The US thru a kitchen sink of sanctions at Russia after the start of the Ukraine war, including freezing their foreign assets. The result?
The number is exaggerated, given Russian inflation, but even inflation adjusted, Russia’s doing fine.
It is impossible to choke out Russia with sanctions if China isn’t willing to go a long. (India not cooperating is the cherry on top.) Cannot be done. Impossible.
In fact, sanctions against Russia have been a huge favor to it, forcing a vast surge in import substitution, improving its industry, creating a booming economy whose only real problem is inflation. Russian oligarchs have been forced to spend their money and effort in Russia instead of wasting their money in the West. Meanwhile the sanctions have damaged Europe massively, though somewhat to the benefit of America, since much energy-intensive industry in Europe is shutting down and moving to the US.
If Trump wants peace for Ukraine with Russia he’s going to have to offer a good deal. Threats won’t cut it. Or just wait for the Russians to win and impose a peace.
Since Trump appears to be reducing aid to Ukraine, that will happen sooner than otherwise. Perhaps it’s his real strategy, or more likely, he’s simply incoherent. Russia halting along the current lines would be stupid of them, since they’re advancing inexorably and all reports are of significant Ukrainian manpower shortages.
Trump’s always been a bully, but Russia isn’t one of America’s vassals or satrapies. It’s a junior ally in the Chinese sphere, and Trump doesn’t have the economic or military leverage to make it do anything. The only country in the world which can force Russia is China, and China isn’t going to help America v.s. Russia under any likely Trump policy regime.
Some Guy
I had a random thought the other day.
From the perspective of a US Neocon, the most insane geopolitical thing the US has done over the past couple of decades (even more so than putting Iraq in Shia hands) is turning China and Russia into friends united against a common foe.
Which puts into a sort of mirrored perspective the current threats by Trump against Mexico and Canada. In the same way that causing industrial giant China to unite with resource giant Russia was insane, splitting the US apart from the resources and industrial strength of Canada and Mexico (combined population greater than Russia) is insane in just the same manner (from a neocon, US should rule the world perspective).
I generally laugh off the people who think Trump is some sort of Russian pawn, but you could almost believe there is some foreign power playing 11d chess vs the US and getting it to destroy itself.
Purple Library Guy
Yup. I think he actually floated the idea of getting China to lean on Russia and I’m like oh, sure, that’ll work! “Hey, Xi Jinping, I’m going to be coming after you as soon as I’m done with this Ukraine stuff . . . so, help me fix it!”
Oakchair
Some of what is going on is people in the west getting high on their own propaganda.
Of course we should be able to get China to help us defeat Russia given that:
Putin/Russia are evil, dangerous to the world, and will keep starting unprovoked wars against neighbors to the detriment of all of mankind. The West is for peace, prosperity and freedom for all.
It wasn’t any different 25 years ago likely longer.
The American version of “War is peace” is “fight them over there so we don’t have to here.”
In the 70’s and 80’s we armed and funded Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Then we were at war with Al-Qaeda, then we armed and aided them in Syria and Libya.
“The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”
Wonder if Ukraine will go a similar way.
someofparts
Funny that he joked about thinking Spain was in the BRICS and yet a strategy of marshalling, even claiming, resources in this hemisphere is the response I would expect from someone who sees the growing power and consolidation of Asia.
Jan Wiklund
Norwegian economist Erik Reinert, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_S._Reinert, told me he used to – tongue in cheek – advice poor countries to offend the Nato bunch to get sanctioned. As long as Sout Africa and Rhodesia (as it was called then) were sanctioned their economies went well. But when they were admitted into the well-behaved club again they had to adapt to the rules and their economies collapsed.
As Lincoln said (according to Reinert), free trade is good, but we can’t afford it. And free trade at that time was child’s play compared to today.
Jan Wiklund
Now, budget surplus is not automatically good. It’s no use for a state to save in its own currency as it could make as much of it as it likes, just pressing a button. A budget surplus would rather indicates a failure of investment in future production. Or perhaps an economy full of bottlenecks, since the only use of budgetary surpluses would be to curb inflation and you say inflation is high regardless of surpluses. It seems that there are more money in the economy than things to buy for the money, which is not a high rating of the Russian economy…
Ian Welsh
The chart is revenue, not surplus.
Yes, free trade is stupid as an overall policy. Trade should always be managed. There may be sectors where your trade is free, but not all. (If you really can’t produce it, or if you’re a very small country, some free trade can be a good thing, in certain sectors. Bannanas if you’re in the north, minerals you don’t have, capital goods you can’t produce yet.)
Mark Level
A timely post. Whatever slim hopes I had that the Trump admin would be less insanely bellicose or deluded than Brain-Bleed Biden’s, I now directly drop, & apologize for my naive hope. (Really, Obama should have taught me the futility of hope at least 15 years ago.)
I’ve noted to friends how Trump’s ignorance & blustering are the exact opposite of Teddy Roosevelt’s (running an Empire on the way up) “Speak softly, & carry a Big Stick.” Coming into office with mostly futile threats against a plethora of “rivals”– Ghina, Panama, Cuba, Canada, Mexico, Spain (!), okay, in the case of Greenland, with a population of 57,000 people, that one could well fly, at least in the short term.
Really, all he accomplishes with respect to the other World “leaders” (the ones who live in the Reality-based sphere) is signal how truly clueless & out-of-touch he is. Russia has lost a million men & Ukraine only 700K!!? Get real. (He’s spoon-fed CIA propaganda and has not a single aide who can tell him the truth?) Spain is in BRICS!! Putin is “losing very badly”!? Immigrants in Ohio are kidnapping & eating cats? WTF? Perhaps his brain has started to decline on a level with Biden– “Sad!!”
At this time, Grand Master Karl Rove’s solipsistic “We’re an Empire now, & we create our own Reality” has truly metastasized into a full-blown Cancer among the Elites. Apart from enslaved and rapidly declining Europe, especially the “Baltic Chihuahuas” (hat tip to Ray McGovern & Larry Johnson, ex-CIA), the rest of the world clearly sees the US is over-extended and rapidly declining domestically.
The single Bear-Trap that Trump may not push the U$ blindly into, I think, is war with Iran on behalf of the Zio-Nazis. Surely there are many in the Pentagon who know what an epoch-level disaster this would be.
He has already flagrantly betrayed his MAGA base by being Sieg-Heil Elon’s subordinate Co-President and UPPING Immigration of Indentured Servitude B-1 Visa holders from India and elsewhere while spewing his usual anti-immigrant garbage, hypocrisy that is as clear as his orange tint. (In one of the recent Boeing near-disaster groundings, it was revealed that the 3 Engineers responsible for systems on that plane were $9 per hour Indians.)
He had only 3 solid achievements in his first term: 1. Aborting Obama’s monstrous TPP Treaty; 2. Overturning Roe v. Wade (pretty Pyrrhic victory for down-ballot R’s, until Biden gave the party more juice), 3. The giant tax-cuts for the richest (which Joe of course continued.)
This administration will be a giant dumpster fire. I have heard that Rick Grenell is the single sane, competent person he wants to appoint (just like in the thousands of fuck-ups Biden had a single Lina Khan). One competent sailor can’t save a sinking ship.
Do ANY of the purported targets of Trump’s 2nd McKinley Imperial Admin have the minimal “Survival of the fittest” instincts to team up and oppose the steroid-level boasts that Drumf et al are promising? I wouldn’t bet on it. On the other hand, I wouldn’t bet on lasting success for an Octopus that puts its tentacles into an infinitude of targets.
It was “Toria” Nuland that pushed the Bush Jr./Obama/Biden Junta into stupidly putting NATO into a “land war in Asia” against von Clausewitz’s direct advice, & no Trump tantrums will now delay reaping that whirlwind. I could not verify the purported VonC quote that “Whomever tries to control everything ends up controlling nothing,” but as a student of Taoism I am certain this is so. The only good news, then, is that the end of the American Nightmare continues to accelerate.
The only substantial advantages he currently maintains are: (a) expelling the traitorous clowns like the 51 CIA/DHS/ etc. clowns who lied about the Hunter Biden laptop “is a fraud” and that ilk, & (b) they now know & accept that he is every bit the Swamp-Creature that they are, so he will not face another Russiagate hoax, nor will a 3rd assassination attempt likely get green-lighted. But he will do plenty of things to utterly discredit himself beyond the horrified snowflake Libs who’ve been wetting their pants about him for 9 years and counting.
The rest of the world will be greatly relieved. If I were betting I’d give the US pseudo-Hegemony of the world 2-3 years after the Ukraine proxy war collapses. So it could happen under Trump, or whatever monster they install next. As long as it’s during my lifetime, I will be a happy camper.
different clue
I had submitted a comment but it got ” database connection errored”. I know that fix-attempts are ongoing and thank you for that.
To synopsize briefestly, a new round of Trump sanctions on Russia will be a further demonstration of the value to a country of Protectionism. Even if the Protectionism is applied from outside, it is still Protectionism. I would expect the Russian economy to reach new heights of wealth and power behind Trump’s big beautiful wall of Trumpamerican sanctions.
In a cage match between Teflon John the Creampuff Don and Putin the KGB veteran, who would win?
different clue
@Mark Level,
I don’t know if you have ever heard of a blogger named Ran Prieur, but I find his blog to be real interesting, wide ranging, with his own personal thoughts and observations on things and stuff. And worthwhile links to worthwhile things. He is a leaner tougher meaner hippie for today’s leaner tougher meaner times of today.
I bring him just now because he makes a prediction similar to yours for Trump and perhaps the US, but for different reasons, partly informed by fantasy-game-playing side of his activities and personality.
His latest writing on Trump and the near term future seems so worthwhile to me that I will offer a link to his blog. I will also offer a few quotes from it as a teaser for people to read to see whether they want to click the link or not in order to read the rest of it or not.
. . . ” January 20. The most important thing to remember about Donald Trump is that he’s chaotic neutral. He plays the role of a lawful evil politician, and will do some lawful evil things, but his real mission in this world is to destroy institutions and inspire individuals to say fuck it.
I think he’s actually going to tell the military to invade Greenland. One of two things will happen. They’ll refuse, thus driving a wedge between the military and the presidency. Or they’ll do it, driving a wedge into NATO. That’s what Trump is, a driver of wedges, an arch-divider, an agent of the ongoing atomization of humanity. That’s not necessarily bad. There’s a general feeling that a lot of things need to be broken down right now.” . . . Here is the link to Ran Prieur. http://www.ranprieur.com/
Here is the ” some men just want to watch the world burn” scene from a Batman movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIYkhb2NjfE
I think that Trump is the closest thing we have to The Joker in American political society today.
I also ” think” that Trump may be a SubGenius without realizing it. He sometimes seems close to being a real-life reincarnation of J. R. ‘Bob’ Dobbs come back among us to disarray the world.
Face of Trump: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66612345?0=utm_source=ground.news&1=utm_medium=referral
Face of J. R. ‘Bob’ Dobbs: https://civitai.com/images/892621