Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Gaza Genocide Page 1 of 2

Why Claiming Gaza’ Death Toll Was In The Ten Thousands Mattered

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On February 7, 2025

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For most of the Gaza “war” official civilian casualty numbers were in the mid tens of thousands. They rose quickly at first, then they rose slowly, which was odd, because as time went by there were fewer and fewer hospitals, less food, less clean water, less medicine and less of Gaza that wasn’t rubble. There was every reason to expect the death toll to accelerate.

It now seems like the death toll is around four hundred thousand, perhaps higher, out of an initial population of 2.2 to 2.3 million.

The official numbers were offered by Hamas and they were obviously wrong, on the face of it. I don’t entirely know why, but there are some likely possibilities:

  • The longer the war went on the less capacity there was to count the dead;
  • Lots of dead were buried under rubble or otherwise hard to count;
  • The Ministry wanted to give the most conservative number, only what they could actually prove, rather than what they knew was actually the case. Similar to how most climate change forecasts are wrong to the downside. They figured this would protect them from charges over inflating the numbers or being alarmist.
  • Hamas wanted lower numbers because, after all, it looks bad when they can’t protect Palestinians, essentially, at all.
  • Israel went along with it because while they knew damn well that they were committing genocide, the lower the number the easier their propaganda job was, since for some odd reason a lot of non-Israelis think genocide is bad, even if you do it to “subhumans.”

It’s the last two which are most important. There’s a big difference between the official death toll of 46,600 and a death toll of between 300,000 and half a million. Tens of thousands could indicate depraved indifference to Palestinian civilian deaths rather than deliberate genocide, if you were inclined to believe that already. Hundreds of thousands makes it much, much harder to deny.

This is why I railed against those who uncritically repeated the official death number, even if they were anti-genocide. It’s why the Lancet publishing higher estimates mattered. It’s why I wrote that I figured the actual death toll was closer to half a million.

It’s also a good idea, generally, to not believe obvious bullshit.

Gaza was a genocide and the scale of the genocide matters. Trump now wants to ethnically cleanse those who remain, and who knows, he might let the Israelis restart the genocide if the ethnic cleansing plans fail.

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My Call Of Half A Million Gaza Deaths Appears Close + Trump’s Gaza Policy

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On February 6, 2025

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Trump has repeatedly said that he wants to move Palestinians out of Gaza and that there are about 1.7 to 1.8 million people to move. The pre-war population of Gaza was 2.3 million. About 100,000 Gazans managed to flee to the Sinai in Egypt (presumably a combination of bribes and sympathetic border guards who disagree with Sisi’s “let them die” policy.

So we’re looking at 400,000 to 500,000 deaths if Trumps figures are accurate. Yes, I know, Trump: but he’s been briefed and why use those numbers?

I wrote:

That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.

Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.

A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.

The idea that the death toll was around 50K was always ludicrous, given the constant bombing, lack of food, destruction of hospitals, deliberate murder of doctors and nurses, disease and lack of water.

I would assume the death rate was accelerating and if the genocide had gone on would have continued to accelerate: starvation, disease and lack of water tend to work that way.

Meanwhile, having stopped most of the bombing, Trump wants the US to take over Gaza and rebuild it as a resort, as best I can tell. His son in law, Jared Kushner, in February of 2024 said:

“Gaza’s waterfront property could be valuable… It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but I think from #Israel‘s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”

This requires either Jordan or Egypt to take the Palestinians, and neither of them want them, since they’re destabilizing and will also strain budgets. America can offer money, but America’s promises have become increasingly… erratic of late. Egypt, of course, already receives a ton of money from America in exchange for peace with Israel, but Palestinians being pushed into Egypt would violate the treaty which started those payments.

Bear in mind that Hamas is an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood, Sisi’s mortal enemies whom he couped in order to become “President.”

And the Palestinians may not all go voluntarily, so military force will be needed, presumably American boots on the ground.

This plan is very obviously ethnic cleansing, which is evil. It is, however, the lesser evil compared to Biden’s “keep them locked up and bomb and starve them all to death”, which would have presumably continued if Harris had one. Hard to say how this will play out, Trump might well let Israel go back to full on genocide, but so far it appears that Trump was the “lesser evil” at least as far as Gaza is concerned.

Egypt needs to be talking to the Chinese about aid, stat and figure out what they can offer the Chinese. Though a chance to poke a finger in Trump’s eye is likely appealing to Xi right about now. Trump has no respect for treaty obligations and will definitely threaten Egypt’s funding to force an acquiescence.

Meanwhile Turkey, Egypt and Iran all need to get off their asses and get nukes.

 

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Taking the Hit For Stopping Genocide

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On December 11, 2024

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I’ve noticed something interesting. Every time I write about what might be done to stop the Israeli genocide, actions which would require serious fighting, people say “well I understand whey they don’t want to do that because Israel will bomb the hell out of them.”

And that’s true (though not as true when it comes to Iran, which has plenty of effective AD.)

The issue here is that there’s a genocide going on. My estimate for casualties is over half a million, and other people are starting to make the same estimates. For the past two months Israel has basically let no food into Northern Gaza. The number at the end will probably be over a million dead.

So you’re either willing to do what it takes to stop it, or you aren’t. Both Hezbollah and Iran pulled their punches and let Israel set the tempo of engagement, choosing when and where to fight, instead of engaging it when Hamas still had a viable fighting force. Iran had the missile capacity to wreck Israel’s air defense and air bases. Instead they let their proxies fight alone, and that went very badly for them.

With the fall of Syria, well, it’s no longer possible to stop the genocide. Senior Iranian leadership told their juniors they were going to intervene, then didn’t.

At least half a million people are going to die because no one was willing to do what it took to stop it.

It’s unfair this was on Iran and Hezbollah. It’s an amazing indictment of every great power in the world, and the local Arab states that none of them did anything meaningful to stop a genocide and that many helped the genocide along.

As for Iran, they themselves have pointed out that one has to resist America and Israel wherever they attack, because the plan is to end up taking out Iran. Khameini, if he hasn’t already, needs to get his head out of his ass and build nukes. And if Russia and China want to keep Iran as part of their great alliance, they need to take action.

As for Hezbollah, well, they’re cut off from land resupply from Iran. Israel and America will get to them. Playing everything cautiously did not work.

America is falling, there is no question about that. But Empire’s rarely go quiet into the night. The Age of War and Revolution continues.

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America’s Responsibility For The Gaza Genocide

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On August 21, 2024

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Let’s keep it simple. From retired IDF general Yitzhak Brick:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Note the source here is a pro-Israeli one. Brick goes on to say:

Brick went on to explain that President Joe Biden’s demand that Israel permit “humanitarian aid” to enter Gaza means that he is demanding that Israel keep Hamas fully supplied with food, water and fuel.

His demand that Israel minimize Palestinian civilian casualties endangers IDF soldiers and renders the expansion of the ground offensive into central and southern Gaza, where the bulk of Hamas’s force is now located, almost impossible to carry out

So Brick isn’t putting responsibility on the US because he’s against the war or the atrocities. He’s all in.

The genocide is not possible without America’s support. That makes Biden and any politician who isn’t willing to stop sending Israel weapons and ammunition 100% a participant. If I supply the gun without which a murder cannot happen, knowing that it will be used for murder, I am directly responsible for the murder.

If Harris is not willing to cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition, she is not against the genocide, no matter how much she bewails the deaths.

And not just the deaths. It has become undeniable that Israel is systematically torturing and raping Palestinians, most of whom are non-combatants.

Palestine is the moral litmus test of the day, just as Iraq and South African apartheid were in their day. Eventually everyone will either pretend they were against it, or mea-culpa “how could I have known?”

But just as with Iraq, everyone who wanted to know, knew.

You’re either against genocide, rape and torture or you aren’t and there are no excuses which make any of it acceptable.

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Palestinian Deaths In the Gaza Conflict Are Probably Close To Half A Million

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On July 26, 2024

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It’s time to cut thru the crap on Gaza death tolls. Here’s a graph of official deaths:

You’ll notice that over time the curve is flattening. Now you might be stupid enough to dunk your eyes in Dettol for fun, and thus think “oh, I’m sure the rate of killing has decreased significantly”, but given that Israel is systematically funneling Palestinians into “humanitarian zones” which it then bombs the hell out of once there’s a good density, that seems unlikely.

There is also the fact that the Palestinian authorities which count deaths are not as effective as they were at the beginning of the genocide.

Psychologically one suspects Hamas does not want to admit how high the death toll is either.

So let’s eyeball that chart and extend the original line before the flattening. We’ll be conservative, and say it should be around sixty thousand.

Now, the Lancet came out with a study on what the actual death toll might be. Let’s look at their methodology.

Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death

to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.

So, the normal number of indirect deaths is three to fifteen times and the Lancet chose four. But Israel has restricted food and medical aid and systematically destroyed hospitals. Multiple countries cut off funding to the primary aide agency, UNWRA, and most Gazans can’t flee: there’s no way out of Gaza.

That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.

Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.

A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.

Whatever the death toll is it will be closer to half a million than to forty thousand.

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The Absurdity of “Trump Is Worse” Arguments Aimed At American Palestinians

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On July 23, 2024

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Every time one mentions that Biden has committed genocide, someone says “But Trump will be worse!”

Well, here’s your answer:

If you don’t get this something is wrong with your ability to put yourself in other people’s shoes.

And yes. it is on Biden and Democrats:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the US. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Also, the idea of “holding them accountable after they’re elected” is almost entirely bullshit. It rarely works. Pre-election is your point of maximum leverage, not after. Especially if a politician is in power, make them do something for you before you vote for them.

But, basically, “Democrats killed your family, but Trump will be as bad or worse” isn’t going to convince people whose families Biden killed to vote Democratic.

If you think it will, something is wrong with you.

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How To Deal With Student Protest Camps (FDR Edition)

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On April 30, 2024

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Students in America and increasingly across the world are demonstrating against the Gaza genocide. They’re right to do so, opposing a genocide is never the wrong thing to do.

The reaction of campus and civil authorities has been predictable. Send in the cops, who violently disperse the camps, similar to how they have decided homeless people aren’t allowed to live anywhere. This video, of a professor who is the wife of the Dean of admissions (and who was not part of the protest) makes the point.

Police, of course, are police because they like hurting people, with vanishingly few exceptions. Any excuse is enough of an excuse for most of them. The Professor found out how much her “privilege” really matters.

What’s interesting about all of this is how stupid it is. Attacking the protestors is, as those of us who’ve been around for many protest cycles know, not going to stop them. It’s the beginning of the cycle of protest, not the end, and it drives news. In some ways it’s a victory for the protestors’ cause.

In 1932 a large group of Great War veterans went to Washington D.C and set up a camp. They wanted their bonuses for WWI paid early, because it was the Great Depression and they needed them. Hoover, still President, sent in the Army, lead by Douglas MacArthur (and opposed by Eisenhower) and burn the camp. FDR, who actually opposed paying the bonus because he felt it helped one group without helping all, said that the scenes of brutality had just elected him.

Burning Down The Bonus Army

The Bonus Army didn’t give up, and when Roosevelt took power, he took a very different tack: he sent his main political advisor, Louis Howe, and his wife. Instead of attacking the encampment, they arranged for them to have three meals a day and a clean encampment, and FDR arranged for younger veterans to receive jobs with the Civilian Conservation Corp.

Four years later, over FDR’s veto, Congress gave the Bonus army their bonus.

The point here is that FDR essentially de-fanged people he opposed by treating them kindly. Violence produces opposition and even if it “works” it makes people hate you and harden their positions.

The protestors are right about Gaza, of course, and right that the US shouldn’t be helping commit a genocide. But even if you oppose them, the correct thing to do is to treat them kindly unless they truly become violent or massively disruptive (and even then, give them rope.)

The response of university administrators is clearly emotionally driven: they believe in Israel’s genocide and want it to continue and are offended and ashamed by students who point out the evil of what they are doing. If they weren’t emotionally compromised by their commitment to genocide, they’d be a lot more sensible, even if they disagree with the protestors.

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Many Politicians Support Israeli Genocide Because They’re Being Blackmailed

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On November 22, 2023

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The majority in most nations don’t support Israel’s genocidal bombing in Gaza but politicians by huge majorities do, and those who support Palestinians find themselves under constant attack.

Explanations for this tend to concentrate on how much money politicians receive from Israel supporters.

But there’s another reason for their support. Many of them are being blackmailed. The Epstein operation is instructive:

“What people don’t know is that every room in every one of those homes had cameras.

“One would ask, why would you have cameras in every single room? Well, as part of our investigation, we’ve established that Epstein had another room next to where all those cameras fed into, and there were industrial-sized Xerox machines.

“So whatever was taking place inside the four walls of his homes, he was recording it, and printing it out, and keeping DVDs.”

…

“As part of our investigation, we spoke to Ari Ben-Menashe, who is a former Israeli spy,” Howard said.

“He said, on the record, unequivocally, that Jeffrey Epstein was working for Israeli intelligence operations, the Mossad, and running a classic honey trap operation: that is, lure people inside, record their activities, and use it to blackmail them.

“This person was also the handler of Jeffrey Epstein’s best friend and ex-girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell.

A (very) partial list of those who visited Epstein’s includes:

  • Donald J. Trump
  • Bill Clinton
  • Kevin Spacey
  • Chris Tucker
  • Bill Gates
  • Prince Andrew
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  • Violinist Itzhak Perlman
  • U.S. Sen. John Glenn
  • Former Senate majority leader George Mitchell

If you want someone to do what you say, both carrot and stick are best. “If you cooperate we’ll reward you. If you don’t, we’ll destroy you.”

(This is a reader supported Blog. Your subscriptions and donations make it possible for me to continue writing, and this is my annual fundraiser, which will determine how much I write next year. Please subscribe or donate if you can.)

The reason that pedophilia accusations get so much traction in certain circles is that, well, there is a lot of underage and coerced sex among our leaders. It’s one of the perks of being powerful: you can do things which ordinary people are forbidden. Even if you’re not massively into whatever that thing is, it’s a rush to break rules and get away with it.

Epstein was protected, the first time he was charged, he was given a ridiculous plea deal. When the protection later failed, he committed “suicide”, and it just happened the cameras were off when he did so.

Yeah. Suicide.

So I’m quite sure that the reason a lot of politicians, CEOs and important or famous people either support Israel or keep their mouths shut is that Israel has blackmail material on them. I’d be rather surprised if Epstein was the only operative, he was just the one who was caught.

It’s impossible to keep up with just how vile and compromised many, if not most of our leaders are.

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