Tiresome Reminder of China’s Tech and Industry Lead

China has the lead in about 80 percent of tech fields:

China has a “stunning lead” in 37 out of 44 critical and emerging technologies as Western democracies lose a global competition for research output, a security think tank said on Thursday after tracking defence, space, energy and biotechnology.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said its study showed that, in some fields, all of the world’s top 10 research institutions are based in China.

There is every reason to believe this will be nearly 100% in a decade or so. China is now catching up in pharma, for example:

Among the drugs in clinical research worldwide, approximately 35% are original or co-developed by Chinese companies, ranking second globally.

Then there’s the universities:

It’s all over, except the screaming. The US is, under DOGE, cutting science funding. Oh, administrative overhead needed to be reduced, no question, but you don’t do that by suddenly slashing it 75 percent or so, that leaves no time to adjust.

Tech and science, as I have tiresomely pointed out over and over again, always moves to the country with the manufacturing floor lead. There is a delay, but it is now past.

Meanwhile, as of 2024 China controls 35 percent of industrial output, up from 31 percent in 2022.

China is moving towards the sort of economic and technological dominance the US enjoyed after World War II. It’s that significant.

And notice that the tech and science lead is accelerating.

Everything in geopolitics, economics and trade needs to take this into account. Nothing is more important except ecological issues.

People talk about a multipolar world, but what is actually happening is a new cold war, with the American side weaker and more backward. The USSR lost not because of some mythical inferior system, but because it started behind and stayed behind, with less population and fewer resources. It competed in some techs for a while, but was never able to establish a sustained lead in any significant number.

People wonder why I suggest most countries should be cutting a deal with or at least slightly aligning towards China. It’s because they’ve already won, and being on the stronger, more prosperous side is superior to being on the weaker, less prosperous side. Further, the sooner countries cut a deal, the better that deal will be.

The US is flailing about with the remains of its power, but the closest analogy to its position is Britain in 1918. The American Empire still exists, but everyone with sense can see that its days are numbered. The analogy isn’t perfect, there’s no Great War, and America is a continental power, but the same power overhang without the ability to sustain it exists.

This informs everything: There’s the US withdrawal from Europe, which is underway; The French being kicked out of Africa, because China can supply everything they need; America’s attempts to cannibalize its vassals for as much tech and industry as they can get; and so on.

America’s currently pressuring Taiwan and TSMC to give them their two million fab tech. 85 percent of Taiwanese oppose this, but the US is piling the pressure on.

Thing is, in time, it won’t matter. China’s catching up anyway.

America’s burning down its old Empire to try and stay in the game. But its vassals are fools if they cooperate. There is nothing the US can offer at this point which is worth the long term cost of submitting to US looting. This is true of Ukraine as well, by the way, and it appears they’re going to sign a minerals deal with Europe instead of the US, which is not ideal, but at least they won’t be screwed both ways to Sunday.

Disentangling from a flailing, declining Empire is dangerous and difficult. But it has to be done, by anyyone with any sense. Give America its splendid isolation as it falls into decline, or join it.

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