The End of the Rebels in the Ukraine and the Ukraine’s Future

Well, reading some sources like Vineyard of the Saker it looks like the rebels don’t think they’re losing. They for sure know they’re not winning, not yet anyway.

If there have been thousands of casualties in eastern Ukraine and the government is shelling hospitals and water supplies you’ve already got a passel of atrocities.

A very articulate assessment of the situation. The only thing missing is the level of corruption in Ukraine and how that’s played a part in Ukraine’s slide into a failed state. If that doesn’t change–which I think is unlikely, only because citizens of former Soviet states are all too used to corruption–then Ukraine will remain a financial hot potato that no one wants. No amount of EU money will help Ukraine if it’s all going to be siphoned off at the top. Russia hasn’t even been paid for former gas supplies to Ukraine, so it is unlikely to continue to extend credit to Ukraine. It may only take one cold winter for Western Ukraine to join Eastern Ukraine in fomenting a complete civil war.

It’s pretty clear Russian Special Forces have been helping the Eastern Ukraine resistance effort. It is also pretty clear they have now departed.

Saker is partisan and has given a partisan view of these changes, though I greatly appreciate his clarity both in his own position and about facts in general.

Obama was working with Putin on Syria until the Neo-Cons cornered him in Ukraine and the Mearsheimer article Saker just linked to suggests, along with the change in tone at the NYT, some movement in the bowels of deep state.

I agree Russia is better at the long game and that the Empire of Chaos is alienating the world, not one nation at a time, but now by the hands full!

@grayslady
re: corruption

Wherever the IMF goes, its terms instigate corruption. And the EU under the present regime is a neoliberal project creating even further corruption. The EU as a business and financial entity has no social morality and is a major representative of the international financial elites and corporations. Conditions of the EU ‘offer’ to Ukraine in 2013 included the closure of all Ukraine’s industry. Yanukovitch was being patriotic in rejecting the EU offer in favour of Russia’s.

However Ukraine “accepted” the western offer through means of an unelected government put in place by the US government and EU, by means of a western-instigated coup d’etat. The results of the scheduled elections will no doubt be manipulated to show Ukrainian support for this illegal regime, especially since Ukrainians have yet to experience the full meaning of government cuts.

Therefore all that remains to be worked out is the terms for oligarchs on all sides.

I am writing from Athens, Greece, where we are lucky enough to have few desirable assets apart from location.

@OldSkeptic Disagree with your comparisons with Hezbollah. I doubt that the Ukraine resistance fighters are as motivated as Hezbollah. As for the air, it’s my impression that Russia is effecting a defacto no-fly zone via surveillance info being passed to resistance and some pretty sophisticated weapons. That and of course the junta air force is vastly less capable than the Isreali one.

Regarding the Greece analogy — I think it’s spot on. And I think Ukraine is pretty much there right now.

Difference being, heavily armed country, ultra nationalist groups merged into the army, trained and getting experience as fighters. And oligarchs hold more power over the central government, so they must get a cut if the IMF reforms are enacted. If they don’t, the armed and trained crowd may “spontaneously” turn on its EU creditors.

It is not relevant to either NATO or the United States that Ukraine devolves into a ‘failed’ state. What is important is that it can be occupied militarily and secure bases built. The formal applied ‘chaos theory’ through state terror of American Foreign policy, cares little if degradation and fascism ensues, and that the populace suffers immiseration. The operational modality here is purely military. All the better that rabid Neo-Nazi elements can be recruited for either cannon fodder or grunt work for the overlords. I believe it would be charitable, if not naïve, to entertain the thought that the West is not good with a policy of total genocide: The evidence speaks for itself. Gaza, among others, is a case in point. I hope I am wrong. Russia remains the ‘Holy Grail’ of the American war psychosis. After Snowden and Syria, the American penchant for revenge at all costs is imminent.

Hey Ian, will your next post be about the hypocrisy over Foley’s murder and how America showed no outrage when a 16 year old American citizen was drone struck by Obama followed by his father without charges. Or the killing of Muslim children worldwide?

Or will you focus on the forgotten Kobane front in Syria which is now completely choked off by ISA and is getting pummeled into submission now.

In Hasakah, ISA just seized Jazah and killed a large number of YPG fighters after many got sucked into Iraq to shore up KDP Peshmerga, ISA also captured a female YPG fighter. You can guess her fate.

There is also the irony that America and EU are dumping weapons on the KDP Pesmerga who ran without fighting, while not giving anything to PUK Peshmerga who stood and fought because they are working with PYD/PKK which are considered terrorist organizations. Iran, however, released PJAK fighters from Jail, gave them tanks and sent them to join PUK.

Mosul Dam is still not secured, ISA holds the regulatory dam, a vital hill, grouting stopped on the 17th and still has not resumed as engineers fear to return, and the dam is in poor shape. Its very possible by expanding the fight to take the dam to prevent its destruction actually brings it about. IS will not suffer to have that dam in Peshmerga hands, it would give the KRG too much energy and water independence. If the dam fails, the regulatory dam will buy enough time for Mosul to evacuated and it will take three days to reach Baghdad and flood it out of business.

Lots of bad scenarios playing out in the Islamic State War. I’m starting to think the ISA offensive into Kurdistan was a massive strategic deception that the Kurds, Iraq, and Obama bought into. They yielded far too easily to pinpricks when historical evidence shows they suffered far stronger air attacks and persevered, recently in Syria as Tabqa Airbase has just been seized with the official proclamation to come soon.

Neat as I can tell, absolute best case scenario for the regulatory dam (8 clicks downstream) is that it would buy 1-2 hours. More likely, given what current water levels are, it buys zero time. Operational water height behind the main dam ranges from 40m to 80m (I would guess from the stills I’ve seen in recent coverage that current height is about 70m, but that’s just a WAG) – the regulatory dam is only 10m high (and has its own reservoir behind it – i.e., it doesn’t have an effective height of 10 metres). Unless current levels are very low (I don’t think they are), the flood crest is going to overtop the regulatory dam very, very quickly once failure occurs.

Mosul is a bit less than 60 clicks downstream – estimated time to flood crest would be about 8 hours, with crest height somewhere between 12 and 22 metres, flooding between about a third to just over half of the city.

Source:

al-Taiee, T.M. and Rasheed, A.M.M. (2009). Simulation Tigris River Flood Wave in Mosul City Due to a Hypothetical Mosul Dam Break. Paper presented at Thirteenth International Water Technology Conference, Hurghada, Egypt.

http://www.iwtc.info/2009_pdf/4-1.pdf

FWIW, I’ve always found Gordon useful as a source of insight into what DIA would like people to know it thinks. The biggest problems that I’ve seen are that what DIA thinks is not always correct and what “it” wants publicly known about its thinking is not nearly as diverse as it really is when seen from the inside.

Perceptive analysis by Ray McGovern, on Russia’s incredibly clever move with the humanitarian aid.

http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/23/russias-humanitarian-invasion/

Russia’s Humanitarian ‘Invasion’
August 23, 2014

Exclusive: Official Washington’s war-hysteria machine is running at full speed again after Russia unilaterally dispatched a convoy of trucks carrying humanitarian supplies to the blockaded Ukrainian city of Luhansk, writes ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern.

“Regardless of this latest geopolitical back-and-forth, it’s clear that Moscow’s decision to send the trucks across the border marked a new stage of the civil war in Ukraine. As Putin prepares to meet with Ukrainian President Poroshenko next week in Minsk – and as NATO leaders prepare for their summit on Sept. 4 to 5 in Wales – the Kremlin has put down a marker: there are limits to the amount of suffering that Russia will let Kiev inflict on the anti-coup federalists and ethnic Russian civilians right across the border.

The Russians’ attitude seems to be that if the relief convoys can be described as an invasion of sovereign territory, so be it. Nor are they alone in the court of public opinion.”

The striking impact of the Ukraine civil war is that it has shown that you cannot trust corporate media. Today’s Washington Post article reported that Russian State TV broadcast images of the convoy being unloaded in Luhansk. But the accompanying graphic shows the city clearly encircled.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-aid-trucks-enter-ukraine/2014/08/22/7f8a31b0-2a13-11e4-86ca-6f03cbd15c1a_graphic.html

Reports later today indicate that the convoy safely crossed back into Russia. The map is clearly wrong and it is part and parcel of the propaganda campaign that commenced with the takeover of the Ukraine government.

VietnamVet
August 23, 2014
The striking impact of the Ukraine civil war is that it has shown that you cannot trust corporate media.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
God’s be good; are you just waking up to that “fact”?
This site is rife with alternatives. Use them for fucks sake!
Why do you even bother with MSM propaganda/government speak/Pentagon lies/spin-meisters, and downright bullshit?
Don’t waste electrons on this crap, we already know the real deal here (for the most part).
That said, you post mostly good stuff…

Celsius 233

In previous wars the propaganda could only proven false after the fact; the “domino theory” in Vietnam or “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq. Today in the Ukraine Civil War the degeneration is complete; the lie is visible on the same page of the same newspaper. The “aggressive” Russians can destroy the United States. NATO cannot be believed. The West is not backing down from its takeover of Ukraine. This is very frightening.

@ Formerly T-Bear
August 24, 2014

Couldn’t agree more. The garbage runs deep; very, very deep. I find RT to be quite good actually as well. BBC=garbage and Al Jazeera is only slightly better.
J. Cole? I find your comment true. I gave up on him long ago.

@ S Brennan
August 24, 2014

I find your comment ridiculous. I shoot left handed and use a knife right handed. Either way, it’s very common. What’s your point?

Tabqa Airbase has fallen to ISA. It actually was largely taken on the 21st except for some tunnels, but Twitter banhammered IS official accounts allowing SANA to post ridiculous stories and film from June to show it still had the base while they launched a counter-attack which failed to retake the base. All 28 Mig-21s were either destroyed or captured. Several helicopters as well. It was an utter disaster for SAAF and SAA.

ISA now is poised to take the vital highway supplying SAA forces around Aleppo in Hama province. Already ISA groups in Homs pulled out and linked up with Hama groups and took a string of villages.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_and_towns_during_the_Syrian_Civil_War

Not the best map but generally accurate.

Basically ISA will attack al-Ithriyah to link up with its Hama forces, to the North, they will likely finish off Kweiris Airbase which is a wreck then move along the Turkish Border and trap FSA and Syria forces in a big pocket like they did in Deir Ezzor in late June before flipping all the FSA forces there in mid-July.

With winter approaching, Assad has little time to save his Aleppo force and Deir Ezzor Force.

In Iraq, ISA is doing its signature VBIED offensive in Kirkuk, has ceased its, what I now think is a strategic deception, retreat in the face of US Airstrikes and still holds half of what it took from the Peshmerga. The best equipped Peshmerga and ISF forces are now concentrated on and around the Mosul Dam where a dam failure will wipe them out or more likely, ISA will feint, trick them into leaving the dam, retake the Mosul Dam and open the flood gates.

Also the VBIED offensive in Kirkuk may indicate ISA is planning an offensive soon there.

Pentagon also keeps saying they are launching airstrikes on ISA forces near Irbil, indicating something is not right.

Also Arabic youtube channels are being filled with new videos of Peshmerga in ISA hands taken within the last week, indicating again the Kurds are hiding serious losses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFhKZ_FIOHc&list=PL4226A62D2219B3C4&index=48

Clean one relatively speaking, others showcase dead Peshmerga.

As a fighting force the KDP Peshmerga are useless and ran at the mere word ISA was gunning for them at the start of this month, PUK is better disciplined but because its an Iranian puppet and works with PKK/PYD, its barred from US/NATO aid though Iran has given them substantial hrdware and turned loose PJAK fighters from their jails and Kurdish regulars from IRIA to join PUK along with Tanks and other heavy equipment.

On the whole, ISA is cleaning up for winter. I suspect Kobane will fall before the year is done and likely large most of Hasaka will be under ISA control by year end.

Deir Ezzor pocket I don’t know if ISA will take it this year, its possible, but we’ll have to see. Its actually consists of a network of bases and depots, and each would have to be cleared at once to keep anyone of them from supporting the other. Looking at the area in Wikimapia, taking all those bases would net ISA large amounts of fuel and heavy equipment, destroy another good chunk of Assad’s Airforce, and leave a long uninterrupted supply line into Iraq.

Either way we are looking at a few years of carnage, and as things stand, ISA will likely win unless the geopolitical messup gets untangled that has all those who can help at each other’s throats.

@ S Brennan
August 25, 2014

You really are a moron. I’m not speaking to being ambidextrous.
No where in my comment did I use or even imply that.
Don’t put words in my mouth; I generally say exactly what I mean.
My point still stands…

The question is; what’s Putin’s next move? What I see is the long game and Putin is far from finished.
Another convoy is likely on its way to Donetsk and possibly more.
The reports are very sketchy at this time.
Interesting times indeed.
I don’t think Russia is going to lay down for this intervention by the west; major shit to come…

peteybee ..yep. Another Russian trying to avoid WW3, without backing off.

He’s the third I know of. Of course we have the famous Stanislov Petrov in 1983, but also the ‘third man’ in the Russian nuclear sub being depth charged by the USN in 1962, who also disobeyed standing orders and refused to launch (the USSR always had a 3 man policy, while the US only has a 2 man one).

Of course one day some Russian in a critical position is going to say F**k It and hit the button….

@ OldSkeptic

With the lax security and gross incompetence in our strategic nuclear forces, I think that could easily be the U.S. as well.
It would certainly cure global warming, no? 😉

@ Formerly T-Bear
August 26, 2014

Yes. my favorite doG’s were the Greek’s doGs (Jason and the Argonauts/Ulysses/Orpheus, etc.).
They were so human; it’s easy to think of them as our progenitors.
I like your phrasing; …and lost the run of themselves.
Fits to a T, IMO.
In the end, we’ll get the thing we intend. It’s in the understanding of that in which we fail…

And from the ‘Dept of You Couldn’t Make This Shit Up’:

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268798/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=HhRZK0ku

Discussing US bombing ISIS in Syria:
“In an effort to avoid unintentionally strengthening the Syrian government, the White House could seek to balance strikes against the Islamic State with attacks on Assad regime targets”

Yep bomb everyone everywhere, the redicio ad adurdum of neo-con ‘strategy’…..

A better article from Glen Greenwald:
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/08/26/fun-empire-fighting-sides-war/

The Fun of Empire: Fighting on All Sides of a War in Syria
“That’s how the U.S., in less than a year, can get away with depicting involvement in the war in Syria – on opposite sides – as a national imperative. ”

US ‘strategy’ has gone from incoherence into ‘The Twilight Zone’.

My old nemesis from 2002-3, still stinking up the joint, today he adds more lies to his incredible career of disinformation:

MICHAEL R. GORDON FYI, – [Gordon was/is THE NY Times disinformation specialist of the Iraq Invasion. He was one of the main purveyors of the story that Saddam Hussein would have a nuclear weapons in a matter of months.]

This time, the Headline screams::

UKRAINE REPORTS; RUSSIAN INVASION ON NEW FRONT

Quoting myself from before: “[Ukraine] reports of all sorts of things, but I pay a lot of taxes for spy satellites…so why isn’t Gordon claiming to have verified the reports with aerial reconnaissance?”

But it gets worse, the RUSSIAN INVASION Gordon “reports” consists of…wait for it;

“Ukraine’s military said included five [COUNT ‘EM FIVE] armored personnel carriers”

Now it’s clear from Gordon, the US armed, funded & led coup forces are having their collective ass kicked in and Gordon has been given the job shifting the blame away from policy makers such as Obama & Hillary’s hand picked nut-job, Nuland and onto Russia & Putin, never mind that Hillary started this by spending $5,000,000,000.00 in taxpayer dollars to support SS wannabees in violent coup.

A consummate liar, there has to be a special place in hell for Gordon and for that matter, the editors of the NYTimes…and their ilk. The fact of the matter is; the US insisted that the coup leaders, on the US payroll, force hastily conscripted soldiers into a blitzkrieg war, WITHOUT any air support. in spite of superior armor, the supply lines were repeatedly cutoff and rather than beat a hasty retreat to “defensible” positions, they pressed on…just as the Nazis’ did in the original Barbarossa. Read the article through, watch the not so subtle weasel words, the lack of proper attribution, “an American official”, “The United States has photographs that show”, “another photo shows artillery”, not one accusatory sentence has a person’s name, or approximate position attached to the claim. Let me remind you again, Gordon is the guy that warned of Saddam’s nuclear arms being ready to go within months…arms that existed only in his warped fiction writers mind.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html

From Wiki:

“During the first phase of the Iraq war, he was the only newspaper reporter embedded with the allied land command under General Tommy Franks, a position that “granted him unique access to cover the invasion strategy and its enactment””

“he was the first to report Saddam Hussein’s alleged nuclear weapons program in August 2002 with the article “U.S. Says Hussein Intensifies Quest for A-Bomb Parts.”

As an author, he [wrote] The Generals’ War: The Inside Story of the Conflict in the Gulf, which covers the 1991 Gulf War,[citation needed] and Cobra II, which covers the Iraq War begun 2003.[4]

The General’s War won high praise from …Defense Secretary Dick Cheney describing it as “a fascinating account of the war” that he would “recommend”.

This may be optimistic, but seems to be fairly close to the currently known facts:

http://rocksolidpolitics.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/the-ukraine-rope-dope.html

“The situation is turning from bad to worse in Ukraine for that country’s government. Its policy of flashy pincer movements to try and capture high profile objectives for media consumption has come to its natural conclusion – utter failure. As I wrote one month ago – The Mouse Trap – NAF forces were sucking the Ukraine army east to lure them into battle within the strategically convenient, and plausibly deniable, Russian guns. Since that time Ukraine has lost most of its operational air force to missiles, and has seen entire brigades of men wiped out along salients located near the Russian border.”

“….The result of that somewhat reckless decision is now the same result Hitler found – encircled forces. At the time of this post there are 9 encircled formations of Ukraine troops with an estimated total strength of 20,000. For an army the size of Ukraine’s, this number represents a decisive loss. What makes matters worse is the knowledge that the units now trapped, and the ones trapped prior to this and already eliminated, represent the entire core of Ukraine’s professional army.”

This is his speculation on the next moves, interesting but possible?

“That brings us to today, and tomorrow. Having tied up a large percentage of Ukraine troops at the north and central fronts, and with Ukraine thus far refusing to withdraw to positions more defensible with fewer troops, the NAF has moved in the South. Essentially, the move came from near the Russian border two days ago, including an amphibious landing just east of Mariupol on Ukraine’s south coast. Simultaneously, NAF units in Donetsk city counterattacked toward the South. The resulting squeeze caused a large Ukraine retreat, but not before two more large pockets of trapped troops were created. At the time of this post Mariupol is surrounded on two sides, with the western resupply/escape route being rapidly closed. NAF units are fanning along the north of Mariupol in an attempt to block Ukraine units from moving south to intercept advancing NAF forces. The goal appears to be the City of Melitopol. From there the NAF have quick access to the Crimean border (Russia) and the Dnieper River cities to the north.”

I think there is a probability (nothing is certain in war of course) that the Federalists forces are on the verge of a stunning military victory, essentially eliminating, unless they retreat real fast, the core (ie the trained part) of the Ukrainian forces.

If you look at the maps and see how many UF are encircled and cut off you wonder what they can do.

In modern warfare unless you immediately try a break out then you very quickly run out of the fuel and ammo needed to get out. In which case your only hope is that another force can come to your aid. But the UF have no credible reserves to do so. Airpower can help, but most of the UF’s airforce has been destroyed and the air around there is lethal, so no chance of CAS or supply drops, etc.

The fact that the UF seem wedded to roads only makes their situation worse.

This could go down in the annuls of military history as a ‘multiple Stalingrad’.

@ OldSkeptic 28 August 2014

It appears you’re the only one with uncontaminated information resources amongst …

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Oh! Noes! The BBC has gotten its knickers in another twist – ‘There are Russians in the Ukraine!’. How on earth can BBC tell? Did they survey passports or something? Did ol’ ‘Fogghy’ Rassmussum tell them – evidence to be as forthcoming as disclosure about the final minutes of MH17? Of course it’s state secrets when all and sundry are caught out in their blatant lies. The Guardian is not to be outdone by vacuous vassals at BBC in their own misrepresentations.

Deconstructing slightly: Ukraine was part and parcel of the USSR, armed by the USSR, clothed by the USSR, inhabitants citizens of the USSR, speaking the language of the USSR both officially as well as traditionally in many homes and exhibiting cultural affinities effectively similar to those of the USSR. When the USSR collapsed as a political entity, these characteristics were not changed; of course the tanks, the armoured personnel carriers, the guns, the uniforms and all apparent appearances were not changed any more than captured weaponry changes appearances under a differing command, and a lot of weaponry (not destroyed) has changed hands in eastern Ukraine, those vaunted ‘Ukrainian Forces’ are primarily fascist private forces under the command, not of the Ukrainian military, but of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry and the oligarchs that fund them. These militias for all intents and purposes are what private warlords control, the failing Ukrainian government is tolerated as camouflage to obtain and receive support from Brussels and NATO without arousing great public outcry, such is the persuasion of modern media.

Keep up the brilliant writing (and educating the informationally deprived) OldSkeptic. Thanks!

Now we move into the real danger period. With the Novorossiya forces winning there has to be some US/UK/EU/etc reaction….which so far has been panic…but, the ‘smart’ ones, the ‘clever’ ones (see my Ian M Banks quote above), ie the neo-cons will use this panic to try to get what they want.

Anyone else thinking that it is awfully convenient to have ‘photos’ of a ‘Russian invasion’ just as the Ukrainian forces are getting thumped? Never mind the US State Dept says so and the BBC, Guardian, et al, mindlessly parrot it. Heck even the Australian ABC has it…so it must be ‘true’.

This is after weeks of mainstream media reports that the Kiev was ‘winning’ and pushing out the Federalists (now called the Army of Novorossiya, it seems that the federalist boat has sailed) …oops, how do they explain than now..oh right a ‘Russian invasion’ …or ‘incursion’ or whatever.

So what now? More sanctions?

I’ve said right from the beginning of this that the US #1 aim has been, one way or another, to end Russian gas sales to the EU. I think that we can now take that as a given. If there is no other way then Kiev will end the gas transhipment through its country (it has taken several steps in that direction already). But getting the EU to ‘voluntarily’ end gas purchases would be far better.

See this for an overview of some of the ‘behind the scenes’ moves: http://www.theautomaticearth.com/debt-rattle-aug-28-2014-eu-gas-supply-is-in-real-and-imminent-danger/

The other and far more dangerous issue (than moronic EU countries freezing this winter) is if/when are NATO troops going into the Ukraine and starting fighting? Remember there is a planned NATO/Ukraine ‘exercise’, originally for July then put back to early Sept, so NATO troops will be arriving real soon now.

So the first attempt at aim #2 is ending, that is: Kiev hasn’t managed to crush/ethnically cleanse the western Ukraine and then attack Crimea. Their airforce is gone, their army is crumbling, the Army of Novorossiya might even be able to grab continuous territory from the Russian border to Crimea. This is despite Kiev being supplied by large numbers of arms (inc aircraft and tanks) from Poland, Hungary, etc even, some reports say, from Germany.

So what will they do? Drop aim #2 and just settle for #1?

Now US has just said “The United States expects to agree on a further round of economic sanctions against Russia during meetings with European allies next week, but has ruled out any military intervention to deter further attacks on Ukraine.”.

That is perfectly in line with aim #1. But there is incredible pressure within the US Govt (as well as Congress) and NATO and the EU to go further and keep on trying for aim #2.

Interesting times indeed.

OldSkeptic

Thanks for keeping this post going with the latest information.

Does the President and his hanger-ons really believe what they are saying? I think so rather than admitting how incompetent they are and how addicted they are to power and wealth. Reality awaits till they hit rock bottom. The problem is how many people they will take down with them when they crash.

Until Ukraine settles down and new borders are drawn, there will be incredible pressure to intervene to preserve the western plutocrat’s grab for shale gas and wheat land. If Poland intervenes or NATO declares a no fly zone; a shooting war with Russia has just started. Just how dangerous the Balkans are right now is indicated by India and Pakistan where once they acquired nuclear weapons not one incidence has escalated into a shooting war including the 2008 Pakistani attack on Mumbai because the war will inevitability end with a nuclear exchange.

Ooops. Seems you read the tea leaves wrong. Don’t feel too bad, Yves Smith wrote a post saying we need more lawyers. Just remember it’s hard to predict things like the future.

Great quote from Llargi at the Automatic Earth:

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/debt-rattle-aug-29-2014-this-is-why-the-fed-will-raise-interest-rates/

“What I do think should stand out from all of what we’ve seen recently is that there’s not a single news source in the Anglo Saxon world, or in what I read in the German, French and Dutch press, that’s even remotely trustworthy. And that’s still, no matter how long this has been going on, a pretty scary conclusion to draw. “

Therefore we can conclude that the old ‘conspiracy buffs’, long derided for their claims of a media totally subservient to Govts…were right all along.

@ OldSkeptic 29 August 2014 #64546 above

It seems your missed (/b) was needed after all, that is the sort of information that calls for the most brazen script to get peoples attention. This is the first time in my life that I’ve ever seen such unanimity amongst papers of such differing political outlook particularly to each using exactly the same wording as well as the same phrasing, it is frightening the absolute control of the media that is being exercised, particularly over those sources of the traditional left.

Again I’d suggest there will be war by October, it is unlikely such aggression can be conducted by this stageful of charlatans for such a length of time without one of their company crossing some obvious trip-line. It is indeed the time to affect a change of governments and the personnel in them. It’s going to be a quite nasty little affray. It would be so much better getting rid of the turd in the WH punchbowl for starters, maybe the other ladrones will get some manners put on them.

Putin speaking at a pro-Kremlin youth camp:
“Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts,” he said at the camp on the banks of Lake Seliger.”We don’t want that and don’t plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression towards Russia.
“Russia’s partners… should understand it’s best not to mess with us,” said Putin, dressed casually in a grey sweater and light blue jeans.

“Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.”

YPG propaganda getting more pathetic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mQzcuAKdzQ Said to have been taken yesterday.

The Chick in it, she is KIA:

https://twitter.com/truthzmaster/status/506072130900230145/photo/1

http://justpaste.it/ja7im_pkk The full photo set from the aftermath of Jazza’ah battles.

YPG is losing and resorting to inflated kill counts and false bravado videos as blatant as SANA’s. Problem is IS records its deeds ad reveals them false.

Amirli in Iraq was relieved by ISF forces that punched a 16 kilometer corridor to the town. The Peshmerga who were 3 kilometers away failed to make any headway despite US Airstrikes.

OldSkeptic,

1] It’s SKILLED blue collar guys going up against, swarmey “urbane” NAZI’s and their slave conscripts.

2] Led by US commanders with a Napoleon/Nazi complex on a tight deadline to “finish the job” before winter. The result of which, was the complete inability to retreat/withdraw to protect their supply lines.

3] Yes, these indigenous fighters did an amazing job, [I thought they would be slaughtered], but credit should be given to the coup leaders supine obsequiousness to the foolishness of their US paymasters[4-5].

4] Who will join the Napoleons & Nazis for overrating their “superiority” and underestimating Slavic peoples persistence to persevere under fire.

5] I don’t know what they are teaching at West Point nowadays, but apparently, military history, is no longer part of the curriculum.

One tweak to S Brennan’s post on point #5:

“5] I don’t know what they are teaching at West Point nowadays, but apparently, military history, is no longer part of the curriculum.”

Should read:

I don’t know what they are teaching in the West nowadays, but apparently, history, is no longer part of the curriculum.

dePanzer, I stand corrected.

Interestingly some claims that the NF have around 30,000 troops.

From Posted by: Demian | Sep 2, 2014 4:01:18 PM | 34 over at MoA

“Colonel Cassad has put up a new report on the situation in Donbass. Not yet at the English site. Here’s the wrap-up of the military situation (Yandex tr.; no link because of spam filter):

At current trends, the collapse of the southern front and its consequences will lead to the liberation of the greater part of the Donetsk National Republic and deployment of hostilities on the territory of Zaporizhzhya Region. That is, one will gradually start talking about the transfer of combat operations to enemy territory, which was originally not under the control of the DPR and LPR.”

Personally I think that is a bit of a stretch. Might possibly be true if you include all non fighting forces, plus those in training, etc. But of you think that only a month or so ago they were struggling to find enough people to cover both the southern cauldron and Donetsk I somewhat doubt it. Even if, somehow, they had those numbers how would they equip them?

I’ll stick to my 10,000 max estimate. Maybe an attempt to bluff the UF to keep retreating

Sorry link: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/how-can-you-tell-whether-russia-has.html

“Looks like it’s all over today” — Reallllly?

So they agreed to a laundry list of things that must happen that they know won’t happen. This is just one tiny move in a long series of tactics that are part of a strategy that dare not speak its name. Only Obama gets to talk strategy out loud, aka, “we dont have a strategy.”

@ the Gambit : No worries – would be easier if we had a snark missile icon.

The question is will the US (NATO and the EU will do what it says) ‘double down’ on failure and escalate things?

Now if my thesis is correct (they have 2 aims #1 to end Russian gas sales to the EU and #2 get the Ukraine plus Crimea into NATO) then they will. They haven’t even (yet) managed #1 yet. To do so means they need a big ‘event’ of some kind to justify it, ie a real Russian invasion.

So how can they ‘double down’? They have already tried atrocities against civilians but Russia still didn’t move in. The Ukrainian Army (and air force) have been decisively beaten on the battlefield and Donetsk (etc) should be clear of shelling soon.

Another major atrocity, eg poison gas? Or an attack into the eastern areas which have not been involved in any combat yet? Missile fire towards Moscow? A crude nuclear dirty bomb? A ‘false flag’ attack on Kiev, or even the NATO forces when they arrive? They have lots of options and are usually quite imaginative and totally ruthless at such things.

One thing that will give them confidence is that the western media will print whatever they are told to print, so they can be confident of (say) a poison gas attack wont be reported, but a resulting Russian attack will.

Despite my hopes that there would be a ‘cracking’ of the total western media support for Kiev, that has not happened, in fact that support has gotten stronger if anything. Everything that Kiev says (no matter how absurd) is printed as gospel truth, even if it contradicts what they said the day before (oh those poor BBC/Guardian/etc writers twisting and turning all the time).

Germany wriggles, but is still behind NATO all the way, France has caved and the eastern NATO nations grow ever more belligerent. Plus looks like Finland and Sweden are coming into NATO. So there is no cracking of NATO (or the EU) either.

So, if they are going to escalate (my best guess) then as their ‘panic’ over their defeat settles down we can expect some totally hairbrained, absurd, counterproductive and cruel ‘event’ to happen. Probably around the time the NATO troops arrive for their exercises with the (surviving) Ukrainian forces.

Note the role of the UK as the ‘attack dog’. Typically it floats an idea against Russia to gauge the response, then if that goes down well then they implement it. When the UK floats banning Russia from SWIFT ( a financial ‘nuclear’ option basically) then that is a pretty good indication that US/NATO/etc are not going to back down now.

Is this a hint of an ‘event coming up? They couldn’t be that stupid could they?

Ukraine PM says Russia ‘terrorist state,’ energy supplies hit. http://www.arabnews.com/news/624581

“Yatseniuk also told a televised cabinet meeting that pro-Russian separatists were deliberately targeting energy infrastructure in eastern Ukraine and he detailed plans to compensate lost supplies of both natural gas and coal.”

Ukraine’s security council said on Wednesday the separatists also posed a threat to Europe’s imports of Russian gas.”

‘False flag’ to take out gas transit pipes then blame it on the “The Russian bandits and terrorists “?

Ok lets think like neo-cons, stupid but superficially ‘clever’ for a moment (IQ drops a lot temporarily).
(1) False Flag damage to the gas transit pipelines.
(2) Blame the “The Russian bandits and terrorists “.
(3) Gas cut off (or at least a large reduction) to the EU.
(4) Call for help from NATO.
(5) NATO troops go into ‘protecting the pipelines’ from ‘terrorists’, funnily enough the majority pf their ‘protection’ actions will be in Eastern Ukraine.
(6) Total sanctions against Russia, banned from SWIFT and all overseas money confiscated.

Win-win. Aim #1 achieved. Aim #2 started.

Issues:
Western media. That is fine, they will all print that Russia and its ‘terrorists’ attacked the pipelines to hurt the EU, some of the most reliable to the ‘powers that be’ might already being given a heads up so they can get their stories ready. Therefore watch what they say over the next week or so.

Also watch worldwide gas/oil prices speculation. The US being the US then favoured banks and speculators will be given a heads up so they can make a killing when prices go through the roof and protect themselves from a possible (though not guaranteed given endless Govt support) stock market crash.

Western politicians. Ditto.
EU people and economies…who gives a shit.

So no downside there from their point of view. The western elites and its media will be 100% behind such a thing and it is such a neo-con thing to do.

I’m being paranoid…. I hope…….

So, is this how the powers in charge will stop global warming?
Nuclear winter would certainly be effective, no?
The rabid behavior coming from Obama is beyond the pale. And we’ll pay the price in the end.
Hope is gone…

@ OldSkeptic

Can’t really argue with your post.
As to a reset, yes, that would be good. But, until and unless there is a fundamental change in human nature, a reset would only be temporary.
Our history is a broken record going round and round…

Yes, where is he? I think this could be a dead site for whatever personal/professional reasons that have come up.

Hope he (and his family, etc) are well and ok, smart person who I respect very deeply.

Truly interesting times afoot.
Just think, from those folks who are absolutely unable to manage an economy;
are now presuming they’ve the ability to conduct a war.

Just wonder how that will turn out.

= = = = = = =>

Duhmerica, your President has gone full bonkers, like in the rabid dog or englishmen in noonday sahara sun insane. There is no apparent connection with reality from reading european MSM headlines. You need to find a minder for the fellow PDQ, or remove his finger from active boxes – either removing the finger or the box would do. Only when production of verifiable evidence should he be allowed access to any public address facility and then only after he is shown to be certifiably clean of all drugs. Beware the fellow is (allegedly) legally trained and may attempt to pass off hearsay as fact, he is notorious for that trick. 😉

OS, though I generally agree with you I think you are wrong about O’s obeisance to Wall Street. His administration is largely purged of the Wall Streeters and now seems to be dominated by the cowboys who hate NYC and Boston almost as much as they hate dark-hued and slavic people. That also explains the US foreign policy attempt to blow up the current dollar/pound international banking regime and to isolate Europe from oil sources other than the U.S.

Tejas Nate asks “Where’s Ian?”

Answer:

He has taken a break to ponder whether he should continue, or give up, referring to that country above the Black Sea as “the” Ukraine. The only reason he hasn’t thus far is that I pointed out the error of his ways and he found that deeply offensive.

Ian’s fine, taking a break. Be back soon.

HVD re “It is very very difficult to understand why the bankers would want to hasten the downfall of the current banking regime by excluding Russia”.

I’ve thought about that too, I just put it down to them being 100% confident that they will be bailed out, they can’t lose no matter what. A fair bet given past history.

I’m sure there has been a lot of conversations between Cameron and the City of London about this. Equally I am sure a lot of guarantees have been made under the table.

This is an inference that comes from their current quietness. At the beginning they made a lot of noise (though not publicaly) about the impacts of Russian sanctions on them, remember the famous ‘no go’ areas that the City had given to the British Govt (and seen by a perceptive reporter).

The fact that Cameron even mentioned the idea of banning Russia from SWIFT is incredible and it would have had to be cleared with the Treasury/BoE/etc/etc first.

@ Jeff Wegerson

But the idea of a nuclear winter being our only survival is not worth thinking about.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I offered that as a tongue-deeply-in-cheek benefit of a nuclear conflagration; and it sure looks like we may go there.
The U.S. is quick to sanction for the same policies that it has done with hubris and impunity.
Sanctions can be construed as an act of war. Best to talk, no?
It’s also good to know history; maybe regarding pre-Pearl Harbor and our sanctions against Japan.
In my 70th year, I can’t recall a more dangerous time other than the Cuban debacle…

@ JustPlainDave

Oft you’re a good foil to hyperbole, but, I think you forget; Putin/Russia has said if confronted by overwhelming force they would go nuclear (tactical).
Russia reportedly has thousands of tactical nukes and the U.S. about 500.
Obama is pushing very hard with propaganda and outright lies to rally NATO into stupid, aggressive moves, directed at Moscow via Ukraine and the puppet Poroshenko.
I’d like to be comforted by your POV, but it seems wrong.
I would only add that Putin is one smart guy, but he’ll not back off what he believes is his right and his sphere of influence within which we are severely fucking with him…
Very bad juju…

@ JustPlainDave

But of course Ukraine couldn’t overwhelm; but NATO backed by the U.S. could potentially.
Screw Ukraine, they’re lame and driven, transparently, by the U.S.
Surprised that doesn’t register much with you.
Remember Russia in Cuba? What’s the difference here?

But, but, American forces are *in* Ukraine. It’s been widely reported American special forces are there and have been for weeks as an adjunct training force.
What the heck are you talking about?
Look, Nuland was pretty direct about what was really going on and U.S.’s involvement.
If you’re okay with that then we really don’t have much to discuss, yes?

Something has gone technically funny I can see only a small number of comments. Anybody else having problems?

T-Bear, when I do that only the first 3 comments appear.

Seems ok now…que?

Off topic but from the “Dept of I am Not Surprised”:

From the always excellent Gareth Porter
Exclusive: Israel’s Video Justifying Destruction of a Gaza Hospital Was From 2009

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/25999-israels-video-justifying-destruction-of-a-hospital-was-from-2009

“A video distributed by the Israeli military in July suggesting that Palestinian fighters had fired from the Al Wafa Rehabilitation and Geriatric Hospital in Gaza City was not shot during the recent Israeli attack on Gaza, and both audio and video clips were manipulated to cover up the fact that they were from entirely different incidents, a Truthout investigation has revealed.

The IDF began to prepare the ground for the destruction of Al Wafa hospital well before Israeli ground troops entered Gaza on July 17. On July 11, the IDF fired four warning rockets on the fourth floor of Al Wafa, making a large hole in the ceiling – the standard IDF signal that a building was going to be destroyed by an airstrike.”

Oh well at least Israel is consistent…they always lie. Which actually makes it easier to work out what they really mean…just take what they say and turn it 180 degrees.

@ JPD

That impulse to the effect of having nothing to discuss if others don’t accept all of one’s particular set of facts and never accepting others that potentially falsify one’s favourites, well, that explains why the commentariat’s analysis is so bad.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have no expectation anybody will accept *all* of my opinions. I’ll discuss until the cows come home if there is anything to gain; but circular discussions are fruitless.

I am aware of who and what was in Cuba and we almost went nuclear over that. Nuland made it pretty clear she (U.S. proxy) was running the coup and its candidate, Yats (as she called him), with the clear intention of bringing Ukraine into NATO and the EU’s economic zone.
I can only imagine what the ultimate outcome of that would have been. I think it would be naive to believe weapons wouldn’t have followed. The encirclement of Russia and the blatant demonizing of Putin is a desperate attempt by the U.S. at empire.
I have visions of Orwell’s tripartite world of eternal war.
The real kicker in all of this is MH-17. The findings (black boxes) are deliberately withheld from the public and I’d bet it’s because Ukrainian Mig-25’s shot it down. Logically there can be no other reason, IMO.

Celsius, I guess it depends on what it is that you hope to gain via discourse. I’ve always found that consensus is significantly less useful to me than disagreement grounded in fact. Disagreement grounded in conviction, without reference to fact, is significantly less useful.

Personally, I find that the current state of discourse on open, non-specialist sites these days is one of self-balkanization. A high degree of uniformity of opinion, founded on a narrow range of accepted facts – only some of which can be externally verified and very few of which are at all contextualized- appears to be the norm. Things that come from “approved” sources are accepted pretty much without question (e.g., the “always excellent” sources above – no source is “always excellent”, not one) whereas material that comes from sources that have been judged unacceptable (e.g., Michael Gordon – boo, hiss, knashing of teeth) is never accepted. Data points are selected and fitted around pre-selected interpretations, rather than folks going where the evidence leads or deliberately seeking to look at it through a range of alternative lenses. It’s not a recipe for an informed, engaged populace.

MiG-25’s have air-to-air capacity now? Last I’d heard they were strictly ground attack aircraft. Also it should be noted that essentialy 100% of new energy investment in the U.S. is in renewables. Solar(both solar-voltaic and solar thermal) is going to get progressively cheaper at an accelerating pace as production/installation ramps up, such that even coal will be too expensisve to bother with sometime before 2020. For all the shouting about carbon taxes and mandates, it will be supply and demand that brings about the transition to the cheap electricity economy.

@DMC
You’ve just demonstrated something none now in power can accomplish let alone conceive – to self-correct.

Had the Titanic self-corrected and headed directly at the iceberg instead of attempting to veer away, only the front few watertight compartments would have been damaged and left the ship in seaworthy state instead of a breach under the waterline of the majority of its watertight compartments, sending the ship to its grave. Another wonderful fact of 20/20 hindsight.

Additionally, has anyone noticed how complexity is now completely beyond control? There is no-one capable at the helm, either in the EU, London, Wall St. or Washington. Such systems developed through rational design have an uncanny ability to fail when not under rational control. That may go a long way to explain why President Putin has prevailed in the NATO inspired assault upon Russia. The coming winter looks to be long and cold. Some of that Libyan gas might come in handy if stability is restored to those suppliers. Can you spell: blowback?

@OldSkeptic

I think this report found at The Automatic Earth probably has a foretaste of what the response to sanctions will be.

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140908/192727067/Medvedev-Energy-Finance-Sanctions-Against-Russia-May-Provoke.html

titled: Medvedev: Energy, Finance Sanctions Against Russia May Provoke ‘Asymmetric Response’
primarily stating: MOSCOW, September 8 (RIA Novosti) – New Sanctions against Russia in energy or finance sectors could trigger an asymmetric response from Moscow, such as closing its airspace, Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told the Vedomosti newspaper in an interview released Monday.

Notice how no threat was made but a suggestion of what actions could be taken should applied sanctions not be thoroughly thought through. A fine display of diplomacy in action as opposed to the west’s sanctions being an ignorant and blatant act of economic warfare.

DMC
September 8, 2014
MiG-25′s have air-to-air capacity now?

Yes, always have had…

Well what can they say, since they have signed a well leaked agreement that the Ukraine, Netherlands and Australia (think there was the UK too) all have vetoes on what is reported….

Might just say “the plane flew, until it didn’t”…..lol.

@OldSkeptic 8 Sept. 2014 #64655

I still stand by ignorant. I am not one who entertains neoliberal/neocon philosophy as valid. I maintain ignorant as the operative in my statement from understanding Sun Tzu’s dictum – Know Your Enemy. These intellectual non-entities obviously don’t know Russia from their elbows. That view is held by others as well. See:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-07/top-russia-expert-ukraine-joining-nato-would-provoke-nuclear-war

Should one suspect you approve of a nice nuclear winter scenario? This ends my participation on this subject. Cheers …

Formerly T-Bear, I should have clarified what I meant more accurately, apologies.

I agree with you totally that from a reality based point of view that they are being insanely stupid.

But from within their own mind set (or mental model, whatever) they think they are being very clever and that the risks are negligible (or manageable) and that they will win. ‘Creating their own reality’ sort of thing, though I prefer my Iain M Banks quote to describe it.

This mind set is reinforced by the groups they belong to, where to join and be accepted you have to acquiesce to their dominant ideology.

You have hit on another very good point as well, the nexus between neo-liberal ‘economics’
and neo-conservative militarism. Both are essentially ideologies (or states of mind) that require a decoupling from reality as neither stand up to objective facts. Both also systematically underestimate risk as a factor, often by orders of magnitude.

I have noticed that people steeped in neo-liberalism do more easily jump to the neo-con point of view. After all, if you have spent your live in a fantasy land, what difference is another fantasy land…. plus there is an inherent authoritarianism within neo-liberal thought, how do you control the proles when you throw them under an economic bus?

Neo-conservatism is very much the ‘hard edge’ of neo-liberalism too, if you don’t willingly accept a neo-liberal economic ideology…it will be forced on you . We saw this in Iraq, after the invasion, neo-liberals took over the running of the country and systematically destroyed it economically.

The first case of this was of course Chile where Milton Friedman and his acolytes went to in droves. With those pesky unions, etc, killed or banged up in torture central they could run riot. Never heard any of them shed a single tear for the loss of democracy and freedom, or all the torture and death, it was a great success they claim.

Plus ever heard of a mainstream neo-liberal economist bemoaning the huge spending on the military and ‘national security’, never, rather they whine endlessly about some granny somewhere who still has a few gold fillings left that haven’t yet been ripped out to pay for a loaf of bread.

As for nuclear winter, just because I can’t see an long term alternative for technological humanity, doesn’t mean there isn’t one…plus let’s not do it this week I’ve got some things planned.

@OldSkeptic 9 Sept. 2014 #64671

Nice and concise encapsulation of the Neo-Thought-Collective (Ersatz Theology). An interesting exposé of the NTC can be found in Philip Mirowski Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown ISBN-13: 978-1-78168-079-7. In conjunction with Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable ISBN 978-1-1410-3459-1 almost assures the collapse of the Neo-Regime now constitutionally enshrouded in power. Systemic collapse (the black swan) is about the only way to remove or discredit the ideology from the public domain; a costly enterprise but less so than civil hostilities would produce. The NTC are destroyers, incapable of developing or maintaining complex systems; they demonstrate no ability to restore the economic system they are responsible for managing, yet they insist on conducting warfare upon their perceived competition. The NTC demonstrate no ability to self-correct. This promises to end poorly, but it will end the ability of the hegemon to rule.