China has the lead in about 80% of tech fields:
China has a “stunning lead” in 37 out of 44 critical and emerging technologies as Western democracies lose a global competition for research output, a security think tank said on Thursday after tracking defence, space, energy and biotechnology.The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said its study showed that, in some fields, all of the world’s top 10 research institutions are based in China.
Among the drugs in clinical research worldwide, approximately 35% are original or co-developed by Chinese companies, ranking second globally.
Then there’s the universities:
It’s all over but the screaming. The US is, under DOGE, cutting science funding. Oh, administrative overhead needed to be reduced, no question, but you don’t do that by suddenly slashing it 75% or so, that leaves no time to adjust.
Tech and science, as I have tiresomely pointed out over and over again, always moves to the country with the manufacturing floor lead. There is a delay, but it is now past.
Meanwhile, as of 2024 China controls 35% of industrial output, up from 31% in 2022.
China is moving towards the sort of economic and technological dominance the US enjoyed after World War II. It’s that significant.
And notice that the tech and science lead is accelerating.
Everything in geopolitics, economics and trade needs to take this into account. Nothing is more important except ecological issues.
People talk about a multipolar world, but what is actually happening is a new cold war, with the American side weaker and more backward. The USSR lost not because of some mythical inferior system, but because it started behind and stayed behind, with less population and fewer resources. It competed in some techs for a while, but was never able to establish a sustained lead in any significant number.
People wonder why I suggest most countries should be cutting a deal with and at least slightly aligning towards China. It’s because they’ve already won, and being on the stronger, more prosperous side is superior to being on the weaker, less prosperous side. Further, the sooner countries cut a deal, the better that deal will be.
The US is flailing about with the remains of its power, but the closest analogy to its position is Britain in 1918. The Empire still exists, but everyone with sense can see that its days are numbered. The analogy isn’t perfect, there was no Great War, and America is a continental power, but the same power overhang without the ability to sustain exists.
This informs everything: the US withdrawal from Europe, which is underway. The French being kicked out of Africa, because China can supply everything they need. America’s attempts to cannibalize its vassals for as much tech and industry as they can get, and so on.
Thing is, in time, it won’t matter. China’s catching up anyway.
America’s burning down its old Empire to try and stay in the game. But its vassals are fools if they cooperate. There is nothing the US can offer at this point which is worth the long term cost of submitting to US looting. This is true of Ukraine as well, by the way, and it appears they’re going to sign a minerals deal with Europe instead of the US, which is not ideal, but at least they won’t be screwed both ways to Sunday.
Disentangling from a flailing declining Empire is dangerous and difficult. But it has to be done. By everyone with any sense. Give America its splendid isolation as it falls into decline, or join it.
Gaianne
Tiresome the reminder may be, but again your writing is clear and concise, Ian, so in fact it is welcome.
Even Americans need to give America its splendid isolation, Hard task, that.
–Gaianne
Ian Welsh
I doubt, but could be wrong, that the retractions are significant in the high impact papers. According to the article the retractions are mostly in small hospitals and universities. Still, the rate could be fairly high (more than .3%, which is presumably a fraction) and not change the overall picture.