If you want to call it negotiating. Iran refuses to even talk, unless America removes sanctions first. Putin will talk, but he clearly doesn’t intend to end the Ukraine war except on his terms, and certainly won’t agree to a ceasefire without massive concessions. China isn’t panicking over tariffs, but simply counter-tariffing. Europe’s getting uppity. Even midgets like Canada are standing up for themselves. Oh, and Ukraine still hasn’t signed that mineral “deal.”
Trump has said that if Iran doesn’t give up their nuclear program “there will be bombing like they’ve never seen.” He’s threatening Russia with secondary sanctions on oil, and he’s talking about tariffing everyone.
Apparently America doesn’t want any allies, or friends, and soon it won’t have any. This is batshit crazy, loop-de-loop nuts. The way to do this sort of thing is to single out one or two targets at most, and make everyone else think they’re safe, then move on. Trump’s acting like it’s 1991 or 1950, with the US at the top of the world, not like America’s in serious decline.
Oh it may seem like a response to America’s decline, an attempt to reshore industry, withdraw from Imperial over-reach and so on. Superficially it looks like that, but he’s just picking too many fights all once, his tariff threats are incoherent and unplanned, he’s defunding research and forcing brilliant scientists and engineers and scholars out of the US, has no industrial policy worth speaking of and is destroying America’s governing capacity with capricious cuts to the federal bureaucracy.
More to the point, he’s giving everyone else reason to route around America like it’s damage: to stop using the US dollar, to move to using local currencies for trade and to stop buying American goods and services, and yes, to stop selling to the US. The smart move, and it’s going to happen if he keeps this up, will be stop enforcing US intellectual property, end the DMCA clones and the prohibition on breaking digital locks, and to stop paying American internet giants their usurious fees.
The US isn’t agreement capable: you can’t trust them to keep their deals. This was true before Trump, but he’s super-charged them. Iran is right to say “well, we’ll talk after you keep the last deal we signed with you” and everyone else is coming to the same conclusion. If he won’t keep America’s deals, or even his own (the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada is his) what’s the point of even talking? Just stop doing business with the US, period.
Smart policy isn’t to do this in one huge crash, because the US is very reliant on goods, resources and money from everyone else. You boil the frog, make things predictable and ease out of the problem. This isn’t Russia, which had China and India to backstop it when sanctions hit and which wasn’t massively in real trade deficit, making it up with non trade fees from its vassals and from countries which wanted to sell to it.
If you can’t sell to the US, why do business with it? What does it have that you can’t get from someone else? The obvious answer is food, oddly, but if even China is willing to put tariffs on both US and Canadian food, that dog won’t hunt.
It’s not that the US can’t do autarchy. It’s still a continental power, it’s still high tech, it still has plenty of scientists and engineers. But all that was true of Russia after the USSR collapsed, and the first decade and a half were ugly, and only got better because of Putin and the secret police taking charge—and they were able to do so thru a huge economic campaign to sell resources to the rest of the world.
And that’s where the US looks likely to wind up, after a period of chaos and deprivation: its’ behind in 80% of tech, it’s cost structure is too high, so it’ll have to sell food and natural gas: if anyone else is willing to buy. (The Euros may have no choice, everyone else does, because they aren’t blinded by insane fear and hatred of Russia.)
This sure is speed-running imperial decline. An accelerationist’s dream.
And if there’s a real war, what happens if Iran is able to sink an aircraft carrier? What happens when the US campaign against Yemen fails, as it will? What’s left of America if people aren’t scared of it? Nukes and complete pariah status and a massive nuclear proliferation scramble?
Likewise the whole sanctions regime bullshit is possible because almost everyone trades with the US and goes thru American and European banks. If they stop trading, they don’t need the banks and if European banks opt out, well, shit. So the fear of sanctions and the fear of military force goes way down.
Nothing to sell, no fear, and no one wanting to do business with the US, including buying its weapons.
This appears to be Trump’s endgame.
Revelo
Matt Stoller had a particularly good substack recently where he summarized USA problem: USA has been taken over by rentiers empowered by ability of USA to make infinite promises that will be accepted at face value by ROW (rest of world) in exchange for valuable goods and commodities. This path will eventually lead to crisis when entire ROW simultaneously doubts that USA will be good for its promises, and there ensues a rush for the exit from USA promises.
Note that only some promises are USA dollars or USA government debt. Other promises are ownership of USA stocks, USA real estate, USA FDI, etc. Because USA is powerful militarily, it can confiscate all such foreign ownership any time it wants. That is, gunboat diplomacy cannot be used to force USA to fulfill its promises like USA uses gunboat diplomacy to force South Americans and Africans to fulfill their promises.
To fix the USA requires: destroying the bloated financial sector, crushing stock and housing asset bubbles, drastically reducing bloated standard of living of upper middle class pensioners, replacing all PMC hacks with engineers and scientists who work in the real economy, crushing bloated military and medical complexes, etc, etc. That’s a LOT of sacred cows. Which means that a wrecking ball president is possibly (I repeat, possibly) the harsh remedy USA desperately needs.
My guess is that Trump is not going to be destructive enough to kill enough of the sacred cows listed above, and so instead of burning all the corruption away and opening the path to rejuvenation, Trump will simply cause a mess and then the rentier oligarchs will regain control of the shrunken remains after the destruction stops. USA hegemony will be over, USA standards of living will decline significantly, Greenland will be totally and Canada partially absorbed into USA (Trump will want at least one successful war after repeated defeat in confrontations with Russia, Iran and China).
There are smart people in CIA who can probably arrange, while Trump is not looking, to ensure that Europe is kept divided and weak rather than united and strong. So final result is that China becomes center of world economy, Russia is another pole (assisted by both Koreas, Japan, Iran, India, SE Asia and everyone else threatened by Chinese competition), USA is left alone to rampage in North America plus parts of South America, Europe is weak and of limited importance, Mideast and Africa continue to be zones of constant conflict.
edwin
Looks like Europe is making a play for some of Canada’s oil. I wonder if we will end up as part of the EU. I wonder if the US would prevent that from happening.
A long time ago I was sure the US would eventually invade and annex Canada. In the last 10 years I changed my mind. There was no point for an invasion. Effectively Canada had become so subservient with such weak leadership all our resources were effectively theirs anyway. Canada as an “independent” country could have numerous advantages, such as refuge for the elite, or bypassing disliked special interest groups when doling out resources in return for political favours. As well you avoid the very vague left-wing very pro universal medical care sentiment of the population. (think CBC’s contest for the most influential Canadian a few years back where Tommy Douglas was selected. https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/tommy-douglas-crowned-greatest-canadian-1.510403)
This isn’t the first time with self defeating policies. The war of 1812 against Britain was another such time. Pierre Burton was of the opinion that this war was the basis of a Canadian identity. Before that we were split on either British or American, and American was much stronger and going to be the winner. In order for the US to have won the war of 1812 all they needed to do was nothing.
I wonder if Trump’s policies will eventually kick the US out of the Great Power club.
The US has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Trump is following in well worn footsteps.
Ian Welsh
Edwin,
that is, indeed, the amazing thing. If he’d done nothing, we’d have continued to be completely subservient and given the US everything it wants. Carney is talking about using Canadian resources to rebuild industry, government building housing itself, etc…
Unthinkable 4 months ago.
I truly do believe, so long as we avoid an invasion, that this is the best thing to happen to Canada since the disaster of the FTA.
Joan
I am young enough that I am attempting permanent emigration. Third time’s the charm; this has been my dream since I was a teenager.
Oakchair
What does it (America) have that you can’t get from someone else? The obvious answer is food,
———-
This was true fairly recently, but now America is a net food importer. In the last 6 years America was a net food importer for 4 of them. 2023 had the largest recorded net food imports in American history which was surpassed by 2024. Estimates are that in 2025 America will import on net 50 billion dollars in food surpassed the record numbers in 2024.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/mass-terminations-have-cut-usda-off-at-the-knees-ex-employees-say.html
Feral Finster
True as far as it goes, but the US has no intention of negotiating with Iran, since Israel objects to the fact that Iran exists and there is no agreement that Iran can sign that will address this.
This feeds into Trump’s other problems. Trump cares only about Ukraine only to the extent that it distracts American attention and resources from the War On Iran. However, even if Russia were to agree to become a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Coca-Cola Company today, Trump’s enemies in the US and europe would be howling “Putin puppet!”
Hell, Trump could push The Button and Team D would insist that he did so only at Putin’s behest, and besides, HRC/Biden/Harris would have started WWIII sooner and better.
Of course, the Trump Cult would insist that this was all part of some master plan, even as we all went up in a mushroom cloud.
So it’s not as if Trump pays any sort of price with his base for not getting any deal done. They’ll recite talking points about Trump not having started any wars, until the War On Iran kicks off in earnest, then they’ll switch to flag-waving chants of U-S-A, like water off a duck’s back.
Feral Finster
edwin “Looks like Europe is making a play for some of Canada’s oil.”
How you going to refine it and get it there?
From my PoV, the idea of annexing Canada is stupid. Citizens have more rights. Vassals, not so much.
Danfmto
Feral: Puerto Ricans are US citizens but it doesn’t do them much good. We wouldn’t get statehood, so we’d only have voting rights if we move south. But moving to Florida or Georgia or whathaveyou would just absorb us into the politics of those states. Not like we’d take over the state and make it do single payer.
someofparts
According to Breaking Point this morning, Trump says he will have a third term. When asked how, he just says ‘there are ways’ and then says nothing else.
As a hypothetical to how loyal his base will be, I have a close relative who is one of those people. She doesn’t believe he will cut Soc Security. If he does that and I disappear, that might put a dent in her convictions. Also, she is in Florida were hurricanes are getting worse and homeowner’s insurance will probably become impossible to procure. Maybe some of the things happening will shake that confidence or maybe not.
Meanwhile, however, my relations who are solid Democrats are having a baby boom, as are my neighbors in the well-off solidly blue neighborhood I’m in. I guess people will always have babies no matter what, but this sure feels like a weird time to be doing it.
Somebody said that by the time you are 50, you have the face you deserve. Is it just me, or is Trump hideous? Strange to me that someone can look that awful and still be willing to be seen in public.
Ian, when your US readers wind up in internment camps, I hope the members of your audience who are safely out of the country will step up and keep supporting the site.
different clue
Here is a speech by PM Carney, about how the immediately-post-WWII government of Canada built, as a government, affordable housing for returning Canadian soldiers. It almost sounds like a Canada-specific act of new-dealism. I imagine the rest of the speech will be outlining how Canada can do the same thing now today. But I have to get to work so I can’t listen to it. But anyway, here is the link.
https://www.reddit.com/r/onguardforthee/comments/1jo3g76/mark_carney_announces_the_government_will_get/
To the foreign observer, it looks like the Trumpy goals and negotiations are what “America” wants. To me, it looks like what the Triple Nazi Revolution wants for Magamerica.
For people inside America’s borders, the question is whether this country is to be one big United Shithole States of MAGAmerica, or whether parts and pieces can stealth-velvet-seccede under other concepts? Can there be a few non-magataminated states which could stick together and form a functional United Bluestates of Freedomerica for example?
Could new parties arise within particular states to try and lead-organize such an effort?
BCNurse Prof
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2025/02/13/Do-Not-Test-Us-Trump/
Don’t Test Us, Trump, It Won’t End Well For You
“If Trump ever decides to use military force to annex Canada, the result would not be determined by a conventional military confrontation between the Canadian and American armies. Rather, a military invasion of Canada would trigger a decades-long violent resistance, which would ultimately destroy the United States.
But in this nightmare scenario, could Canadians successfully resist an American invasion? Absolutely. I know this because I have studied insurgencies around the world for more than two decades, and I have spent time with ordinary people who have fought against powerful invading armies. “
different clue
Many years ago I read a very nasty book by a very nasty man named Robert Ringer. It was called Winning Through Intimidation. He studied and maybe interviewed quite a few mogul-types and I think most of them were high-rolling real estate developer-builders. He didn’t name any of them but I suspect one of them was probably Trump. And the rest of them were probably smarter Trumps who did better in that Trumpiform industry.
Ringer has a website. I don’t have the time to read it or look at it. I suspect he deeply approves of Trump’s winning-through-intimidation performance so far. Here it is in case anyone cares to see if I predicted Ringer’s views on Trump correctly or incorrectly.
https://robertringer.com/books/winning-through-intimidation/
National Lampoon Magazine did a little satire of that book called . . . Get Out of My Way or I’ll Kill You. I tried finding a link to it but I couldn’t find any.
mago
The stupid is so thick you need waders.
The fog so thick you need a lighthouse.
Oh where oh where has my little dog gone, how have I been led so astray?
And if these words make no sense, then it’s intentional non sense.
Eric Anderson
Accelerationism is the feature, not a bug.
The dance to destroy any vestige of democracy and replace it with “whatever the techbros wanna do” is in full swing.
someofparts
Speaking of problematic negotiations, get a load of this –
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04/as-future-of-panama-canal-hangs-in-balance-mexico-quietly-inaugurates-its-interoceanic-rail-corridor.html
Purple Library Guy
The big markets for American (and Canadian) liquefied natural gas are Europe and China. Both are doing the energy transition at fairly high speed. In Europe, natural gas is going down in the mix of “what generates electricity” by about 1% per year. Not 1% of the natural gas, 1% of the total energy mix, like this year natural gas is 23%, next year it’s 22%. It seems likely that that will accelerate, and that there will be a move towards heat pumps for heating. Europe won’t be buying LNG for all that long. Plus in a year or two the Ukraine war will be over, Europe will still be mad at the US, and Putin might be able to do some diplomacy and start selling them some of his cheaper stuff again.
In China, every year they break another record for solar installation. The growth is exponential. And they really don’t want to be dependent on American product. Plus they buy as much as they can from Russia ’cause Russia is their ally and it’s much cheaper and nobody can get in between and block the supply. I really don’t think they are going to be buying LNG for all that long either.
So if the US is planning to depend on natural gas exports for anything, they are going to have another think coming. (So is my province of British Columbia)
Failed Scholar
Even if all of Europe or China’s energy came from non-gas sources, the need for natural gas would still be there because it is a hugely important industrial input. Fertilizers (ammonia) for instance uses huge quantities of natural gas as part of the production process. This is one of the drivers currently of German deindustrialization as they are (were?) world leaders in industrial chemicals.
For the Yanks, the stats are a bit dated but: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/industry-in-depth.php “As a fuel, natural gas accounted for 41% of total manufacturing fuel use in 2018, and as a feedstock, for 16% of total manufacturing energy use as feedstocks. Nearly all (98%) of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) use by manufacturers is as feedstocks.”
GrimJim
Tomorrow is Trump’s “Liberation Day.”
This is going to be some sort of EO that is either:
A) Incredibly stupid and ineffectual, except to alienate more allies and raise costs to the US citizenry.
OR
B) Incredibly, utterly stupid that will destroy international trade between the US and all other countries.
Frankly it is 50/50 either way right now, depending on the level of thought he has put into it.
And here’s the thing — from what I have been able to dig up, he’s only been meeting with the utterly stupid MAGA core crowd on this — not Musk, not the Project 2025 people, just MAGAts.
So it is going to be VERY STUPID.
Worst case scenario…
Trump has been angered that tariffs do not work the way he thought they did. He thought that the exporting company/country paid the tariffs. He has been enraged that it does not actually work this way.
So, I think that he is going to MAKE it work that way.
I think that either this EO, or one down the road if not this one, will leverage his whole “External Revenue Service.”
He’s going to set it up so that the government of the exporting country has to pay the ERS the tariff, directly, government to government, and that for any import to be accepted, they must show that the exporting company’s government has pre-aid the tariff.
Thus, if a steel foundry in China is exporting $1,000,000 in steel to a US company, and the tariff on steel is 25%, the PRC will have to directly pay the ERS $250,000 before the steel will be accepted at a US port.
And so, the foreign governments will have to pay for the tariffs, just as Trump always said they would.
Now, of course, this instantly destroys international trade between the US and all other countries, because no country can afford to have its company’s products taxed like that. There is literally no way to recoup or ameliorate that expense.
So that ends international trade with the US, instantly.
Whatever his plan is, he’s not included any of the adults that he actually allowed in his regime into the discussions, it has just been him and the usual gang of idiots.
So, the “Liberation Day” EO could very well be something this drastic and utterly destructive.
Good luck!
GrimJim
I just realized that “The usual gang of idiots” was a term applied to the staff of Mad Magazine. I intended no insult.
The staff of Mad Magazine were utter GENIUSES.
These MAGAts are not worthy to polish their boots. I mean, yes, they have a lot of experience doing so with their tongues, but still… not worthy.
GrimJim
“Liberation Day” aka “Wet Firecracker Day.”
Stupid, useless, and mean to merely be mean.
Typical Trump.
All it will do is continue to rachet up the cycle of the Trump Trade War.
Eventually something will break. Not this time, though.
Just gives us more time to prepare.