So, now we have two sentences for Paul Manafort. According to guidance, they should have added up to between 19 and 24 years, they come in to about seven-and-a-half years.
This is bad.
It isn’t bad because he should be locked away for longer in any grand sense: US sentences are too long. It is bad because, he, a rich, white, and white collar criminal with political connections is being sentenced way below guideline when people are locked away for far longer for crimes like petty theft or possessing marijuana.
It is wrong because it is unequal.
Suddenly, when the criminal is rich, white, and politically connected, judges find that they can and will sentence to less–much less–than mandatory minimums.
What a surprise.
That said, Manafort is 69 and will soon be 70. If these sentences, plus one more still to come, are actually served, there’s a good chance he’ll die in prison.
Unsaid, also, is that these sorts of crimes aren’t usually even prosecuted. The prosecution of these crimes was a political decision, for a political crime. (This isn’t to argue they shouldn’t be prosecuted: Laws should be either enforced or gotten rid of.)
The real question, which won’t be answered until Manafort’s final trial is over, is whether or not Trump will pardon him.
Unless Trump is insane, the answer is yes. If Manafort isn’t pardoned, everyone else will cut deals with Mueller.
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different clue
Trump is sly, clever and shrewd. But he is not deeply intelligent. He has no respect or even a backward glance or a care for his servants whom he regards as sheets of human toilet paper, to be discarded after use. He does not even flush them down. He just leaves them lying around.
Who can predict what such a one will do?
Hugh
It’s all about class. I don’t know about elsewhere but in the US we are trained to deny that class exists. So we still get surprised when we get hit over the head by an especially egregious example of it. People like Manafort, Stone, and the Trumps are not under any such illusions. They know that the system is rigged in their favor, that they can do pretty much anything they want, and that the odds are they never will be called on any of it, they can lie away most of what little they are called on, and for whatever remains beyond that their lawyers will see that the consequences are few or none, and delayed as long as possible, and finally that the system far from holding them to account will aid and abet them.
If it was you or I, they would throw away the key. But Manafort? Of course not. I mean the name of his first judge was Thomas Selby Ellis III. Now you might say that we should not judge the judge by his name. But seriously, do you think someone named Thomas Selby Ellis III is one of the proles, or represents us?
Trump’s whole career and business model is based on money laundering, insurance fraud, bank fraud, tax fraud, wire fraud, bribery, and extortion. So should we really be surprised that both to become President and/or as President, he has conspired with a foreign power, violated the Emoluments clause, intimidated witnesses, and obstructed justice blatantly and frequently? Or that in the face of this, not only are the “Law and Order” Republicans protecting him and his criminality, but so is Nancy “No Impeachment” Pelosi?
Chiron
@Hugh
“Trump’s whole career and business model is based on money laundering, insurance fraud, bank fraud, tax fraud, wire fraud, bribery, and extortion. So should we really be surprised that both to become President and/or as President, he has conspired with a foreign power, violated the Emoluments clause, intimidated witnesses, and obstructed justice blatantly and frequently? Or that in the face of this, not only are the “Law and Order” Republicans protecting him and his criminality, but so is Nancy “No Impeachment” Pelosi?”
My take on Trump is that he is being protected by powerful interests and is not Putin/Russia. The main reason he run was to nuke the Obama Iran deal, is quite possible the Jared Kushner is who is actually running the White House, did you know that Netanyahu slept in the bed of little Jared when he was in NY?
Donna Curtis
Color me unsympathetic. I hope he dies in prison but he’ll probably get pardoned. Trump is indeed narcissistic and mercurial but somebody around him will likely remind him to pardon Manafort.
Hugh
Speaking of class, I am seeing a lot of play on the 50 people charged with wire fraud and other crimes in order to get their kids in elite universities. For me, this is very much an elites and rich against elites and rich kind of affair.
Universities are another example of the deep corruption and classism in our society. Elite universities are less about education and more about credentialism and connections. A mediocre product of one of these will do better, and usually far better, than a top notch graduate from a “lesser” university. If you are a legacy and an academic non-entity, like Dubya, you still get into Yale. If your family puts its name on building, bingo you are again on the inside track for admission. Or if you have a connection, like Trump at the Ivy UPenn, a brother who knew one of the admission’s officer or family friends who knew people at Wharton, you get in. The elites are not for the likes of you or me. We don’t have the back and side doors, and we sure as hell don’t have the money. Undergraduate tuition at Yale, for example, this year is $51,400 and that does include room, board, fees, books, and supplies.
Thing is first tier state schools, so-called flagship universities, and increasingly second tier ones, are already beyond the reach of all but the rich and upper middle class, unless you are willing to take on ruinous life-long debt. At the same time, many of these schools ruthlessly and systemically exploit often underprivileged students in high profile sports. Most of these are used and thrown away. They don’t make it to the pros and they don’t get an education.
Hugh
Donna, Manafort was charged today in New York on 16 counts, including mortgage fraud. These are state charges and can’t be pardoned by Trump.
Hugh
Oops, the $51,400 I cited above does NOT cover anything but tuition.
Willy
Trump is far too busy with important business such as Mar-a-Lago to be considering pardoning strategy. But the Trump family consigliere, the shrewd and wise Rudy Giuliani, will most certainly be advising The Donald about what to do via an upcoming Fox and Friends interview.
Willy
OT, but what we need around here is a house evangelical. Such a regular could be useful in helping us to interpret what is turning out to be, a most mysterious will of God.
metamars
IMNSHO, Trump should immediately pardon everybody that Mueller takes down, including Cohen. And each time he does so, he should address the nation and explain why the Mueller witchhunt is politically motivated, with the Deep State essentially colluding with Democrats (and some Republicans). Trump should contrast the thuggish tactics employed by Mueller against the Trumpistas (solitary confinement, swat team arrests, etc.), vs. the kid gloves and non-prosecution of the Clintonistas. Trump should educate the nation on just how corrupt the FBI and DOJ are, at the top. Furthermore, Trump should educate that getting people thrown in jail when they help any non-totally-swampish person run for President is a good way to guarantee that everybody will be afraid to join the team of any such candidate in the future. (Of course, Trump will never admit that he is only partly outside the swamp.)
Furthermore, even if Trump’s hands are tied with respect to having Mueller investigated by the DOJ, he can hire his own investigators, as well as educate the public about what is already known (and strongly suspected) about Mueller. (I’ve heard allegations that Mueller was a bag man for uranium one payments….)
What he shouldn’t do is just whine away in his damn tweets. As Bugs Bunny would say, “What a maroon!” I frankly wonder if Trump’s wimpish ways, in dealing with the Deep State, aren’t tied to low levels of testosterone. Between that and early stage dementia, I certainly haven’t tired of Trump’s winning. I have tired of his losing.
metamars
@Donna Curtis
” I hope he dies in prison”
Oh, really? What if the Deep State decides to take out OCA, and/or her campaign staff? After all, to whatever extent she’s truly disruptive and sincere, she is also a threat to the swamp.
What better way to teach upstarts on the Left that they shouldn’t challenge the status quo than to throw some of them in prison, too? Since they’re all in on the Green New Deal, their solitary confinement cells needn’t have any electric lights. To save energy, and hence, fossil fuels, ya know.
Do tell.
Willy
What’s the Deep State? Everybody seems to have their own take.
Mine is that after one opens up all the matryoshka dolls and gets past all the russian oligarchs, the american kleptocrats, the Koch brothers.. that they’ll find Deep Roy controlling everything.
Temporarily Sane
The thing is, a corrupt and broken system won’t be fixed by throwing a few token scoundrels into the slammer. Serious structural changes are required to reform a system that rewards sociopathic behavior. Punishing individuals is a necessary step but unless changes are made to the institution itself nothing much will change. If Bernie and the new “progressive” Dems are seriously committed to making the United States a saner, fairer and more functional country they will have to propose more than the easy sell of individual punishments.
Hugh
Well, to bring back the discussion to inequality and predation, I would note if Trump’s spending priorities are any guide, his proposed slashing cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and the EPA indicate they are at the very heart of the deep state. In other words, beware the poor, the old, and clean water and air.
metamars, “Trump should educate. . .” does that ever sound like the beginning of a punchline to a million different jokes.
metamars
@ TemporarilySane
“The thing is, a corrupt and broken system won’t be fixed by throwing a few token scoundrels into the slammer. ”
Yes, of course. By whatever groups of reformers take power.
I’ve heard first hand accounts of corrupt judges (from Walter Burien, no less), I’ve read about Congressioinal aides being corrupted by their future employers (hence writing future employer friendly legislation, the people be damned), the military procurement process is a giant, corporate welfare pigsty, regulatory capture is ubiquitous (case study of Vioxx killing maybe half a million, e.g.), Federal government agencies acting like Nazis (e.g., FBI killing Branch Davidians using CS gas), high level political assassiinations (JFK, RFK, MLK) with no serious accountability, trigger happy local police who get away with murder, US murderous foreign policy (see “Killing Hope”, probably same regime change crap being done to Venezuela) etc.
I see corruption EVERYWHERE. To root it all out is a gargantuan task.
In the mean time, to root for a Deep State creep like Mueller to take down somebody like white collar criminal Manafort, while Mueller not only lives his life outside a jail cell, but gets lauded by clueless Congress critters, is just more evidence of how deep the corruption goes. No matter how much somebody hates the Trumpistas (or “Trumpanzees”, as my cousin likes to call them), who is the BIGGER ENEMY? It’s pretty clear to me.
I mean, if you lived in Nazi Germany, and a Heinrich Himmler appointed stooge imprisoned your landlord for life, because he illegally jacked up your rent, would you cheer for this situation? Who is your bigger enemy, assuming you’re honest and decent? The head of the SS, and his minions, or your thieving landlord?
Willy
Who is your bigger enemy, assuming you’re honest and decent? The head of the SS, and his minions, or your thieving landlord?
Teams, teams, teams. Aaron Hernandez got jailed despite being a Patriot. The reason for runaway corruption is fans of teams gone amok. It’s a diversion away from ethicality. In a better world, we’d keep it simple and protect ethicality and punish corruption regardless of the team one’s playing for.
Until The Deep State is clearly and concisely defined, it’s just a mythical made up team for the (too) many citizens wired as fanatics, to root against.
ponderere
I think Trump will pardon him but not until after 2020. His treatment is unfair, but less unfair than a lot of people in prison.
Ian brings up an interesting point, perhaps inadvertently. Manafort is \”rich, white and politically connected.\” Does he get worse treatment if he isn\’t white? Is he still rich, rich enough to weather prosecution of the federal government? Is he connected other than as a pariah? I think the answer to all those is no. If it weren\’t for the judge going against the sentencing guidelines he would die in prison. He still may. To me the enlightening element is just how cruel and unfair our many tiered system of justice is, and that so many people support it (not saying Ian does). As long as the victim checks the right boxes its ok. We\’re adding politics to the criteria, and no one bats an eye. Once again we are in a situation of choosing between raising all boats, and pulling one down to the level of everyone else. Far too many want to see Manafort suffer from a cruel system, while otherwise criticizing its unfairness. There will be revenge for Mueller\’s witch hunt, I wonder how many will remember their support then.
StewartM
Metamars
I mean, if you lived in Nazi Germany, and a Heinrich Himmler appointed stooge imprisoned your landlord for life, because he illegally jacked up your rent, would you cheer for this situation?
Yes. Doesn’t have to mean that I have to approve of everything else they do (the Nazis were also the first to identify tobacco as a health hazard–does that mean they were all wrong about that too, and we should shut down our anti-smoking campaigns?)
Mind you, I’m not against Nazi analogies here–which is apt, because Germany before Nazism had its own ‘deep state’–the military in particular, but also the civil service and judiciary, who were always hostile to the young Wiemar republic and any notions of democracy. This deep state, particularly the military, influenced political decisions to a degree unparalleled among contemporaries. Germany in essence had two ambassadors to every country, the nominal ambassador, and the military attache, and the latter were often just as if not more influential in setting political policy towards that country. By 1916, in WWI, it’s two generals–Ludendorff and Hindenburg, the former in particular, who are running the country.
This deep state was fine with inviting Hitler to power in 1933–yes, they thought he was crude, and boorish, and a loudmouth, but they appreciated he could bring a degree of popular support to a conservative government governing under Article 48 of the Wiemar constitution, which allowed a government to act without Reichstag consent ‘in an emergency’, which it did starting in 1930. They also thought Hitler to be a simpleton who could be manipulated, coerced, and/or intimidated into doing their bidding, and besides they largely agreed with much of his agenda.
But they were wrong. Hitler was smarter, more cunning, and certainly more ruthless than they had ever imagined. After 1934 (‘the night of the long knives’) Hitler reduces all those bureaucrats and generals to subservient, flattering, groveling, underlings to a degree no Kaiser had ever done. Hitler triumphs over Germany’s deep state.
But please note–just because the German deep state was evil (it indeed was) as was America’s, that Hitler’s triumph over it was not a triumph of light over darkness. No, it fact, Hitler’s triumph made everything worse. I fear that would prove true for a Trump triumph. Know you historical analogies.
Hugh
I think the deep state, whatever it is, is a distraction. The people who hold the real power are the rich. The rich own the elites. They own the deep state too. All this said we need big government because we need government to do big things. And we need bureaucracies, a military, intelligence agencies. But we need for them to be accountable and transparent in so far as that is possible, and we need them to serve the many, not the few.
It just says so much about the degeneracy of our politics and political system that a demented huckster like Trump sits at its apex while Republican officeholders cower before him followed not that far behind by cowardly Democrats like Nancy “No Impeachment” Pelosi. It is bad enough that the emperor has no clothes, but our whole political class is naked as well.
Donna Curtis
@Metamars: When this whole thing first started I thought it was just distraction thrown around for people to chew on but as Mueller’s investigation proceeded I started to change my mind. Now, some two years later, I’m convinced that many people around Trump were involved in fraud. I want these people punished. Considering Manafort’s age and considering what should be an adequate sentence together means Manafort will most likely die in prison so, yes, I hope he gets adequate jailtime and dies in prison.
@Hugh: I did not know about the state charges. Thank you for informing me.
Now… if only we had done some “witch-hunting” around Wall Street in 2007/2008.
ponderer
Well, after Mueller is done you can expect investigations on corruption in the FBI and ties to the Democratic party. The Steele dossier’s being used for warrants was poorly planned and required fraud at multiple levels. This will be in the public eye right before 2020 too. I think the Democrats got played by Trump and hard. For all their complaining they have done all the heavy lifting of getting him in office and keeping him there. Trump has out smarted his enemies at every turn. It’s really impressive from the part of a neutral observer.
From the Mueller investigation so far we have learned that there was no collusion with Russia by anyone in the Trump administration. That’s almost incredible in itself. We learned that the Hillary campaign (possibly Hillary herself) used connections in the FBI to push opposition research as evidence for treason against another candidate, after colluding with the DNC to rob Sanders of the nomination. They started a FBI investigation to spy on Trump and failed miserably. Now Trump is in charge of all the intelligence agencies that were supposed to thwart his election and he has access to all of that evidence. The Trump administration has been slowly leaking this information to the press, while playing the rube. It’s also become known that not only did Clinton break the law by using her own email server and sending classified email (no she won’t be running in 2020), everyone in the Obama administration knew about it. Further, so did the Chinese because they hacked her private server and sent a copy of every message to themselves. The FBI knew about the hack and refused to investigate it, before clearing Hillary of all responsibility. Now the people calling for persuing the low level crimes of some Trump associates are faced with the much larger crimes of the Democrat establishment actually abusing their offices and the constitution.
Still, the vast majority of the people who didn’t vote for Trump still think he’s an idiot. I did too so it’s not like I am immune. Maybe we should take a step back and realize we were outsmarted.
Willy
I worked with a few technical incompetents who were in reality, all about the animal intelligence. At the end of the day I did all the work and they got all the reward. This is their time. The Age of the Dark Triad has come.
metamars
@StewartM
Well, my analogy sure isn’t perfect. You are right about Hitler turning the table on industrialists that had supported him, thinking they could manipulate him.
However, the point that I was trying to make is that Mueller’s charge is based on a fraud, and represents a control mechanism of the Deep State, which is a far bigger threat than Trump. About the most evil things about Trump are a willingness to “take” (i.e., steal) a country’s oil, and kill the innocent families of terrorists. He also bombed the legitimate government of Syria for patently fraudulent reasons. I read the interview of one of the Syrian widows of the first bombing, whose government had been engaged in an existential struggle against terrorists. Trump’s actions were thoroughly contemptible.
If we ignore his apparent willingness to destroy Venezuela, which hasn’t yet nearly reached the level of killing that went on in Syria under Obama/Clinton, Trump’s evil side is still far less potent than that of his 2 predecessors. Even if he showed any serious competence in taking down the Deep State, I can’t see much basis for thinking him anywhere near as evil as a Hitler, who was obviously on another level of evil beyond Obama, Clinton, and GW Bush.
So, if you accept the premise of Deep State vs. Trump, you are still left with the question of “who do you prefer?” and, if Trump, then “what should he do about it?”
Trump pardoning his campaign staff would be a baby step. It’s been plausibly suggested by Larry Klayman that Trump has been getting lousy legal advice, by lawyers who are more concerned about their future career prospects, than they are about Trump. To that I would add, they are more concerned about their future career prospects can they are about rescuing America from Deep State control.