The horizon is not so far as we can see, but as far as we can imagine

Why The Left Taking Over The Republican Party Is Even Harder Than Taking Over The Democratic Party

By Swamp Yankee

(Ian–this is another elevated comment. I thought (and think) it’s an excellent one, informed by life experience. In general the quality of comments lately has impressed me.)

For those advising an attempt to take over the Republican Party. I think candidly that that is even less likely than taking over the Democratic Party.

I live in, and am involved in local politics and environmental activism in, a region that, despite being in a very Blue State, is quite conservative, with some of the towns around here reliably voting for GOP candidates — in Massachusetts — at rates above 60 and 70% (other towns are more reliably Democratic, these differences are fascinating at a sociological level, and quite complicated).

I am in coalition with these conservatives on a critical important local issue where 90 percent of the populace agrees that a corporation is lawless and must be stopped. I grew up with some of them, and know them well, we are of the same small communities (this is also true of the liberals, the left, the non-engaged, the right-wing and left-wing online street fighters, many more — these are smaller towns for Massachusetts, with one exception).

Despite this coalition, or rather because of it, and dealing with them, I think it’s unlikely they are going to be a good candidate for entryism. For one thing, they are viscerally and often just off the wall in their hardcore anti-Communism and 1950s-era redbaiting.

The other thing is that they have as kind of their Ur-Principle the idea that Private Property Is Sacred (this is, as Ur-Principles so often are, is frequently and seemingly without dissonance contradicted by them in the actual practice of their lives). They do not distinguish between the person owning a small cottage and Elon Musk; for them, private property is private property.

A third factor is that fifty years of talk radio, cable news, and now Facebook and other social media have marinated them in a culture of querulous suspicion and anti-reason; they fall for just lunatic conspiracy stuff, and while some of them are just naturally intelligent enough that they fight through this and make real contributions to our local governments, it’s still their native idiom, if that makes sense (like, believing basically every election is stolen; despite the minimizing of certain interlocutors of Trump’s misdeeds, this is a real one, this baseless accusation of fraudulent or stolen elections — this is a corrosive rhetorical move, and one that makes the actual practical life of our bodies politic in the real world more difficult.
Nor is Russiagate apposite here; Russiagate was nonsense, but Hillary Clinton, of whom I am not a fan, did show up to Trump’s 2017 Inauguration; she did acknowledge the vote totals were correct, and that she legitimately lost in the electoral college; this is _categorically_ different than Trump’s conduct in 2020-21).

A fourth factor: they genuinely dislike Difference and a pluralistic and open society; many of them are openly bigoted towards LGBTQ people. We had a Klan presence here in southeastern Massachusetts into the 1950s, and that impulse didn’t just go away. Indeed, my own Town’s High School, from which I graduated 20+ years ago, had a significant problem with what can only be described as anti-Semitic and Nazi-sympathizing public behavior by the football team. We have the local evangelical holy rollers running for School Committee (in Plymouth, Mass.) talking about banning books, in just total disregard for the U.S. and Mass. Constitutions.

They are also obsessed with culture war nonsense. Just, like, obsessed.

The thing I should emphasize: the conservatives are often extremely intelligent, and will see any kind of entryist from a mile away. I should also note I actually quite like many of them at a personal level; I don’t think they are bad people (some are, but not most), just misguided and wrong on many issues (sometimes, they are right, and I take coalition with them where it presents itself; this is natural in the parliamentary environment of Town Meeting societies).

Finally, Republicans have their own Machine which is even worse than the Democratic Machine, which at least has to pretend to some notion of human well-being. The GOP Machine in my experience down here are connected to local business elites and are also canny, and just like, wildly amoral, and won’t give up the party without a fight.

So, taken together, and played out across the country, I think it will be extremely difficult to engage in any kind of Left entryist strategy in the Republican Party.

My own strategy is premised on local politics — I live in a directly democratic Town Meeting form of government, and if I want to write a statute for the Town, I can get myself and nine other inhabitants of the Town together and put it before the Annual Town Meeting. That’s a lot of power, so I exercise what power I am able to in order to advance the goals of the Commonwealth thought that guided the authors of the Massachusetts Constitution, and, at a larger level, the American Revolution.

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31 Comments

  1. Swamp Yankee

    I should amend my statement above to note that while results over 70% for Republicans do happen here, they are comparatively rare, and I can’t remember now which Town voted that way in which election, though I do have a memory of it.

    My research in recent years indicates that GOP candidates often win 60-something percent of the vote herein SE Mass. in the more conservative towns. Just a footnote to the above, I don’t want to give the impression that over 70% is typical.

  2. What is the functional difference between say a .001% chance and a .1% chance?

    The Trump Biden debate showed us why the DNC cancelled the Dem primary debates. They didn’t want to risk the voters electing a Dem candidate who didn’t fully support the ruling classes narratives.

    The only way for a candidate who completely opposed any part of the ruling class to get on the debate stage in 2024 was to run in the Republican primary.

  3. Soredemos

    Sorry, but the actions of the Dems after losing Iin 2016 leads directly to Republican claims about invalid elections. Clinton may have shown up to the inauguration, but behind the scenes she was spearheading a conspiracy to render the result invalid (if I recall correctly, the very specific explanation was that staffers circled around to Russia as the culprit in abhotel room surrounded by Shake Shack containers). This set the precedent for being to throw a sissy fit when you lose and just claim it was a fake result. This is now the new political borm; it’ll likely happen with every election.

    I can’t even in all honesty say that the Democrats walked but the Republicans ran with the idea, because the GOP largely confines itself to just grumbling ‘fake election; not my President’ (gee, sounds familiar), while trying to prove it through slow court cases. Meanwhile the Dems attempted a grand media and spy coup (I’m not anyone other than Lambert Strether at NC ever explored the implications of if they had been successful and effectively turned the ‘intelligence community’ into an entity with veto power over civil elections. Literally an element of fascism at that point).

    (And no, January 6 was not a couple attempt. It was a riot of idiots who were surprised when they even got into the building, which we know from the full video evidence they were allowed to do at at least one entrance, and then milled around for a few hours in confusion). At absolute most within that mob were a few people with firmer and more nefarious plans to kidnap senators, but that does not remotely a coup make)

  4. Feral Finster

    Trump was able to hijack the 2016 Team R nomination, while Sanders failed to do so with respect to Team D.
    In part, this was because Team R failed to unite behind a single non-Trump candidate. But also, Team R could not rely on the MSM to carry its water and broadcast its narrative.
    “What about Fox News?” you ask.
    Fox News is an outlier, and its viewpoints are not treated as normative outside of its viewer base (unlike, say, CNN), because it does not disseminate the hegemonic class viewpoint.
    Which leads to my next point – Team D is political manifestation of the PMC class consciousness. The hegemonic class is always more resistant to change or making alliances, because it does not have to do so.

  5. different clue

    One wonders if ” real Democrats” or “New Deal Reactionaries” or however they like to think of themselves, could conquer and occupy and convert particular state or sub-state regional or local DemParty structures. They would have to keep themselves known only to eachother until they had completed their conquest of the targeted DemParty fort or base or foxhole or position they have targeted for conquest and conversion. Once they had secured their conquest, they could openly reveal themselves as a self-named and self-aware group or tendency and invite like-minded others to join them and consolidate their conquest.

    If this could be done at the level of one entire state, then the conquerors of that state’s DemParty could rename it the Real Democrat Party or the Real (Your State Here) Democrat Party. If it could legislate and force ” New Deal Reactionary” or other desired legislation/rules/etc. into being and enforcement in that particular state, perhaps other bunchloads of similar people could achieve similar DemParty conquests in other states.

    Enough such state takeovers and they could call themselves the Union of Real State Democrat Parties or some such thing.

    They would need from the very start a powerful and effective intelligence/counter-intelligence bureau or division to spot and eject or “exterminate” every single Democrat or Clintonite or Obamacrat or Clintobamacrat or ClintoBidenite or whatever from infiltrating and destroying their new party efforts from within. It would only take one single malignant metastatic clintonoma cell or one infectious Yersiniobama pestis political bacterium to destroy any such new party. So such a new party effort would need to be vigilant and dispassionate about spotting and “exterminating” every single such Clintamination effort.

    And still have enough energy left over to pursue the original goal-oriented purpose which would lead such people to make a “new party” or “DemParty conquest effort” to begin with.

    (Hopefully such people would not devote all their leisure time to such an effort anyway. Hopefully their primary time investment would be towards building survivalism, and elective politics only after that.)

  6. Eric Anderson

    100% agreed.
    I live in a red state. My legal partner is a MAGA. One of the kindest, sanest, men I’ve ever met.

    Until you begin talking politics. And all i can do is feel sorry for him he’s so unhinged. Fox, NewsMax, etc. are on steady drip into his brain. And then there is this general adherence to the idea that people with educations are soft and pragmatically stupid. That’s another deeply engrained Ur-principle ubiquitous among the red staters.

    He often forgets when talking politics with me he’s sitting across from an example that totally defies the ur-principle. That being a former wildland fire fighting, Alaska crab fishing, college athlete who would beat his ass if it came down to it.

  7. Willy

    As stated, hardcore anti-communism, private property, facebook, prejudice… every factor mentioned in the post against the left being able to influence Republicans, is then supercharged by tribalism.

    IMHO, breaking through that tribalism is the biggest bugger. It might be possible to do one-on-one. You might even part as friendly disagreers surprised by how many common concerns you both share. But once they’re back amongst their own then all bets are off. They’ll revert right back to groupthink, awaiting the next big stupid idea.

    Maybe it’s only the few of us who aren’t traumatized by being shunned by our tribe. We can’t all be self-reliant, personally-responsible, free-thinking, hard-working, American-family-values misanthropes like me. Fortunately, it’s only a minority of the general population who’re doomed to be zombie robots, at that level.

    I think there might be another factor at play here, that a lot of Dems really are loons. Instead of targeting mindlessly destructive corporate and plutocratic concentrations of power, it seems they’ll do everything but, including making sure to get suckered into every single low-priority culture war they can. They gotta pick their battles.

    Soredemos is right. Since cult conservatives are unethical morons prone to mob thinking, do not give them any ideas! Shhh!! And don’t think that calling their ridiculous riots “coups” will shame them into… shame. We must know that shamelessness is their superpower.

    When it comes to powerful and effective intelligence/counter-intelligence bureaus or divisions to spot and eject or “exterminate” every single Democrat or Clintonite or Obamacrat or Clintobamacrat or ClintoBidenite or whatever from infiltrating and destroying New Deal Reactionary party efforts from within, one must always consider the money. We’re all being conditioned that the money is the only thing that matters. Not even status matters, if you’ve got the money. Think of Biden being too senile, but the obviously senile Trump not being senile because he’s got money. New cars, Disneyland, magic drugs… are far more important than doing the right thing for God and country these days. We must consider the money.

  8. Mark Level

    I agree with the thesis here, & it seems totally obvious to me. “Oil & water do not mix.” By nature, pretty much anyone who starts out embracing the “conservative” position, not wanting the world to change for the better, has their head up their ass & is basically the Living Dead. “I wanna live like my ma & pa did, the good old days were better, we were conquering the whole world, the queers & the darkies knew their place,” etc.

    Thus the lure of MAGA, Trump had a lot of failures (Trump steaks, Trump Water, the “Taj Mahal” casino) but politically he is astute & makes sense to about 40% of the blinkered, fear- & hate-filled population of failed graspers (okay, not all, a lot of Koch style “successes” & Nepo-babies) who have made up the (R) party at least since the days of Taft. And in the case of the latter, he serves their interests at least as well as the mainline Establishment, War-pushing R’s.

    But let’s not forget he came out of the Dem party, & he and his $$$ were very welcome there for decades. Now let’s look at the Dimmies: most of us know the axiom, R. officials fear their base (& cater strongly to it), D. electeds hate their base, & love to spit in its face & tell them why the “representatives”, not the stupid voters, know & decide better.

    Weiss & Dobular of Due Dissidence covered a recent suggestion by former “Liberal” Clinton flunky for the economy, Robert Reich. Back in 2022 he obviously knew that demented dotard Joe couldn’t go another term, & he had a modest proposal (a serious one, no sarc), the Dems should nominate Lynn Cheney for President!! Here’s a link– https://robertreich.substack.com/p/liz-cheney-for-president

    I won’t submit “my beautiful mind” (to quote Babs Bush on why there was no need to pay attention to the Iraq dead being shipped home) to listening to the entire thing, as it’s easy enough to imagine the “logic” underlying this proposal, 2 years out of the current election. 1. “She’s a woman,” she would fulfill the “historical precedent” of putting a woman mass-murderer in the White House that HRC failed as just too widely despised a person. 2. She will grab Republican votes from the Usurper. 3. The Dem PMC are so reactionary (now love Bush 2 by like 70%), support our endless wars of aggression & sanctions against “terrorist” states like Cuba & Venezuela, Russia, support growing economic inequality & decaying infrastructure. (Joe never undid the Trump tax cuts as promised, he kept “the Abraham Accords” & “kids in cages” etc. etc.) They are beyond Republican light. And, best of all:

    4. The Dimmie voters are passive suckers who won’t just vote for, but will sincerely “love” whatever sellout, soulless ShitLib dogshit the party (s)elects for the top of the ticket. Back before NeoLiberalism’s Markets were fully accepted as having TINA, “No Alternative”, they nominated dull, weak, hollow candidates like Walter Mondale, Mikey (I can ride in a tank!) Dukakis, AlGore, “Let AlGore tell you how great AlGore will be for you!” He’ll be so good he’ll “reach out” to the Suburban righties by picking as his VP the noxious, reactionary, Zionist supremacist, anti-abortion, homophobic bully boy Joe Lieberman!! There’s a real salute to “liberal” values, eh folks? (He’ll repay Gore’s kindness, which many attribute to his losing, though the uncontested vote steal in Flori-duh was clearly more determinitive, by 8 years later appearing at the Republican Convention to shit all over any fake “liberal” values and praise endless war, tax cuts for the best off, keeping those women in line, etc.)

    It’s a Uniparty in which the Dimmies can no longer play the “Good Cop” or Nice Mom figure. The R’s are the abusive daddy, the D’s are the Mom who tells you Daddy has his “needs” & give him everything he demands. You can secretly feel bad about the cruel tyrant, but don’t stand up to him unless you want an extra hard beating (or rape.)

    When the D’s do challenge the R’s it’s only to be more violent & cruel. Note Kamala’s recent promise (in the midst of a nearly-year long genocide) that the US Military will be stronger & “more lethal” than anyone has ever seen in history under her iron fist. It’s no longer “scratch a liberal & you’ll get a fascist”, the velvet glove is off. (Oh it’s there for the LGBTQ+ community rhetorically; & for women’s “rights” to bodily autonomy, if you live in a Blue State. But that’s about it.)

    Republicans kill peace, prosperity, self-rule & “democracy”. Dimmies dig democracy’s decline in duplicity.

  9. bruce wilder

    I think anyone who has ever done any kind of union organizing or community organizing is familiar with the “one-on-one” problem, which is a compound of political ignorance/disinterest and the ways in which personality shapes attitudes. “Tribalism” aligns people’s political attitudes, almost like an electric current aligns the molecules of an iron bar and Red and Blue become opposing magnets, repelling each other.

    Political attitudes — as important as attitudes are to personality — are neither the beginning nor end of politics and political deliberation. Resonating with pre-existing attitudes — attitudes being predictably distributed across demographic groupings — may be a leverage point for propaganda and hardening or softening attitudes can be a goal of propaganda. Still, I think imagining that instilling “right-attitude” should be a primary political goal can start a dangerous game or an impossible game or just a (very doable) long game depending on which particular attitude we are talking about.

    After the Second World War, the “authoritarian personality” was medicalized for a time, as if the political problem posed by Germany came down to a curable social psychology of bad attitudes. I think it is still the case, contempt for the “deplorables” is used to justify extreme hostility to populist political campaigns on the basis that the “deplorables” have bad attitudes.

    The liberal-left has had so much success in the mass-cultural politics of deploring “bad attitudes” that reactionaries and conservatives find some of their most effective arguments in exaggerating or exacerbating that success by subtly pushing it to greater, more absurd extremes, hoping I suppose that some these culture wars end in a self-immolation of what passes for progressive politics. Biological men in women’s sports because of a linguistic confusion of gender with sex creates an issue where there shouldn’t be an issue, imho.

    And, then there is the popular tactic of projecting racism and sexism onto a dimly understood past. This is indulged in by political conservatives pushing predatory economic policy and hoping to de-legitimize progressive economic policy as well as the professional “woke” pushing a successor ideology of ineradicable “original sin”.

    I am not ready to sign up for a politics of “right-attitude”, on either side of the Red/Blue divide. I think I sometimes have some insight into how the dynamics work to ignite passions, but mostly I think the gambits I see out there tend to be dishonestly manipulative in their retconning and Manichean story-telling.

  10. GlassHammer

    “The other thing is that they have as kind of their Ur-Principle the idea that Private Property Is Sacred”

    ^There are other Ur-Principals sitting underneath the emphasis on Private Property that are even more deeply held. A few of them would be:

    1. Property is Sacred: Some actually do believe the property itself is sacred or at least sacred to the extent the generations that held it sacrificed to keep it.

    2. Property contains traditions & memories: The belief that things aren’t “just things”, they are physical traditions or memories to recall. Family heirlooms are a good representation of this.

    3. Property is linked to an honor culture: This is a bit tough to explain but being landless or without ownership of anything is considered to be living in a state of dishonor. Basically you are viewed as living a life that doesn’t demand those tough sacrifices required to keep and maintain the things under your care, sacrifices others around you must make if they do own things. Not having anything is also tied to not achieving anything which is also viewed as dishonorable.

    Keep in mind I am not advocating for those deeper Ur-Principals, just pointing out that I have frequently encountered them when speaking with Conservative people.

    The best insight I can give someone to Conservative Mindset is that its deeply tied to old honor culture traditions even though they themselves are unaware that it’s honor culture traditions.

  11. Swamp Yankee

    Thanks everyone for your comments. There’s a lot to consider above — much that I agree with, and some things that I do not. I would make just a few additional points:

    I would just note that I have not called it a “coup” — my own view is that it is some kind of cross between a political riot and an abortive putsch run by fools (not a coup, a putsch), that quite clearly had sympathizers inside the security services. I agree that that is a large and untold story (and not entirely surprising, given the far right proclivity of various “back the blue” types).

    So far as the argument above from Soredemos that “the actions of the Dems after losing in 2016 leads directly to Republican claims about invalid elections. Clinton may have shown up to the inauguration, but behind the scenes she was spearheading a conspiracy to render the result invalid (if I recall correctly, the very specific explanation was that staffers circled around to Russia as the culprit in abhotel room surrounded by Shake Shack containers). This set the precedent for being to throw a sissy fit when you lose and just claim it was a fake result. This is now the new political borm; it’ll likely happen with every election.”

    My answers to this are several-fold. First, I am in agreement with you that Russiagate was bad, I said so at the time, and I argued to my friends who didn’t really have a problem with it that it was reactionary nonsense based on basically unfalsifiable premises.

    But I do not see how it “leads directly” to the GOP deciding that the actual vote counts are wrong, and the electoral vote count must be ceased. What Russiagate did not entail, and what all the Hamilton 68 nonsense (which, notably and happily, did not come to pass) did not entail, was a denial of the actual vote counts. Nor was the argument that the electoral results were facially incorrect and illegal, and that the transfer of power at a legal level was not legitimate, one that the various HRC 2016 ultras made.

    One may view this as pedantic or hair-splitting, but I view it as quite serious, this move to denying the legality and factuality of things that are demonstrably both legal and factual.

    I would note additionally that an attempt to spin PR against a President based on spurious foreign influence is actually pretty old in the history of the Republic; according to their bitterest detractors, both Jefferson and Adams were the dupes of France and Britain, respectively (short answer: no, they weren’t). Not good, but not new.

    What is new, however, is the violent disruption of the legal mechanics of the transfer of power itself, with the single and extremely massively significant exception of the Secession Crisis of 1860-61, which I believe proves my point — the legal mechanics of things matter a great deal.

    This is why I say there is a categorical difference between, on the one hand, attempting to use the intelligence community, the press, and a special prosecutor to smear and McCarthyite style slander a candidate and political faction — which is bad! — and on the other hand, a violent storming of and seizure of the seat of the national legislature with the Vice President having to flee for his life before an enraged mob, a mob ginned up to heights of ferocity by no less than the Chief Magistrate himself, who is tasked with seeing that the laws are carried out.

    In general, I would like to see a defense or minimization of whatever we want to call it of January 6th that does not rely on “tu quoque” arguments with respect to the Democrats. That defends it on its own positive grounds. Their absence here and elsewhere is notable to me.

    Finally, different clue — I agree with and have taken very seriously the idea I believe you and others have raised here, of “Civic life rafts,” which I think of as “civic arks”; one of the themes of Ian and others here is that survivalism must take place in communities, and therefore, I consider my participation in local town meeting politics — which note are not electoral politics, a Town Meeting is a parliamentary body that every registered voter is a member of — quite a strong form of survivalist activity, if that makes sense.

    For instance: My town produces a great deal of food (seafood, primarily), and we are used to managing these commons together, and at least with the forms of the law and direct democracy (of course, rich oyster farmers dominate small oyster farmers, we aren’t utopia). I see this becoming more, not less important.

    I would also just say, in general: things are more mixed in the offline world than in the online world. It’s really hard to tell a New Dealer from a DLC Democrat in real life until you apply pressure of events and crisis. Most of them just like every Democrat, no matter what; only events pressure them do we see if FDR or Clinton comes out.

    Same is true on the GOP side. Is this person Everett Dirksen or Ronald Reagan? I will say the center right-hard right fight locally is the most bitter and interesting. They hate each other. 50 votes of thousands cast separate the center right and far right State Senate candidates locally, e.g.

    Thanks again to all for your comments.

  12. bruce wilder

    I really should be giving concrete references for my string of abstractions. This “footnote” to my previous comment is inadequate I know, but offered for what it is worth.

    Nicolle Hannah-Jones, celebrated NY Times journalist and principal author of that publication’s 1619 Project could stand as an example. And the WSWS’s critique is very useful. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/11/26/1619-n26.html

    The campaign by the Cato Institute and other Right-wing institutions against the Davis-Bacon Act exemplifies how the right uses “racism” in retconning long-standing progressive standards. George Will here: https://www.lenconnect.com/story/opinion/columns/2017/06/19/george-will-racist-history-1931/20534501007/

  13. bruce wilder

    another example of the ineffectual nature of “right-attitude” politics: the politics of universal health care.

    there are factions that will push for the slogan/concept “health care should be a human right” as if universalizing that belief is the goal of the political campaign.

    there are a lot of reasons — taken altogether wildly contradictory — to favor some form of universal health care. small-d democratic politics requires papering over those contradictions and making all the arguments that can secure support and/or deflect opposition. in any democratic deliberation there’s a lot of more agreeing-to-disagree than there is kumbaya.

    trying to instill “right-attitudes”, such as “health should be a human right”, imho, is often motivated as much by laziness with regard to fleshing out more prosaic nuts-and-bolts arguments as it is a desire to signal personal virtue. too much of either motivation effective campaigning and organizing.

  14. bruce wilder

    @Swamp Yankee

    Like Soredemos, I think the Democrats protest too stridently when they try to elevate the Jan 6 riot into a putsch or coup. Puffing out their chests, as you do as well, and pretentiously asserting a “categorical difference” is just more posturing, not a real argument.

    A Republican would have answers on every point you make and more. And not “and so is your mother” arguments, either, but arguments based on interpreting just the facts of the event itself alone without reference to “what about” arguments. So, don’t say those arguments have not been made. That is disingenuous of you. Tucker Carlson, among others, has labored thru a lot of detail including video clips, so we are not talking about any thing obscure or hard to find.

    Just as one example, when you write, “a mob ginned up to heights of ferocity by no less than the Chief Magistrate himself”, Republicans would come right back quoting DJT in real time saying, “be peaceful” et cetera. Republicans generally see in shadowy outline an entrapment with provocateurs and strident post-event narratives built on very selective editing of events.

    I am not a Republican and I am not going to waste my time reciting arguments I would not make in my own voice for my own cause. I will say I would not be shaming Republicans over Jan 6 or excusing Democrats their reckless perfidy. Trump’s people were incompetent in arguing election-rigging as Trump’s people are often incompetent in other contexts. It is a pattern. That said, I do not see objective proof that voting and vote-counting were not fraudulent in many places, including my locality (Los Angeles County) where the vote count is designed to be impossible to audit or verify properly. Rather obviously the Democrats would win even a fair and accurate vote count here in California, but that does not mean they conducted one. Democrats across the country have long pushed mail-in ballots which have many obvious vulnerabilities, which Democrats naturally deny with academic “studies” as is their wont. Democrats have cheated in their own national fund-raising and in their conduct of their own primaries. They have plenty of form. Too much for you to be so overconfident about “facts” no one can really prove.

    Anyway I digress. My point is that the Democrats would cheat to “win” an election and are not agreeable to measures to make sure cheating harder than it is. Republicans believe the Democrats are systematically setting up opportunities cheat in the future and they have receipts even if they do not have iron-clad proof.

    By the way, the would-be Confederates in 1860 did not dispute the national vote count or the validity of the Electoral College poll. There was a lot of fear of the potential for violent interference with the ceremonial transfer of power, but nothing of the sort happened. That may be because of the massive effort to protect the Capitol. But it is also because the would-be Confederates, styling themselves conservatives, followed procedures they argued were constitutionally valid, and they were opposed by conservatives like Lincoln, who argued otherwise. It was the radical, Garrison, who wanted nothing to with the Constitution on principle.

  15. Swamp Yankee

    Bruce Wilder,

    I have several responses to your statement above. The first comes in response to your statement that “Puffing out their chests, as you do as well, and pretentiously asserting a ‘categorical difference’ is just more posturing, not a real argument.”

    How is this not a real argument? My argument is that these actions by the Dems post 2016 and the Republicans post 2020 are in different _categories_: one is violent, the other is not. The plain evidence that one was violent, and the other was not, is before us all; unless we are going down postmodernism road and going to maintain that Hamilton 68 or Russiagate was just as “violent” as the storming of the Capitol.

    I say, no: they are both bad, but they are different categories; they are different in kind and in degree, in my view. The ways they are different is that no physical force was used in one, and it was in the other. I don’t see how you overcome this elementary difference between the two examples. So, yes, this is an argument, it’s simply one you have difficulty meeting.

    As far as Tucker Carlson et al’s defense of 1/6/21 goes: there were sixty-some adjudications of the claims of vote fraud and electoral irregularities, largely by GOP-appointed judges; none were proven to have any merit by any court. I don’t see how Carlson et al. overcome the fact that the riot which they defend was not, unlike the Black Lives Matters riots of 2020, based in some actual material grievance; it was, in short, entirely made up. This is surely germane.

    On that notion of made-up, you write above “I do not see objective proof that voting and vote-counting were not fraudulent in many places, including my locality (Los Angeles County) where the vote count is designed to be impossible to audit or verify properly.”

    I’m not sure how much in earnest you are here; I remain of the perhaps old-fashioned view that we have to have proof _for_ something, and that not being able to prove something isn’t true is, well, not how reasoning works. If there is evidence of fraud, by all means, bring it forward. But not having evidence something didn’t happen is, in short, nothing.

    As for the idea that Trump was asking that crowd to be “peaceful” and restrained: that is belied by the timeline of that day. At 1:30 pm, the Capitol Police lose control of the Capitol. Trump is aware of this fact. He tweets at 2:24 pm:

    “Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify. USA demands the truth!”

    Subsequent to that, according to the Executive Summary of the Jan. 6th Committee report, “The sentiment expressed in President Trump’s 2:24 p.m. tweet, already present in the crowd, only grew more powerful as the President’s words spread. Timothy Hale-Cusanelli—a white supremacist who expressed Nazi sympathies—heard about the tweet while in the Crypt around 2:25 p.m., and he, according to the Department of Justice, ‘knew what that meant.’ Vice President Pence had decided not to keep President Trump in power.

    Other rioters described what happened next as follows:

    ‘Once we found out Pence turned on us and that they had stolen the
    election, like officially, the crowd went crazy. I mean, it became a
    mob. We crossed the gate.
    Then we heard the news on [P]ence . . . And lost it . . . So we
    stormed.'” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack; https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/pdf/GPO-J6-REPORT.pdf)

    I don’t see how Trump avoids culpability given these facts. The degree of special pleading which I’m-not-really-defending-Trump-but-here-I-go-defending-him interlocutors, whether on this site or others, rely upon is truly remarkable, and would not be extended to the Democrats by these same interlocutors (note: I am unenrolled).

    Since you’ve engaged in a number of ad hominems above (“Puffed up their chests, as you do”; baselessly impugning me as “disingenuous” — note that I say above that the “absence [of non tu quoque arguments] here and elsewhere is notable to me. ” I didn’t say, as you purport I did, that “[these] arguments haven’t been made” ), I think it appropriate to engage in some pro-hominems: I’m an academic historian of America from the colonial era through 1865, and to say that the Secession Crisis was did not involve the Confederates “disput[ing] the national vote count or the validity of the Electoral College poll. There was a lot of fear of the potential for violent interference with the ceremonial transfer of power, but nothing of the sort happened,” as you do above, I believe misses the point of the Secession Crisis entirely.

    They didn’t dispute the legal mechanics of the transfer of power because they were disputing the Union itself, and they were doing so, in large part, because the electoral results were ones they did not accept as legitimate. We can see this by examining the Alabama Ordinance of Secession dated Jan. 11th, 1861, which reads, in part:

    “Whereas, the election of Abraham Lincoln and Hannibal Hamlin to the offices of president and vice-president of the United States of America, by a sectional party, avowedly hostile to the domestic institutions and to the peace and security of the people of the State of Alabama, preceded by many and dangerous infractions of the constitution of the United States by many of the States and people of the Northern section, is a political wrong of so insulting and manacing a character as to justify the people of the State of Alabama in the adoption of prompt and decided measures for their future peace and security, therefore:

    Be it declared and ordained by the people of the State of Alabama, in Convention assembled, That the State of Alabama now withdraws, and is hereby withdrawn from the Union known as “the United States of America,” and henceforth ceases to be one of said United States, and is, and of right ought to be a Sovereign and Independent State.” (https://web.archive.org/web/20190809080450/https://www.constitution.org/csa/ordinances_secession.htm#South%20Carolina)

    So, no, they aren’t disputing the electoral college because they are doing something much worse and bigger, exploding the Union itself.

    Finally, to say that Lincoln was a “conservative” in the context of the Election of 1860 betrays a remarkably tendentious and ahistorical understanding of the politics of the 1850s-1860s and the rise of the Third Party System.

    Lincoln is a part of the moderate wing of one of the more radical parties in American history, the original Republican Party. To say he was “a conservative” is simply not supported by the evidence, since that entire party was devoted to undoing the prior political order, the Second Party System of Jackson vs. the Whigs. “Conservative” is, first of all, an ahistorical term in the way it is used above; if we are even to use it, which we shouldn’t, but if we are, in 1860 “conservatives” are people like Stephen Douglass, or Buchanan or Pierce, or the late Daniel Webster — people who see essentially avoiding the question of slavery as the chief goal of US politics. The Republican Party, whether led by dark horse Lincoln or by Seward, the original leading candidate, is thus in no sense “conservative” here, and I’m not sure, given the realities of US politics in the 1850s-1860s, on what basis anyone could fairly say it was. They are reformers, and they aren’t burning the Constitution like some, but “conservative” simply isn’t accurate.

    Garrison was a radical, to be sure; and his radicalism was massively ineffective until coupled with the political power of the Republican Party and the military power of the Union Army.

    I think in general a lot of people have let their anger at the Democratic Party, which is justified, cause them to lose sight of the fact that the GOP are in fact vicious reactionaries who are worse. Perhaps spending more time among these latter would prove clarifying.

  16. Swamp Yankee

    On a related note, in what may be a microcosm for politics in the United States in 2024, a nearby town, which I know well, has a decision before it, of whether to adopt, via its Town Meeting and then followed by a ballot election, the Massachusetts Community Preservation Act (CPA).

    To my mind, the CPA is a really good statute, premised upon the Commonwealth thought which underlies the Massachusetts Constitution; this is a living example of the civic republican political tradition which Tony Wikrent writes about so insightfully here.

    Its purpose is to protect towns and cities from just total destruction of their natural and civic and economic life by market forces.

    Towns which adopt the Community Preservation Act levy a tax on property of between 1 and 3 percent (I wish this weren’t regressive, but it is; it’s balanced by various exemptions. The tendency since the tax revolts of the 70s has been in that direction, including in True Blue Massachusetts).

    This money is then matched by the state government. The money has to be spent, by a municipal committee established for that purpose, on either open space, recreation, affordable housing, or historical preservation (again, with a complicated formula).

    What this has meant in practice is that towns and cities which have adopted the act have been able to do things like take a former church camp on the sea which could have become another bankster McMansion and purchase it for the town and turn it into a public park, e.g., or to preserve cranberry bogs and adjacent forestsrather than have them turned into subdivisions.

    To adopt it, you have to approve it at Town Meeting (or via City Council), and then it goes to the Town/City in a ballot election.

    In the Town of H_______, a conservative town and one of the last holdouts in not adopting the CPA, a group of well-meaning liberals, as I’d identify them, has decided to try to adopt the CPA in the Town of H________.

    The local hard right has decided that the Community Preservation Act, since it involves an increase in taxes, is ipso facto a sign of incipient Bolshevik Revolution, and must be resisted noisily and crazily on local community Facebook pages, where in the absence of a vigorous local press, much discussion and news dissemination takes place (in this sense, it reminds me of the tavern culture of the 18th c Atlantic world).

    This has led the liberals supporting the CPA to …. turn off commenting and start trying to insist that people not discuss public things on the local Facebook page.

    Rather than, you know, making the affirmative argument for their case. It’s almost shocking in its poltical malpractice and just cluelessness.

    So you have, on the one hand, the local hard right, insisting that any kind of taxation for public purpose is the first step to the gulag archipelago; and then, the liberals who are so afraid of conflict they literally won’t make their own case.

    I’d make the affirmative argument, but in our system, this is an internal affair of that Town and I will be seen to lack “standing” (and justifiably so, I’m not from there and don’t live there, despite my friends doing so and loving the place).

  17. Swamp Yankee

    *sorry, H_____ is one of the last hold outs _locally_ in not adopting the CPA; its adoption is far from universal among the 351 towns and cities of Massachusetts.

  18. Willy

    I think in general a lot of people have let their anger at the Democratic Party, which is justified, cause them to lose sight of the fact that the GOP are in fact vicious reactionaries…

    The latest news on the prog side is about all the large sum monies going into the right wing influencer world, with bots pumping up subscriber counts. “Large sum” as in from extremely wealthy people, organizations, and nations. This would explain why polls show significant, even overwhelming support for progressive positions, yet surprisingly large subscriber counts and income levels for places peddling the opposite.

    It makes sense that the same, but to a lesser and more… “feckless” degree of influence is being paid for on the establishment Dem side, to keep their policies weak, and more
    importantly, their progs in line, if not from power and influence entirely. But that’s not today’s news.

  19. bruce wilder

    The BLM riots were not political violence in the way Jan 6 was because material interests were involved? The looting absolved the Democrats?

  20. Swamp Yankee

    Bruce, it would be helpful for this discussion if you didn’t so consistently strawman and misrepresent what I say. What I said above was:

    ” I don’t see how Carlson et al. overcome the fact that the riot which they defend was not, unlike the Black Lives Matters riots of 2020, based in some actual material grievance; it was, in short, entirely made up. This is surely germane.”

    Nowhere did I say, as you allege above, that “The BLM riots were not political violence in the way Jan 6 was because material interests were involved?”

    Rather, the Black Lives Matter were indeed a form of civil disorder, in some cases becoming political violence like when the rioters attacked a police station (and they should not have done that). They were a form of civil disorder and political violence that _arose from real grievances_, namely an innocent black man being murdered in the street by law enforcement [sic] authorities, again.

    George Floyd was in fact murdered by the police. We all saw it. Whereas the alleged electoral fraud which drove the riot on Jan. 6th, 2021, _did not in fact happen_.

    In general, I believe the cause which impels political violence is important for a reasonable assessment of it. Shays’ Rebellion, an agrarian debtors’ revolt by the rural yeomanry of Massachusetts, is in fact quite different from the War of the Rebellion (Civil War), a revolt led by enormously wealthy slaveocrats who couldn’t accept losing an election, who felt their right to rule was so natural that mere democracy ought not to be able to overcome it.

    So let me ask you, Bruce: do you believe there was a factual basis for the claims which actuated the rioters on January 6th, 2021? Do you think the 2020 election was stolen?

  21. different clue

    If I were to say that ( insert name here) is a one-shtick phony, that could well be not-publishable on the grounds of being ad hominem and personally insulting. But if I were to note that a visible pattern of advancing and re-advancing fake non-arguments and offering irrelevant rhetorical tricks in order to lure the unwary into engaging with velcro decoy tarbabies set up by the side of the road is the visible sign of a ” one-shtick phony” in action, would that also be unpublishable as potentially ad hominem and potentially personally insulting?

  22. different clue

    Some on the “left” support Trump because of a sense of personal grievance over how the Clintobamacratic Party veal-penned a lot of bloggers and got some of them fired from their jobs or got their jobs fired out from under them. I remember one of the principal bloggers at Naked Capitalism writing about how he was de-jobbed by the Clintobamacrats and their War On Bloggers.

    The desire for vengeance after suffering something like that is normal, natural and understandable. Some of the people at Naked Capitalism want to see Trump re-elected out of pure spitred and hatred towards the Democrats, and a drive to get revenge on them and the schadenfreudian joy they anticipate being able to feel if they can see the Democrats owned by a Trump victory.

    That is my theory for why Naked Capitalism is supporting Trump every which way they feel like they can get away with under an increasingly threadbare cloak of implausible deniability. If my theory is correct, their support for Trump will become less and less covert, eventually overt, and then shrieking in its hysterical despair if it looks like Harris is on track to winning.

    ” Leftists for Trump” remind me of what I once read about Gregor Strasser, a very early Nazi Party leader who imagined he could make the Nazi Party into a Left Wing party, or at least a Leftish Wingish party. Hitler informed him in 1934 that he would be allowed to do no such thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregor_Strasser
    I sometimes think elements of today’s “left” have silly fantasies about somehow Strasserizing the Republicans, or the Conservatives or the Right Wing or whatever. I myself don’t think such a thing can be done. But some ex-Democrats hate the Democratic Party with such a white hot heat of so many thousands of suns that they are willing to give it a good hard try.

  23. Swamp Yankee

    @Eric Anderson — agreed on the strange disconnect, where someone is pretty rational on other issues, and then it’s like you turn a switch on with respect to state or national politics, and suddenly our extremely cautious moderateDem governor is a Communist (she’s not).

    @Glasshammer — I think you’re really onto something with honor culture. It’s part of their fixation on being able to use guns in personal defense, which is basically a pre-industrial, honor culture attitude — I think Bertram Wyatt-Brown’s book on Southern honor culture is interesting here.

    @Mark Level — This is undoubtedly true, on the whole: “The Dimmie voters are passive suckers who won’t just vote for, but will sincerely “love” whatever sellout, soulless ShitLib dogshit the party (s)elects for the top of the ticket. ”

    I will have to vote for Harris/Walz, especially comparing the Democratic and GOP platforms, but I think it’s important that we not delude ourselves about them. Whereas many PMC friends just went in whole-hog for the “vibes” nonsense. The reduction of politics to pop cultural tribalism is a real problem. This isn’t football or Taylor Swift; I’d like arguments, not memes.

    @Willy — I certainly imagine they are buying bot subscribers, on both sides. I think one of the key differences is that many contemporary liberals I meet are just so conflict-averse they have difficulty advocating for and defending their own position.

    Whereas the conservatives/hard right have no problem with that, though they have serious and basically disqualifying flaws with respect to empiricism and rational argumentation. But that’s hard to make clear if no one will engage them (I do have rules about that, which are basically similar to “standing”; meaning I argue against them when they are in my town or on an issue that crosses town lines; one can’t argue against all right-wingers everywhere all the time, we all have limited resources).

  24. Willy

    BLM riots were targeted towards urban police culture, specifically the kind where drivers keep getting pulled over shit like DWB. That means driving while black.

    Looters come from a different tribe, the kind that’s more into taking advantage of chaos and less into any political cause. The Jan 6 riots involved Dear Leader telling his supplicant minions that he’d been treated unfairly. There seems to be a difference there. I can think of Super Bowl victory riots where cops were attacked and looting took place. Should the NFL be blamed? I’ll let wiser mind decide.

    Wait a sec. That comment may not have been directed at me. Never mind.

    About buying influence, to be fair, while Russia, China, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been the most notorious machinators of international political influence of late, the USA was the grandaddy/godfather of political influence in times past. Back on topic, most of their money is going to Republican and conservative influencers, piggybacking atop that from American plutocrats, another reason why the left taking over the republican party is harder.

  25. bruce wilder

    I wrote a long, more reflective comment that I imagined would precede the BLM comment. Lost in the aether I guess — no regret, since it wasn’t that great, but it does leave the BLM comment as something of a lone potshot. Glad it landed, though.

  26. Ian Welsh

    Bruce,

    seems like the aether, indeed. Checked spam, it wasn’t there, and I didn’t not approve it.

  27. Swamp Yankee

    Bruce, congrats on your attempt at a potshot (by which I understand: a glib and meritless distortion of someone else’s argument).

    The answer to a simple question would help this discussion, which I did ask above, but haven’t received an answer from you on: do you believe the claims which underlay the Jan. 6th riots — e.g. the assertion by Trump et al. that the 2020 election was stolen — are true?

  28. Swamp Yankee

    @different clue — yes, the “Tankies for Trump” phenomenon, as I have come to think of it, is a real one, though perhaps highly limited to extremely online leftists, and less in evidence in the real, offline, material world.

    To me, the incoherence of deciding that the Democratic Party is to be rejected because it is not left enough, while the candidate who calls for firing striking workers in the course of a conversation with the world’s leading robber baron is to be embraced, is fundamental and irreparable.

    I do think you’re right that a lot of it is just personal. From reading certain sites you mention, it seems like a lot of the people who have made this “I was so Left until my feelings got hurt and now I’ll vote for the Right but I’m still the _real_ Left” (hint: no, you aren’t) are individuals who live in college towns or other places where they are surrounded by — admittedly annoying and entirely unselfaware — bourgeois liberals, and deal very little with the atavistic hard right elements that make up the modern GOP. They are therefore free to project their fantasies onto them, Obama 2008-style.

    I do just wish they would be outright and open about their views, instead of, as you say so well, hiding under this “increasingly threadbare cloak of implausible deniability.”

  29. Swamp Yankee

    There is a missing “jump” in my third paragraph in the second clause of the second sentence. My apologies!

  30. Swamp Yankee

    @Different clue, to answer your question on ad hominems.

    My view is that an ad hominem is attacking the person and integrity of an interlocutor rather than the validity and persuasiveness of the argument they are making. This includes making groundless charges of bad faith argument (which is, ironically, itself a form of bad faith argument).

    Thus, in my view, to say that an argument is “glib and meretricious” is acceptable; to say the _person_ (hominem) making the argument is “glib and meretricious,” or to castigate elements of their person, is not.

    It is easy for all of us, in times of passion, to move towards ad hominem styles of argumentation, myself included, so I do try to avoid that, and my sincere apologies if any think I have made an argument ad hominem against them.

    My goal is to debate arguments and not personalities.

  31. Willy

    I knew of a “far leftist” commenter who after being unable to persuade rationally, began ad hominem-ing profusely. When I told them that behavior caused them to lose the argument in the eyes of many, I became their next target. Sadly, it was too late for me to go by the handle “ad hominem.” With “Willy”, they had less to work with.

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