Category: Electoral Politics Page 6 of 30

It’s traditional on New Year to either do a retrospective or a look forward. Let’s look forward to 2024.

Since the election, it has become conventional wisdom that Trump is defeated, and the “next” Trump will be more dangerous. I have been pointing this out from 2016 on, repeatedly: Even if Trump wanted to do all the things his critics feared, he was too incompetent to pull them off.

The person who isn’t Trump who is the most likely heir presumptive and the “actually dangerous” one is Josh Hawley.

First there is the fact that, along with Bernie Sanders, he was the primary person other than Trump pushing for a $2,000 check. His name was on that, all through the news. Trump’s final attempt to help the American people, and he was the champion.

Second, there is his move to force debate on whether to certify the election results.

Thanks ⁦@Walmart⁩ for your insulting condescension. Now that you’ve insulted 75 million Americans, will you at least apologize for using slave labor? pic.twitter.com/oYJP4Cv2qE

— Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) December 30, 2020

You can think that this is bullshit, and still recognize that it is smart politics. About three-quarters of Republicans think that there was significant voter fraud.

Hawley has now positioned himself as the champion of ordinary Americans and the only Senator willing to fight Trump’s doomed last stand.

He is the heir presumptive, and, at least at this point, it seems likely the only person who could beat in him the 2024 Republican primaries would be Trump himself.

As for the general, it seems most likely right now that Biden will fumble the economy, leaving a huge opening for another right-wing populist run.

Remember, until Covid, the economy was doing well. Trumponomics, as I noted in 2017, more-or-less worked. The UI payment increases and extensions were — and are — incredibly popular, and credited to Trump. If Biden’s economy isn’t as good as Trump’s before Covid, he (or Harris) is in for a world of hurt.

And in the tweet above, Hawley is running against Walmart. This is sheerest hypocrisy given he opposed a minimum wage increase in Missouri (which passed anyway), but it doesn’t matter; that won’t be remembered and this tweet will, especially if he says “I was wrong”, which he will.

AOC is Bernie’s heir, and Hawley seems to be moving into the position of Trump’s.

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Plus c’est la même chose

By Mandos

On December 31, 2020

33 Comments

***MANDOS POST MANDOS POST MANDOS POST****

Jeremiads notwithstanding, it appears that Biden’s strategy of appealing to Trump-disgusted suburban voters worked. At the US presidential level, at least, left-populists and Sanders supporters proved to be essentially irrelevant, politically. The Democratic consultant class has had its biases confirmed. What is, haha, left to the left-wing populist is to double down on the jeremiads: to predict that in the future, the inevitable failure of now-successful beige neoliberal centrism to reinstate its heavenly mandate in the USA will result, down the road, in the election of a smart fascist/right-populist Man On Horseback, if we’re lucky, merely a Viktor Orbán figure or suchlike for the American context — or worse, possibly much worse.

This reasoning seems very plausible to me. Because it is true that unless the neoliberal establishment has a change of heart, Bidenist/Obamaist US leadership will not be able to turn the ship around from an on-going trajectory of national and global decline. And insofar as that decline is felt in shrinking living standards, and insofar as “beige centrism” manages to suppress left-wing alternatives, the population will likely turn to forceful/violent right-wing populism, and all the inherent divide-and-conquer grifts that right-wing populism brings with it alongside the nationalist emotional highs and the “sugar rush.” As I said, it seems very plausible.

One of the bad habits of neoliberal intellectualism is an excessive reliance on “counter-intuitive” explanations as exemplified by the once-popular book Freakonomics. We should be rightly suspicious of narratives that tell us that things we view in common-sense terms as bad are actually good. Sometimes counter-intuitive explanations like that are valid, but only sometimes. But we should not fall into the reverse trap and always uncritically accept simpler explanations that happen to match our moral intuitions. A common left-wing moral intuition is what I explained above: A people increasingly deprived of access to the good life and unable to access progressive responses to that deprivation will eventually provide reactionary forces a breakthrough. It has, after all, happened before.

It is the implied determinism that we should view with at least a little bit of suspicion. First of all, although we should heed history’s warning signs, history actually does not truly repeat reliably, and context matters. Trump’s senility and incompetence was, in point of fact, part of the Trump political brand. It was the riposte to a failing elite in a time when elite “competence-signalling” was part of the elite self-image. The specific trajectory to the “competent Trump” is much harder to fathom, when the incompetence was specifically a part of what he was and still is lionized for by his most ardent followers.

If we leave aside the typical and easy materialist determinism that thrives particularly on the more left end of the spectrum and accept a little bit of “counter-intuitive” reasoning, a different picture emerges. One in which the success and failure of Trump was highly dependent on circumstances over and above material discontent, circumstances that are difficult to line up again. Circumstances in which the very competence of the future feared competent fascistoid is one of the features that prevents his (or her) rise, just to give a possibility. One in which the bad memory of Trump is sufficiently mobilizing for a long enough period of time that the mainstream neoliberal centre is protected from attempts at overcoming it.

In that world, between every election, things just keep getting worse and worse. And yet, the process of coalition building in a complex society given the American political system simply throws up Biden after Biden, Democrat or Republican. Decline centrism, unending. Like Tyler Durden’s vision in Fight Club, with people drying meat on the asphalt of a ruined highway, except they’re still arguing over whether they should choose the chieftain with the red trim or the blue trim as head chieftain, out of fear that one of them might reduce the incentives created by the fear of winter freezing by their proposed “peltfare” program.

Imagine this future: the soft, dirty sole of a comfortable white Reebok runner gently stroking a human cheek — forever.

The Good Scenario For America’s Future

By Ian Welsh

On November 10, 2020

93 Comments

So, the default scenario is that Biden rules for 4 to 8 years, maybe Harris for another 4, then we get a more disciplined right wing “populist.” In the meantime, nothing that will actually change the trend-lines has been done about climate change or the continued concentration of wealth and power. America continues to be divided into two tribes who hate each other, while the West as a whole stagnates under neoliberalism and a second block, led by China, with Russia and many developing nations, especially in Africa and South America, forming, with its own payments, legal and trade system. The world descends into Cold War 2.0 as climate change continues its advance.

What’s the good scenario for the United States?

AOC, basically. In 2022 she takes out Schumer and becomes a Senator. In 2024 she primaries Biden or Harris and wins.

Likely? No.

Impossible? Also, no.

AOC is popular, Schumer is a lame duck. If she goes for him, I give her the nod to win. Having taken out the Senate leader, she looks unstoppable.

The primary will be extremely difficult to win. Obama, Clinton, Clyburn and all the usual suspects will do everything they can to cheat her of a win, just as they did with Sanders twice. But AOC is clearly Bernie’s heir, having saved his bacon when he had a heart-attack, and never having betrayed him as Warren did. Unlike Sanders, she is genuinely charismatic, and like him she will pack massive arenas and have huge support from the grassroots and activists.

Assuming Biden has been weak-tea, there’s an opening for her. Odd are slightly against her, but it’s not impossible.

Then we come to the general election. Contrary to what centrists claim, progressives running on Medicare-4-All did very well in this election, as did policies like a $15/hour wage. An aggressively progressive platform, with concrete job promises so people know where they go when fracking goes away, can win. A real Green New Deal offers tens of millions of good jobs.

AOC’s national numbers aren’t the greatest, but I suspect this can be turned around. The people who hate AOC don’t vote Democratic anyway (no, Republicans do not vote Democratic) and she activates constituencies which are only loosely attached to the electorate.

In fact, I see the primary as a bigger problem than the General: if AOC gets the nomination, she’s likely to win, because she can run both against unpopular Democratic politics and Republican ones. Running on an actual popular program, she stands a good chance of controlling both the House and Senate.

At that point, an FDR style Presidency which overturns everything is possible, and if the Supremes try to stop it, threaten them with court-packing. They either fold (as FDR’s court did) or they don’t, either way, it’s done.

Now this scenario isn’t the most likely (and yeah, she’s not perfect, but she’s the best on offer and way better than anyone else who could run), but it is the only possible scenario I can see right now that leaves the US in a good place.

May this, or something similar, be so.

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It’s Essentially Over

By Ian Welsh

On November 6, 2020

40 Comments

Trump’s losing Georgia and he’s going to lose Pennsylvania. His law suits are being tossed.

He’s done.

Update: A good piece on why Trump actually has a case in PA. Doesn’t look like it will matter, Biden will have enough electoral college votes without, but worth reading. (h/t commenter S. Brennan.)

We Do All Understand The Trump Play To Win The Election Even If He Loses?

By Ian Welsh

On November 5, 2020

60 Comments

Trump’s election plan (in addition to standard voter suppression, like having almost no machines in poor ridings.):

Tell Republicans not to vote by mail, and claim there is a lot of fraud.
Have DeJoy, his man in the Post Office slow down and damage mail delivery, slowing down ballot delivery and losing ballots.
Have Republican legislatures in important states forbid counting mail in and early vote ballots before election day.
If the election is close, go to court to stop the counting of votes after election day.

This isn’t obscure, this is obvious and if you don’t know this is the case you either don’t pay much attention (fair enough) or you don’t want to know it.

The most basic principle of democracy is that you count votes fairly. The Democrats are not faultless here, they went out of their way to keep Greens off the ballot and suppressed voters and slow-counted votes for Bernie Sanders. They simply aren’t doing this much against Republicans (despite various claims) because in general, higher turnouts in battleground States are good for Democrats, and voter suppression (almost always in poor and minority areas, hits Democratic voters hard.)

Trump is in the wrong right now. I don’t think it’s going to matter, because the Republican establishment isn’t lining up for him. Still, one shouldn’t entirely count out the Supremes (if it gets that far, which it may not, as I’m not sure the suits are large enough to change the end result), where it will probably come down to who owns Kavanaugh and what they want.

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Why Is The Election So Close?

By Ian Welsh

On November 4, 2020

85 Comments

It’s a little after 2 am, and the election still isn’t called. It could go either way. It looks fairly sure that Dems won’t retake the Senate (and if they do it’ll be by one Senator.)

Let’s put this in perspective, Donald Trump is clearly mentally defective, and he fumbled Covid-19, the result of which was to kill over 200K Americans and throw millions into poverty.

In other words, like 2016, this was an election Democrats should have won easily.

Trump out-campaigned Biden (ten rallies in the last two days of the election.) It’s going to come out that Democrats fumbled battleground states again, not putting enough resources into them, as Clinton did.

But the bottom line is that Democrats keep choosing bad candidates. Biden has no virtues other than a sort of sleazy but OK Uncle vibe. He’s carrying all the baggage of being a shitty neoliberal all his life, who voted for every war in sight and fucked the poor and middle class every chance he got. He’s senile (though no worse than Trump) and he doesn’t have Trump’s stamina.

Two men made this happen. Sanders was moving towards victory when Clyburn gave Biden the southern Black vote with his endorsement, and Obama leaned on all the other candidates to drop out. Boom! Biden wins the nomination.

Sanders is not in senile decline, polled better against Trump (yeah, the polls all underestimated Trump but he had more of a margin), and was able to pack arenas while maintaining a campaigning pace to equal Trump. Nor was he saddled with neoliberal baggage. He has crossover appeal to independents and even Republicans, the people you need to come out to win (Democrats alone cannot carry an election.)

Biden has done worse among everyone but white men than Clinton did. He’s just a bad candidate.

But this is the iron rule of oligarchy in motion. It is better for Democratic power-holders to lose with Biden than win with Sanders. We saw this in England, where we have emails proving that Labour operatives went so far as to actively work against Corbyn in 2017 (and where MPs sandbagged him all through his tenure.)

Biden, like Clinton, ran on “Trump sucks.” Trump ran on a lot of fear of Democrats, a lot of paranoia, but he also ran with MAGA—”I”m going to make things great!”

Although Biden had a relatively progressive platform, that was not the message everyone was hearing. It was “Trump is bad, let’s go back to the good old days.” The problem is that the good old days weren’t great for a lot of people, and pre-Covid polls showed that a majority of Americans felt they were better off than 3 year prior.

Worse, in a lot of states Trump has won the Covid debate: the belief is that it wasn’t fumbling Covid that was the problem, but that Covid is no big deal and if there had just been no closures at all, everything would have been fine. People believe that.

In short, Dems keep running people with bad track records who are responsible for the worse parts of America’s economy and history. Clinton was unlikable, Biden is senile, neither ran an energetic, aggressive campaign of hope.

Biden may still get in (by the time you read this, perhaps he will have) but he won’t have a huge mandate, and he’s unlikely to have a Senate he can work with. None of that need cripple his Presidency, IF he is willing to use executive power aggressively and coordinate with the House, but this is not a wave election.

Finally, if you believe this is all about racism (despite Obama winning handily twice) remember that “racism” is not a plan unless you know how to deactivate it enough to win. If the US is irredeemably racist, well, that doesn’t leave a lot of room.

On the other hand, perhaps running on popular policies like Medicare4All and a $15 (or higher) minimum wage (which passed in Florida even as Biden lost the state); offering a message of hope, not fear, with a candidate who is energetic, can command huge crowds and is not senile or unlikeable, might win it despite American’s racism. Worked for Obama (even if he lied about the hope part), and he was actually black.

So I’d suggest that while racism matters, it isn’t determinative. Having a good candidate with a good message is.

This election shouldn’t be this close. It is because of the Democratic party chose a terrible candidate and ran a bad campaign.

Update (10:26 Eastern): Looking like Biden, unless Trump gets the Supremes to overturn it.

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The Day Before The US Election

By Ian Welsh

On November 2, 2020

40 Comments

So, the big day is nigh. Another 4 years of Trump, or four to eight years of Biden and whoever actually runs his administration?

Trump’s domestic record has been pretty bad. The economy was doing well before Covid-19, but his complete bungling of the response has thrown millions into poverty and enriched oligarchs. It was possible to control Covid, countries from New-Zealand to Vietnam have done far better jobs.

In terms of civil liberties Trump is even worse than Obama, which is saying something. Environmentally he’s a disaster (he just opened up an arctic reserve to roads and thus logging and mining, not his first such action.)

He hasn’t started any wars but he has ramped up droning and other types of bombing, again over Obama’s already insane levels (which were increased from Bush Jr’s.)

In foreign affairs, Trump has pursued a relatively unilateral policy, trade wars and so on. I don’t agree with all of it, and I think he’s pushing the US towards a cold war with China, but while Biden will be more multilateral, he will also push for a cold war with China (China’s not going to submit to American rules the way DC wants, so insisting it does means splitting the world in two.)

Biden’s very aggressive on foreign affairs, and is more likely to start a new war than Trump. He will be better environmentally though not enough to matter a great deal (his vow to not restrict fracking makes that clear), marginally better on civil liberties but will certainly continue the crack down on Black Lives Matters and other protests.

He will do better on Covid and he will give States relief and not try and cut States off from money the way that Trump is doing if he doesn’t approve of State actions.

While Biden is better on the environment and climate change it’s not enough to change the trajectory of runaway climate change, and he does block the possibility of a good candidate for longer than Trump, since the presumptive next candidate is Kamala Harris.

Both Trump and Biden are senile, but Biden is more likely to let other people run things.

Trump has been doing a fairly significant purge of the civil service over the last year, Biden will end this, and I think that’s overall good. His neoliberal apparatchniks are bad, but they are better than Liberty U grads, though that’s the lowest bar imaginable.

Biden’s likely staffing makes clear this is status quo ante—back to Obama, perhaps a bit more progressive in certain areas.

Because Biden is just status quo ante, he will not change the conditions which lead to Trump, and the next Republican candidate is likely to be a disciplined right wing “populist” and far more dangerous than Trump

As for the campaign, both sides have engaged in voter suppression (Dems against Greens) but the Republicans have engaged in far more of it, and I consider this a red line.

Summary: Biden’s better for most Americans, but definitely not all. He buys people time to make preparations, where Trump will continue the slide much harder. Trump is probably better for non-Americans in countries America is likely to invade, but only marginally. Iranians, for example, will do better under Biden.

Personally if I were American I’d vote for Biden if I were in a swing state, and third party if in a non-swing state (most of them.) In terms of future political activity, I’d probably look into the Democratic Socialists of America; more of the serious activists I respect call that home now than any other party.

Results. There’s no question Republicans are planning on taking this to the courts, preventing ballots from being counted whenever possible and so on, so this may not be determined soon. If it isn’t a blow-out, Trump will declare victory (like Pete Buttigieg did) and fight it out.

As for who will win, polls favor Biden. If you want the argument that the polls are wrong, this is a good version.

I don’t know, I gave up election prediction a while back, I’m bad at it now that I follow politics closely. I do think the odds are with Biden. But if it’s marginal the Republicans will steal it unless Americans take the streets in DC and force them not to.

Best of luck to all, Americans and not. Neither Biden nor Trump will be a good President, but may the one who will do the least harm win.

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