So, Trump has threatened, most of the world, including most Germany and much of Europe, with 25% tariff rates. Under Biden, with the destruction of three of the four underseas pipelines from Russia to Europe, along with sanctions, Germany in particular and Europe in general have been losing energy-price sensitive industry to America. They close down in Europe, they open up in the US. Natural gas from America is much more expensive than Russian gas.
Meanwhile, the Chinese are coming on strong in automobiles and other consumer goods. Right now it’s mostly hitting European exports, so much so that BMW is planning on shutting down plants. The Euros have sold a lot of cars to China, but domestic producers are now cheaper and in many cases better, especially EVs.
Down in Africa, practically every country that France had troops in has or is planning to kick them out. The French bought a lot of resources from their ex-colonies at cheaper than market prices and screwed their ex-imperial possessions on loans and even charged some for “infrastructure built during colonization.” Now that those nations can get security from Russia and goods from China, they’re kicking the French out en-masse.
No love lost. Can’t imagine why people would be upset by being conquered, then charged for it. Ungrateful bastards.
Anyway, all of this has put Europe in a pickle. They’re behind China, the US, Japan and South Korea technologically. Their goods can’t compete with Chinese goods, and they’re losing their access to cheap resources from Africa, and have cut themselves off (with an explosive assist, almost certainly from the US) from cheap Russian resources. Meanwhile Trump is threatening Greenland, and saying the Euros need to spend more money on NATO.
Fun times in the garden. Nothing the Euros don’t deserve for refusing to end their vassalization back in the 2000s when they were up and the US was other occupied, but water under the bridge and all that.
So what should the Euros do? (Not what will they do. They love being American vassals and may well hug trumps leg as he kicks them until they cough blood.)
Well, for one, end the anti-Russia BS. If the Eastern Euros don’t like it, the Westerns should just kick them out of the EU or end the EU and start something else. Poles talk big, but they suck at the Euro teat. The Americans aren’t going to send them as much money as the EU does. If they want to be anti-Russia while Germany loses all its industry, get rid of them.
Russia has constantly stated its happiness to start selling to Europe again. Sure, China and India will buy their resources, but without Europe they lose a lot of bargaining power. Plus they built all the infrastructure and it can be fixed.
Second, reasonable trade deals with everyone else the US under Trump is fucking with tariffs. Canada and Australia are a good start. Japan seems to be avoiding the tariffs, but is worried and still pretty anti-China. Cut a deal with them as well.
The issue is that Europe has a high cost structure. Prices for their goods can’t compete with China. They need resources. Canada and Australia and Japan are high cost producers.
Form a trade bloc. Put up their own tariffs so that their domestic industry can compete. Insist that the Chinese build factories in country to avoid the tariffs. Europe’s still high income. Foster tech transfer from China. Massively invest in tech and science. Shut up about Chinese human rights, it’s none of their business and after Gaza it’s laughably hypocritical. China isn’t genociding the Uighurs, even if they don’t treat them great. So zip it.
Make your own trade area, consisting of high income, high cost structure nations with whom you can compete. Tell the US to fuck itself (politely but firmly) and rebuild the European military, not as part of NATO but independent.
France has nukes, expand that program and get them on modern missiles. Put allies under the European nuclear shield.
Form, in other words, a third pole.
Oh, there’s more that needs to be done. Neoliberal austerity needs to end, rents and housing and stock bubbles need to be slammed into the ground, and it needs to be policy that if you want to get rich you have to actually make stuff. No more finance bullshit, or landlordism.
But start by ending Europe’s vassalization and forming their own bloc.
Europe needs to grow up. The era of being America’s ally, and having a good standard of living without really having to work for it is over. America’s declining and they want to cannibalize their vassals to slow or (they hope, but hah) reverse the decline.
Don’t let them.
Joan
This sounds like a great plan and here’s to hoping individual EU nations will figure things out at some point, even if it’s messy, and better late than never.
Feral Finster
Europeans like being slaves. Like dogs, they cannot imagine life without Master and the prospect terrifies them.
As long as the european political class continue to enjoy their perks, nothing will change.
Oakchair
First America came for Latin America,
I did nothing for I wasn’t Latin.
Then America came for the Middle east,
I helped for I was America’s ally.
Then America came for Europe,
I did nothing for I was an American.
Then America came for me,
and there was no one left to stop them.
Nathan Wilcox
the kompromat on EU elected officials is likely to be very deep and quite nasty. That will have to be overcome
StewartM
Much of the above is good advice for America, too. Which of course, means it won’t happen. Because our elites, like Europe’s find the current situation too comfortable and easy, even though the mass of their population does not. What, crush rents when we can mandate a 12-hour workday instead? You can save a lot of money by being at work all the time, dontyaknow.
Forecasting Intelligence
Not going to happen.
Although ironically the Continental “far-right”, with their end the Russian sanctions, nationalistic and a Fortress Europe approach could get some of that going.
More likely Europe goes the way Greer expects, western Europe will become majority Muslim by the end of the century (demographics and external migrations/invasions) and eastern Europe carved up between the Turks, Russians and who knows, maybe the Poles?
KT Chong
The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves just went to China to beg for handouts to rescue the sinking UK economy, and she could not refrain from criticizing China on human rights even though she was there to beg for money, as if the UK has not been directly complicit in the Gaza Genocide. I do not understand why China would put up with that degree of arrogance and hypocrisy.
Mary Bennet
What are the chances for a federal union of European countries? Could that happen. Such a country could defend its borders and control its own portion of the Arctic Ocean.
Revelo
>the kompromat on EU elected officials is likely to be very deep and quite nasty.
Long ago, I laughed at those QAnon theories of pedophile cannibal seances under the US Capitol with secret tunnel exit to the back of some cheap pizza restaurant, but lately I wonder if there might be a grain of truth in those theories…
Why was Kamala Harris candidate for USA President? Because she ticked a few electability boxes and was easy to control. But if electability and controlability are the important criteria, wouldn’t pedophile cannibals be ideal candidates for public office? No better kompromat than that.
Daniil Adamov
I have no idea if Europeans love being American vassals or don’t. I think some intellectuals surely do, and maybe some politicians too; I think a larger share of European elites loves the benefits they get from being America’s chosen partners, fate of the continent be damned; the rest is a haze. The real issue is that it would be extremely hard for “Europe”, in other words a conglomeration of dozens of democratic oligarchies, to change course. Any politicians or parties that want to change course will be putting themselves at a disadvantage compared to those who don’t, because it’s safer to stick to inertia, because there is safety in numbers even if you’re heading off a cliff, and because America and various pro-American interest groups, whatever their thinking, have many ways of putting the finger on the scales of any political disagreement.
Even dictatorships find a drastic change of course difficult, though being able to act decisively is rightly seen as their main selling point. For “Europe” to change course as you suggest, it would need… well, my imagination fails me. Some sort of well-organised continent-wide political movement that would apply consistent and strategic pressure to every part of the leadership, perhaps, or else the ghost of Napoleon should be summoned to take over, aided by the ghosts of all who ever died for him. I fear, however, that it is impossible as a deliberate and conscious choice. They may yet stumble into it gradually and under various external pressures. I hope they’ll be so lucky; while part of me says that it couldn’t happen to a nicer sub-continent, many innocent people would suffer avoidably otherwise.
mago
Where to begin with this unholy union? The European Union?
Just how compliant and complacent are the denizens of the diverse cultures that comprise the European countries?
Do they buy into the agendas and propaganda of their overlords?
One suspects so, though dissident views are stomped, smashed and squelched toot sweet, so one rarely hears the protesters’ voices.
Protest is futile anyway. Direct action as in guillotinas is needed, but not going to happen.
Not advocating violence, but force is needed to counter the so called elites. (What’s so Elite about them?)
The Euro dogs are downtrodden, weak and submissive, ready to rollover for a biscuit and a belly rub.
That’s my take.
I attempt to squelch my inner cynic, but he just keeps bouncing back.
Oh Bethlehem where art thow?
The center doesn’t hold . . .
different clue
Here is an interesting story I first saw posted to reddit about how ” Russian state controlled media” were floating the possibility that Trump and Putin might want to divide Greenland in half between their two countries.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-state-tv-floats-splitting-154558327.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
My personal feeling is that if Putin is quietly supporting such a thing to be said in public on Russian TV, that his intentions would be satirical, sardonic and ironic. He is a chess player and KGB bureaucracy-survivor, not a trashy real-estate huckster/hustler. I would consider this a chess move in the form of a baited hook dropped in the water to see if Trump is dumm stoopid ignerant enough to bite down on it in public.
If he is, that would drive a wedge of sorts between Europe and America. It might speed up the self-emancipation of Europe, especially the non-elite peoples of Europe.
Maybe.
j
I’d be interested to hear your take on what should Eastern Europe do. Stuck between Western Europe, who sees them as colonies, Russia, who sees them as a sphere of influence, and US, who sees them as pawns in the Great Game… Will there ever be hope for dignity and agency?