The left coalition has won the most seats in France, but failed to get a majority. Macron’s party is second, with LaPen third, though with more seats than ever before.
This is a result of candidates who were in third or worse place dropping out so as to not split the vote.
As a result it’s unclear who will form the next government, and how. La Pen is correct in saying:
“National Rally leader Le Pen, expected to make a fourth run for the French presidency in 2027, said the elections laid the groundwork for “the victory of tomorrow.”
“The reality is that our victory is only deferred,” she added. But Le Pen’s older sister, Marie-Caroline, was among her party’s losers Sunday, defeated by a leftist candidate and just 225 votes in her district.
It’s clear that the Center can’t stop the right. Policies like increasing the retirement age and various other austerity measures aren’t popular and can’t fix France’s economy. Macron’s reign has seen repeated mass protests and strikes, often violent.
For the Left to take over in the next election they need to deliver at least a bit. It may not be impossible: the right might vote with them on some issues, such as rolling back the pension age increase (which they opposed) and they may be able to convince the center to vote with them on other issues.
In addition, when they are stopped from pursuing popular policies like taxing the rich to pay for social programs, they need to scream to high heavens and make the case that with a majority they will be able to deliver their entire program.
Much of the problem in France has been that when Neoliberals want to do the right thing, like fight climate change, they do it in the most regressive way possible, hurting workers and farmers, rather than making the rich pay. Outlawing private jets and taxing the rich, then using the money to pay farmers to make necessary changes rather than forcing farmers to take the hit is a winning policy.
France now has a real chance to avoid fascism. Let’s hope the left can maneuver well enough to make it happen.