight committee. It is a rogue organization already.)

By all means, cheer the intelligence community on. But if you’re wise, you’ll be cheering Trump to destroy them at the same time. And you won’t trust either, but especially not the intelligence community, who are likely to be around long after Trump is dead, whether he dies from a convenient sniper on a hill or not.


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Trump’s Relationship with US Intelligence

Trump, as has been reported many times, does not attend most daily intelligence briefings. The CIA, FBI, and NSA have said that Russia tried to elect Trump through hacking, and Trump has fired back at them.

Liberals are wringing their hands about Trump’s unprofessionalism and disrespect for the intelligence agencies.

Some of this is just embarrassing: Given how intelligence agencies performed in the Iraq war, and their dubious and incompetent behavior in many other episodes, and given the historically violent, anti-democratic nature of the CIA overseas, and the FBI and NSA domestically, anyone who is even slightly left of center should be deeply suspicious of anything they do.

But there is a deeper issue, which speaks (again) directly to the inability of most non-Trump people to understand the Trump argument about the world.

The CIA says bad things about Trump, and Trump answers the same way that a hard left-winger would, and that anyone sane should: “Whatever.” Then he points out what a “heck of a job” they did in Iraq.

Daily intelligence briefings are one of the ways that intelligence agencies and the Deep State control presidents. Such briefings set the frame; they create the reality within which Presidents operate, frame the available options, and so on. Start the day with one almost every day, and you will be influenced to see the world the way they do.

And then you become Obama: Handmaiden to the same intelligence agencies you criticized while running your campaign.

Intelligence briefings are dubious activities. If Trump wants specific information, he can ask for it. If an issue is genuinely urgent, the head of the agency can push it personally, but taking those briefings every day is a poison pill, and I am highly skeptical of the notion that it leads to better decision-making.

Instead, it is almost certain to lead to status quo thinking, plus the perpetuation of those activities intelligence agencies most enjoy. (Say hello to Obama’s massive ramp up of drone assassinations, and to his huge crack down on whistleblowers.)

This the same as Trump not bothering to talk to State about his Taiwan call. Of course State is going to say, “Don’t do it,” they are wedded to “One China,” and they’ll also leak like a seive (as they and the CIA and FBI have already been doing).

Why even bother to talk to them about it? Oh, one can make arguments, but if you’re sure you want to change things, and you know they disagree, all talking to them does is give your enemies more opportunities to sandbag you.

There’s a lot that Trump wants to do that I don’t agree with, but putting the Deep State in their place isn’t one of those things. They serve at the President and Congress’s pleasure; they are not part of the Constitution, they do not have to be consulted, and, given their abysmal performance during the last few decades, it’s hard to see why any particular respect should be given to them.

This is the world model that Trump (inasmuch as he ascribes to a “world model”) and Bannon live in, Bannon especially. They do not grant that the people who have been running government are smarter or more competent than they are, they believe the reverse.

So, no, they don’t respect the CIA’s opinion. To them, the Deep State is a potential adversary who needs to be brought to heel.

More about bringing people to heel in a later post.


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