The American Death Wish

Thanks for summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and saying for years. I was shocked that Bush didn’t bring us into full blown catastrophe within his first term. He almost did it in two terms, but Obama got the Congress to give him a breather with TARP and all that. Maybe was the right thing to do, but it really let the delusionists pretend for another year or two (for some reason we can’t have extend without pretend), and it also means that Obama will be the new Hoover, not Bush. And the one who leads us out will not be an FDR, but rather a fascist or a Putin.

Unfortunately I’m over 40, not rich, and my skills are not mad, so I’m stuck here. When energy prices get to high, which climate is more bearable? Five months of hot as hell Texas with limited A/C, or 8 months of temprate but depressing Seattle gloom and diesel soot (man, the air up there is filthy).

Ian, you are on the same page here as I’ve been on for a long time, too, since the Sixties and Seventies, actually. While it’s not necessary for the US to blow itself up, it is fixed on that course. The ship is steaming full speed at the iceberg of reality, and no one on the bridge is talking about changing course or even reducing speed. when it will hit that iceberg is uncertain, however. I thought it would be long before this, but I obviously got the timing wrong. But, given the impending environmental/energy crisis that is coming to a head, I don’t see the impact as very far off now. The financial crisis and healthcare, etc. will be dwarfed by this. They are only the tip of the iceberg. The bulk of the mass — environment/energy — lies beneath the surface.

The way that the US is headed, the middle class is deteriorating and there is an increasing disparity between have’s and have-not’s. This will likely result in a three tier society, the obscenely wealth, their well-paid minions, and the rest of us. Only the top two tiers will continue to have access to unlimited energy, and other perks of wealth. The “eaters” will have to fend for themselves as best they can, receiving enough to prevent revolt. Of course, this will require massive propaganda and scapegoating to keep the masses off-track, so expect expanded war, too, and a lot of rightist populism. So, best not to be too visible.

OK, this is a worst-case scenario, I admit. It doesn’t have to be this way, and everyone should be doing everything possible to prevent, while also prudently preparing for any eventuality. But to expect the political system as it now stands to fix things is, I think, hoping for miracles.

The best answer at this point for people who see the inevitable coming is to shout from the rooftops, while at the same time working hard to create alternative networks for survival. These networks have to recognize that the status quo cannot be amended sufficiently to avoid catastrophe and that a completely alternative society needs to be created, complete with its own economy. These networks can also now go global through the Internet. Check out the Rainbow Family, for example. Founded in the early Seventies, they are now international in scope. Too extreme for you? There’s lots of other stuff happening, too, at a lot of different levels. There are even sustainable living departments springing up in academia. If you can’t find anything that suits you, start it. Life isn’t a beach (and it doesn’t have to be a bitch), it’s a garden: “Let a hundred flowers bloom.”

I’m not talking about adopting bare survivalism, although knowledge of these skills is certainly an asset in many ways, especially since when one needs them it is too late to begin acquiring them. Even with loose organization, a sizable globally networked community with many different nodes can arise to meet the coming challenges without having to resort to bare survivalism. There are sustainable communities springing up all around now, and while this movement is still beneath the radar as far as the mainstream goes, it’s significant in numbers and capability. While it’s not yet possible for global society to adapt before the collision without a radical transformation of lifestyle, and there won’t be without a technological advance that is not on the horizon at this time, alternative communities may be able to do it, especially acting in concert. Worth trying anyway, considering the alternative of relying on the status quo.

Taos John: “Maybe we just haven’t had our noses rubbed in it hard enough.”

That was the value of the draft in the Vietnam era. Too bad so many people had to die and be maimed, though, in order to rub our noses in it. But that’s what it takes to get people off their duff.

For the record, I remember the draft in the ’60s very well, as I was constantly trying to avoid it, so I pretty much agree with you. You’d think we’d have evolved to the point where so much cowpie in the face wasn’t necessary, though. Surely we’re almost there.

On the matter of a 40%-60% decline in our standard of living, all anyone has to do to practice is move to Taos, NM. My wife and I did 10 years ago. Great way to blow up your life and get down to, um, basics. No equity, no insurance, freezing-ass cold and dusty. Or muddy. No wonder I empathize with those other poor bastards in mud huts on the other side of the world: I’m in one, too!

Ian, you are being way too optimistic here.

This is the United States, one of the most efficiently consistently successfully violent empires the world has ever seen. 30-40 percent of this nation would take out the whole world before declining, or die trying. “Our way of life is not negotiable.”

That is the other side of “not feasible.” Why hasn’t the sane world confronted us? You can say Britain or China have nukes. Would/will they use them? I personally think we are in late Republic Rome, not late Empire. The day will come soon when America demands open empire. Oh, it will be tolerable, with prosperity in the provinces(BRIC), panem et circenses and incredible wealth in the center.

Or there will no safe place to run or hide.

One thing I look at, if historical parallels are of any use, is that Rome and Britain were in part brought down by their military competitors.

I grew up when, for examples, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon had militaries that if not frightening, were at least capable of annoyance.

The interesting fact of current history is not that the United States is spending so much on the military budget, but that everyone else is spending so little, relatively.

Looks like a surrender to hegemony to me, and something that is recent.

You don’t get it.

Even though it may appear that the problems we face today are a result of living beyond our means, unwillingness to beef up the stimulus package, pass critical reform legislation, trim the bloated military budget, etc., these all may be symptoms of a much more fundamental problem. The world keeps on changing, changing, into the future. Something like that. You can’t stop things from changing but you can try to understand why things are changing and, from that, make your contribution. The problems we face today demand that we put aside our preconceived ideas and try to understand what is new in the world today and how we can work with this change to make a better world.

We see in history, as agriculture developed, the productive relations that developed under the tribal hunter-gatherer society were abandoned. This began a period of struggle to develop new productive relations that would correspond to agriculture. New tools: the plow produces more wealth than the bow and arrow. This in turn created new social relationships. The plow created the farmer. The old skills and relationships under the hunter-gatherer society could not exist under the new agricultural society. This has been the development of societies over time. New tools, new technology, new social relationships.

Today, again, new tools–electronics, i.e, computer-controlled robotics and other forms of high technology–are being applied to industry. This has been developing for the past thirty years or more. Futurist Alvin Toffler wrote in 1980:

“The Third Wave affects everyone… challenges all the old power relationships, the privileges and prerogatives of the endangered elites of today, and provides the backdrop against which the key power struggles of tomorrow will be fought.”

Electronics, made possible by the semiconductor and micro-chip, is the basis of labor-replacing technology. It is on this basis that the old social relationships of reform, trade unionism, civil rights, etc. are breaking down. The basic contract between the working class and the capitalist class is breaking down. If you can’t exploit labor but instead replace it with robotics, then you have a new class of people that can’t survive under the old contract. Conversely if you can’t exploit labor to make your profit, then you must move to another way to extract max profit and this other way is speculation. So, all the old relationships are breaking down. The rich will get richer; the poor, the underemployed and unemployed will be forced to fight to survive. The old contract will not work for either the working class or the capitalist class.

This is the process we are going through with the development of labor-replacing technology. But, more importantly, the knowledge which makes this possible also makes possible freedom from the dog-eat-dog, survival-of-the-fittest laws of the animal kingdom. . Humanity has the wherewithal to fully ensure the intellectual, cultural, emotional, and spiritual lives of all. The possibilities of humanity’s realizing its full potential are astonishing…depending if we understand what change is possible, and embrace and facilitate that change.

Ian said;
“Because you aren’t the people who created the empire. You’re their soft heirs. Oh yes, you’re ruthless, but you can’t take a punch.

And the Chinese and Russians can take punches.

And because the economics are all against you. You can’t keep gutting your economy this way and expect to be able to fight. This isn’t the US of WWI or WWII.”
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It never was so obvious to me until I moved to Asia (Thailand) how soft we Americans are. Thai’s are tough, Laotians are tough, Burmese are tough along with all the rest and I’m not talking about fighting; I’m talking about living. I hear westerners constantly say how lazy Thai’s are, but that’s just ignorance speaking; I know better and nothing could be farther from the truth.
But it’s also true about taking a punch; as a society we can’t. I see things exactly as Ian does and have for many, many years; and my gut told me (in the early 90’s) the economic pyramid scheme had to come down. But not being an economist I was sometimes confused when it didn’t crash; but in my saner moments I knew it would and made sure I steered clear of the stupidity.
I used to feel badly for America/Americans, but can no longer muster any sympathy when time after time they failed to act at every opportunity to stop the insanity and further; they then allowed irrational fear to enable the theft of their constitution, bill of rights and most grievously habeas corpus.

Nice observations Ian,

For the want of an education, sound minds were lost.

For the want of sound minds, the ability to think was lost.

For the want of sound thought, beliefs, myths, and fiction dominate.

For want of substance, a people became blind to their estate.

For want of estate, the code of Law and Constitution were lost.

For want of Law and Constitution, the Republic was lost.

For the want of a Republic, the future was lost.

For want of a future, a people was lost.

Will the above sum up your point?

Here’s a link to a video on the Real News network;

Philip Dine: Unions extremely disappointed with Obama but where is their independence?

http://tinyurl.com/ycmogs3

I think it ties in nicely with this thread.

I’ve long agreed with you on the softness of Americans, Ian. You’re right. We can’t take a punch. What i fear is our tendency to draw a gun after taking a punch to prove our manliness.

Raven said “The USA has survived it so far..”

Americans keep saying that as a reason not to reform the Senate, not to elect presidents directly, not to reform health insurance, etc. And it has been true (for the survivors) and will be true until it is no longer true. It’s an absurd, lazy and stupid way of thinking. But carry on. If it’s to late to change your fate, there really is no reason to contemplate it if you don’t want to.

One thought, after a bit more sleep: the economic form we have–early 21st century capitalism–is starting to creak very loudly. It will be the work of the next decade, perhaps next two decades, to reinvigorate it or replace it. I don’t think that Western Europe is exempt, though it is coping better: think how the UK followed the USA into Iraq, for instance, think of Thatcher, Sarkozy, and Merkel.

How can you imagine that there would ever be a war between China and the US? They own us. At the first sign of trouble China will call the mortgage.

You can’t go to war if you can’t make payroll.

Well, the one constant we can continue to count on is that no matter how bad things get, we will still be riddled with propaganda about how much better it is here than anywhere else, and how lucky we are to live here in the good ol’ U.S.A.

Guaranteed, the corporate media will still be pumping that jingoistic crap at us even as we are forcefully herded by the Police State into prison camps (which will probably be called something like “safety zones”) for our own “protection”.

I do think that there are elements here that fit with the Russian situation in the 1990’s. Dimitri Orlov has written very detailed comparisons. He’s here: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/ and James Howard Kunstler gets another bit of this right. He’s here: http://www.kunstler.com/blog/ with a new blog post every Monday morning.

The part that Kunstler gets right speaks to what you’ve written, tjfxh. These nice “sustainable” communities will be doing well until people figure out they contain food and energy for the taking. Collapse will be ugly, as it always is. Think “The Road.” I’ve just recently come to this realization after thinking (as a lot of progressives did) that collapse would bring us back to some romantic rural sustainable existence in which we had learned all our lessons and humbly fix the world. It ain’t gonna be anything like that.

There are other ways. Did you read “Three Cups of Tea”? Those are the people who will survive this. The ones in New Guinea and in rural China and in the highlands of South America, if the new extremely drug resistant TB doesn’t go global (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/12/26/international/i210121S85.DTL&type=health#ixzz0auax1S7F)

Leave the U.S. Didn’t our ancestors, poor as they were, leave to go somewhere else? Somewhere where they could start a new life? Or are you too suckered into the patriotism propaganda? Too much to lose, eh? Sorry to hear that. My ancestors arrived with nothing. But they were tough. Like Laos, like Thailand. That kind of tough. They are my heroes. I left and I’m glad.

If reading Ian were not enough to persuade me of the utter dysfunction of U.S. public administration, watching The Wire would have done the job in depressing detail. The second season, where they show what was done to the jobs and unions at the port, is going to be hard to watch again until I can figure out how to do it without crying my eyes out all the way through.

I resemble some other commenters above in being, probably, too old and broke to escape. Also appreciate the harsh justice of being reduced to circumstances Americans have been all too comfortable inflicting on others for so long. I try to prepare and anticipate, but it may prove pointless when the bad times start in earnest.

But meanwhile, all the people around me are proving Ian prophetic. Without exception, every one of them is either making believe things will turn around or ranting about the need to do more of the very things that are causing the problem. The fact that one’s fellow citizens are to be feared and avoided in a crisis kind of shows how far the rot has gone. Maybe a community made up of folks who won’t help each other in a crisis must expect to be wiped out.

Personally I don’t think it’s just stupidity. I think it is bad sour little hearts. They don’t WANT to know what’s happening. It makes them get mad and stamp their little feet if they are expected to make an effort to have a clue.

Time to change the name of the place to reflect who lives here. Instead of USA, it’s time to switch to United States of WATB.
Funny thing is, I was reading a bit of Emma Goldman this weekend, and that is what she called the American middle class even back then – babies, spoiled babies.

Do not be too surprised about people being desperate. I was looking at Feb’s revised unemployment numbers, I live in rural West Tn. The county I live in was at a mere 16.9 and the county next to us was revised to 28.3. The state forgot to revise up all of the counties at the end of the table. Why am I not surprised, had to check a few times to make sure I did not miss anything. What do you bet that the numbers will be announced will be the number that are not accurate on the local news.

There were 11 counties over 20 percent in this state, you can not tell me these people are not desperate. The only thing I hear on the news is another meth lab being found, I have been keeping track this week, its been the 7th, I guess drugs must be the only jobs around here. To me that sounds pretty damn desperate, just wait when the unemployment benefits tapers off, and there are no more service jobs in these small rural towns, what is left but crime, and isn’t that the opposite of law abiding citizens.

I guess the drugs are what the moon shiners were during the 1920’s and 1930’s. I sure do not see any soft, lazy Americans in my town, I see a lot of people struggling, and a lot of people planting gardens that never did so before.

I would also like to comment about the labor movement in this country, it was not just a few decades, it was a long hard struggle. Both of my great great grandfather’s were boilermakers, and they fought for every single thing. It was not only about wages, it was about safety standards. My grandfathers in the 50’s were still fighting for fair wages, decent health care and most of all work place safety. My dad did during the 70’s and 80’s and I did too, we all were union, and we all fought to make ALL workers have a better standard of living, even if most of them did not even realized that when they bashed unions.