The first is that frozen conflicts are poison. When Russia and Hezbollah and Iran and some Syrian units were winning, rather than make an agreement for a frozen conflict, they should have pushed on. Leaving enemies in the country and the oil fields in US/Kurdish hands was foolish and fatal. Letting enemies flee to Turkey then be sent back was fatal.
The second is that either Russia or Iran should have just stationed some significant ground forces there permanently (Hezbollah is not a full state and doesn’t have the capacity.) Yes, it would be a bleeding ulcer, but the attrition would not be enough to matter. The entire advance could have been stopped by one good, properly equipped Iranian or Russian brigade with air and drone support. The Jihadis didn’t win because they were great fighters, they won because the Syrian army wouldn’t fight.
This assumes that the strategic value of Syria was sufficient: that it was worth the cost.
If Syria’s worth having, then do what it takes. Fighting on and off for thirteen years to then have the regime fall in days is ridiculous.
This argument applies to America in Afghanistan. The difference is that while Russia and Iran have important strategic interests in Syria, or did, the US never had enough in Afghanistan to justify the costs.
Broadly speaking, don’t half-ass. Do it right or don’t do it.
This applies also to Turkey. They should probably cut the bullshit and just occupy the country. Their proxies can’t stand up to Israel and will even have difficulty against the Kurds.
Mark Level
Thank you, Ian. All clear & obvious.
I think the Russians, at the very least, have thoroughly digested this. Perhaps the abandonment of Syria (we don’t know all the facts this early, obviously, though MoA had a good thread today) was deliberate, knowing it was doomed anyway?
Iran seems to be the paralyzed, inactive party. So many years since the Iranian revolution, perhaps their leadership is calcified & clueless.
Rumors that Assad is dead. Not that he matters (any more than a proxy sock puppet like Zelensky). I guess the NatSec State’s heroes, the head-choppers, will have a field day killing Syrian Christians, Druze, Shia and other minorities. While the UK Guardian & US MSM call them “moderates” & “our friends.” Saw a good interview with Mohammed Mirandi made in the last 24 hours. He seemed calm & not too worried.
The MoA thread included a claimed Trump Tweet that stated the obvious, the “Rebels” are Terrorists. Could be true. But will he be able to stop support for them from the Blob? Methinks not. Perhaps US Presidents (since the time Kennedy got state-executed) are sock puppets like Zelensky after all?
The Empire will invade, murder & lie until it no longer can. I’m sure Tallifer & a few others can rejoice over the bloodshed, “our values” being spread the only way “we” know how.
This looks like a “victory” for the Empire of Murder & Lies.
Soredemos
Assad apparently in Moscow now. If true, looks like this was preplanned.
someofparts
Two tweets copied from MoA seem to clear up a couple of things.
asad abukhalil أسعد أبو خليل @asadabukhalil – 17:42 UTC · Dec 7, 2024
Ibrahim Amin of Al-Akhbar wrote a few days ago that Russia had warned Bashshar Al-Asad that the axis is collapsing and urged him to reconcile with Moscow-approved Syrian opposition. He refused. Erdogan tried to reconcile with him and he refused. Not sure what he was counting on.
Alon Mizrahi @alon_mizrahi – 5:06 UTC · Dec 8, 2024
Bear with me: if the West bet on Russia and Iran turning this into a wide and prolonged bloodfest in which they will be exhausted, softening Iran for a planned fatal blow, it makes a lot of sense for Putin to not swallow the bait, right? And make Syria the West’s headache, instead of his? Let the Americans navigate the labyrinth of interests and hostilities in Syria.
…
Much as I dislike seeing the Turks side with Israel and the US, it sounds like Assad’s intransigence was a central problem and at least Erdogan did make good faith efforts to talk with him directly before launching hostilities.
The insight into the motives of Russia and Iran strikes me as encouraging as well. Awful as the consequences of these developments will be for Palestine and Hezbollah, Russia and Iran will protect themselves and continue gaining strength the better to win the long war. It was also gratifying to learn that Russia knew what was coming and even warned Assad. The fact that Russian intel is this solid is good news.
So I guess we get to watch Syria become like Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan, a dysfunctional mess where the US and Israel can muck around and find more desperate extremists to arm and deploy, but hopefully not for much longer.
Daniel Lynch
Russia never had a mandate from the Russian people to put ground forces in Syria. That was not going to happen, period. Nor does Russia have any great interest in Syria. So what if Russia loses the Syrian bases? Russia’s missiles can still cover the entire globe.
I do think Iran miscalculated. But Iran is politically divided, and President Pezeshkian hopes to reset relations with the West. In my opinion, Pezeshkian and his ilk are naive fools, but it is what it is.
Syria was a liability to its allies, always in trouble, always needing help, yet never once directly participating in the resistance against Israel. Syria was like your ne’er do well in-law.
The future is bleak for the Palestinians, and for Lebanon, and maybe for Iraq. Israel seems to have won, but it has lost credibility, and is still surrounded by hostiles. Turkey seems to be a winner at the moment, but it has cast its lot with NATO, which is in decline, while losing credibility with Russia and BRICS.
The real winners are those who take care of their own country instead of squandering resources on foreign wars. Like China.
Feral Finster
Ignore Erdogan’s touching rhetoric.
Israel and Turkey are in cahoots, brokered by the US, unless you think that the timing of the ceasefire and the HTS attack were totally coincidental.
Wadangala Kaladoota
Amazing how much nobody ever seems to listen to you
Ian Welsh
I don’t expect anyone to listen to me. At one point I was, without question, read in the White House (early Obama). I can’t think of anything I suggested which they did. They did to the exact opposite of many things I suggested.
At some point a different group may be in power. They may be people who have read me (unlikely) or they may have read people influenced by me (still unlikely but slightly less so.) In the meantime it amuses me to lay down markers for what the right thing to do is.
#shrug
elkern
Bonus lesson: if you want your son to take over the family business, and the business is Dictatoring, don’t send him to Med School.
My point is really that Assad Jr. was obviously not cut out for the Strong Man Ruler thing. A “job” like that requires a particular set of character traits, talents, and skills: ruthlessness, egotism (tempered by insecurity/paranoia), high tolerance (or preference) for stress and risk, strong intellect focused narrowly on practical matters, and social/communication skills focused on manipulation. Pere (Hafez) Assad had “it”; Fils (Bashar) just didn’t.
And that’s always a (the?) problem with hereditary power transfers. It rarely works for more than a few generations in a row.
different clue
@elkern,
Bashar al Assad was never meant to take over the family business. His brother ( who I believe I remember was named Basil) was being groomed to take over the family business. But his brother died in a car accident. So Bashar was called back to Syria and thrown into the breach.
Forecasting Intelligence
Hi Ian,
I think you are being a bit harsh on Iran and Russia here.
Assad was a total tool, lacked any political skills to manage his own country and key relationships with tribal leaders, minority groups and so on.
He couldn’t even fund his own army properly. That’s a schoolboy error when you depend upon the army for your survival.
Probably the Iranians and Russians should have forced Assad retirement and replaced him with a competent leader connected to the Assad family who would better run the country after the civil war.
But, easier said then done.