The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Tales of Canadian Healthcare and Potential Russia/US War in Syria

So, posting has been, errr, non-existent for a bit as I’ve been dealing with some (probably minor) healthcare issues.

Earlier this week, I had exploratory surgery and, later, an MRI. The total time for the exploratory surgery (entering the hospital to leaving) was about five hours. The total time for the MRI was two hours, of which I spent 45 minutes semi-dozing inside the machine.

Total price? $20 for some pain killers to take home with me after the day-surgery. Oxycodone (the generic form of Oxycontin), which is the first time I’ve had it (I’ve had plenty of morphine and codeine at various points), and, ummm, I can see why a lot of people get addicted.

Generally speaking the nurses, doctors, techs, and orderlies were all polite and efficient. The nurses and doctors at the day surgery stood out as particularly solicitous, which I appreciated. I haven’t always had the best experience with surgery (understatement alert), so getting the feeling that they cared and were competent was nice.

Contrary to the propaganda, all of this was relatively expeditious. I don’t have an urgent problem, so the process hasn’t been super fast, but it hasn’t been slow, either.

And this is Canadian healthcare.

Regular posting should resume soon.

Idlib province in Syria is a potential flashpoint between the US and Syria/Russia. The Syrians want to clear up the Al-Qaeda subsidiary there, and the Americans want to pretend they aren’t Al-Qaeda, and have been saber rattling and stating that Assad is going to attack chemically, and the US will retaliate.

Lots of stupid here, and a small–but real–chance of starting something nasty between the US and Russia, which the US might well lose, actually, since the US has fallen behind both on missiles and missile defense technology.

Let’s hope not. Not getting into a war in Syria with Russia was Trump’s main selling point, but he seems to have since become deranged about Syria’s Iran ties, because the US’s foreign policy, apparently, is about doing what Saudi Arabia and Israel want, not what is good for the US.

Sigh.


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57 Comments

  1. Webstir

    Not jealous that you’re dealing with health issues, Ian. But, as I was reading, I must admit to feeling some healthcare system jealousy. Sigh, indeed.

    As to Idlib:
    “It was around this time that I realised the purpose of the Syrian army’s presence in this sector. Not, I suspect, for an offensive against Idlib, rather to fight off opposition fighters if they were under air bombardment and tried to escape west and cross the walled Turkish border. If there is to be a last battle, Syria’s armed enemies are not supposed to slip away this time – unless, of course, the Russians and the Iranians and the Turks – basking in the aftermath of the only slightly successful Tehran talks last week – can still work out a peaceful settlement.”
    Robert Fisk – Sept. 10

    That is, unless as you suggest, Bolton and Co. try some hanky panky.

  2. someofparts

    Hope you will be feeling better soon. Wish I were a neighbor so I could bring snacks or run errands for you.

  3. Tom

    Idlib has calmed down, Turkey made it clear by deploying large amounts of Armor, Air Defense Missiles, and Artillery Platforms, that it will fight and Putin backed down.

    Erdogan and Putin will meet in Sochi on Monday.

    As for HTS which you are referring to, they represent less than 10% of the Rebel Groups Manpower in Idlib and are a mere pretext to attack the FSA Units backed by Turkey which have been working to sideline HTS and induce defections from its rank and file members for months now. Mainly by targeted assassinations by Turkish MIT and cash bribes. The last thing Turkey wants is all out warfare in Idlib as 3 million civilians will get caught in the crossfire.

    As for Putin, he can’t generate enough Combat Power due to logistics and the Syrian Military is fought out, Hezbollah can’t send more troops, and Iran is trying to secure Iraq which is on the verge of an Intra-Shiite Civil War in Basra and seeing a resurgent ISIS attacking the main highways.

    Back to the Syrian Government, as stated its regular forces are fought out with mayhaps 20,000 effectives who can be relied upon. The bulk of his forces are sectarian militias who are just as likely to fight each other as Bashar’s enemies and there has been recent in-fighting lately as well as Assad can’t pay them. Assad has also lost the majority of his Generals who were actually competent.

    Once Turkey weighed in and made it clear it would enforce an Idlib Red-Line with Military Force, Putin had no choice but to back down as Turkey can cut its access through the Bosporus and throw more combat power into Syria more rapidly than he can. That would be disastrous to the Soviet Black Sea Fleet which is currently deployed off of Syria.

    Syria is nice to have, but it is not a vital interest like Ukraine which Putin will go to war with NATO over.

  4. Hugh

    Good to hear from you and hope those issues stay minor. It is one of the great crimes perpetrated by our powers that be that here in the US, healthcare is not considered a right.

  5. Robotpliers

    I have decent health insurance here in the US, and just showing up to the ER is a $175 co-pay.

  6. jrkrideau

    @ Robotpliers

    I am from the same province as Ian, I believe. I have had cataract surgery on both eyes over the last few years. Total cost to me, probably 30 dollars for eye-drops for both eyes for post-operative care.

    Our health care system definitely could be better. For instance it does not cover dental care but compared to what I hear of the horrors below the border it is pretty good.

    I have feeling that our system reduces overall health care expenditures and costs to the economy since you can see a doctor before the health problem becomes drastic. That reminds me, I must check when my doctor’s clinic is having its (free to me) flu shot clinic.

  7. someofparts

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-drug-spread-pricing/?srnd=premium

    Yachts and private planes are easy targets for starters.

  8. Ché Pasa

    Better outcomes and reasonable costs should be prime objectives of US health care, but they’re not. In fact, just the opposite often seems to be the case.

    Ian is lucky to live in a country that — at least for now — has and maintains a sane universal health
    care system. Let’s hope his condition improves.

  9. “Insurance”, the profit of the potential of another’s pain, like usury, the profit of another’s pain, is the problem. It’s pretty damn simple: eliminate “insurance” from the equation, solve the problem.

  10. Ché Pasa

    As for war with Russia over Syria, who knows? I’ve always felt it was more likely Trump and His Generals would precipitate such a thing than Hillary would, but at this point it’s anybody’s guess. The likeliest precipitator in my view is Israel. Alternatively, Saudi Arabia.

    The question we can’t answer is what Russia would do. Recall that some hundreds of Russian troops/auxiliaries/mercenaries were apparently slaughtered by American forces in Syria this year alone, and as far as we know, Russia took no retaliatory action.

    If there were other engagements in Syria — say with Israel or Saudi –would there be Russian retaliation? Maybe. Maybe not.

    Even at the height of the hysteria over “Hillary will start WWIII!!!!!!!” the fact was that no matter what she would do in Syria (or rather order done), there would be no “WWIII” without Russia’s participation, and so far, it looks like the Kremlin does not want to play this game. At all.

    They have other geese to cook, eh?

  11. Charlie

    Al Qaeda asks their flags not be raised to fool the assembled media.

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/09/syria-al-qaeda-and-turkey-produce-peaceful-civilians-propaganda-clips.html

    On the health care note, I was given the Oxycodone/Codeine cocktail for a dislocated elbow around 2010. Pretty strong stuff, but I was lucky to not get addicted.

  12. S Brennan

    Sorry to hear Ian;

    On the subject, I have a $283,864.52 sitting on my desk for 10 days in the hospital.

    I checked myself out against Dr.’s wishes so he refused to write a script for follow-up antibiotics, nor would he allow any other physician to write a script for me, thus necessitating going to another Dr immediately after leaving the hospital.

    Treatment consisted of IV antibiotics, no outpatient treatment was possible according to my Dr., meaning, that except for the first two days where I needed IV’s for fluid loss, I was in the hospital solely for 3 injections a day.

    I have ACA compliant insurance purchased through my 2nd tier contract employer. I say again, the insurance is ACA compliant…for all those fools out there that bought into Obama’s bullshit. There are so many holes in the coverage that the hospital considers it non-coverage.

    If you ave a gold plated policy from employer, or fall below the poverty line and can get medicaid [which is much better than any independent policy I have ever had] you don’t know jack about America’s medical system.

  13. highrpm

    hugh,
    add to those great crimes governments who don’t provide free/ near-free post secondary education through bachelor’s to their youth. set an age limit and grade points that prevent takers from abusing the priviledge. countries that don’t invest in their youth deserve the trash heap.

  14. nihil obstet

    I hope your health problems go away.

    Knowing that our political system is sinking deeper into corruption, I still can’t figure out why the U.S. has such a sadistic medical industry. If Clinton had produced a decent bill in the early 90s, it might or might not have been passed, but the publicity surrounding it would have started us towards something better. And a majority of the public would have supported it. Instead, the whole exercise turned into a propaganda exercise of “We have the best health care system in the world. Anything we do will make it worse.” It’s beyond me why enough people keep believing that to make it safe for politicians to serve the medical profiteers.

  15. Mike Hoskins

    Geez Ian. I’ve been following your site since I stumbled on it about 4 years ago. I only bookmark the good ones.
    I’m starting to get a perception of Stephen Hawking typing out his mind blowing thoughts.
    That’s supposed to be satire. Keep up addressing the pain around us even though you are in some.

  16. different clue

    Checking the “Ian Welsh–Image Results” link . . . I see that the image of Mustapha Kemal is still right there in the second row . . . right next to the image of Donald Trump. What does it all mean?
    ( Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be a more appropriate image to pair with Donald Trump but whatever).

    One hopes the Globalonial NeoLiberals don’t try to destroy the Canadian Healthcare System to prevent it from being a standing reproach to and visibly better model than the US Healthcare System.
    Because even though Obamacare was meant to poison the well against even thinking about Health Care System Design for the next several decades, Health Care may yet break out of its cage and crawl back onto the table in the next few years.

    About Trump and his Generals, I think the drift of America’s Syria policy back into the Clintonite pro-Jihad toilet is about “his Generals” and ” his John Bolton” capturing and redirecting ” their Trump” on this matter. It is the “Iran” which helps to do it. Trump rejects the Iran Agreement because he hates Obama for racial reasons and because Obama mocked Trump at a White House Correspondents Dinner. Since “Iran” is one of Obama’s few genuine accomplishments, Trump wants to erase it because he hates seeing Obama get any credit for achieving something good. And “his Generals” have cherished a deep hatred for Iran for these many decades, and want to get revenge
    for The Embassy, the Khobar Towers, the shaped charge explosives used against US soldiers in Iraq, and etc. It goes deeper than just ” Israel” and “Saudi Arabia”.

    I first read the “racial animus” theory in a comment on Naked Capitalism. I will claim, hopefully with some basis, to have long thought that “Trump’s Generals” were long motivated by dreams of vengeance against Iran and would use their positions to seek it.

    Colonel Lang at Sic Semper Tyrannis offers his theory as to Trump’s pre-occupation with Iran and the Iran Deal and why it will poison Trump’s whole attitude to Syria . . . such that Trump will now support the Global Axis of Jihad ( GAJ) against the Coalition Of Lawful Authority ( COLA), even though every thinking person with any more sense than God gave an ashtray knows that things go better with COLA.

    Fellow commenter Tom predicts that Russia/Assad/etc. will in the end not invade Idlib to totally take it. Colonel Pat Lang predicts that the COLA ( Coalition Of Lawful Authority) WILL in the end invade Idlib to totally take it. One of those predictions will be right, and one of them will be wrong. Here is the link to Colonel Lang’s prediction.
    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/09/fukus-turkey-are-now-al-qaidas-allies-editorial.html

    By the way, I always knew that fellow commenter Che Pasa considered Trump more worser than he considered Clinton. He provides the proof of that in his comment upthread. I will quote the relevant words here . . . “As for war with Russia over Syria, who knows? I’ve always felt it was more likely Trump and His Generals would precipitate such a thing than Hillary would, but at this point it’s anybody’s guess. The likeliest precipitator in my view is Israel. Alternatively, Saudi Arabia.”

    I also always knew that fellow commenter Che Pasa was pro-Clinton, perhaps an outright Clintonite. He provides the proof of that in his comment upthread. I will quote the relevant words here . . .” Even at the height of the hysteria over “Hillary will start WWIII!!!!!!!” . . . ” I remember quite a few analysts over at Sic Semper Tyrannis, including Colonel Lang himself, presenting analysis to that effect regarding Hillary, and I don’t remember any tone of hysteria over at SST. Che Pasa’s strained accusation of hysteria on the part of Hillary-sceptics is actually his own projection of his own hysteria over the “Coronationus Interruptus” of his beloved Queen Hillary.

  17. someofparts

    well, way off topic, here’s something wonderful –

    https://boingboing.net/2018/09/14/8-year-old-upstages-the-harlem.html

  18. Hugh

    Much as I often disagree with Tom, this time I agree in general with his assessment. Assad wants to secure complete control of the highway between Damascus and Aleppo which passes through Idlib province. But as Tom notes, Syrian ground forces are a pretty punk affair. I see this as more of an exercise to put pressure on Turkey, but minus a deal between Turkey and Russia, I don’t see much changing.

  19. Hugh

    Re Clinton, she is a known quantity. She is very anti-Russian, but we know her grift. Trump is pro-Russian but far more erratic. As an avatar of the Establishment, Clinton would confront Russia because this is the Establishment position, but she would also very likely stop short of war because that too is the Establishment position. With Trump, the main danger is that he would stumble into a conflict with Russia. However, he would face pushback from the Pentagon to keep him from doing this –as a stumble. If the Russians tried to move against American troops as they did several months ago, the Pentagon would have no problems taking the Russians out as they did then. And the Russians would eat it, however much they disliked it, as they did then.

  20. barrisj

    Anyone know if Sterling Newberry is still blogging? I went to his old site, but it was taken down. Ah, yes, all the old Agonistas, where are they now?

  21. S Brennan

    “the Pentagon would have no problems taking the Russians out as they did then. And the Russians would eat it, however much they disliked it, as they did then.”

    The young armchair General speaks the “logic” that lost Athens it’s empire in Syracuse. Hugh, when you reply, as surely you will, remind everybody how many years of Military service you have, I am sure then…they’ll understand your over-confidence in military matters. Spoiler alert folks, the number is 0.

  22. Ian Welsh

    Assuming the Russians will eat it is a dangerous bet. The odds are good, but if you lose, you lose it all.

  23. someofparts

    War of any sort seems like playing on terms the U.S. would prefer. A large war against any foreign power would invigorate the economy and unify the citizenry. Better to quietly keep building your economies, developing your technologies and expanding your alliances. When the U.S. finally goes broke and breaks up into civil war, Eurasia will have too much wealth and technical superiority to be threatened.

  24. Tom

    With regards to the Wagner Attack on an SDF position you are all referring to.

    That was a PMC outside of the Russian Military. It was a disposable unit composed of ethnic minorities who would otherwise be fighting the Russian Military as insurgents. Putin cares shit about their fate, their entire attack was to see if America would defend the SDF and they did, so Putin cancelled follow up operations.

    As for Idlib, fighting is looking less and less likely as Turkey now has a full Armored Corps in that Pocket with more assets coming, and the Rebels are now well supplied with TOWs, MANPADs, and ammunition. In addition all the bridges and main roads into the pocket have been destroyed and massive trench works built.

    Putin doesn’t have the means to match that buildup due to sheer logistics.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/mideast/2018/09/14/the-forgotten-war-of-the-21st-century-yemenis-living-off-leaves-to-fight-famine

    Yemen is dying, this is on top of the same situation playing out in Gaza which is now totally cut off from aid by Trump.

    And of course Bolton says the US will protect Israel from the ICC which the PLO has asked to intervene after signing the Rome Statute.

    Bolton should be at the top of the list on the ICC’s Afghanistan Investigation for Prosecution of the torture programs Bolton helped set up.

  25. Tom W Harris

    Naked Capitalism thread

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/03/yanis-varoufakis-ukraine-three-awkward-questions-western-liberals-comment-eus-role.html

    displays Hugh’s strongly anti-Russian views on the Ukraine situation.

  26. Hugh

    I cite what has actually happened and as usual S Brennan rails against reality because it refuses to conform to his expectations.

  27. Willy

    The American PTB doesn’t fight for honorable causes any more. Whether it’s warfare or medical services, the current American Way usually involves fighting for the non-competitive extraction of cash from whatever soft target is available. Never ending wars and never ending illnesses brings in easy coin. But at least this behavior is still being wrapped in some kind of “honorable cause” for the rubes. At least we have that.

  28. Hugh

    Tom Harris, actually as I have pointed out numerous times Putin is big on self-determination when it involves Russians living outside Russia (Crimea, Georgia) but not at all when it comes to groups like the Chechens inside Russia.

  29. S Brennan

    “I cite what has actually happened and as usual S Brennan rails against reality” – Hugh

    Actually Hugh; you made a Military prediction…as I directly quoted:

    ““the Pentagon would have no problems taking the Russians out as they did then. And the Russians would eat it, however much they disliked it, as they did then.” – Hugh

    To which I said:

    “The young armchair General speaks the “logic” that lost Athens it’s empire in Syracuse. Hugh, when you reply, as surely you will, remind everybody how many years of Military service you have, I am sure then…they’ll understand your over-confidence in military matters. Spoiler alert folks, the number is 0.” – Brennan

    Now please tell me Hugh, why do you endlessly fabricate falsehoods, do you think people won’t read up thread and see your casual use of dishonesty?

  30. THunter

    someofparts PERMALINK
    September 15, 2018
    War of any sort seems like playing on terms the U.S. would prefer. A large war against any foreign power would invigorate the economy and unify the citizenry. Better to quietly keep building your economies, developing your technologies and expanding your alliances. When the U.S. finally goes broke and breaks up into civil war, Eurasia will have too much wealth and technical superiority to be threatened.

    This is the keystone comment of this entire thread.
    Kudos on getting it right.

  31. VietnamVet

    Take it from my family, count your blessings, healthcare is so expensive for the uninsured in the USA that it is clear that the establishment simply does not care what happens to the little people. Climate change too. The “adults in the room” are unhinged. They’ve been fighting a unwinnable war for 17 years. President Donald Trump is now calling Secretary of Defense “Mad Dog” Mattis; “Moderate Dog”. America decided recently without any media fanfare to partition Syria and force the removal of Iranian troops. The problem for Canada, Sweden or Indonesia is that one mistake or insane decision and the two major nuclear powers will be in a shooting war in Syria that will inevitably escalate and destroy everything. Indeed, future generations of Canadians are dependent on Vladimir Putin staying in power and not becoming irrational.

  32. V

    VietnamVet
    September 16, 2018

    Bravo. Well and susinctly stated.
    The only adults I see in the room are Putin and Lavrov; Hugh is a Russophobe; eat your heart out Hugh. You’re as wrong as two left shoes…
    Ideaology blinds pragmatism; a sure road to destruction…

  33. There are no adults in the room VV, and to be honest I can’t help but feel that it is those such as you and I who are called upon to be the adults. I don’t need a tattoo to never forget. We need to do now what we did then: let their common dog sort them out.

    For those scratching your heads right now, ask a combat vet sometime why we tend to think of you as less than human.

  34. someofparts

    If we are less than human, why did you fight? You should become a bankster.

  35. There’s never a good reason, and I’m not proud of what I did. It’s not like I had a choice.

    I wasn’t born this way. But to be honest, now that you’ve thrown it down, we could all use a little bankster ruthless right now if we are to combat this thing. Fire with fire. And grow thicker skin.

    Seven billion people on a ball of rock that can barely sustain one. Do the math.

  36. NR

    Hard to believe the amount of praise around here for Putin, a brutal dictator who has murdered thousands, both his own citizens and those of other countries, in his quest to achieve and maintain power.

    Really makes one wonder at the reasons behind it.

  37. DMC

    CAITLIN JOHNSTONE:

    https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/09/13/four-reasons-why-interventionism-in-syria-is-crazy-and-stupid/

    Hard to believe the number of NeoCon trolls around here who think its worth killing millions just to check off another box on Netenyahu’s list of foreign policy goals.

  38. VietnamVet

    NR

    Vladimir Putin is as much a part of neo-liberal economic order as Barrack Obama or David Cameron but he is a competent Russian version. As long as global oligarchs continue to exploit the little people with endless wars, austerity and user fees, the rising tide of inequality will give birth to more irrational totalitarian nationalists. Remember the 1930s. This includes Russia. The coup attempt by the globalists to remove the nationalist President in DC adds to the turmoil. If you want a real nightmare, think of Mike Pence listening to God when dealing with the Russian version of Donald Trump.

  39. different clue

    @VietnamVet,

    And after considering your scenario for a bit, consider this . . . . the Party Democrats actually prefer Pence to Trump. Pence has been a Senator and a Governor . . . just like Them. He IS one of Them. He is in the Big Club. Not like that gauche “billionaire plumber” Trump.

    The ” Establishment”, if you will, is working to mold the mass mind to accept that Trump is a totally incompetent danger, unfit for office, and properly removable under Article 25. Woodward has long been an Establishment spokes-reporter, and the New York Times has long been an Establishment-Seal-Of-Approval propaganda flagship. They know exactly who they’ll get if they “25” Trump. And they don’t mind it at all.

    Pence is the rattlesnake in Trump’s sleeping bag, the scorpion in the toe of Trump’s boot.

    Gentlemen prefer blondes and Democrats prefer Pence.

  40. Charlie

    @S Brennan

    Don’t be so sure about Medicaid being better than an independent policy. While it may be so for some, I’ve had to fight constantly just to get care. I’ve been going on two years attempting to find an endocrinologist that will accept medicaid, my pruvatized medicaid insurance provider changes the formulary on a whim such that it’s a complete surprise when I find out I can’t fill a prescription that was already refilled due to pharmacy errors or the pharmacy just tells me to bugger off when I point out they received the electronic prescription when they say they didn’t.

    Ian’s experience is way different, but our own isn’t that much different in this sadistic system.

  41. Charlie

    @S Brennan

    Don\’t be so sure about Medicaid being better than an independent policy. While it may be so for some, I\’ve had to fight constantly just to get care. I\’ve been going on two years attempting to find an endocrinologist that will accept medicaid, my pruvatized medicaid insurance provider changes the formulary on a whim such that it\’s a complete surprise when I find out I can\’t fill a prescription that was already refilled due to pharmacy errors or the pharmacy just tells me to bugger off when I point out they received the electronic prescription when they say they didn\’t.

    Ian\’s experience is way different, but our own isn\’t that much different in this sadistic system.

  42. Charlie

    Sorry, an error led to the double post.

  43. someofparts

    When it comes to Bob Woodward’s work, apparently none of us should trust a word of it.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/culturebox/2013/03/bob_woodward_and_gene_sperling_what_woodward_s_john_belushi_book_can_tell.single.html

    also – “killing millions just to check off another box on Netenyahu’s list of foreign policy goals”

    so true – how dare the Russians tamper with our elections when that is Bibi’s job!

  44. someofparts

    As to the Caitlin Johnstone article, if the U.S. had not fought in WWII the Russians would have defeated the Germans. That’s what our ignoble leaders went to war to prevent. It’s the same reason they nuked those two cities after the Japanese had already surrendered. For our owners, no weapon is too horrible and no slaughter too massive to stop socialism or any prospect of justice for the victims of capitalism.

  45. someofparts

    We don’t need bankster ruthlessness to beat these people. We are going to do it by using their own corruption in the Citizens United decision against them. Turns out you can dismantle the master’s house using the master’s tools.

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/11/bernie-sanders-democratic-labor-party-ackerman

  46. Hugh

    It always seems that when Ian has a post on foreign policy the thread turns into an illustration of why progressives have no credibility on the subject. It is just as reality-disconnected and filled with ad hominems as anything to be found on the wingnut right. A good way to begin to understand the world is to realize that it is filled with black hats. Just because one black hat opposes another black hat does not turn either of their hats white. Just because Russian policy in Syria has been relatively effective does not mean it hasn’t been brutal, sloppy, and filled with mistakes. Nor does it turn Putin into a wise man or a grand strategist. He’s just a dictator and opportunist. And that opportunism has real long term costs which reduce or eliminate any short term gains. Syria is a destroyed country thanks largely to indiscriminate Russian and Syrian government bombing. And it is going to stay a destroyed country because neither of Assad’s chief allies, the Russians and the Iranians, have the money or the interest to rebuild it. Do I think that any of this will have any impact on those on either the right or the left who have already written their largely fact free scripts on any of this? Of course not. It is something to think about though that almost nobody on the entire political spectrum knows or seriously gives a shit about the rest of the world (if you did you would put aside your preconceptions and try to understand it). It’s just so much easier to stuff it into whatever prejudices you have and then feel your flimflam is superior to everyone else’s, or if pressed, fall back on some nihilistic argument that all views contained prejudices, therefore all views are at least equal in their defects, even if such an argument entails that we can never know anything about anything. Good luck with that.

  47. Tom

    someofparts

    If the US did not enter WW2 Nazi Germany would have won the war. The Soviets spent the entire war serving as Target Practice for the Wehrmacht which consistently inflicted 5 to 1 kills on them and bear in mind the USSR only had double the population of the Reich and had 16 times less industrial capacity.

    Without US Involvement, Germany can devote 30 more divisions worth of personnel to the Ost Front, including Flak Units in Germany not needed to counter US Bombers, large numbers of fighter aircrafts, and doesn’t have to devote much of its resources to repairing bomb damage or air defenses.

    That would have been fatal in 42 and would have meant the Germans would have taken Stalingrad.

    No US Lendlease also screws the Soviets. 360,778 tons of lendlease and goods paid for in kind, might not sound like much, but included enough winter boots to equip a million men, enough food to prevent 1,000,000 people from starving to death, 800 locomotives to replace the massive losses of Soviet Rolling Stock.

    Without those shipments, the Soviet Winter Counter-attack can’t go forward as the troops lack boots and food to sustain combat operations, so the Red Army winters out with the Germans at Moscow’s Gates.

    2,453,097 tons were delivered in 1942, which includes tens of thousands of trucks, without which the Soviets would have suffered massive losses on the scale of 41 again. Half of the USSR’s planes were lendlease in this period, and a quarter were built with lendlease aluminium, and flew on lendlease avgas.

    Without that Lendlease the Soviet Union would have fallen in 42.

    The US was the decisive factor in WW2, to pretend otherwise is to engage in historical revisionism. The war was either going to be won by the US or Germany, the others were bit players due to numerous soft flaws in how they were organized.

  48. Willy

    Just because one black hat opposes another black hat does not turn either of their hats white.

    We have too few folks around who can simply call a spade a spade, and too many who need to project whatever they hope will work for them onto the rest of the world.

    I theorize that most everybody senses that their own personal control over their own lives has been continuously lessening (regardless of how “personally responsible” they are), and that most PTB who could change that feeling lies to them then does nothing to change it. Then, as the human need for cognitive closure kicks in they increasingly grasp at the straws of irrational theories or authoritarian assholes to help alleviate said angst.

    I’m hoping that careful use of the KISS Principle may help. But then, I’m still learning this stuff myself, too.

  49. Peter

    @SOP

    I wonder if the Soviets could have survived when their Axis partner Germany turned on them if there hadn’t been so many card carring communists in FDR’s government. Would the 100,000 jeeps, 12,000 armored vehicles, 11,000 aircraft, 100,000 studabaker trucks and 1.75 million tons of food been sent otherwise? FYI, it took the Japs over a week after the a-bombs were dropped to surrender unconditionally.

  50. Good luck with your health, Ian.

  51. Hugh

    OT real (inflation adjusted) average hourly wages in August were unchanged from July for the lower 82% of workers in the private sector (production and nonsupervisory personnel) and a penny less than a year ago. Real average weekly wages increased 12 cents from last month and were up 0.5% from a year ago. That is hourly wages did not increase but the work week was slightly longer.

  52. Ian Welsh

    The Soviets broke the German army. Anyone who says otherwise is engaging in some serious revisionism.

  53. different clue

    @Tom,

    Thinking about what “would have happened” is some interesting counter-factual speculation. A friend of mine used to refer to that as ” hyperextension of the bankrupt hypothetical”. A pharmacist I used to work with sometimes quoted the country saying ” the dog would have caught the rabbit if he hadn’t stopped to take a shit”.

    This counter-factual is worth a few minutes thought in that we only entered the war AFter Hitler declared war on us. Had Hitler not declared war on us in support of his ally Japan, our Congress would probably not have declared war on Germany too, but only on Japan.

    As to Peter’s speculation, I suspect that Roosevelt would have pushed his hardest to get Lend-Lease for Russia even without any Communists in his Administration, as he considered Nazi German to be a dangerous Peer-Competitor to America in the long run. Perhaps he also felt that defeating the Nazis in Europe was a necessary pre-condition to defeating the Oak-Panelled-Boardroom Upper-Class Nazis here in America as well . . . the OPB UC Nazis who supported the Nazi Party in Germany in its rise to power, the OPB UC Nazis who approached Smedley Butler to help them remove Roosevelt in a coup to install an OPB UC Nazi government in this country, etc.

  54. Willy

    Maybe those snowflake Stalinists broke the German war machine in a mass mob stampede to Berlin after hearing the safe space was there? Where’s Alex Jones to tell us what’s what? I’m out of his brainpower supplement pills.

    A single front on one’s own soil is usually worse than any three fronts far overseas. I’d think FDR’s card carrying commies were being pretty good strategists by letting 95% of the casualties happen over there instead of here.

  55. Peter

    Russia played a huge role in WW2 by first helping Hitler start it then spending three years fighting Hitler’s invasion. It took about three dead Russians to produce one dead German so they weren’t very efficient at war but they had the manpower for the bloodbath and along with the Russian winter they finally saved Russia. Could they have done this without the industrial and agricultural might of the US aiding them is doubtful. The food aid is probably the most important for they would have starved without it. Russia;s war was mostly defensive and in Russia while the US and UK went on the offense against Germany and Japan blocking their supply routes and degrading their industrial war machine. The Syrian war is becoming strange with Assad’s forces ‘accidently’ shooting down a Russian troop transport yesterday.

  56. Tom

    “The Soviets broke the German army. Anyone who says otherwise is engaging in some serious revisionism.” Ian Welsh

    Uh no. If we go by absolute numbers of dead, perhaps, but the Soviets were bled white in the process.

    Quantitatively, the Western Allies broke the German Army.

    The Luftwaffe was utterly annihilated by the US Air Force which inflicted 7-to-1 kills in aerial combat and allowed them to directly attack the German Infrastructure which drew off hundreds of thousands of Germans to defense of the Reich in the Flak Forces. These forces contained nearly a million men in them and tens of thousands of flak guns that could have been used to devastating effect on the Ost Front along with 2,000 fighters and bombers.

    The Afrika Korp used 10 times the trucks a normal corps in Russia did and had the equivalent of an entire Ost Front Army Group worth of logistics vehicles and transport aircraft. This would have been decisive in 42, allowing 6th Army to rapidly close on Stalingrad before the Soviets could retreat into it. This is before we factor in all the merchant ships sunk carrying Afrika Korps supplies.

    The Allied Invasion of French North Africa caused half the Luftwaffe’s transport fleet to divert to landing large amounts of troops to Tunisia just before Stalingrad was encircled. Had they not been diverted, 6th Army could have been supplied by air and last long enough to break out in the Spring.

    The Allied Invasion of Sicily caused Hitler to divert five panzer divisions to Italy at a crucial point in 43 when they could have been used to devastating impact in Russia.

    As the Western Allied Powers gained momentum, Hitler stripped out more panzers, more trucks, more aircraft, and more replacements off the Ost Front, immobilizing large amounts of his Ost Front Armies while the Soviets bulking up on Lend Lease and with a single Front were able to focus on each German Army Group at a time.

    When Normandy was hit in 44, this sucked enough Panzers and Trucks from the Ost Front that Operation Bagration was able to bag Army Group Center which was denuded of all Mobile Units that could have allowed it to beat off encirclement.

    It is instructive to us, that for Operation Bagration, the German AGC had 486,493 soldiers roughly 400,000 hiwis, 118 Panzers, 377 Assault Guns, 2,589 artillery pieces, and 602 aircraft. They faced a Soviet Army with roughly 2,500,000 men with 2,715 tanks, 1,355 assault guns, 24,363 artillery pieces, and 5,327 aircraft.

    The Battle lasted a month, the Soviets lost all their Tanks, almost 3,000 artillery pieces, over 800 aircraft, over 700,000 dead or wounded, while the Germans lost roughly 400,000 men, mostly hiwis, with the bulk being captured.

    Compare with France where US Armored Units were inflicting lopsided 7-to-1 kills on German Panzers in combat, ensuring the Wehrmacht could not amass its Panzers on the East ever again.

    WW2 was a Tank War, at least in Europe, and it was the Western Allies ability to match and exceed the Germans in Armored Warfare that ultimately doomed the German War Machine and enabled the Soviets to clobber mostly German Infantry Divisions with their Tank Armies which still suffered appalling losses.

  57. Ian Welsh

    By 44 the Russian army was already broken and retreating, and it had been broken on the Eastern front. That it took the Russians heavy casualties doesn’t really matter, they did it.

    Hitler did fuck up. He should have taken Malta, which was at points do-able, and then the re-supply of Africa would have been easy. Taking the Middle East would have captured the oil that the Germans needed, and taking both Malta and Sub-Saharan Africa would have made the Med a German lake.

    The fuller argument is well stated in “How Great Generals Win”, in the chapter on Rommel. I am substantially convinced by it.

    And, of course, Russia should never have been invaded in the first place, and Hitler’s biggest other fuck up was changing the Luftwaffe from attacking the RAF to attacking London.

    However, Tom, you’re obviously a military grognard, and it’s not an argument I’m interested in fighting /that/ much. Plenty of grognards on the other side!

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