Ian Welsh

The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tag: Gaza Genocide

America’s Responsibility For The Gaza Genocide

By

On August 21, 2024

Comments

Let’s keep it simple. From retired IDF geneneral Yitzhak Brick:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Note the source here is a pro-Israeli one. Brick goes on to say:

Brick went on to explain that President Joe Biden’s demand that Israel permit “humanitarian aid” to enter Gaza means that he is demanding that Israel keep Hamas fully supplied with food, water and fuel.

His demand that Israel minimize Palestinian civilian casualties endangers IDF soldiers and renders the expansion of the ground offensive into central and southern Gaza, where the bulk of Hamas’s force is now located, almost impossible to carry out

So Brick isn’t putting responsibility on the US because he’s against the war or the atrocities. He’s all in.

The genocide is not possible without America’s support. That makes Biden and any politician who isn’t willing to stop sending Israel weapons and ammunition 100% a participant. If I supply the gun without which a murder cannot happen, knowing that it will be used for murder, I am directly responsible for the murder.

If Harris is not willing to cut off the supply of weapons and ammunition, she is not against the genocide, no matter how much she bewails the deaths.

And not just the deaths. It has become undeniable that Israel is systematically torturing and raping Palestinians, most of whom are non-combatants.

Palestine is the moral litmus test of the day, just as Iraq and South African apartheid were in their day. Eventually everyone will either pretend they were against it, or mea-culpa “how could I have known?”

But just as with Iraq, everyone who wanted to know, knew.

You’re either against genocide, rape and torture or you aren’t and there are no excuses which make any of it acceptable.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

Palestinian Deaths In the Gaza Conflict Are Probably Close To Half A Million

By

On July 26, 2024

Comments

It’s time to cut thru the crap on Gaza death tolls. Here’s a graph of official deaths:

You’ll notice that over time the curve is flattening. Now you might be stupid enough to dunk your eyes in Dettol for fun, and thus think “oh, I’m sure the rate of killing has decreased significantly”, but given that Israel is systematically funneling Palestinians into “humanitarian zones” which it then bombs the hell out of once there’s a good density, that seems unlikely.

There is also the fact that the Palestinian authorities which count deaths are not as effective as they were at the beginning of the genocide.

Psychologically one suspects Hamas does not want to admit how high the death toll is either.

So let’s eyeball that chart and extend the original line before the flattening. We’ll be conservative, and say it should be around sixty thousand.

Now, the Lancet came out with a study on what the actual death toll might be. Let’s look at their methodology.

Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population’s inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.

In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death

to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.

So, the normal number of indirect deaths is three to fifteen times and the Lancet chose four. But Israel has restricted food and medical aid and systematically destroyed hospitals. Multiple countries cut off funding to the primary aide agency, UNWRA, and most Gazans can’t flee: there’s no way out of Gaza.

That is to say that the indirect death multiplier is almost certainly higher than average in Gaza. So let’s assume just slightly higher than average: an eight times multiplier.

Now do the math 8*60,000=480,000.

A reasonable estimate of the death toll in Gaza is thus 480,000 people. Almost half a million and about seventeen percent of the pre-war population.

Whatever the death toll is it will be closer to half a million than to forty thousand.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

The Absurdity of “Trump Is Worse” Arguments Aimed At American Palestinians

By

On July 23, 2024

Comments

Every time one mentions that Biden has committed genocide, someone says “But Trump will be worse!”

Well, here’s your answer:

If you don’t get this something is wrong with your ability to put yourself in other people’s shoes.

And yes. it is on Biden and Democrats:

“All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the US. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”

Also, the idea of “holding them accountable after they’re elected” is almost entirely bullshit. It rarely works. Pre-election is your point of maximum leverage, not after. Especially if a politician is in power, make them do something for you before you vote for them.

But, basically, “Democrats killed your family, but Trump will be as bad or worse” isn’t going to convince people whose families Biden killed to vote Democratic.

If you think it will, something is wrong with you.

My writing happens because readers donate or subscribe. If you value that writing, and you can afford to, please support it.

How To Deal With Student Protest Camps (FDR Edition)

By

On April 30, 2024

Comments

Students in America and increasingly across the world are demonstrating against the Gaza genocide. They’re right to do so, opposing a genocide is never the wrong thing to do.

The reaction of campus and civil authorities has been predictable. Send in the cops, who violently disperse the camps, similar to how they have decided homeless people aren’t allowed to live anywhere. This video, of a professor who is the wife of the Dean of admissions (and who was not part of the protest) makes the point.

Police, of course, are police because they like hurting people, with vanishingly few exceptions. Any excuse is enough of an excuse for most of them. The Professor found out how much her “privilege” really matters.

What’s interesting about all of this is how stupid it is. Attacking the protestors is, as those of us who’ve been around for many protest cycles know, not going to stop them. It’s the beginning of the cycle of protest, not the end, and it drives news. In some ways it’s a victory for the protestors’ cause.

In 1932 a large group of Great War veterans went to Washington D.C and set up a camp. They wanted their bonuses for WWI paid early, because it was the Great Depression and they needed them. Hoover, still President, sent in the Army, lead by Douglas MacArthur (and opposed by Eisenhower) and burn the camp. FDR, who actually opposed paying the bonus because he felt it helped one group without helping all, said that the scenes of brutality had just elected him.

Burning Down The Bonus Army

The Bonus Army didn’t give up, and when Roosevelt took power, he took a very different tack: he sent his main political advisor, Louis Howe, and his wife. Instead of attacking the encampment, they arranged for them to have three meals a day and a clean encampment, and FDR arranged for younger veterans to receive jobs with the Civilian Conservation Corp.

Four years later, over FDR’s veto, Congress gave the Bonus army their bonus.

The point here is that FDR essentially de-fanged people he opposed by treating them kindly. Violence produces opposition and even if it “works” it makes people hate you and harden their positions.

The protestors are right about Gaza, of course, and right that the US shouldn’t be helping commit a genocide. But even if you oppose them, the correct thing to do is to treat them kindly unless they truly become violent or massively disruptive (and even then, give them rope.)

The response of university administrators is clearly emotionally driven: they believe in Israel’s genocide and want it to continue and are offended and ashamed by students who point out the evil of what they are doing. If they weren’t emotionally compromised by their commitment to genocide, they’d be a lot more sensible, even if they disagree with the protestors.

You get what you support. If you like my writing, please SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Many Politicians Support Israeli Genocide Because They’re Being Blackmailed

By

On November 22, 2023

Comments

The majority in most nations don’t support Israel’s genocidal bombing in Gaza but politicians by huge majorities do, and those who support Palestinians find themselves under constant attack.

Explanations for this tend to concentrate on how much money politicians receive from Israel supporters.

But there’s another reason for their support. Many of them are being blackmailed. The Epstein operation is instructive:

“What people don’t know is that every room in every one of those homes had cameras.

“One would ask, why would you have cameras in every single room? Well, as part of our investigation, we’ve established that Epstein had another room next to where all those cameras fed into, and there were industrial-sized Xerox machines.

“So whatever was taking place inside the four walls of his homes, he was recording it, and printing it out, and keeping DVDs.”

…

“As part of our investigation, we spoke to Ari Ben-Menashe, who is a former Israeli spy,” Howard said.

“He said, on the record, unequivocally, that Jeffrey Epstein was working for Israeli intelligence operations, the Mossad, and running a classic honey trap operation: that is, lure people inside, record their activities, and use it to blackmail them.

“This person was also the handler of Jeffrey Epstein’s best friend and ex-girlfriend, Ghislaine Maxwell.

A (very) partial list of those who visited Epstein’s includes:

  • Donald J. Trump
  • Bill Clinton
  • Kevin Spacey
  • Chris Tucker
  • Bill Gates
  • Prince Andrew
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
  • Violinist Itzhak Perlman
  • U.S. Sen. John Glenn
  • Former Senate majority leader George Mitchell

If you want someone to do what you say, both carrot and stick are best. “If you cooperate we’ll reward you. If you don’t, we’ll destroy you.”

(This is a reader supported Blog. Your subscriptions and donations make it possible for me to continue writing, and this is my annual fundraiser, which will determine how much I write next year. Please subscribe or donate if you can.)

The reason that pedophilia accusations get so much traction in certain circles is that, well, there is a lot of underage and coerced sex among our leaders. It’s one of the perks of being powerful: you can do things which ordinary people are forbidden. Even if you’re not massively into whatever that thing is, it’s a rush to break rules and get away with it.

Epstein was protected, the first time he was charged, he was given a ridiculous plea deal. When the protection later failed, he committed “suicide”, and it just happened the cameras were off when he did so.

Yeah. Suicide.

So I’m quite sure that the reason a lot of politicians, CEOs and important or famous people either support Israel or keep their mouths shut is that Israel has blackmail material on them. I’d be rather surprised if Epstein was the only operative, he was just the one who was caught.

It’s impossible to keep up with just how vile and compromised many, if not most of our leaders are.

SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE

Enough! (Palestine)

By

On November 6, 2023

Comments

OK. Let’s lay this out.

Israel is genociding Palestinians in Gaza. It has killed more civilians in three weeks than Ukraine and Russia have all war. Over 60% of casualties are children and women. They are deliberately flattening as many residential buildings as possible. They have bombed multiple hospitals, every single university and just hit the remaining water facility, while Palestinians have almost no water to drink.

Their end-goal is to force whoever survives into Egypt.

The US, may their empire collapse now, is sheep-dogging the Israeli genocide.

Let me translate this.

America. “If Iran or Hezbollah try to stop the Israeli genocide of Palestinians, we will fuck up Iran and Lebanon to make sure Israel can keep mass-murdering civilians.”

Fuck you. Fuck you. Fuck you.

Not 5% of people in political power aren’t, functionally, psychopathic mass murderers, any chance they can get.

I will not forget anyone who was for this. Anyone. At best every single person who had any power and supported this, including Justin Trudeau, Biden, etc… need to go to jail for the rest of their lives. All their wealth should be taken and given to their victims.

This has always been true, by the way. Our societies have been run by absolute scum, basically forever. Our system does not work. It promotes to the top of both private and public power the worst people in the world, people who make Jeffrey Dahmer look like a boy-scout. If their victim counts were as low as Dahmer’s, we’d live in a comparative paradise.

We need to figure out a better way to run our societies and don’t even start with “but democracy”. Our form of democracy is a complete failure, and those still alive in even 25 years will be entirely clear about that.

I don’t imagine Trump being any better (remember how he supported Israel), but I’ll never endorse Genocide Joe or any Democrat or Republican who voted to help Israel.

Enough.

Donors and subscribers make it possible for me to write, so if you value my writing, please DONATE or SUBSCRIBE

Powered by WordPress & Theme by Anders Norén