Let’s start with this: Ukraine is losing the war, and the longer it goes on the worse the peace deal will be. I absolutely agree with Trump that there needs to be a peace deal, and soon.
But the rhetoric coming out of the Trump administration and its proxies suggests that America owes Ukraine nothing, and that indeed, Ukraine owes America for all its support. This sounds reasonable, on the face of it, but only if you don’t know any history.
Let’s start with the 2014 Maidan protests which overthrew the Ukrainian government. They were a color revolution, heavily supported by the Americans and Europeans. Say what you will about Yanukovych, he was the elected President. There’s decent evidence that the sniper massacre was done by Maidan itself (see this academic study), and, post-coup, Ukraine was essentially run by Victoria Nuland.
The Maidan coup came in response to Yanukovych’s decision to accept Russia’s aid package instead of the West’s. This was the correct decision: Russia offered more money and aid with less strings, while the Western aid came with IMF restructuring. If you know anything about the IMF you know that their restructuring is always painful, and it doesn’t improve host nations economies. It does, however, increase inequality, and opens up the economy so foreigners can buy in.
Back in 2008 there was a brief Georgian/Russian war. Georgia had regions which were ethnically Russian, and they were de-facto independent, and recognized as such by Russia. When Georgia invaded South Ossetia, Russia counter-invaded. At the time, I wrote an article for FireDogLake predicting the next Russian war would be over Crimea and Sevastopol. Sevastopol is Russia’s main Black Sea port, and a Russian “hero city,” — much beloved. Ukraine leased it to Russia, and if Ukraine ever moved to kick the Russians out I predicted the Russians would go to war rather than comply.
Put simply, Sevastopol was and is a key Russia interest.
After the coup, Ukraine threatened to end the Russian lease. Russia invaded Crimea, and took it over. (Don’t cry too much, most Crimeans, except the Tatars, would much rather be Russian). Meanwhile, the East of Ukraine went into revolt, because they are mostly, actually Russian and had supported the ousted President. A small war was fought over that. The Russians intervened, routed the Ukrainians, and they set up a peace deal called the Minsk accord, which basically gave Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomy.
Notice that without the coup, which was backed by the US, there would have been no 2014 war between Ukraine and Russia, no loss of Crimea, or and no semi-independence for the far East of Ukraine.
The coup was anti-democratic, overthrowing a legitimately elected government which was accepting the best deal offered. (And folks, I’ve studied IMF deals. They are always bad. Always.)
Of course, having lost a war and territory, Ukraine now becomes very anti-Russia, at least in the West of the country. Understandable. Then there’s a HUGE military buildup. And, although Minsk was sold as the end of the matter, it was negotiated in bad faith by the West. This has been confirmed:
The West didn’t want peace, it wanted a chance to build up the Ukrainian military for the next round.
That next round came after Ukraine spent a lot of time shelling the hell out of Luhansk and Donetsk; this was a violation of the Minsk agreement. Then Ukraine and NATO started talking about Ukraine joining NATO, which Russia had made clear was a red line.
Now here’s the thing: Absent the US backed Maidan coup, there would be no Ukrainian war. It wouldn’t have happened. Additionally, absent the huge build up of the Ukranian military, again US- and EU-backed, there would have been no war, because Ukraine wouldn’t have risked it.
The US used Ukraine in a proxy war, after an anti-democratic coup. The West genuinely believed that sanctions would break Russia and allow Ukraine to win the war, and hoped that the loss would cause a break-up of Russia. Unfortunately for them, China needed Russia as an ally, and kept the Russian economy running, and it is Europe that was damaged by the sanctions, while Russia’s economy is, overall, booming.
Back near the start of the war, a peace offer was on the table, far more generous than anything Ukraine can expect now. Boris Johnson, Britain’s Prime Minister, with US support, told Zelensky not to take it — NATO would back him to the hilt, and Zelensky could win the war.
Fast forward: Ukraine is losing the war. On a map, Russian gains over the last year aren’t all that large, but the Ukrainian army is running out of manpower, and is being pushed past its line of prepared defenses. When the Ukrainian army breaks, and it will, the Russians will start making huge advances very quickly.
Now, Trump comes in, and acts as if America had nothing to do with all this and, further, acts like Ukraine has taken advantage of American generosity instead of Ukraine being an American proxy, which has been devastated after an American coup pushed it into a war with a much stronger country and America and the UK told Ukraine not to take a better peace deal.
Trump’s attempting to get Ukrainian minerals in “repayment” for America pushing Ukraine into a war it couldn’t win, and is not even offering security guarantees in exchange. I loathe Zelensky, but he’s right to reject this one-sided “deal.”
This is despicable. This is honorless. The very least Ukraine deserves from America is a sincere effort to cut, for Ukraine, the best peace deal they can get.
Now Zelensky is delusional. Threats to fight on and a refusal to negotiate are insane. Russia’s BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement) is to just continue the war, win it, and impose an unconditional surrender. Think Japan and Germany at the end of World War II.
But American negotiation seems to be about making the best deal for America, not for Ukraine.
My suggestion would be that Zelensky ask the Chinese to host negotiations. Yes, they’re Russia’s ally, BUT they’ve always supported a peace deal, and more importantly, they’re the only nation which really does have leverage over Russia; without China, Russia cannot survive economically. And, unlike America, China has said it is willing to put peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia is NOT going to target Chinese troops.
Further, if China promises to rebuild Ukraine, it will do so, and do so quickly and competently. The Chinese are the best in the world at building roads, railways, ports, power plants, and all other types of infrastructure.
Ukraine’s government was effectively controlled by the West, and pushed into a war it couldn’t win. They need to end their Western alliance, and cut the best deal they can get. That means, especially, not letting Trump negotiate, because he’s not negotiating for them, but for America.
It’s a bad hand, an awful one. But it’s the hand Ukraine has to play.
As for American claims that Ukraine used them, rather the other way around, they are without merit and beyond dishonorable.
Let’s give Kissinger the final word:
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
