The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Trump’s Budget Will Cause A Recession

The new budget is going to hurt the economy massively. There are 4.5 trillion in tax cuts to high earners and corporations and 880 billion in cuts from “Energy and Commerce”.

Energy and commerce probably sounds innocuous, but that committee overseas healthcare and it has only 200 billion in spending that isn’t health care, which means cuts to Medicaid, CHIP and ACA.

DOGE has put in some massive cuts to research, but the cuts hit research hospitals hard and are going to result in a lot of loss of hospital jobs because of loss of overhead.

Tariffs will also hit the economy hard, especially tariffs on energy, where there’s little ability to domestic producers to eat cost increases.

Tax cuts to high earners and corporations don’t increase the strength of the real economy: the money will go to buyouts, stock buybacks, executive salaries and luxury goods, not to investment in production and new jobs. Cuts to the civil service also have an obvious negative effect on the economy, though some will lead to higher profits due to no longer needing to comply with regulations and laws. (IRS cuts to auditors are the worst of these.)

If you want to re-industrialize you have to force companies to invest in new production, which means ending things like stock buy backs, executive options, and various other ways for corporations and rich people to juice their income without doing something productive.

In other words this is a very good budget if you’re rich, and a very bad budget if you aren’t. It’s going to hit red states harder than blue states, since they are overall more dependent on federal budget spending.

This budget will make America weaker, damage administrative capacity and hurt everyone but maybe to the top 5% or so.

Welcome to Trump’s America.

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4 Comments

  1. different clue

    A question that legacy Blueberals for Harris might have fun asking various magas after the magas have become visibly poorer due to President Musk and Assistant Vice President Trump . . . but only if they are ready for a physical fight . . . might be: ” hey, uhhh . . . Is America Great Again Yet? ”

    Pardon my spitefulness, but, I hope that all the leopards eat all the faces until every leopard is full and every face is eaten off the front of its skull.

  2. NR

    Medicaid is the only thing keeping a bunch of rural hospitals out there open. A lot of rural hospitals are going to close under this budget.

    A 2023 analysis by the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families found that Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) cover 47% of children and 18% of adults in small towns and rural areas, compared to 40% of children and 15% of adults in urban areas.

    Rural voters went overwhelmingly for Trump and Republicans. Trump won over 80% of the vote in some rural counties. And now those same rural voters are going to lose health care for them and their children under Trump and the Republicans’ budget. People are going to die because of this.

    All because rural voters decided they hate brown people more than they love their own families.

  3. Mark Level

    You get support for Oligarchy & looting from both parties, the ReThuglicans are just more open about doing it. And President Elon promised to crash the Economy, it will be another “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” You can whip the Precariat further into shape and push them out on the streets. Americans don’t have the self-respect to fight back.

    D.C., none of those swine in the Dem party would piss on the likes of you or me if we were on fire, don’t kid yourself. And Genocide Joe & Kop Kamala enacted the genocide of 400-500,000 Native Palestinians over 14 months after Oct. 2023, so any paeans you sing to their “decency” or “humanity” (gag!) will wring quite hollow. But yes, kick down and hate on other ‘Muricans, don’t blame the Billionaire Class. And be so gratified (as you are) that Obama and the Dems openly stole the nomination from Bernie Sanders twice, 2016 and 2020, to install Trump and the Wrecking Crew. Hey, at least Kamala wanted to cage all the Immigrant Kids and mass-expel their parents to the home countries destroyed by Clinton-Bush-Biden endless Imperial Wars.

    And as to NR, the Zionist mask has slipped, once again. You just change a few words in the Blood Libel about the Palestinians, “If only the Arabs loved their children more than they hated Jews we wouldn’t need to exterminate them and take all their land.” Okay, I changed the last 11 words in the name of honesty, but I think you know the original quote as well as the back of your hand. If you don’t subscribe to it, feel free to clarify.

  4. All because rural voters decided they hate brown people more than they love their own families.
    —–

    According to CNN’s exit polls Trump won a lower percentage of white voters in 2024 compared to 2020.
    According to the AP exit polls Trumps vote among black people went from 8% in 2016 to 20% in 2024. Likewise, 28% of Hispanics voter for him in 2020, while 42% voted for him in 2024.

    “If Democrats nominate Joe Biden, he may win, and we’ll have four years of weak, feckless Democratic leadership. And then, in four years, he’ll be defeated by a Republican Party even more openly white nationalist. If you nominate an Obama redux, you’ll just get a worse Trump redux.” –Mike Gravel (D)

    Maybe the Democratic party should stop spending their time punching hippies, shrilling for war and corporations, and running anti-establishment Dems out of the party. Perhaps though they’d rather lose if the alternative is looking in the mirror and standing against a corrupt dystopian establishment.

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