I’m not going to waste a lot of time on the job report, obviously a job report with 411,000 census jobs out of 431,000 total jobs is not, actually, a good one. Despite their spin, the Obama administration knows this. They will ram through the jobs bill and try and dump it into the economy as fast as possible. 200 billion is, actually, about as much as the real stimulus per year in the stimulus bill (the tax cuts had no effect on hiring because they went to rent seeking corporate profits). They will also seek to dump as much of the TARP slush fund as they can. The insiders seem to have finally realized that if they don’t get a real job recovery before the election, Obama could lose his Congressional working majority or maybe even his majority, and if that happens, the rest of his Presidency will be spent arguing over the equivalent of white stains on dresses.
Can they pull it off? Well, 200 billion plus another couple hundred billion from TARP is real money. On the other hand, they are adept at spending tons of money and getting very little for it, plus the Republicans will be as obstructionist as possible: they know that their election chances hang in the balance too. Add to that the stupidity of conservative Democrats, more concerned with deficits than jobs, and the situation is dicey, especially as Europe goes into hardcore Hooverism with austerity budget after austerity budget and China frets over a housing market which a Bank of China official noted is now further into bubble territory than the US’s was when it burst.
Hang on tight, folks, the economy is going to get a honking big syringe full of adrenaline at the same time as it’s strung out and another bunch of doctors are giving it a pile of benzies. Hope it can take it.
anonymous
But how can this be? Every republican politician (and their vocal supporters always) says that the gov’t. never can and never does create jobs.
It’s past time to say that 411,000 gov’t. jobs is evidence of what the gov’t. should do. Look at the problems the country and the planet faces and begin employing people to address them.
The Millionaires Club does not create a large number of jobs for the middle class and poor because they do not want to create a large number of jobs, that is, they do not want the benefits of gov’t. spending to go to people who not in their class. That has been their consistent voting pattern for more than a decade.
In days gone by, these budgets would have been called “draconian budgets.” But that doesn’t look good for the people who are imposing the cuts so we need some nice Puritanical “self-denial” phrasing.
Stirling Newberry
This is the point where we find out whether Obama is a great President in the making, or not. The evidence is that the private recovery based on bailing out the banks is not working. It is a direct contradiction to what he would like to believe. The evidence indicates that government demand, and only government demand, is not being reduced by uncertainty – by which a Keynesian means not risk, but that there are factors beyond the prediction of the market.
Such as, for example. whether Obama is a great President in the making, or not.
anonymous
This is the point where we find out whether Obama is a great President in the making, or not.
Personally, I think there is already enough evidence that he is not one (that is, not a great president in the making). I’m wondering when there will be enough evidence for enough of the population for them to judge him a failure. Apparently, this is not enough evidence. Until then, hope springs eternal.
Lori
I know that Obama, or someone in Congress, said at one point that the bulk of the stimulus fund would be spent in the months preceeding the November 10 elections. I’ll have to see if I can dig this up. I think this has always been the strategy. Let things suck until right before the election and then show some improvement.
Too clever by half.
anonymous
Obama, or someone in Congress, said at one point that the bulk of
the stimulus fund would be spent in the months preceeding the November
10 elections.
You might find this gov’t.-run website useful:
http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx
It includes a graph titled “Overview of Funding” that breaks down the
spending by category (“Tax Benefits,” “Contracts, Grants, Loans,” and
“Entitlements”) and by how much has been spent and how much remains to
be spent.
(“preceeding” -> “preceding”
Your web browser likely has the ability to perform real-time
spell-checking, if that matters to you.)
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
Stirling Newberry:
Did you see Joshua Green’s article over at The Atlantic the other day? He basically admits that Obama puts too much faith in people who are supposed to be the best and the brightest, though I never thought Bernanke or Geithner were that bright. Or at least they stupid to please whomever pulls their strings.
Anonymous
Considering the number of people who are up against the end of UI benefits I doubt that there can be much improvement in spending. When you have no money to pay bills or rent or buy food you don’t buy clothes or make-up or shoes or go to the movies. I think the best thing the Congress and the President could do is extend benefits, including the COBRA subsidies, to the end of the year and make it retroactive for those who have already lost benefits. Damn the deficit.
anonymous
I think the best thing the Congress and the President could do is extend benefits, including the COBRA subsidies, to the end of the year and make it retroactive for those who have already lost benefits.
Even better would be to pay those people who are unemployed to do productive work until the private economy offers them a higher paying job, not just to the end of the year but indefinitely.
For example, here is a proposal by the economist Bill Mitchell that he calls the Job Guarantee.
Anonymous
Even better would be to pay those people who are unemployed to do productive work until the private economy offers them a higher paying job, not just to the end of the year but indefinitely.
I agree. I would love to do something. I want to work again. I want to put money back into the economy… if I had the money.